高房价对大城市人口流入的抑制效应——来自北上广深四城市的实证证据
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摘要
高房价对城市经济发展的影响具有两面性,在繁荣了房地产市场进而促进城市经济发展的同时也扭曲了城市经济的结构布局与增长动力,从而降低了经济发展的活力,导致城市引力的弱化。运用2005～2016年北上广深四个一线超大城市面板数据实证分析住宅商品房价格等因素对人口流动的影响。研究结果表明:高房价对人口流入存在着抑制效应,住宅商品房价格每变化一个百分点,将会引起城市人口净流入量减少约0. 42个百分点;高就业水平与良好的教育创新环境能够促进人口向该地区流动;城市环境状况与收入水平虽然对人口流动有影响,但目前不是影响人口向该地流动的主要因素。
The impact of high housing prices on urban economic development has two sides.While prospering the real estate market and promoting urban economic development,it also distorts the structural layout and growth momentum of the urban economy,Thereby reducing the vitality of economic development and causing the weakening of urban gravity.This artical using panel data from four superbig cities of Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou and Shenzhen during the year of 2005 ～ 2016 to empirically analyzes the impact of residential housing prices and other factors on the floating population. The results of the study show that high housing prices have an inhibitory effect on population inflows,every one percentage point change in the price of residential commercial housing will cause a net inflow of urban population to decrease by about 0. 42 percentage points; High employment levels and a good educational and innovative environment can promote population mobility to the region; Although urban environmental conditions and income levels have an impact on population movements,they are not currently the main factors affecting the flow of population to the area.
The impact of high housing prices on urban economic development has two sides.While prospering the real estate market and promoting urban economic development,it also distorts the structural layout and growth momentum of the urban economy,Thereby reducing the vitality of economic development and causing the weakening of urban gravity.This artical using panel data from four superbig cities of Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou and Shenzhen during the year of 2005 ～ 2016 to empirically analyzes the impact of residential housing prices and other factors on the floating population. The results of the study show that high housing prices have an inhibitory effect on population inflows,every one percentage point change in the price of residential commercial housing will cause a net inflow of urban population to decrease by about 0. 42 percentage points; High employment levels and a good educational and innovative environment can promote population mobility to the region; Although urban environmental conditions and income levels have an impact on population movements,they are not currently the main factors affecting the flow of population to the area.
引文
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[2]张展新,杨思思.流动人口研究中的概念、数据及议题综述[J].中国人口科学.2013(6):102-112
[3]杨云彦.中国人口迁移与发展的长期战略[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社.1994:78-83
[4]徐媛.乡城人口迁移影响要素研究---基于第六次全国人口普查汇总数据[D].安徽:安徽大学.2016
[5]原新,王海宁,陈媛媛.大城市外来人口迁移行为影响因素分析[J].人口学刊.2011(1):59-66.
[6]李培,邓慧慧.京津冀地区人口迁移特征及其影响因素分析[J].人口与经济.2007(6):59-63
[7]张群.外来人口中不同群体迁移行为的影响因素分析[D].济南:山东大学.2016
[8]段成荣.省际人口迁移迁入地选择的影响因素分析[J].人口研究,2001,25(1):56-61
[9]张庆武.青年流动人口社会融入问题研究---以北京市为例[J].青年研究.2014(5):50-60
[10]夏贵芳,朱宇,林李月,等.东部三大经济区城市流动人口的多维度社会融入及其地区差异[J].地理科学进展.2018,37(3):373-384
[11]杨菊华.中国流动人口的社会融入研究[J].中国社会科学.2015(2):61-79
[12]Birrel Bob,E.H.How are skilled migrants doing?[J].People and Place,2008,16(1):1-20.
[13]Potepan,M.J.Intermetropolitan migration and housing prices:Simultaneously determined?[J].Journal of Housing Economics,1994,3(2):77-91.
[14]Gonzalez,L.,&Omega,R.Immigration and housing booms:Evidence from Spain[J].Journal of Regional Science,2013,53(1):37-59.
[15]任木荣,刘波.房价与城市化的关系---基于省际面板数据的实证分析[J].南方经济,2009(2):41-49
[16]骆永民.城市化对房价的影响:线性还是非线性?---基于四种面板数据回归模型的实证分析[J].财经研究,2011(4):135-144
[17]董昕,周卫华.住房市场与农民工住房选择的区域差异[J].经济地理,2014(12):140-146
[18]谭鹏.基于人口流动视角的保障性住房建设研究[D].湘潭:湘潭大学,2011
[19]陆铭,欧海军,陈斌开.理性还是泡沫:对城市化、移民和房价的经验研究[J].世界经济,2014(1):30-54
[20]毛丰付.房价波动影响物价水平的传导机制---基于劳动力成本的视角[J].价格理论与实践,2008(7):42-43
[21]毛丰付,王建生.保障性住房能够促进人口流动吗?---基于省际人口流动的引力模型分析[J].华东经济管理,2016,30(11):86-95