基于GIS的潜势度地质灾害预警预报模型研究——以浙江省温州市为例
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摘要
受台风和暴雨的影响,温州市地质灾害频发,是浙江省地质灾害最严重的地区。该文以温州市为例,提出基于GIS的潜势度地质灾害预警预报模型。该模型输入降雨因素和非降雨因素两大类变量。其中,非降雨因素采用潜势度描述点状预警单元发生地质灾害的潜在能力,根据地形、地貌和地质等非降雨因素的重要程度归结为无量纲的潜势度;降雨因素根据灾害和地域的不同,通过降雨阈值归结为无量纲的降雨等级。两类输入变量经过预警判据矩阵输出相应的预警级别,插值后形成由点状到面状的预警结果。系统预警预报模型采用潜势度模型,使用ArcObjects技术在ArcGIS地理信息系统中集成开发,提供预警计算结果表格、实时预警地图和预警短信等功能,大大提高了地质灾害预警和预报的精度,为地质灾害防灾工作提供了实时、可靠和科学的技术支持。
Wenzhou is the most serious geological hazard area in Zhejiang Province,with a large area of mountain,a frequent occurrence of geological hazards due to typhoons and rainstorms.In this paper,Wenzhou was taken as a case study for the potential degree index(PDI)model of the early warning system for geological hazards.The early warning model of geological hazards have two major categories of variables:the rainfall factors and the non-rainfall factors.The non-rainfall factors used the PDI to describe the potential probability in a point-shaped warning unit and were transformed to non-dimensional form of PDIs based on the terrain,geomorphology and geology of landslide or debris flow hazards.The rainfall factors applied rainfall thresholds to generate non-dimensional degree of rainfall.Finally,the above variables were inputted into a criterion matrix to generate the degree of early warning,and to give area-shaped warning results after interpolation.Applying the PDI model proposed in the paper,a GIS-based early warning system implemented by ArcObjects technique has been established to achieve a real-time prediction with susceptibility map,excel computation data and warning messages obtained as the output to help decision making in areas prone to geological hazards.
Wenzhou is the most serious geological hazard area in Zhejiang Province,with a large area of mountain,a frequent occurrence of geological hazards due to typhoons and rainstorms.In this paper,Wenzhou was taken as a case study for the potential degree index(PDI)model of the early warning system for geological hazards.The early warning model of geological hazards have two major categories of variables:the rainfall factors and the non-rainfall factors.The non-rainfall factors used the PDI to describe the potential probability in a point-shaped warning unit and were transformed to non-dimensional form of PDIs based on the terrain,geomorphology and geology of landslide or debris flow hazards.The rainfall factors applied rainfall thresholds to generate non-dimensional degree of rainfall.Finally,the above variables were inputted into a criterion matrix to generate the degree of early warning,and to give area-shaped warning results after interpolation.Applying the PDI model proposed in the paper,a GIS-based early warning system implemented by ArcObjects technique has been established to achieve a real-time prediction with susceptibility map,excel computation data and warning messages obtained as the output to help decision making in areas prone to geological hazards.
引文
[1]刘传正.中国崩塌滑坡泥石流灾害成因类型[J].地质论评,2014,60(4):858-868.
[2]刘艳辉,刘传正,温铭生,等.中国地质灾害气象预警模型研究[J].工程地质学报,2015,23(4):738-746.
[3]梁润娥,李中社,苗建高,等.区域地质灾害气象预警模型研究现状与展望[J].安全与环境工程,2013,20(1):30-35.
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[5]刘传正,李铁锋,程凌鹏,等.区域地质灾害评价预警的递进分析理论与方法[J].水文地质工程地质,2004,31(4):1-8.
[6]徐友宁,陈社斌,李育敬,等.陕西潼关金矿区泥石流潜势度评价[J].水文地质工程地质,2006,33(2):89-90.
[7]莫时雄,程峰,王杰光,等.典型金属矿山泥石流潜势度的模糊层次综合评判[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2009,20(2):41-45.
[8]焦赟,王得楷.滑坡发育潜势度的层次—模糊综合评判[J].甘肃科学学报,2012,24(3):51-55.
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[10]文光菊,邓文杰,杨乐,等.基于层次分析法的重庆山区矿山泥石流潜势度评价[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2017,28(2):92-96.
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[12]小杉賢一朗,三道義己,藤本将光,等.関数モデルを用いた深層崩壊の要因となる基岩地下水位変動の解析[J].砂防学会誌,2014,66(6):3-4.
[13]本田尚正,加藤尚,笠井麻依子.降雨起因の表層崩壊と地質との関係——宮崎県下の2007年台風4号,5号による土砂災害を事例として[J].砂防学会誌,2014,66(6):25-30.
[14]唐亚明,张茂省,薛强,等.滑坡监测预警国内外研究现状及评述[J].地质论评,2012,58(3):533-541.
[15]刘东燕,侯龙,伍川生,等.美国地质灾害防治现状综述[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2011,22(2):119-124.
[16]蒋建,赵晓东,陈阳.基于GIS的任意形状工作面预测概率积分算法研究[J].计算机应用研究,2015,32(12):3673-3676.
[17]胡继华,钟广鹏,严国灿.基于GIS的动态应急资源调度系统设计与实现[J].计算机应用研究,2012,29(1):200-202.
[18]向万里,马寿峰,钟石泉.基于GIS的城市道路交通流信息发布系统应用研究[J].计算机应用研究,2011,28(6):2120-2122.
[19]王万平.基于GIS的地质灾害危险性预警系统研究[J].地理信息世界,2013(3):86-88.
[20]武利.基于SINMAP模型的区域滑坡危险性定量评估及模型验证[J].地理与地理信息科学,2012,28(2):35-39.
[21]曾忠平,付小林,刘雪梅,等.GIS支持下滑坡斜坡类型定量化及制图研究[J].地理与地理信息科学,2006,22(1):22-25.
[22]何易平,马泽忠,谢洪,等.基于GIS的土地利用类型与山地灾害敏感性分析——以云南省昆明市东川区为例[J].水土保持学报,2004,18(4):177-181.
[23]GUPTA R P,JOSHI B C.Landslide hazard zoning using the GIS approach-A case study from the Ramganga Catchment,Himalayas[J].Engineering Geology,2004,28(1-2):119-131.
[24]周明浪,邵新民,罗美芳.浙江温州滑坡地质灾害预警方法及应用[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2014,25(2):90-97.
[2]刘艳辉,刘传正,温铭生,等.中国地质灾害气象预警模型研究[J].工程地质学报,2015,23(4):738-746.
[3]梁润娥,李中社,苗建高,等.区域地质灾害气象预警模型研究现状与展望[J].安全与环境工程,2013,20(1):30-35.
[4]刘传正,刘艳辉.地质灾害区域预警原理与显式预警系统设计研究[J].水文地质工程地质,2007,34(6):109-115.
[5]刘传正,李铁锋,程凌鹏,等.区域地质灾害评价预警的递进分析理论与方法[J].水文地质工程地质,2004,31(4):1-8.
[6]徐友宁,陈社斌,李育敬,等.陕西潼关金矿区泥石流潜势度评价[J].水文地质工程地质,2006,33(2):89-90.
[7]莫时雄,程峰,王杰光,等.典型金属矿山泥石流潜势度的模糊层次综合评判[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2009,20(2):41-45.
[8]焦赟,王得楷.滑坡发育潜势度的层次—模糊综合评判[J].甘肃科学学报,2012,24(3):51-55.
[9]朱小龙,马佰衡,李玉龙.河北省山区突发性地质灾害潜势度研究[J].河北地质,2012(3):39-40.
[10]文光菊,邓文杰,杨乐,等.基于层次分析法的重庆山区矿山泥石流潜势度评价[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2017,28(2):92-96.
[11]GUZZETTI F,CARDINALI M,REICHENBACH P,et al.Landslides triggered by the 23November 2000rainfall event in the Imperia Province,Western Liguria,Italy[J].Engineering Geology,2004,73(3):229-245.
[12]小杉賢一朗,三道義己,藤本将光,等.関数モデルを用いた深層崩壊の要因となる基岩地下水位変動の解析[J].砂防学会誌,2014,66(6):3-4.
[13]本田尚正,加藤尚,笠井麻依子.降雨起因の表層崩壊と地質との関係——宮崎県下の2007年台風4号,5号による土砂災害を事例として[J].砂防学会誌,2014,66(6):25-30.
[14]唐亚明,张茂省,薛强,等.滑坡监测预警国内外研究现状及评述[J].地质论评,2012,58(3):533-541.
[15]刘东燕,侯龙,伍川生,等.美国地质灾害防治现状综述[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2011,22(2):119-124.
[16]蒋建,赵晓东,陈阳.基于GIS的任意形状工作面预测概率积分算法研究[J].计算机应用研究,2015,32(12):3673-3676.
[17]胡继华,钟广鹏,严国灿.基于GIS的动态应急资源调度系统设计与实现[J].计算机应用研究,2012,29(1):200-202.
[18]向万里,马寿峰,钟石泉.基于GIS的城市道路交通流信息发布系统应用研究[J].计算机应用研究,2011,28(6):2120-2122.
[19]王万平.基于GIS的地质灾害危险性预警系统研究[J].地理信息世界,2013(3):86-88.
[20]武利.基于SINMAP模型的区域滑坡危险性定量评估及模型验证[J].地理与地理信息科学,2012,28(2):35-39.
[21]曾忠平,付小林,刘雪梅,等.GIS支持下滑坡斜坡类型定量化及制图研究[J].地理与地理信息科学,2006,22(1):22-25.
[22]何易平,马泽忠,谢洪,等.基于GIS的土地利用类型与山地灾害敏感性分析——以云南省昆明市东川区为例[J].水土保持学报,2004,18(4):177-181.
[23]GUPTA R P,JOSHI B C.Landslide hazard zoning using the GIS approach-A case study from the Ramganga Catchment,Himalayas[J].Engineering Geology,2004,28(1-2):119-131.
[24]周明浪,邵新民,罗美芳.浙江温州滑坡地质灾害预警方法及应用[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2014,25(2):90-97.