内蒙古地区1960-2016年气温和降水特征及突变
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摘要
利用内蒙古地区1960—2016年45个气象站的逐月气温和降水量数据,通过线性倾向估计、径向基函数插值法、累积距平、滑动t检验、Mann-Kendall法和小波分析,研究了内蒙古气温和降水量的时空变化特征和突变现象。结果表明:内蒙古近57年来气温呈显著上升趋势,明显高于全球年均温增温率,达0.38℃/10 a,且在1987年发生增温突变;四季气温中,春季和冬季均温升高对年均温上升贡献度最大;年均温和季均温年代际变化呈明显的增暖趋势,年均温、季均温在1990—1999年开始变暖;内蒙古年均温和增温率二者分布规律相同,即:东部<中部<西部。内蒙古年降水量呈不显著上升趋势,年降水量倾向率自西向东呈现出增—减—增的趋势,降水量最少的年代为2000—2009年,降水量最多的年代为1990—1999年,降水量增率为0.47 mm/10 a,且在1999年发生由丰水到枯水、2011年发生由枯水到丰水的两次突变;两季降水量中,内蒙古雨季降水量呈减少趋势,非雨季降水量呈增加趋势,且增加量和减少量均为东部>中部>西部。小波分析显示,1960—2016年内蒙古年均温变化以15 a的周期为最强;年降水量变化以11 a的周期为最强。通过以上分析,1960—2016年内蒙古气候正在由暖干化向暖湿化转型。
Based on monthly temperature and precipitation data from 45 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia from 1960 to 2016, various methods such as Linear Tendency Estimation, Radial Basis Function Interpolation, Cumulative Anomaly, Sliding t-test, Mann-Kendall Method and Wavelet Analysis were used to explore the temporal and spatial variation characteristics related to the abrupt changes of temperature and precipitation in Inner Mongolia over a 57-year period. The results showed that during the 57 year period the temperature in Inner Mongolia had presented the significant upward trend, which was significantly higher than the global average annual temperature increase rate, and reached up to 0.38 Celsius per decade. An abnormal temperature increase occurred in 1987. Of the four seasons, the average temperature rise in spring and winter contributed the most to the annual average temperature rise. The interannual variation of annual average and seasonal average temperature showed a significant warming trend, and the annual and seasonal average temperature began to increase in the period 1990—1999. The average annual temperature and the temperature increase rate in Inner Mongolia followed the same pattern which was the highest in the west, followed by the middle, and the lowest in the east. The annual precipitation showed no significant upward trend in Inner Mongolia. The annual precipitation propensity rate showed the increase-decrease-increase trend from west to east. The periods with the least amount of precipitation were found during the period from 2000 to 2009, and the periods with the most precipitation were observed in the period 1990—1999. The precipitation increase rate was 0.47 mm per decade and there were two mutations. In 1999, precipitation changed from abundant water to lack of water and in 2011, from lack-of-water to abundant water. The precipitation in the rainy season showed the decreasing trend, and the increasing trend in the dry season. The amounts of increase and decrease were the greatest in the east, followed by the middle, and the lowest in the west. Based on the wavelet analysis, the average annual temperature change in Inner Mongolia from 1960 to 2016 was the strongest in the period of 15 years; the annual precipitation change was the strongest in the 11-year cycle. This study draws the conclusion that the climate was transforming from warm-drying to warming-humidification in Inner Mongolia from 1960 to 2016.
Based on monthly temperature and precipitation data from 45 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia from 1960 to 2016, various methods such as Linear Tendency Estimation, Radial Basis Function Interpolation, Cumulative Anomaly, Sliding t-test, Mann-Kendall Method and Wavelet Analysis were used to explore the temporal and spatial variation characteristics related to the abrupt changes of temperature and precipitation in Inner Mongolia over a 57-year period. The results showed that during the 57 year period the temperature in Inner Mongolia had presented the significant upward trend, which was significantly higher than the global average annual temperature increase rate, and reached up to 0.38 Celsius per decade. An abnormal temperature increase occurred in 1987. Of the four seasons, the average temperature rise in spring and winter contributed the most to the annual average temperature rise. The interannual variation of annual average and seasonal average temperature showed a significant warming trend, and the annual and seasonal average temperature began to increase in the period 1990—1999. The average annual temperature and the temperature increase rate in Inner Mongolia followed the same pattern which was the highest in the west, followed by the middle, and the lowest in the east. The annual precipitation showed no significant upward trend in Inner Mongolia. The annual precipitation propensity rate showed the increase-decrease-increase trend from west to east. The periods with the least amount of precipitation were found during the period from 2000 to 2009, and the periods with the most precipitation were observed in the period 1990—1999. The precipitation increase rate was 0.47 mm per decade and there were two mutations. In 1999, precipitation changed from abundant water to lack of water and in 2011, from lack-of-water to abundant water. The precipitation in the rainy season showed the decreasing trend, and the increasing trend in the dry season. The amounts of increase and decrease were the greatest in the east, followed by the middle, and the lowest in the west. Based on the wavelet analysis, the average annual temperature change in Inner Mongolia from 1960 to 2016 was the strongest in the period of 15 years; the annual precipitation change was the strongest in the 11-year cycle. This study draws the conclusion that the climate was transforming from warm-drying to warming-humidification in Inner Mongolia from 1960 to 2016.
引文
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[11]陈素华,宫春宁,苏日那.气候变化对内蒙古农牧业生态环境的影响[J].干旱区资源与环境,2005,19(4):155-158.
[12]陈少勇,林纾,王劲松,等.中国西部雨季特征及高原季风对其影响的研究[J].中国沙漠,2011,31(3):765-773.
[13]孟秀敬,张士锋,张永勇.河西走廊57年来气温和降水时空变化特征[J].地理学报,2012,67(11):1482-1492.
[14]那音太.基于SPI指数的近50a内蒙古地区干旱特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(5):161-166.
[15]赵冰雪王,程东亚.安徽省气象数据空间插值方法比较与分布特征[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(3):141-145.
[16]符淙斌,王强.气候突变的定义和检测方法[J].大气科学,1992,16(4):482-493.
[17]贺伟,布仁仓,熊在平,等.1961-2005年东北地区气温和降水变化趋势[J].生态学报,2013,33(2):519-531.
[18]王奉安.森林的碳汇作用[J].环境保护与循环经济,2010,30(5):26-27.
[19]苗百岭,梁存柱,韩芳,等.内蒙古主要草原类型植物物候对气候波动的响应[J].生态学报,2016,36(23):7689-7701.
[20]孙晓瑞,高永,丁延龙,等.内蒙古积雪时空分布特征及其与气候因子的相关性[J].内蒙古林业科技,2017,43(2):10-15.
[21]李鹏飞,孙小明,赵昕奕.近50年中国干旱半干旱地区降水量与潜在蒸散量分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(7):57-63.
[22]李政海,鲍雅静,张靖,等.内蒙古草原退化状况及驱动因素对比分析:以锡林郭勒草原与呼伦贝尔草原为研究区域[J].大连民族学院学报,2015,17(1):1-5.
[23]郑颖,刘华民,刘东伟,等.内蒙古湿地空间分布格局及动态变化研究[J].环境科学与技术,2016,39(12):1-16.
[24]顾润源,周伟灿,白美兰,等.气候变化对黄河内蒙古段凌汛期的影响[J].中国沙漠,2012,32(6):1751-1756.
[25]陈宝瑞,辛晓平,朱玉霞,等.内蒙古荒漠化年际动态变化及与气候因子分析[J].遥感应用,2007(6):39-44.
[2]史培军,孙劭,汪明,等.中国气候变化区划(1961-2010年)[J].中国科学:地球科学,2014,44(10):2294-2306.
[3]韩翠华,郝志新,郑景云.1951-2010年中国气温变化分区及其区域特征[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(6):887-896.
[4]范泽孟,岳天祥,陈传法,等.中国气温与降水的时空变化趋势分析[J].地球信息科学学报,2011,13(4):526-533.
[5]张晶晶,陈爽,赵昕奕.近50年中国气温变化的区域差异及其与全球气候变化的联系[J].干旱区资源与环境,2006,20(4):1-6.
[6]尤莉,沈建国,裴浩.内蒙古近50年气候变化及未来10-20年趋势展望[J].内蒙古气象,2002(4):14-18.
[7]包刚,吴琼,阿拉腾图雅,等.近30年内蒙古气温和降水量变化分析[J].内蒙古师范大学学报:自然科学汉文版,2012,41(6):668-674.
[8]侯琼,郭瑞清,杨丽桃.内蒙古气候变化及其对主要农作物的影响[J].中国农业气象,2009,30(4):560-564.
[9]顾润源,周伟灿,白美兰,等.气候变化对内蒙古草原典型植物物候的影响[J].生态学报,2012,32(3):767-776.
[10]陈辰,王靖,潘学标,等.气候变化对内蒙古草地生产力影响的模拟研究[J].草地学报,2013,21(5):850-860.
[11]陈素华,宫春宁,苏日那.气候变化对内蒙古农牧业生态环境的影响[J].干旱区资源与环境,2005,19(4):155-158.
[12]陈少勇,林纾,王劲松,等.中国西部雨季特征及高原季风对其影响的研究[J].中国沙漠,2011,31(3):765-773.
[13]孟秀敬,张士锋,张永勇.河西走廊57年来气温和降水时空变化特征[J].地理学报,2012,67(11):1482-1492.
[14]那音太.基于SPI指数的近50a内蒙古地区干旱特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(5):161-166.
[15]赵冰雪王,程东亚.安徽省气象数据空间插值方法比较与分布特征[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(3):141-145.
[16]符淙斌,王强.气候突变的定义和检测方法[J].大气科学,1992,16(4):482-493.
[17]贺伟,布仁仓,熊在平,等.1961-2005年东北地区气温和降水变化趋势[J].生态学报,2013,33(2):519-531.
[18]王奉安.森林的碳汇作用[J].环境保护与循环经济,2010,30(5):26-27.
[19]苗百岭,梁存柱,韩芳,等.内蒙古主要草原类型植物物候对气候波动的响应[J].生态学报,2016,36(23):7689-7701.
[20]孙晓瑞,高永,丁延龙,等.内蒙古积雪时空分布特征及其与气候因子的相关性[J].内蒙古林业科技,2017,43(2):10-15.
[21]李鹏飞,孙小明,赵昕奕.近50年中国干旱半干旱地区降水量与潜在蒸散量分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(7):57-63.
[22]李政海,鲍雅静,张靖,等.内蒙古草原退化状况及驱动因素对比分析:以锡林郭勒草原与呼伦贝尔草原为研究区域[J].大连民族学院学报,2015,17(1):1-5.
[23]郑颖,刘华民,刘东伟,等.内蒙古湿地空间分布格局及动态变化研究[J].环境科学与技术,2016,39(12):1-16.
[24]顾润源,周伟灿,白美兰,等.气候变化对黄河内蒙古段凌汛期的影响[J].中国沙漠,2012,32(6):1751-1756.
[25]陈宝瑞,辛晓平,朱玉霞,等.内蒙古荒漠化年际动态变化及与气候因子分析[J].遥感应用,2007(6):39-44.
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