中美双边农产品出口三元边际测度及关税效应研究
|
摘要
本文利用UN Comtrade数据库1992—2016年中美双边HS-6位农产品贸易数据,测度了中美双边农产品出口三元边际,并实证分析了关税变动对中美双边农产品出口三元边际的影响。结果表明:(1)中国对美国农产品出口种类逐渐丰富,多样性程度虽低于美国对中国农产品出口多样性程度,但两者差距逐渐缩小;美国出口中国农产品数量整体水平和增长幅度均大于中国出口美国同期水平,且两者差距逐渐扩大。(2)中国对美国农产品出口贸易增长主要依靠扩展边际的增长,美国对中国农产品出口贸易增长主要依靠数量边际的提高,但不同时期以及不同类别农产品出口增长的驱动力存在差异。(3)关税的提高会导致中美双边农产品出口种类和数量下降、价格上升;关税变动对中美双边农产品出口的影响主要是通过对数量边际的影响来实现;关税变动对中国出口美国农产品三元边际的影响高于对美国出口中国农产品三元边际的影响。
Using the bilateral HS-6 6-digit trade data from 1992 to 2016 in UN Comtrade database,this paper measures three margins characteristics of bilateral agricultural products trade between China and the United States,and empirically analyses the influence of tariff changes on the three-dimensional margin of bilateral agricultural trade between China and the United States.The results show that the variety of China's export products to the United States are gradually enriched.Although the degree of diversity is lower than that of the United States,the gap between two countries is narrowing gradually. The overall level and growth rate of United States 'agricultural products exported to China are larger than that of China 's exports to the United States,and the gap between them has been gradually expanded.The growth of China's exports to the United States mainly depends on the growth of extensive margin,and the growth of the United States' exports to China mainly depends on the increase of quantity margin.However,the driving forces of export growth in different periods and categories are different.The increase of tariffs will lead to a decline of the number and type of agricultural exports between China and the United States. However,the increase of tariffs will lead to an increase of bilateral agricultural export prices.The impact of tariff changes on bilateral agricultural trade between China and the United States is mainly achieved through the influence of the quantity margin.The impact of tariff changes on three margins of China's agricultural exports to the United States is higher than that of United States' agricultural exports to China.
Using the bilateral HS-6 6-digit trade data from 1992 to 2016 in UN Comtrade database,this paper measures three margins characteristics of bilateral agricultural products trade between China and the United States,and empirically analyses the influence of tariff changes on the three-dimensional margin of bilateral agricultural trade between China and the United States.The results show that the variety of China's export products to the United States are gradually enriched.Although the degree of diversity is lower than that of the United States,the gap between two countries is narrowing gradually. The overall level and growth rate of United States 'agricultural products exported to China are larger than that of China 's exports to the United States,and the gap between them has been gradually expanded.The growth of China's exports to the United States mainly depends on the growth of extensive margin,and the growth of the United States' exports to China mainly depends on the increase of quantity margin.However,the driving forces of export growth in different periods and categories are different.The increase of tariffs will lead to a decline of the number and type of agricultural exports between China and the United States. However,the increase of tariffs will lead to an increase of bilateral agricultural export prices.The impact of tariff changes on bilateral agricultural trade between China and the United States is mainly achieved through the influence of the quantity margin.The impact of tariff changes on three margins of China's agricultural exports to the United States is higher than that of United States' agricultural exports to China.
引文
1. Albornoz F,Pardo H F C,Corcos G,et al. Sequential exporting.Journal of International Economics,2012,88(1):17~31
2 . Aldan A,ulha O Y. The role of the extensive margin in export of Turkey:A comparative analysis.Central Bank Review,2016,16(2):59 ~64
3 . Andersson M. Entry costs and adjustments on the extensive margin-an analysis of how familiarity breeds exports.Working Paper,2007
4 . Arata K,Shujiro U,Kazuhiko Y. Estimatingthe Impacts of FTA on Foreign Trade:An analysis of extensive and intensive trade margins for the Japan-Mexico FTA.Discussion Papers,2016,285(4):725~734
5 . Bernard A B,Jensen J B. Entry,Expansion,and Intensity in the US Export Boom,1987-1992.Review of International Economics,2004,12 (4):662~675
6 . Buono I,Lalanne G. The effect of the Uruguay Round on the intensive and extensive margins of trade.Journal of International Economics,2012,86(2):269~283
7 . Das S,Roberts M J,Tybout J R. Market Entry Costs,Producer Heterogeneity,and Export Dynamics. Econometrica,2007,75(3):837 ~873
8 . Debaere P,Mostashari S. Do tariffs matter for the extensive margin of international trade? An empirical analysis.Journal of International Economics,2010,81(2):163~169
9 . Feenstra R C,Kee H L. Trade Liberalisation and Export Variety:A Comparison of Mexico and China. World Economy,2007,30(1):5 ~21
10 . Felbermayr G J,Kohler W. Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade.Review of World Economics,2006,142(4):642 ~674
11 . Hausmann R,Klinger B. Structural Transformation and Patterns of Comparative Advantage in the Product Space.Working Paper,2006
12 . Helpman E,Melitz M,Rubinstein Y. Estimating Trade Flows:Trading Partners and Trading Volumes. Social Science Electronic Publishing,2008,123(2):441~487
13 . Hummels D,Klenow P J. The Variety and Quality of a Nation's Exports.American Economic Review,2005,95(3):704~723
14 . Kei-Mu Yi. Can Vertical Specialization Explain the Growth of WorldTrade?.Journal of Political Economy,2003,111(1):52~102
15 . Melitz M J. The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity. Econometrica,2003,71(6):1695~1725
16 . Türkcan K,Piskin E. The Effects of the Trade Agreements on the Dynamics of Turkey's Export:Extensive and Intensive Margins.Working Paper,2014
17 .鲍晓华,严晓杰.我国农产品出口的二元边际测度及SPS措施的影响研究.国际贸易问题,2014(6):33~41
18 .耿献辉,张晓恒,周应恒.中国农产品出口二元边际结构及其影响因素.中国农村经济,2014(5):36~50
19 .黄鹏,汪建新,孟雪.经济全球化再平衡与中美贸易摩擦.中国工业经济,2018(10):156~174
20 .李春顶,何传添,林创伟.中美贸易摩擦应对政策的效果评估.中国工业经济,2018(10):137~155
21 .李文霞,杨逢珉,周华凯.中国农产品出口马来西亚的二元边际分析.经济问题探索,2015(08):170~178
22 .栾敬东,李靖.中美农产品贸易增长特征及其成因探析.农业技术经济,2006(2):33~37
23 .马翠萍,肖海峰,王金凤.加入WTO十年中美农产品贸易演变.世界经济研究,2012(1):57~61
24 .钱涛,冯中朝,李谷成.中国农产品出口增长的主导因素:集约边际还是扩展边际.现代财经(天津财经大学学报),2016,36(7):28~37+103
25 .钱学锋,熊平.中国出口增长的二元边际及其因素决定.经济研究,2010,45(1):65~79
26 .史本叶,张永亮.中国对外贸易成本分解与出口增长的二元边际.财经研究,2014,40(1):73~82
27 .施炳展.中国出口增长的三元边际.经济学(季刊),2010,9(4):1311~1330
28 .谭晶荣,刘莉,王瑞,叶婷婷.中越农产品出口增长的二元边际分析.农业经济问题,2013(10):56~63
29 .田聪颖,肖海峰. FTA背景下中韩双边出口增长的三元边际特征及前景分析.世界经济研究,2018(4):97~109
30 .王曦,帅传敏.中美农业贸易的互补性研究.经济问题,2010(4):81~84
31 .吴宏,胡春叶.中美农产品产业内贸易研究.宏观经济研究,2009(6):26~31
32 .薛同锐,周申.后危机时代美国贸易保护对中国劳动就业的影响.亚太经济,2017(1):85~92
33 .杨春艳,綦建红.关于中美农产品贸易结构的实证分析.农业技术经济,2006(2):26~32
34 .杨逢珉,翟慧娟,毛一卿.我国农产品出口欧盟市场的二元边际分解.经济问题,2015(10):78~84
35 .张莉侠,孟令杰.中美农产品贸易互补性分析.国际贸易问题,2006(11):45~49
36 .张宇青,周应恒,张晓恒.中国对发达和不发达贸易对象的农产品出口二元边际差异分析.国际贸易问题,2014(1):43~50
37 .朱海霞,顾海英.基于引力模型的中美农产品贸易边境效应研究.财贸研究,2008(3):58~65
38 .朱晶,毕颖.贸易便利化对中国农产品出口深度和广度的影响———以“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家为例.国际贸易问题,2018(4):60~71
(1)数据来源:https://comtrade. un. org
(1)数据来源:https://wits. worldbank. org
*限于篇幅限制,不再单独提供稳健估计结果,如有兴趣,可向作者索取
2 . Aldan A,ulha O Y. The role of the extensive margin in export of Turkey:A comparative analysis.Central Bank Review,2016,16(2):59 ~64
3 . Andersson M. Entry costs and adjustments on the extensive margin-an analysis of how familiarity breeds exports.Working Paper,2007
4 . Arata K,Shujiro U,Kazuhiko Y. Estimatingthe Impacts of FTA on Foreign Trade:An analysis of extensive and intensive trade margins for the Japan-Mexico FTA.Discussion Papers,2016,285(4):725~734
5 . Bernard A B,Jensen J B. Entry,Expansion,and Intensity in the US Export Boom,1987-1992.Review of International Economics,2004,12 (4):662~675
6 . Buono I,Lalanne G. The effect of the Uruguay Round on the intensive and extensive margins of trade.Journal of International Economics,2012,86(2):269~283
7 . Das S,Roberts M J,Tybout J R. Market Entry Costs,Producer Heterogeneity,and Export Dynamics. Econometrica,2007,75(3):837 ~873
8 . Debaere P,Mostashari S. Do tariffs matter for the extensive margin of international trade? An empirical analysis.Journal of International Economics,2010,81(2):163~169
9 . Feenstra R C,Kee H L. Trade Liberalisation and Export Variety:A Comparison of Mexico and China. World Economy,2007,30(1):5 ~21
10 . Felbermayr G J,Kohler W. Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade.Review of World Economics,2006,142(4):642 ~674
11 . Hausmann R,Klinger B. Structural Transformation and Patterns of Comparative Advantage in the Product Space.Working Paper,2006
12 . Helpman E,Melitz M,Rubinstein Y. Estimating Trade Flows:Trading Partners and Trading Volumes. Social Science Electronic Publishing,2008,123(2):441~487
13 . Hummels D,Klenow P J. The Variety and Quality of a Nation's Exports.American Economic Review,2005,95(3):704~723
14 . Kei-Mu Yi. Can Vertical Specialization Explain the Growth of WorldTrade?.Journal of Political Economy,2003,111(1):52~102
15 . Melitz M J. The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity. Econometrica,2003,71(6):1695~1725
16 . Türkcan K,Piskin E. The Effects of the Trade Agreements on the Dynamics of Turkey's Export:Extensive and Intensive Margins.Working Paper,2014
17 .鲍晓华,严晓杰.我国农产品出口的二元边际测度及SPS措施的影响研究.国际贸易问题,2014(6):33~41
18 .耿献辉,张晓恒,周应恒.中国农产品出口二元边际结构及其影响因素.中国农村经济,2014(5):36~50
19 .黄鹏,汪建新,孟雪.经济全球化再平衡与中美贸易摩擦.中国工业经济,2018(10):156~174
20 .李春顶,何传添,林创伟.中美贸易摩擦应对政策的效果评估.中国工业经济,2018(10):137~155
21 .李文霞,杨逢珉,周华凯.中国农产品出口马来西亚的二元边际分析.经济问题探索,2015(08):170~178
22 .栾敬东,李靖.中美农产品贸易增长特征及其成因探析.农业技术经济,2006(2):33~37
23 .马翠萍,肖海峰,王金凤.加入WTO十年中美农产品贸易演变.世界经济研究,2012(1):57~61
24 .钱涛,冯中朝,李谷成.中国农产品出口增长的主导因素:集约边际还是扩展边际.现代财经(天津财经大学学报),2016,36(7):28~37+103
25 .钱学锋,熊平.中国出口增长的二元边际及其因素决定.经济研究,2010,45(1):65~79
26 .史本叶,张永亮.中国对外贸易成本分解与出口增长的二元边际.财经研究,2014,40(1):73~82
27 .施炳展.中国出口增长的三元边际.经济学(季刊),2010,9(4):1311~1330
28 .谭晶荣,刘莉,王瑞,叶婷婷.中越农产品出口增长的二元边际分析.农业经济问题,2013(10):56~63
29 .田聪颖,肖海峰. FTA背景下中韩双边出口增长的三元边际特征及前景分析.世界经济研究,2018(4):97~109
30 .王曦,帅传敏.中美农业贸易的互补性研究.经济问题,2010(4):81~84
31 .吴宏,胡春叶.中美农产品产业内贸易研究.宏观经济研究,2009(6):26~31
32 .薛同锐,周申.后危机时代美国贸易保护对中国劳动就业的影响.亚太经济,2017(1):85~92
33 .杨春艳,綦建红.关于中美农产品贸易结构的实证分析.农业技术经济,2006(2):26~32
34 .杨逢珉,翟慧娟,毛一卿.我国农产品出口欧盟市场的二元边际分解.经济问题,2015(10):78~84
35 .张莉侠,孟令杰.中美农产品贸易互补性分析.国际贸易问题,2006(11):45~49
36 .张宇青,周应恒,张晓恒.中国对发达和不发达贸易对象的农产品出口二元边际差异分析.国际贸易问题,2014(1):43~50
37 .朱海霞,顾海英.基于引力模型的中美农产品贸易边境效应研究.财贸研究,2008(3):58~65
38 .朱晶,毕颖.贸易便利化对中国农产品出口深度和广度的影响———以“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家为例.国际贸易问题,2018(4):60~71
(1)数据来源:https://comtrade. un. org
(1)数据来源:https://wits. worldbank. org
*限于篇幅限制,不再单独提供稳健估计结果,如有兴趣,可向作者索取