集合敏感性方法在高原涡和西南涡引发暴雨过程中的应用
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摘要
基于欧洲中期天气预报中心ECMWF的集合预报和美国国家环境预报中心NCEP再分析等资料对2013年6月30日一次高原涡和西南涡作用下的四川盆地暴雨过程进行了分析。结果表明:(1)高原涡东移并和西南涡耦合加强导致了持续性暴雨的形成,集合预报的高原涡和西南涡之间的动力特征量(位势高度和涡度)的相关系数随时间逐步增大,表明两个低涡呈现出逐步耦合加强的特征;(2)集合敏感性分析可以用来揭示降水预报对于天气系统的敏感性,结合高度场和风场反映出低涡对暴雨的影响,此次过程暴雨对高原涡比西南涡更加敏感,在集合预报对西南涡预报不确定性较小的情况下,集合成员对高原涡的预报是影响降水强度和落区预报的关键因子,与实况更加接近的最优集合成员与控制预报相比,预报的高原涡强度更强,位置偏东;(3)30日,夜间降水量对低涡的动力特征量较白天更为敏感,主要是因为夜间暴雨是由高原涡和西南涡垂直耦合加强引发的,动力作用较明显,而白天的暴雨热力作用更加显著。
Based on the ECMWF ensemble data and NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis data,the characteristics of a heavy rainfall over the Sichuan Basin on June 30 in 2013 under interaction between Plateau Vortex( PV) and Southwest Vortex( SWV) are analyzed. Results showthat:( 1) PV moved eastward coupling with SWV which caused persistent heavy rainfall. Correlation coefficients of dynamic parameters( geopotential height and vorticity) between PV and SWV of ensemble forecast increased with time during the process indicating the characteristics of gradual coupling and intensifying of PV and SWV;( 2) Ensemble sensitivity analysis can be used to reveal the sensitivity of rainfall to weather system and demonstrate the influence of vortex system on the heavy rainfall combined with geopotential height and wind fields. Heavy rainfall of this event was more sensitive to PV than SWV. When the forecast uncertainty of SWV of ensemble forecast was smaller,the forecast of PV was the key factor for forecasting of intensity and location of rainfall. Best ensemble members whose rainfall forecast was similar to the observed rainfall have stronger and easter location of PV compared to control member;( 3) Heavy rainfall at night on June 30 was more sensitive to dynamic parameters of vortex systems than that in the day. Because heavy rainfall at night is caused by coupling of PV and SWV,which was characterized by more significant dynamic effect.In contrast,heavy rainfall in daytime was characterized by more significant thermodynamic effect.
Based on the ECMWF ensemble data and NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis data,the characteristics of a heavy rainfall over the Sichuan Basin on June 30 in 2013 under interaction between Plateau Vortex( PV) and Southwest Vortex( SWV) are analyzed. Results showthat:( 1) PV moved eastward coupling with SWV which caused persistent heavy rainfall. Correlation coefficients of dynamic parameters( geopotential height and vorticity) between PV and SWV of ensemble forecast increased with time during the process indicating the characteristics of gradual coupling and intensifying of PV and SWV;( 2) Ensemble sensitivity analysis can be used to reveal the sensitivity of rainfall to weather system and demonstrate the influence of vortex system on the heavy rainfall combined with geopotential height and wind fields. Heavy rainfall of this event was more sensitive to PV than SWV. When the forecast uncertainty of SWV of ensemble forecast was smaller,the forecast of PV was the key factor for forecasting of intensity and location of rainfall. Best ensemble members whose rainfall forecast was similar to the observed rainfall have stronger and easter location of PV compared to control member;( 3) Heavy rainfall at night on June 30 was more sensitive to dynamic parameters of vortex systems than that in the day. Because heavy rainfall at night is caused by coupling of PV and SWV,which was characterized by more significant dynamic effect.In contrast,heavy rainfall in daytime was characterized by more significant thermodynamic effect.
引文
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Qian C H,Zhang F Q,Benjamin W G,et al.2013.Probabilistic evaluation of the dynamics and prediction of supertyphoon Megi(2010)[J].Wea Forecasting,28:1562-1577.
Schumacher R S.2011.Ensemble-basedanalysis of factors leading to the development of multiday warm-season heavy rainfall event[J].Mon Wea Rev,139:3016-3035.
Torn R D,Hakim G J.2008.Ensemble-based sensitivity analysis[J].Mon Wea Rev,136:663-677.
陈静,陈德辉,颜宏.2002.集合数值发展与研究进展[J].应用气象学报,13(4):497-507.Chen Jing,Chen Dehui,Yan Hong.2002.A brief reviewon the development of ensemble prediction system[J].J Appl Meteor Sci,13(4):497-507.
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陈朝平,冯汉中,陈静.2010.基于贝叶斯方法的四川暴雨集合概率预报产品释用[J].气象,36(5):32-39.Chen Chaoping,Feng Hanzhong,Chen Jing.2010.Application of Sichuan heavy rainfall ensemble prediction probability products based on bayesian method[J].Meteor Mon,36(5):32-29.
陈忠明,闵文彬,繆强,等.2004.高原涡与西南涡耦合作用的个例诊断[J].高原气象,23(1):76-80.Chen Zhongming,Min Wenbin,Miao Qiang,et al.2004.A case study on coupling interaction between plateau and Southwest Vortexes[J].Plateau Meteor,23(1):75-80.
杜钧,李俊.2014.集合预报方法在暴雨研究和预报中的应用[J].气象科技进展,4(5):6-20.Du Jun,Li Jun.2014.Application of ensemble methodology to heavy-rain research and prediction[J].Adv Meteor Sci Technol,4(5):6-20.
江玉华,杜钦,赵大军,等.2012.引发四川盆地东部暴雨的西南低涡结构特征研究[J].高原气象,31(6):1562-1573.Jiang Yuhua,Du Qin,Zhao Dajun,et al.2012.Study on structure characteristic of southwest vortex accompanying with heavy rainstorm in east Sichuan Basin[J].Plateau Meteor,31(6):1562-1573.
康岚,郝丽萍,牛俊丽.2012.引发暴雨的西南低涡结构特征研究[J].高原气象,31(6):1435-1443.Kang Lan,Hao Liping,Niu Junli.2012.Feature analysis on Southwest Vortex of triggering rainstorm[J].Plateau Meteor,31(6):1435-1443.
刘富明,杜文杰.1987.触发四川盆地暴雨的高原涡的形成和东移,夏半年青藏高原对我国天气的影响,青藏高原气象研究文集[M].北京:科学出版社,123-134.Liu Fuming,Du Wenjie.1987.Formation and eastward moving of plateau vortex triggering heavy rain over Sichuan Basin.Influence of Tibetan plateau on weather of China during summer half year.Study on the Tibetan Plateau[M].Beijing:Science Press,123-134.
繆强,刘波,袁立新.1999.青藏高原天气系统与背风坡浅薄天气系统耦合相互作用的特征分析[J].四川气象,19(3):18-22.Miu Qiang,Liu Bo,Yuan Lixin.1999.Analysis of coupling interaction between weather system of Qinghai-Xizang plateau and shallowweather system of leeward slope[J].J Sichuan Meteor,19(3):18-22.
邱静雅,李国平,郝丽萍.2015.高原涡与西南涡相互作用引发四川暴雨的位涡诊断[J].高原气象,34(6):1556-1565.Qiu Jingya,Li Guoping,Hao Liping.2015.Diagnostic analysis of potential vorticity on a heavy rain in Sichuan Basin under interaction between plateau vortex and Southwest Vortex[J].Plateau Meteor,34(6):1556-1565.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2014.00117.
孙俊,邓国卫,张渝杰,等.2014.“13.6.30”遂宁市特大暴雨成因的初探[J].气象,40(10):1174-1182.Sun Jun,Deng Guowei,Zhang Yujie,et al.2014.Primary study of the extreme rainfall event in Suining City on 30 June 2013[J].Meteor Mon,40(10):1174-1182.
屠妮妮,陈静,何光碧.2008.高原东侧一次大暴雨过程动力热力特征分析[J].高原气象,27(4):796-806.Tu Nini,Chen Jing,He Guangbi.2008.Dynamical and thermal character analyses of a heavy rain on the east side of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau[J].Plateau Meteor,27(4):796-806.
肖递祥,郁淑华,屠妮妮.2016.高原低涡移出高原后持续活动的典型个例分析[J].高原气象,35(1):43-54.Xiao Dixiang,Yu Shuhua,Tu Nini.2016.Analysis of typical sustained plateau vortexes after departure[J].Plateau Meteor,35(1):43-54.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00002.
肖红茹,顾清源,何光碧,等.2009.一次大暴雨过程中高原低涡与西南低涡相互作用机制探讨[J].暴雨灾害,28(1):14-20.Xiao Hongru,Gu Qingyuan,He Guangbi,et al.2009.Mechanism of the interaction between plateau vortex and southwest vortex during a heavy rain event[J].Torrential Rain Disaster,28(1):14-20.
郁淑华,高文良,彭骏.2012.青藏高原低涡活动对降水影响的统计分析[J].高原气象,31(3):592-604.Yu Shuhua,Gao Wenliang,Peng Jun.2012.Statistical analysis on influence of QinghaiXizang Plateau vortex activity on precipitation in China[J].Plateau Meteor,31(3):592-604.
宗志平,张小玲.2005.2004年9月2~6日川渝持续性暴雨过程初步分析[J].气象,31(5):37-41.Zong Zhiping,Zhang Xiaoling.2005.Analysis on heavy rain events in Sichuan and Chongqing during 2~6 september 2004[J].Meteor Mon,31(5):37-41.
宗志平,陈涛,徐珺,等.2013.2012年初秋四川盆地两次西南涡暴雨过程的对比分析与预报检验[J].气象,39(5):567-576.Zong Zhiping,Chen Tao,Xu Jun,et al.2013.Analysis and forecast verification of two southwest votex torrential rain events in Sichuan Basin in early autumn of 2012[J].Meteor Mon,39(5):567-576.
Qian C H,Zhang F Q,Benjamin W G,et al.2013.Probabilistic evaluation of the dynamics and prediction of supertyphoon Megi(2010)[J].Wea Forecasting,28:1562-1577.
Schumacher R S.2011.Ensemble-basedanalysis of factors leading to the development of multiday warm-season heavy rainfall event[J].Mon Wea Rev,139:3016-3035.
Torn R D,Hakim G J.2008.Ensemble-based sensitivity analysis[J].Mon Wea Rev,136:663-677.
陈静,陈德辉,颜宏.2002.集合数值发展与研究进展[J].应用气象学报,13(4):497-507.Chen Jing,Chen Dehui,Yan Hong.2002.A brief reviewon the development of ensemble prediction system[J].J Appl Meteor Sci,13(4):497-507.
陈静,李川,冯汉中,等.2004.青藏高原东侧“2003.8.28”暴雨的集合预报试验[J].高原气象,23(1):6-14.Chen Jing,Li Chuan,Feng Hanzhong,et al.2004.Short-Range ensemble simulation of“2003.8.28”heavy rain on the east side of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau[J].Plateau Meteor,23(1):6-14.
陈永仁,李跃清.2013.“12.7.22”四川暴雨的MCS特征及对短时强降雨的影响[J].气象,39(7):848-860.Chen Yongren,Li Yueqing.2013.Characteristics of mesoscale convective system and its effects on short-time severe rainfall in Sichuan Basin during 21-22 July 2012[J].Meteor Mon,39(7):848-860.
陈朝平,冯汉中,陈静.2010.基于贝叶斯方法的四川暴雨集合概率预报产品释用[J].气象,36(5):32-39.Chen Chaoping,Feng Hanzhong,Chen Jing.2010.Application of Sichuan heavy rainfall ensemble prediction probability products based on bayesian method[J].Meteor Mon,36(5):32-29.
陈忠明,闵文彬,繆强,等.2004.高原涡与西南涡耦合作用的个例诊断[J].高原气象,23(1):76-80.Chen Zhongming,Min Wenbin,Miao Qiang,et al.2004.A case study on coupling interaction between plateau and Southwest Vortexes[J].Plateau Meteor,23(1):75-80.
杜钧,李俊.2014.集合预报方法在暴雨研究和预报中的应用[J].气象科技进展,4(5):6-20.Du Jun,Li Jun.2014.Application of ensemble methodology to heavy-rain research and prediction[J].Adv Meteor Sci Technol,4(5):6-20.
江玉华,杜钦,赵大军,等.2012.引发四川盆地东部暴雨的西南低涡结构特征研究[J].高原气象,31(6):1562-1573.Jiang Yuhua,Du Qin,Zhao Dajun,et al.2012.Study on structure characteristic of southwest vortex accompanying with heavy rainstorm in east Sichuan Basin[J].Plateau Meteor,31(6):1562-1573.
康岚,郝丽萍,牛俊丽.2012.引发暴雨的西南低涡结构特征研究[J].高原气象,31(6):1435-1443.Kang Lan,Hao Liping,Niu Junli.2012.Feature analysis on Southwest Vortex of triggering rainstorm[J].Plateau Meteor,31(6):1435-1443.
刘富明,杜文杰.1987.触发四川盆地暴雨的高原涡的形成和东移,夏半年青藏高原对我国天气的影响,青藏高原气象研究文集[M].北京:科学出版社,123-134.Liu Fuming,Du Wenjie.1987.Formation and eastward moving of plateau vortex triggering heavy rain over Sichuan Basin.Influence of Tibetan plateau on weather of China during summer half year.Study on the Tibetan Plateau[M].Beijing:Science Press,123-134.
繆强,刘波,袁立新.1999.青藏高原天气系统与背风坡浅薄天气系统耦合相互作用的特征分析[J].四川气象,19(3):18-22.Miu Qiang,Liu Bo,Yuan Lixin.1999.Analysis of coupling interaction between weather system of Qinghai-Xizang plateau and shallowweather system of leeward slope[J].J Sichuan Meteor,19(3):18-22.
邱静雅,李国平,郝丽萍.2015.高原涡与西南涡相互作用引发四川暴雨的位涡诊断[J].高原气象,34(6):1556-1565.Qiu Jingya,Li Guoping,Hao Liping.2015.Diagnostic analysis of potential vorticity on a heavy rain in Sichuan Basin under interaction between plateau vortex and Southwest Vortex[J].Plateau Meteor,34(6):1556-1565.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2014.00117.
孙俊,邓国卫,张渝杰,等.2014.“13.6.30”遂宁市特大暴雨成因的初探[J].气象,40(10):1174-1182.Sun Jun,Deng Guowei,Zhang Yujie,et al.2014.Primary study of the extreme rainfall event in Suining City on 30 June 2013[J].Meteor Mon,40(10):1174-1182.
屠妮妮,陈静,何光碧.2008.高原东侧一次大暴雨过程动力热力特征分析[J].高原气象,27(4):796-806.Tu Nini,Chen Jing,He Guangbi.2008.Dynamical and thermal character analyses of a heavy rain on the east side of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau[J].Plateau Meteor,27(4):796-806.
肖递祥,郁淑华,屠妮妮.2016.高原低涡移出高原后持续活动的典型个例分析[J].高原气象,35(1):43-54.Xiao Dixiang,Yu Shuhua,Tu Nini.2016.Analysis of typical sustained plateau vortexes after departure[J].Plateau Meteor,35(1):43-54.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00002.
肖红茹,顾清源,何光碧,等.2009.一次大暴雨过程中高原低涡与西南低涡相互作用机制探讨[J].暴雨灾害,28(1):14-20.Xiao Hongru,Gu Qingyuan,He Guangbi,et al.2009.Mechanism of the interaction between plateau vortex and southwest vortex during a heavy rain event[J].Torrential Rain Disaster,28(1):14-20.
郁淑华,高文良,彭骏.2012.青藏高原低涡活动对降水影响的统计分析[J].高原气象,31(3):592-604.Yu Shuhua,Gao Wenliang,Peng Jun.2012.Statistical analysis on influence of QinghaiXizang Plateau vortex activity on precipitation in China[J].Plateau Meteor,31(3):592-604.
宗志平,张小玲.2005.2004年9月2~6日川渝持续性暴雨过程初步分析[J].气象,31(5):37-41.Zong Zhiping,Zhang Xiaoling.2005.Analysis on heavy rain events in Sichuan and Chongqing during 2~6 september 2004[J].Meteor Mon,31(5):37-41.
宗志平,陈涛,徐珺,等.2013.2012年初秋四川盆地两次西南涡暴雨过程的对比分析与预报检验[J].气象,39(5):567-576.Zong Zhiping,Chen Tao,Xu Jun,et al.2013.Analysis and forecast verification of two southwest votex torrential rain events in Sichuan Basin in early autumn of 2012[J].Meteor Mon,39(5):567-576.