移民搬迁是否加剧了山区耕地撂荒?——基于陕南三市1578户农户面板数据
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摘要
山区移民搬迁是否加剧耕地撂荒关系到移民稳定性及国家粮食安全,具有重要的研究价值。基于陕西省南部地区商洛、安康、汉中3市8县(区)1578户农户调查数据,运用面板Logit和Tobit模型回归得出,移民年数对是否撂荒、撂荒面积及撂荒耕地占比在1%的水平上有正向影响;仅当移民距离超过0.5 km时,农户耕地撂荒面积及撂荒耕地占比显著增加;不同移民类型中,工程移民对耕地撂荒的影响程度最大,避灾移民影响程度最小;另外,户主特征、家庭特征、资源禀赋特征、农地流转特征显著影响了农户的耕地撂荒行为。可以得出,移民搬迁加剧了山区耕地撂荒,城镇生活的转变及务农时间机会成本的增加是耕地撂荒的主要原因。建议政府对工程移民农户进行有土安置,加大生态移民区退耕还林支持力度,扶持扶贫、避灾移民农户发展特色产业,加快农地流转信息平台建设。
Rural resettlement, an effective measure to eliminate poverty and improve the ecological environment, develops rapidly in China. Since farmland abandonment closely relates to the stability of migration as well as the national food security, the research regarding whether resettlement accelerates farmland abandonment in mountainous areas is of great importance in China. We used panel Logit and panel Tobit models to analyze the influencing mechanism of resettlement on farmland abandonment with data of 1578 households in 8 counties in prefectures of Shangluo, Ankang, and Hanzhong, the southern part of Shaanxi province. The results show that farmers' resettlement behavior had a significant positive effect on farmland abandonment behavior. The coefficient of migration period was significant at 1%in all regressions, and farmers were more likely to abandon farmland when migration distance was larger than 0.5 kilometer. All types of migration can accelerate farmland abandonment,among which engineering resettlement had the largest effects on farmers' land abandonment behavior, while disaster avoidance resettlement had the least effects. In addition, householder characteristics, household characteristics, resource endowment characteristics, and land rental market are all important influencing factors of farmers' land abandonment behavior. We thus conclude that farmers' enthusiasm of agricultural production decreases after migration, and the phenomenon for land abandonment becomes more obvious with the implementation of resettlement and relocation project in Southern Shaanxi. The transformation to town life and increased time opportunity cost of farming are the main reasons for resettled farmers' land abandonment behavior. The government is suggested to reallocate farmland to engineering resettled farmers, and encourage resettled farmers to participate in the slopping land conversion program with more supporting policies, as well as solve the livelihood problem by developing characteristic industries. In addition, land rental market should be promoted by establishing the information platform of land transfer in all resettlement areas.
Rural resettlement, an effective measure to eliminate poverty and improve the ecological environment, develops rapidly in China. Since farmland abandonment closely relates to the stability of migration as well as the national food security, the research regarding whether resettlement accelerates farmland abandonment in mountainous areas is of great importance in China. We used panel Logit and panel Tobit models to analyze the influencing mechanism of resettlement on farmland abandonment with data of 1578 households in 8 counties in prefectures of Shangluo, Ankang, and Hanzhong, the southern part of Shaanxi province. The results show that farmers' resettlement behavior had a significant positive effect on farmland abandonment behavior. The coefficient of migration period was significant at 1%in all regressions, and farmers were more likely to abandon farmland when migration distance was larger than 0.5 kilometer. All types of migration can accelerate farmland abandonment,among which engineering resettlement had the largest effects on farmers' land abandonment behavior, while disaster avoidance resettlement had the least effects. In addition, householder characteristics, household characteristics, resource endowment characteristics, and land rental market are all important influencing factors of farmers' land abandonment behavior. We thus conclude that farmers' enthusiasm of agricultural production decreases after migration, and the phenomenon for land abandonment becomes more obvious with the implementation of resettlement and relocation project in Southern Shaanxi. The transformation to town life and increased time opportunity cost of farming are the main reasons for resettled farmers' land abandonment behavior. The government is suggested to reallocate farmland to engineering resettled farmers, and encourage resettled farmers to participate in the slopping land conversion program with more supporting policies, as well as solve the livelihood problem by developing characteristic industries. In addition, land rental market should be promoted by establishing the information platform of land transfer in all resettlement areas.
引文
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(1)数据来源于《陕西实施移民搬迁工程对农民收入影响的调查报告》,2015-09-30.http://www.nbs-sosn.cn/index.aspx?menuid=4&type=articleinfo&lanmuid=18&infoid=1900&language=cn。
(2)数据来源于陕西省陕南移民搬迁工作领导小组办公室,《陕南移民搬迁(白皮书)》,2015年7月。
(3)耕地分配过程中,村集体根据土地质量、地理位置等要素对土地进行分类,在此基础上将每类土地按人口平均分配,最终农户承包土地由质量及距离不同的地块组成。
[2]宋世雄,梁小英,梅亚军,等.基于CBDI的农户耕地撂荒行为模型构建及模拟研究:以陕西省米脂县冯阳坬村为例.自然资源学报, 2016, 31(11):1926-1937.[SONG S X, LIANG X Y, MEI Y J, et al. Modeling and simulating land abandonment behavior of farmer households based on the CBDI. Journal of Natural Resources, 2016, 31(11):1926-1937.]
[3]何得桂,党国英.陕南避灾移民搬迁中的社会排斥机制研究.国家行政学院学报, 2012,(6):163-168.[HE D G,DANG G Y. The social exclusion mechanism in the process of ecological migration in Southern Shaanxi. Journal of China National School of Administration, 2012,(6):163-168.]
[4]何得桂.陕南地区大规模避灾移民搬迁的风险及其规避策略.农业现代化研究, 2013, 34(4):398-402.[HE D G. Risk of large-scale disaster-induced migration in Southern Shaanxi province and the avoidance strategy. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2013, 34(4):398-402.]
[5]李升发,李秀彬,辛良杰,等.中国山区耕地撂荒程度及空间分布:基于全国山区抽样调查结果.资源科学, 2017, 39(10):1801-1811.[LI S F, LI X B, XIN L J, et al. Extent and distribution of cropland abandonment in Chinese mountainous areas. Resources Science, 2017, 39(10):1801-1811.]
[6]雷锟,阎建忠,何威风.基于农户尺度的山区耕地撂荒影响因素分析.西南大学学报:自然科学版, 2016, 38(7):149-157.[LEI K, YAN J Z, HE W F. Reason of cultivated land abandonment in hilly areas based on perspective of farmers.Journal of Southwest University:Natural Science Edition, 2016, 38(7):149-157.]
[7]田玉军,李秀彬,马国霞,等.劳动力析出对生态脆弱区耕地撂荒的影响.中国土地科学, 2010,(7):4-9.[TIAN Y J,LI X B, MA G X, et al. Influences of labour emigration from agriculture on the production abandonment of cultivated land in ecological sensitive areas. China Land Science, 2010,(7):4-9.]
[8]李升发,李秀彬.耕地撂荒研究进展与展望.地理学报, 2016, 71(3):389-390.[LI S F, LI X B. Progress and prospect on farmland abandonment. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(3):389-390.]
[9] BAUMANN M, KUEMMERLE T, ELBAKIDZE M, et al. Patterns and drivers of post-socialist farmland abandonment in Western Ukraine. Land Use Policy, 2011, 28(3):552-562.
[10]宋世雄,梁小英,陈海,等.基于多智能体和土地转换模型的耕地撂荒模拟研究:以陕西省米脂县为例.自然资源学报, 2018, 33(3):515-525.[SONG S X, LIANG X Y, CHEN H, et al. The simulation of cropland abandonment based on multi-agent system and land transformation model:A case study of Mizhi county, Shaaxi province. Journal of Natural Resources, 2018, 33(3):515-525.]
[11]曹志宏,郝晋珉,梁流涛.农户耕地撂荒行为经济分析与策略研究.农业技术经济, 2008,(3):43-46.[CAO Z H,HAO J M, LIANG L T. Economic analysis and strategy about farmers'land abandonment behavior. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2008,(3):43-46.]
[12] STRIJER D. Marginal lands in Europe:Causes of decline. Basic and Applied Ecology, 2005, 6(2):99-106.
[13]东梅.生态移民与农民收入:基于宁夏红寺堡移民开发区的实证分析.中国农村经济, 2006,(3):48-52.[DONG M.Ecological migration and household income:Empirical analysis based on Hongsipu immigration development zone in Ningxia. China Rural Economy, 2006,(3):48-52.]
[14]黄志刚,陈晓楠,李健瑜.生态移民政策对农户收入影响机理研究:基于形成型指标的结构方程模型分析.资源科学, 2018, 40(2):439-451.[HUANG Z G, CHEN X N, LI J Y. Research on the impact mechanism of ecological migration policy on rural household income based on the Structural Equation Model with formative indicators. Resources Science, 2018, 40(2):439-451.]
[15]李聪.易地移民搬迁对农户贫困脆弱性的影响:来自陕南山区的证据.经济经纬, 2018, 35(1):35-40.[LI C. Impacts of relocation and settlement program on rural households'vulnerability to poverty:Evidence from mountainous areas in South Shaanxi. Economic Survey, 2018, 35(1):35-40.]
[16]赵剑波,余劲.陕南生态移民政策对农户收入的影响研究.武汉理工大学学报:社会科学版, 2015, 28(3):526-530.[ZHAO J B, YU J. Issue about impact of immigration policy on rural households income in Southern Shaanxi. Journal of Wuhan University of Technology:Social Science Edition, 2015, 28(3):526-530.]
[17]李聪,柳玮,冯伟林,等.移民搬迁对农户生计策略的影响:基于陕南安康地区的调查.中国农村观察, 2013,(6):31-44.[LI C, LIU W, FENG W L, et al. The influence of relocation policy on rural households'livelihood strategy:Based on the household survey data in South Shaanxi province. China Rural Survey, 2013,(6):31-44.]
[18]马力,夏立忠,李运东,等.三峡库首移民安置区土地资源、移民经济状况及移民满意度的调查与分析.长江流域资源与环境, 2011, 20(1):21-27.[MA L, XIA L Z, LI Y D, et al. Investigation of land resources, economic status and satisfaction level of resources in resettlement region of head of the Three Gorges Reservoir. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2011, 20(1):21-27.]
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(1)数据来源于《陕西实施移民搬迁工程对农民收入影响的调查报告》,2015-09-30.http://www.nbs-sosn.cn/index.aspx?menuid=4&type=articleinfo&lanmuid=18&infoid=1900&language=cn。
(2)数据来源于陕西省陕南移民搬迁工作领导小组办公室,《陕南移民搬迁(白皮书)》,2015年7月。
(3)耕地分配过程中,村集体根据土地质量、地理位置等要素对土地进行分类,在此基础上将每类土地按人口平均分配,最终农户承包土地由质量及距离不同的地块组成。