基于GIS和AHP的雷电灾害风险区划分析与评估──以内蒙古雷灾为例
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摘要
基于自然灾害风险理论,利用雷暴日和闪电定位资料、基础地理信息资料、社会经济资料以及雷电灾情资料,选取地形变化、水系、土壤电导率、雷暴日、地闪密度、土地利用、人均GDP、敏感单位防雷能力等11个指标,运用层次分析法构建了雷电灾害风险指数,建立雷电灾害风险评估模型,从雷电灾害的致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体和防灾减灾能力4个方面进行了系统的分析,并运用ArcGIS进行了1 km×1 km雷电灾害综合风险区划。区划结果表明内蒙古东部大部和中部南部地区属于高风险区,中部北部地区属于中风险区,低风险区域主要分布在西部地区。通过选取雷灾资料进行雷电灾害的灰色关联评估,以验证区划结果的正确性,评估结果与雷电灾害风险区划分布大体一致。
Based on the theory of natural disaster risk, 11 indexes, such as terrain change, water system, soil conductivity, thunderstorm day, cloud-ground lightning density, land use, per capita GDP, and lightning protection ability of sensitive units, were selected from thunderstorm day and lightning location data, basic geographic information data, social economic data and lightning disaster data. The risk index of lightning disaster was constructed by analytic hierarchy process(AHP), and the risk assessment model of lightning disaster was set up. The systematic analysis was made from 4 aspects of lightning disaster factors, pregnancy disaster environment, disaster bearing body and disaster prevention and reduction ability, and the comprehensive risk zoning of 1 km×1 km lightning disaster was carried out by ArcGIS. The results showed that most of the eastern Inner Mongolia and the southern parts of central Inner Mongolia belonged to the high risk area, the northern part of the central Inner Mongolia belonged to the middle risk area, and the low risk area was mainly distributed in the western region. In order to verify the correctness of the regionalization results, the lightning disaster data were selected for the grey correlation evaluation of the lightning disaster, the assessment results were consistent with the distribution of lightning disaster risk regionalization.
Based on the theory of natural disaster risk, 11 indexes, such as terrain change, water system, soil conductivity, thunderstorm day, cloud-ground lightning density, land use, per capita GDP, and lightning protection ability of sensitive units, were selected from thunderstorm day and lightning location data, basic geographic information data, social economic data and lightning disaster data. The risk index of lightning disaster was constructed by analytic hierarchy process(AHP), and the risk assessment model of lightning disaster was set up. The systematic analysis was made from 4 aspects of lightning disaster factors, pregnancy disaster environment, disaster bearing body and disaster prevention and reduction ability, and the comprehensive risk zoning of 1 km×1 km lightning disaster was carried out by ArcGIS. The results showed that most of the eastern Inner Mongolia and the southern parts of central Inner Mongolia belonged to the high risk area, the northern part of the central Inner Mongolia belonged to the middle risk area, and the low risk area was mainly distributed in the western region. In order to verify the correctness of the regionalization results, the lightning disaster data were selected for the grey correlation evaluation of the lightning disaster, the assessment results were consistent with the distribution of lightning disaster risk regionalization.
引文
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[13]殷娴,肖稳安,冯民学,等.区域雷灾分布特征及易损度区划[J].气象科技,2009,37(2):216-220.
[14]刘垚,包云轩,缪启龙,等.杭州市雷电灾害风险区划及分析[J].西北师范大学学报:自然科学版,2014,50(03):99-105.
[15]程向阳,谢五三,王凯,等.雷电灾害风险区划方法研究及其在安徽省的应用[J].气象科学,2012,32(01):80-85.
[16]任鲁川.灾害损失等级划分的模糊灾度判别法[J].自然灾害学报,1996,5(8):13-17.
[17]杨仕升.自然灾害等级划分及灾情比较模型探讨[J].地理科学进展,1997(1):9-13.
[18]陈亚宁,杨思全.自然灾害的灰色关联灾情评估模型及应用研究[J].地理科学进展,1996,18(2):158-162.
[19]章国材.自然灾害风险评估与区划原理和方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2014:1-81.
[20] QX/T 103—2017,雷电灾害调查技术规范[S].
[21] GB 50057—2010,建筑物防雷设计规范[S].
[22] GB/T 21010—2007,土地利用现状分类[S].
[2]刘晓东,张其林,冯旭宇,等.内蒙古地区雷暴活动特征分析[J].自然灾害学报,2010,19(2):119-124.
[3]冯旭宇,薛胜军,巴特尔,等.高纬高原雷暴气候特征及变化规律[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(6):176-181.
[4]刘晓东,冯旭宇,卢士庆,等.神州飞船发射与回收场雷暴活动特征[J].内蒙古大学学报,2010,41(4):475-480.
[5]刘晓东,李松如,冯旭宇,等.内蒙古雷灾特征及灾情的灰色关联评估[J].安全与环境学报,2012,12(5):251-255.
[6]刘晓东,冯旭宇,宋昊泽,等.内蒙古地区雷电活动及雷灾特征分析[J].灾害学,2016,31(1):60-65.
[7]郭虎,熊亚军,扈海波.北京市雷电灾害灾情综合评估模式[J].灾害学,2008, 23(1):14-17.
[8]郭虎,熊亚军.北京市雷电灾害易损性分析、评估及易损度区划[J].应用气象学报,2008,19(1):35-39.
[9]李家启,申双和,秦健,等.重庆市雷电灾害易损性风险综合评估与区划[J].西南大学学报,2011,33(1):96-102.
[10]李彩莲,赵东,赵西社.陕西省雷电灾害易损性分析、评估及易损度区划[J].灾害学,2008,23(4):49-52.
[11]王惠,邓勇,尹丽云.云南省雷电灾害易损性分析及区划[J].气象,2007,33(12):83-87.
[12]尹娜,肖稳安.雷灾易损性分析、评估及易损度区划[J].热带气象学报,2005,21(4):441-449.
[13]殷娴,肖稳安,冯民学,等.区域雷灾分布特征及易损度区划[J].气象科技,2009,37(2):216-220.
[14]刘垚,包云轩,缪启龙,等.杭州市雷电灾害风险区划及分析[J].西北师范大学学报:自然科学版,2014,50(03):99-105.
[15]程向阳,谢五三,王凯,等.雷电灾害风险区划方法研究及其在安徽省的应用[J].气象科学,2012,32(01):80-85.
[16]任鲁川.灾害损失等级划分的模糊灾度判别法[J].自然灾害学报,1996,5(8):13-17.
[17]杨仕升.自然灾害等级划分及灾情比较模型探讨[J].地理科学进展,1997(1):9-13.
[18]陈亚宁,杨思全.自然灾害的灰色关联灾情评估模型及应用研究[J].地理科学进展,1996,18(2):158-162.
[19]章国材.自然灾害风险评估与区划原理和方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2014:1-81.
[20] QX/T 103—2017,雷电灾害调查技术规范[S].
[21] GB 50057—2010,建筑物防雷设计规范[S].
[22] GB/T 21010—2007,土地利用现状分类[S].
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