基于风险评估的配电设备状态检修决策方法
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摘要
针对当前配电系统定期运维存在的实时性差、运维资源分配不合理的问题,提出了一种依据配电设备实时健康状态评价与风险评估结果合理分配运维资源的状态检修决策方法。首先依据配电设备状态评价结果计算设备健康度指数,利用指数模型计算配电设备的实时故障率;进而采用"馈线分区法"计算整个配电网中所有设备的平均实时故障率;最后依据每个设备的风险损失成本,计算各设备相对风险成本,据此指标确定不同设备的运维方式与运维顺序,制定差异化运维策略。通过算例验证了所提模型的有效性。
Aiming at the problems in the existing distribution system,such as poor real-time performance and unreasonable allocation of operation and maintenance resources,a condition-based maintenance decision-making method based on real-time health status assessment and risk assessment result is proposed. First,an equipment health index is calculated according to the status assessment results of distribution equipment,and the real-time failure rate of distribution equipment is calculated using an exponential model. Then,the average real-time failure rates of all equipment in the distribution network are calculated using the feeder partition method,the importance degree of equipment is determined by the loss cost of failed equipment assets,including the loss cost of users due to power outage,equipment cost,and environmental loss cost. Finally,according to the risk loss cost of each equipment,the relative risk cost of each equipment is calculated,thus the modes and order of operation and maintenance of different equipment are determined accordingly. In this way,a differentiated operation and maintenance strategy is formulated,and the effectiveness of the proposed model is verified through a numerical example.
Aiming at the problems in the existing distribution system,such as poor real-time performance and unreasonable allocation of operation and maintenance resources,a condition-based maintenance decision-making method based on real-time health status assessment and risk assessment result is proposed. First,an equipment health index is calculated according to the status assessment results of distribution equipment,and the real-time failure rate of distribution equipment is calculated using an exponential model. Then,the average real-time failure rates of all equipment in the distribution network are calculated using the feeder partition method,the importance degree of equipment is determined by the loss cost of failed equipment assets,including the loss cost of users due to power outage,equipment cost,and environmental loss cost. Finally,according to the risk loss cost of each equipment,the relative risk cost of each equipment is calculated,thus the modes and order of operation and maintenance of different equipment are determined accordingly. In this way,a differentiated operation and maintenance strategy is formulated,and the effectiveness of the proposed model is verified through a numerical example.
引文
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[14]张彪,王渝红,李兴源,等(Zhang Biao,Wang Yuhong,Li Xingyuan,et al).高压直流输电设备状态评价专家系统研究(Research on expert system for condition evaluation of HVDC transmission equipments)[J].计算机工程与设计(Computer engineering and design),2014,35(2):690-694.
[15]李珊,欧世锋,李克文,等(Li Shan,Ou Shifeng,Li Kewen,et al).基于配电设备状态评价的差异化运维策略(Differentiation operation and maintenance strategy based on state evaluation of distribution equipment)[J].广西电力(Guangxi Power System),2017,40(5):21-27.
[16]黄曌,汪沨,谭阳红(Huang Zhao,Wang Feng,Tan Yanghong).基于健康度和重要度的配电网运行风险评估方法(Operational risk assessment based on health and importance indexes for distribution network)[J].电力自动化设备(Electric Power Automation Equipment),2016,36(6):136-141.
[17]许沛东(Xu Peidong).多维因素影响下的输电线路长期差异化运维策略研究(Research on Long Term Differential Operation and Maintenance Strategy of Transmission Lines under Multidimensional Factors)[D].武汉:武汉大学电气与自动化学院(Whhan:School of Electrical Engineering and Automation,Wuhan University),2018.
[18]许沛东,方华亮,王海鸣,等(Xu Peidong,Fang Hualiang,Wang Haiming,et al).基于风险评估与灵敏度聚类的输电线路逐级运维策略(Strategy of gradual operation and maintenance of transmission lines based on risk assessment and sensitivity clustering)[J].电网技术(Power System Technology),2018,42(9):3024-3032.
[19]Q/CSG210015-2014,南方电网公司配网缺陷定级标准和缺陷库模块化成果(2015版)[S].
[20]彭建春,何禹清,周卓敏,等(Peng Jianchun,He Yuqing,Zhou Zhuomin,et al).基于可靠性指标逆流传递和顺流归并的配电网可靠性评估(Distribution system reliability evaluation based on up-stream delivering and downstream merging of reliability indices)[J].中国电机工程学报(Proceedings of the CSEE),2010,30(1):40-46.
[21]罗凤章,杨文涛,张天宇,等(Luo Fengzhang,Yang Wentao,Zhang Tianyu,et al).配电自动化数据传输有误对配电系统供电可靠性的影响(Influence of distribution automation data transmission errors on power supply reliability of distribution system)[J].电力系统自动化(Automation of Electric Power Systems),2018,42(19):10-17.
[22]史常凯,宁昕,孙智涛,等(Shi Changkai,Ning Xin,Sun Zhitao,et al).基于设备实时健康指数的配电网风险量化评估(Quantitative risk assessment of distribution network based on real-time health index of equipment)[J].高电压技术(High Voltage Engineering),2018,44(2):534-540.
[23]郇嘉嘉(Huan Jiajia).电网设备状态检修策略的研究(Research on Condition Based Maintenance Strategy for Power Grid Equipment)[D].广州:华南理工大学电力学院(Guangzhou:School of Electric Power,South China University of Technology),2012.
[2]Billinton R,Wang P.Reliability-network-equivalent approach to distribution-system-reliability evaluation[J].IEEproceedings-Generation,Transmission and Distribution,1998,145(2):149-153.
[3]杨德尚,洪海生,李绮琳,等(Yang Deshang,Hong Haisheng,Li Qilin,et al).基于综合评分法的配网自动化终端差异化巡视策略(Comprehensive scoring based on grading operation and maintenance strategy for distribution terminal unit)[J].广东电力(Guangdong Power System),2016,29(4):84-88.
[4]卞建鹏,杨苏,高世闯,等(Bian Jianpeng,Yang Su,Gao Shichuang,et al).基于全寿命周期成本的电力变压器检修决策(Maintenance decision of power transformer based on life cycle cost)[EB/OL].http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/12.1251.TM.20180905.1333.018.html,2018.
[5]陈青松,王彦东,李华(Chen Qingsong,Wang Yandong,Li Hua).基于风险评估的变电设备差异化运维策略研究(Research on differential operation and maintenance strategy of substation equipment based on risk assessment)[J].中国电业(China Electricity Industry),2015(12):153-156.
[6]刘亚伟(Liu Yawei).计及风险的城市中压配电网规划决策(Urban Mid-Voltage Distribution Network Planning Decisions Considering the RiskAssessment)[D].吉林:东北电力大学电气工程学院(Jilin:School of Electrical Engineering,Northeast Dianli University),2017.
[7]刘琦(Liu Qi).主动配电系统安全态势感知建模方法研究(Research on Modeling Method of Safety Situation Awareness in Active Distribution System)[D].北京:华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院(Beijing:School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,North China Electric Power University),2017.
[8]熊飞,董蓓蓓,李更丰(Xiong Fei,Dong Beibei,Li Gengfeng).含间歇性分布式电源的配电系统风险评估(Risk evaluation of distribution system with stochastic distributed generator)[J].电力系统自动化(Automation of Electric Power Systems),2016,40(12):62-67.
[9]Levitin G,Mazal-Tov S,Elmakis D.Optimum switch allocation in electric distribution system by genetic algorithm[J].Electric Power Systems,1994,31:97-102.
[10]谢开贵,刘柏私,赵渊,等(Xie Kaigui,Liu Baisi,Zhao Yuan,et al).配电网开关优化配置的动态规划算法(Placement of optimal switching devices in radial electrical distribution networks based on dynamic programming)[J].中国电机工程学报(Proceedings of the CSEE),2005,25(11):29-34.
[11]Billinton R,Jonnavithula S.Optimal switching device placement in radial distribution system[J].IEEE Trans on Power Delivery,1996,11(3):1646-1651.
[12]周承科,李明贞,王航,等(Zhou Chengke,Li Mingzhen,Wang Hang,et al).电力电缆资产的状态评估与运维决策综述(Review of condition state assessment and maintenance strategy of power cable assets)[J].高电压技术(High Voltage Engineering),2016,42(8):2353-2362.
[13]许修乐(Xu Xiule).考虑设备老化及运行状态的变压器可靠性评估(Transformer Reliability Assessment Considering Equipment Aging and Running Status)[D].合肥:合肥工业大学电气与自动化工程学院(Hefei:School of Electrical Engineering and Automation,Hefei University of Technology),2017.
[14]张彪,王渝红,李兴源,等(Zhang Biao,Wang Yuhong,Li Xingyuan,et al).高压直流输电设备状态评价专家系统研究(Research on expert system for condition evaluation of HVDC transmission equipments)[J].计算机工程与设计(Computer engineering and design),2014,35(2):690-694.
[15]李珊,欧世锋,李克文,等(Li Shan,Ou Shifeng,Li Kewen,et al).基于配电设备状态评价的差异化运维策略(Differentiation operation and maintenance strategy based on state evaluation of distribution equipment)[J].广西电力(Guangxi Power System),2017,40(5):21-27.
[16]黄曌,汪沨,谭阳红(Huang Zhao,Wang Feng,Tan Yanghong).基于健康度和重要度的配电网运行风险评估方法(Operational risk assessment based on health and importance indexes for distribution network)[J].电力自动化设备(Electric Power Automation Equipment),2016,36(6):136-141.
[17]许沛东(Xu Peidong).多维因素影响下的输电线路长期差异化运维策略研究(Research on Long Term Differential Operation and Maintenance Strategy of Transmission Lines under Multidimensional Factors)[D].武汉:武汉大学电气与自动化学院(Whhan:School of Electrical Engineering and Automation,Wuhan University),2018.
[18]许沛东,方华亮,王海鸣,等(Xu Peidong,Fang Hualiang,Wang Haiming,et al).基于风险评估与灵敏度聚类的输电线路逐级运维策略(Strategy of gradual operation and maintenance of transmission lines based on risk assessment and sensitivity clustering)[J].电网技术(Power System Technology),2018,42(9):3024-3032.
[19]Q/CSG210015-2014,南方电网公司配网缺陷定级标准和缺陷库模块化成果(2015版)[S].
[20]彭建春,何禹清,周卓敏,等(Peng Jianchun,He Yuqing,Zhou Zhuomin,et al).基于可靠性指标逆流传递和顺流归并的配电网可靠性评估(Distribution system reliability evaluation based on up-stream delivering and downstream merging of reliability indices)[J].中国电机工程学报(Proceedings of the CSEE),2010,30(1):40-46.
[21]罗凤章,杨文涛,张天宇,等(Luo Fengzhang,Yang Wentao,Zhang Tianyu,et al).配电自动化数据传输有误对配电系统供电可靠性的影响(Influence of distribution automation data transmission errors on power supply reliability of distribution system)[J].电力系统自动化(Automation of Electric Power Systems),2018,42(19):10-17.
[22]史常凯,宁昕,孙智涛,等(Shi Changkai,Ning Xin,Sun Zhitao,et al).基于设备实时健康指数的配电网风险量化评估(Quantitative risk assessment of distribution network based on real-time health index of equipment)[J].高电压技术(High Voltage Engineering),2018,44(2):534-540.
[23]郇嘉嘉(Huan Jiajia).电网设备状态检修策略的研究(Research on Condition Based Maintenance Strategy for Power Grid Equipment)[D].广州:华南理工大学电力学院(Guangzhou:School of Electric Power,South China University of Technology),2012.