内蒙古马铃薯秋霜冻灾害风险区划研究
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摘要
以内蒙古80个旗县气象站1961-2015年气象观测数据、社会经济数据及地理信息数据等为基础资料,构建内蒙古马铃薯秋霜冻致灾因子危险性指数,结合承载体的脆弱性、暴露度和防灾减灾能力,采用风险指数法、加权综合评价等方法,依托GIS软件对内蒙古马铃薯秋霜冻灾害进行分析和评价,完成风险区划。结果表明,内蒙古马铃薯秋霜冻灾害的高风险区主要分布在包头市南部、呼和浩特市北部、乌兰察布市中北部、锡林郭勒盟西南部、赤峰市西北部、兴安盟中北部及呼伦贝尔市大部农区,所占农区面积比例为17. 1%;次高风险区主要分布在包头市西南部、呼和浩特市南部、乌兰察布市南部、锡林郭勒盟南部、兴安盟中部及呼伦贝尔市东部地区,所占面积比例为28. 5%;中风险区主要分布在鄂尔多斯东北部、赤峰市西部和北部、兴安盟东部地区,所占面积比例为18. 1%;低风险区主要分布在巴彦淖尔市南部和东部、鄂尔多斯市东部、赤峰市东部、通辽市大部地区,所占面积比例为36. 2%。
Based on meteorological observation data,socio-economic data and geographic information data from 1961 to 2015 in 80 Banner site stations in Inner Mongolia,the authors built the evaluation index system by determining the risk index of factors causing potato autumn frost disaster and combining the vulnerability of hazard bearing body,the exposure and the prevention and mitigation ability of disaster,by the method of disaster risk index and weighted composite score,and then carried out risk assessment and regionalization of potato autumn frost disaster on GIS. The results show that: the high risk of potato autumn frost disaster in Inner Mongolia is mainly distributed in the southern of Baotou City,the northern of Hohhot City,the north-central of Wulanchabu City,the southwestern of Xilingol League,the northwestern of Chifeng City,and the north-central of Xingan League. Most of the agricultural areas in Hulunbeier City,the area ratio of the high risk areas was 17. 1 %; The sub-high-risk areas are mainly distributed in the southwestern of Baotou City,the southern of Hohhot City,the southern of Ulanqab City,the southern of Xilingol League,the central of Xingan League,and the eastern of Hulunbeier City,the area ratio of the sub-high-risk areaswas 28. 5 % of the area; The medium-risk areas are mainly distributed in the northeast of Ordos,the West and north of Chifeng City,and the eastern part of Xingan League,the area ratio of the medium-risk areas was 18. 1 % of the area; The low-risk areas are mainly distributed in the southern and eastern of Bayannaoer City,the eastern of Ordos City,the eastern of Chifeng City,and most of Tongliao City,the area ratio of the low-risk areas was 36. 2 % of the area.
Based on meteorological observation data,socio-economic data and geographic information data from 1961 to 2015 in 80 Banner site stations in Inner Mongolia,the authors built the evaluation index system by determining the risk index of factors causing potato autumn frost disaster and combining the vulnerability of hazard bearing body,the exposure and the prevention and mitigation ability of disaster,by the method of disaster risk index and weighted composite score,and then carried out risk assessment and regionalization of potato autumn frost disaster on GIS. The results show that: the high risk of potato autumn frost disaster in Inner Mongolia is mainly distributed in the southern of Baotou City,the northern of Hohhot City,the north-central of Wulanchabu City,the southwestern of Xilingol League,the northwestern of Chifeng City,and the north-central of Xingan League. Most of the agricultural areas in Hulunbeier City,the area ratio of the high risk areas was 17. 1 %; The sub-high-risk areas are mainly distributed in the southwestern of Baotou City,the southern of Hohhot City,the southern of Ulanqab City,the southern of Xilingol League,the central of Xingan League,and the eastern of Hulunbeier City,the area ratio of the sub-high-risk areaswas 28. 5 % of the area; The medium-risk areas are mainly distributed in the northeast of Ordos,the West and north of Chifeng City,and the eastern part of Xingan League,the area ratio of the medium-risk areas was 18. 1 % of the area; The low-risk areas are mainly distributed in the southern and eastern of Bayannaoer City,the eastern of Ordos City,the eastern of Chifeng City,and most of Tongliao City,the area ratio of the low-risk areas was 36. 2 % of the area.
引文
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[2]王晾晾,杨晓强,李帅,等.东北地区水稻霜冻灾害风险评估与区划[J].气象与环境学报,2012,28(5):40-45.
[3]包云轩,王莹,高苹,等.江苏省冬小麦春霜冻害发生规律及其气候风险区划[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(1):134-141.
[4]顾万龙,姬兴杰,朱业玉,等.河南省冬小麦晚霜冻害风险区划[J].灾害学,2012,27(3):39-44.
[5]陈凯奇,米娜.辽宁省玉米低温冷害和霜冻灾害风险评估[J].气象与环境学报,2016,32(1):89-94.
[6]严应存,周秉荣,陈国茜. 1961-2010年青海省霜冻灾害变化特征及风险区划[J].气象科技,2015,43(5):986-991
[7]李红英,张晓煜,曹宁,等.基于GIS的宁夏晚霜冻灾风险评估与区划[J].自然灾害学报,2014,24(2):167-173.
[8]朱红蕊,于宏敏,姚俊英,等.黑龙江省水稻初霜冻灾害致灾因子危险性分析[J].灾害学,2012,27(2):96-99.
[9]姚俊英,于宏敏,朱红蕊,等.黑龙江省玉米初霜冻致灾临界气象条件风险区划[J].中国农学通报,2012,28(11):312-316.
[10]李祎君,王春乙.东北地区玉米低温冷害综合指标研究[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(6):15-20.
[11]张倩,赵艳霞,王春乙.我国主要农业气象灾害指标研究进展[J].自然灾害学报,2010,18(6):40-54.
[12]姜丽霞,李帅,南瑞,等.东北玉米低温冷害监测预测系统———在黑龙江省的应用[J].自然灾害学报,2010,18(1):132-135.
[13]张继权,李宁.主要气象灾害风险评价与管理的数量化方法及其应用[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社,2007:346-349.
[14]章国材,气象灾害风险评估与区划方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2010:22-31.
[15]黄崇福.自然灾害风险评价理论与实践[M].北京:科学出版社,2005:130-134.
[16]刘晶淼,丁裕国,张文宗,等.农业气候资源与灾害评估及其区划研究[M].北京:气象出版社,2012:69-70.
[17]唐为安,田红,杨元建,等.基于GIS的低温冷冻灾害风险区划研究———以安徽省为例[J].地理科学,2012,32(3):356-36
[18]王素艳,霍治国,李世奎,等.北方冬小麦干旱灾害区划[J].作物学报,2005,31(3):267-274.
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