精细化气象要素下输电线路覆冰预测预警研究
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摘要
南方地区冬季输电线路自然覆冰是线路运维难题和灾害预防课题,迫切需要提升该地区线路覆冰预测预警能力。文章在分析国内外输电线路覆冰预测模型及工程应用问题基础上,总结出精细化气象要素下基于统计-经验知识确定覆冰等级方法进而建立覆冰等级区划,再结合线路穿越自然环境的地形地貌及气象影响因素构建相应的具有较强泛化能力的输电覆冰预测预警模型,从而建立有效的线路覆冰预测预警工作机制。2年应用实践验证,该线路覆冰预测预警模型及工作机制能准确地预测预警线路覆冰状态及大幅提升线路覆冰灾害的预防能力和技术水平,从而为南方地区冬季预防和应对输电线路覆冰灾害提供技术手段,保障该地区输电线路在自然覆冰极端环境下稳定运行。
The natural icing of overhead lines in southern region is a maintenance problem and disaster prevention subject,and it is urgently needed to improve the prediction and warning ability of overhead line icing in this area. After the analysis to the worldwide icing prediction model of overhead line,this paper summarizes the icing levels method and icing grading division in refined meteorological elements based on the statistics-empirical knowledge,furthermore coupled with the terrain and landforms,and meteorological factors of natural environment to construct the corresponding icing grading model with stronger generalization ability,thereby establishes the efficient forecast and warning mechanisms of overhead line icing. The 2-year application validates that this model and working mechanism can accurately predict and warn the icing state of overhead line and greatly improve the capacity and technical level of icing disaster,so as to provide technical means for the prevention and response to the overhead line icing disaster in southern China in winter,and ensure the stable operation of overhead lines in the natural icing extreme environment in this area.
The natural icing of overhead lines in southern region is a maintenance problem and disaster prevention subject,and it is urgently needed to improve the prediction and warning ability of overhead line icing in this area. After the analysis to the worldwide icing prediction model of overhead line,this paper summarizes the icing levels method and icing grading division in refined meteorological elements based on the statistics-empirical knowledge,furthermore coupled with the terrain and landforms,and meteorological factors of natural environment to construct the corresponding icing grading model with stronger generalization ability,thereby establishes the efficient forecast and warning mechanisms of overhead line icing. The 2-year application validates that this model and working mechanism can accurately predict and warn the icing state of overhead line and greatly improve the capacity and technical level of icing disaster,so as to provide technical means for the prevention and response to the overhead line icing disaster in southern China in winter,and ensure the stable operation of overhead lines in the natural icing extreme environment in this area.
引文
[1]姚刚,朱灵子,贺先强.基于静态安全分析的直流融冰策略研究[J].贵州电力技术,2015,18(9):25-28.YAO Gang,ZHU Lingzi,HE Xianqiang.Research on the strategy to melting ice based on the static security analysis[J].Guizhou Electric Power Technology,2015,18(9):25-28.
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[3]王凌,高歌,张强,等.2008年1月我国大范围低温雨雪冰冻灾害分析Ⅰ.气候特征与影响评估[J].气象,2008,34(4):95-100.WANG Ling,GAO Ge,ZHANG Qiang,et al.Analysis of the severe cold surge,ice-snow and frozen disasters in south China during January 2008:I.climatic features and its impact[J].Meteorological Monthly,2008,34(4):95-100.
[4]姚瑶.基于网络输电能力的线路融冰组合确定方法及应用[J].贵州电力技术,2015,18(7):33-36.YAO Yao.The method to determine the line ice-melting group based on the network transmission capaceity and its application[J].Guizhou Electric Power Technology,2015,18(7):33-36.
[5]赵琳娜,马清云,杨贵名.2008年初我国低温雨雪冰冻对重点行业的影响及致灾成因分析[J].气候与环境研究,2008,13(4):557-562.ZHAO Linna,MA Qingyun,YANG Guiming.Disasters and its impact of a severe snow storm and freezing rain over southern China in January 2008[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2008,13(4):557-562.
[6]吴湘黔,彭赤,许良柱,等.固定式直流融冰装置在贵州输电线路的应用[J].贵州电力技术,2014,17(2):1-4.WU Xiangqian,PENG Chi,XU Liangzhu,et al.Application of permanent DC deicing device in Guizhou electric transmission line[J].Guizhou Electric Power Technology,2014,17(2):1-4.
[7]陆佳政,张红先,彭继文,等.基于皮尔逊Ⅲ型概率分布的湖南电网覆冰重现期计算[J].电工技术学报,2013,28(1):80-86.LU Jiazheng,ZHANG Hongxian,PENG Jiwen,et al.Calculation of Hunan Power Grid icing recurrence interval based on PearsonⅢtypeprobability distribution[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2013,28(1):80-86.
[8]IMAI I,Studies on Ice Accretion[J].Researches on Snow and Ice,1953,3(1):35-44.
[9]LENHARD RW.An indirect method for estimating the weight of glaze on wires[J].Bulletin American Meteorolgogical Society,1955,36(3):1-5.
[10]GOODWIN E,MOZER J,DIGIOIA A,et al.Predicting ice and snow loads for transmission line design[J].Predicting Ice&Snow Loads for Transmission Line Design,1983:267-273.
[11]蒋兴良,孙才新,顾乐观,等.三峡地区导线覆冰的特性及雾凇覆冰模型[J].重庆大学学报(自然科学版),1998,21(2):16-19.JIANG Xingliang,SUN Caixin,GU Leguan,et al.Power lines icing characteristics of the Three Gorges District and a model of the accumulation of ice on electricon electric power l Lines[J].Journal of Chongqing University(Natural Science Edition),1998,21(2):16-19.
[12]韩叶良,苏国锋,袁宏永,等.基于粗糙集的电网覆冰事故预警模型[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2010,12:1930-1933.HAN Yeliang,SU Guofeng,YUAN Hongyong,et al.Early-warning model for icing power grid accident based on rough set[J].Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology),2010,12:1930-1933.
[13]阳林,郝艳捧,黎卫国,等.输电线路覆冰与导线温度和微气象参数关联分析[J].高电压技术,2010,36(3):775-781.YANG Lin,HAO Yanpeng,LI Weiguo,et al.Relationships among transmission line icing,conductor temperature and local meteorology using grey relational analysis[J].High Voltage Engineering,2010,36(3):775-781.
[14]黄新波,李佳杰,欧阳丽莎.采用模糊逻辑理论的覆冰厚度预测模型[J].高电压技术,2011,37(5):1245-1252.HUANG Xinbo,LI Jiajie,OUYANG Lisha.Icing thickness prediction model using fuzzy logic theory[J].High Voltage Engineering,,2011,37(5):1245-1252.
[15]罗毅,姚毅,李莺.基于BP神经网络的输电线路覆冰增长模型研究[J].四川理工学院学报,2012,25(1):63-66.LUO Yi,YAO Yi,LI Ying.Study on transmission line ice accretion mode based on BP neural network[J].Journal of Sichuan University of Science&Engineering(Natural Science Edition),2012,25(1):63-66.
[16]刘胜波,阳林,郝艳捧,等.中国沿海地区电网覆冰灾害风险评估[J].广东电力,2017,30(12):1-6.LIU Shengbo,YANG Lin,HAO Yanpeng,et al.Risk assessment on Icing disasters to power grids in coastal areas of China[J].Guangdong Electric Power,2017,30(12):1-6.
[17]王一各,朱永灿,赵隆.覆冰导线临界融冰电流数值模拟分析[J].广东电力,2017,30(5):96-100.WANG Yige,ZHU Yongcan,ZHAO Long.Numerical simulation analysis on critical deicing current of iced conductor[J].Guangdong Electric Power,2017,30(5):96-100.
[2]刘和云.架空导线覆冰防冰的理论与应用[M].北京:中国铁道出版社,2001.
[3]王凌,高歌,张强,等.2008年1月我国大范围低温雨雪冰冻灾害分析Ⅰ.气候特征与影响评估[J].气象,2008,34(4):95-100.WANG Ling,GAO Ge,ZHANG Qiang,et al.Analysis of the severe cold surge,ice-snow and frozen disasters in south China during January 2008:I.climatic features and its impact[J].Meteorological Monthly,2008,34(4):95-100.
[4]姚瑶.基于网络输电能力的线路融冰组合确定方法及应用[J].贵州电力技术,2015,18(7):33-36.YAO Yao.The method to determine the line ice-melting group based on the network transmission capaceity and its application[J].Guizhou Electric Power Technology,2015,18(7):33-36.
[5]赵琳娜,马清云,杨贵名.2008年初我国低温雨雪冰冻对重点行业的影响及致灾成因分析[J].气候与环境研究,2008,13(4):557-562.ZHAO Linna,MA Qingyun,YANG Guiming.Disasters and its impact of a severe snow storm and freezing rain over southern China in January 2008[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2008,13(4):557-562.
[6]吴湘黔,彭赤,许良柱,等.固定式直流融冰装置在贵州输电线路的应用[J].贵州电力技术,2014,17(2):1-4.WU Xiangqian,PENG Chi,XU Liangzhu,et al.Application of permanent DC deicing device in Guizhou electric transmission line[J].Guizhou Electric Power Technology,2014,17(2):1-4.
[7]陆佳政,张红先,彭继文,等.基于皮尔逊Ⅲ型概率分布的湖南电网覆冰重现期计算[J].电工技术学报,2013,28(1):80-86.LU Jiazheng,ZHANG Hongxian,PENG Jiwen,et al.Calculation of Hunan Power Grid icing recurrence interval based on PearsonⅢtypeprobability distribution[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2013,28(1):80-86.
[8]IMAI I,Studies on Ice Accretion[J].Researches on Snow and Ice,1953,3(1):35-44.
[9]LENHARD RW.An indirect method for estimating the weight of glaze on wires[J].Bulletin American Meteorolgogical Society,1955,36(3):1-5.
[10]GOODWIN E,MOZER J,DIGIOIA A,et al.Predicting ice and snow loads for transmission line design[J].Predicting Ice&Snow Loads for Transmission Line Design,1983:267-273.
[11]蒋兴良,孙才新,顾乐观,等.三峡地区导线覆冰的特性及雾凇覆冰模型[J].重庆大学学报(自然科学版),1998,21(2):16-19.JIANG Xingliang,SUN Caixin,GU Leguan,et al.Power lines icing characteristics of the Three Gorges District and a model of the accumulation of ice on electricon electric power l Lines[J].Journal of Chongqing University(Natural Science Edition),1998,21(2):16-19.
[12]韩叶良,苏国锋,袁宏永,等.基于粗糙集的电网覆冰事故预警模型[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2010,12:1930-1933.HAN Yeliang,SU Guofeng,YUAN Hongyong,et al.Early-warning model for icing power grid accident based on rough set[J].Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology),2010,12:1930-1933.
[13]阳林,郝艳捧,黎卫国,等.输电线路覆冰与导线温度和微气象参数关联分析[J].高电压技术,2010,36(3):775-781.YANG Lin,HAO Yanpeng,LI Weiguo,et al.Relationships among transmission line icing,conductor temperature and local meteorology using grey relational analysis[J].High Voltage Engineering,2010,36(3):775-781.
[14]黄新波,李佳杰,欧阳丽莎.采用模糊逻辑理论的覆冰厚度预测模型[J].高电压技术,2011,37(5):1245-1252.HUANG Xinbo,LI Jiajie,OUYANG Lisha.Icing thickness prediction model using fuzzy logic theory[J].High Voltage Engineering,,2011,37(5):1245-1252.
[15]罗毅,姚毅,李莺.基于BP神经网络的输电线路覆冰增长模型研究[J].四川理工学院学报,2012,25(1):63-66.LUO Yi,YAO Yi,LI Ying.Study on transmission line ice accretion mode based on BP neural network[J].Journal of Sichuan University of Science&Engineering(Natural Science Edition),2012,25(1):63-66.
[16]刘胜波,阳林,郝艳捧,等.中国沿海地区电网覆冰灾害风险评估[J].广东电力,2017,30(12):1-6.LIU Shengbo,YANG Lin,HAO Yanpeng,et al.Risk assessment on Icing disasters to power grids in coastal areas of China[J].Guangdong Electric Power,2017,30(12):1-6.
[17]王一各,朱永灿,赵隆.覆冰导线临界融冰电流数值模拟分析[J].广东电力,2017,30(5):96-100.WANG Yige,ZHU Yongcan,ZHAO Long.Numerical simulation analysis on critical deicing current of iced conductor[J].Guangdong Electric Power,2017,30(5):96-100.