近期哈尔里克山脉冰川变化遥感监测
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摘要
哈尔里克山脉冰川的快速退缩已经影响到吐鲁番坎儿井的水量,先前关于该区冰川研究不够细致,且最新资料报道较为短缺。以哈尔里克山脉冰川为研究对象,基于Landsat TM/ETM+和OLI影像(1992、2002、2010、2016年),通过比值阈值法、目视解译结合GIS技术,提取了该地区四期冰川边界,同时对研究区周边气温、降水以及日照时数进行线性趋势分析,研究其与冰川的响应关系。结果表明:(1)1992—2016年,哈尔里克山脉冰川总体呈现出持续退缩趋势,面积退缩了13.18%,年均退缩率为0.56%,近年来退缩速率有所减缓。(2)近似估算的冰储量在过去25 a间减少了18.33%,冰川物质亏损将对该区短缺的水资源提供了危险的信号。(3)冰川退缩率与冰川规模呈指数函数变化趋势;低海拔区冰川存在明显的末端升高趋势;N和NW向的冰川占明显优势,但N向退缩率最慢。(4)分形理论分析表明该地区冰川未来退缩将趋于一种稳定状态。该区气温和日照时数的显著上升导致其冰川退缩,同时冰川规模、海拔和坡向分布也是冰川变化的重要因素;对比发现该区冰川退缩速率较天山其他区域慢。
The glacier change can affect human survival and socio-economic development. Therefore,how to improve dynamic monitoring of glacier change is especially important. This paper took the glaciers in Hal Rick Mountain,east Tianshan Mountains,China as the study object. The number of glaciers and the boundary,area,elevation and exposure of each glacier and the changes in those aspects were investigated using the ratio threshold method and visual interpretation based on ASTER-GDEM and Landsat TM/ETM +/OLI remotely sensed data from 1992,2002,2010 and 2016. Meanwhile,the climate data in the surrounding area were analyzed using linear regression to understand the relationship between glacier and climate change. A relationship between perimeter and area was established using the fractal theory,and we calculated the fractal dimension and the spatial structure stability index of the glaciers by linear regression analysis. According to the stability index,the basic characteristics of the glacier change from 1992 to 2016 in the Hal Rick Mountain were analyzed and a preliminary forecast of glacier change trend in the future was given. The results show that the glacier areas in the region was decreased by 13. 18% from 1992 to 2016,the average annual recession rate was 0. 56%. The glaciers recession rate had been slowed down in the last few years. The estimated ice reserves had been fallen by 18. 33% in the past 25 years which signals an alarm on the region's water supply. The recession ratios and the scales of the glaciers showed an exponential function distribution trend in general with an obvious rising tendency for those glaciers of low altitude. The smaller glaciers displayed bigger recession rates than the larger glaciers. The glaciers on the northeastern slope have the bigger recession rates while those on the northern slope,the smaller recession rates.. The characteristics of the spatial structure of the glaciers were analyzed based on the fractal theory which indicated that the recession of the glaciers will tend to be stable in the future. The glacier change is a response to the remarkable rise of the temperature and increase of sunshine duration. The annual precipitation showed an downward trend which had not compensated the mass loss of water resource caused by the glacier recession. It may become a threat in the summer when the decreased runoff leads to water shortage for household water consumption in the areas of low altitudes.
The glacier change can affect human survival and socio-economic development. Therefore,how to improve dynamic monitoring of glacier change is especially important. This paper took the glaciers in Hal Rick Mountain,east Tianshan Mountains,China as the study object. The number of glaciers and the boundary,area,elevation and exposure of each glacier and the changes in those aspects were investigated using the ratio threshold method and visual interpretation based on ASTER-GDEM and Landsat TM/ETM +/OLI remotely sensed data from 1992,2002,2010 and 2016. Meanwhile,the climate data in the surrounding area were analyzed using linear regression to understand the relationship between glacier and climate change. A relationship between perimeter and area was established using the fractal theory,and we calculated the fractal dimension and the spatial structure stability index of the glaciers by linear regression analysis. According to the stability index,the basic characteristics of the glacier change from 1992 to 2016 in the Hal Rick Mountain were analyzed and a preliminary forecast of glacier change trend in the future was given. The results show that the glacier areas in the region was decreased by 13. 18% from 1992 to 2016,the average annual recession rate was 0. 56%. The glaciers recession rate had been slowed down in the last few years. The estimated ice reserves had been fallen by 18. 33% in the past 25 years which signals an alarm on the region's water supply. The recession ratios and the scales of the glaciers showed an exponential function distribution trend in general with an obvious rising tendency for those glaciers of low altitude. The smaller glaciers displayed bigger recession rates than the larger glaciers. The glaciers on the northeastern slope have the bigger recession rates while those on the northern slope,the smaller recession rates.. The characteristics of the spatial structure of the glaciers were analyzed based on the fractal theory which indicated that the recession of the glaciers will tend to be stable in the future. The glacier change is a response to the remarkable rise of the temperature and increase of sunshine duration. The annual precipitation showed an downward trend which had not compensated the mass loss of water resource caused by the glacier recession. It may become a threat in the summer when the decreased runoff leads to water shortage for household water consumption in the areas of low altitudes.
引文
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[7]孙从建,陈伟.天山山区典型内陆河流域径流组分特征分析[J].干旱区地理,2017,40(1):37-44.[SUN Congjian,CHEN Wei.Streamflow components in inland rivers in the Tianshan Mountains,northwest China[J].Arid Land Geography,2017,40(1):37-44.]
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[9]WANG X,LIU S,DING Y,et al.An approach for estimating the breach probabilities of moraine-dammed lakes in the Chinese Himalayas using remote-sensing data[J].Natural Hazards&Earth System Sciences,2012,12(10):3109-3122.
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[11]何毅,杨太保,冀琴,等.中亚阿拉套地区冰川退缩与气候变化关系研究[J].干旱区地理,2014,37(5):908-915.[HE Yi,YANG Taibao,JI Qin,et al.Glacier shrinkage and its dependence on climate in the Central Asia Alatau Region[J].Arid Land Geography,2014,37(5):908-915.]
[12]HE Y,YANGT B,QIN J,et al.Glacier variation in response to climate change in Chinese Tianshan Mountains from 1989 to 2012[J].Journal of Mountain Science,2015,12(5):1189-1202.
[13]王叶堂,侯书贵,鲁安新,等.近40年来天山东段冰川变化及其对气候的响应[J].干旱区地理,2008,31(6):813-821.[WANG Yetang,HOU Shugui,LU Anxin,et al.Response of glacier variations in the eastern Tianshan Mountains to climate change,during the last 40 years[J].Arid Land Geography,2008,31(6):813-821.]
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[15]RAUP B,RACOVIEANU A,KHALSA S J S,et al.The GLIMS geospatial glacier database:A new tool for studying glacier change[J].Global and Planetary Change,2007,56(12):101-110.
[16]刘宇硕,秦翔,高思如,等.Landsat-5 TM影像在冰川面积信息提取中的精度评价[J].西北农林科技大学学报:自然科学版,2013,41(12):209-219.[LIU Yushuo,QIN Xiang,GAO Siru,et al.Accuracy evaluation of glacier area information extracted from Landsat-5 TM remote sensing image[J].Journal of Northwest A&F University:Natural Science Edition,2013,41(12):209-219.]
[17]何毅,杨太保.博格达峰地区气候变化特征及其对冰川变化的影响[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(10):1387-1396.[HE Yi,YANG Taibao.Climate variation and glacier response in the Bogda region,Tianshan Mountains[J].Progress in Geography,2014,33(10):1387-1396.]
[18]BOLCH T,MENOUNOS B,WHEATE R.Landsat-based inventory of glaciers in western Canada,1985—2005[J].Remote Sensing of Environment,2010,114(1):127-137.
[19]GRANSHAW F D,FOUNTAIN A G.Glacier change(1958—1998)in the north Cascades National Park complex[J].Journal of Glaciology,2006,52(177):251-256.
[20]BOLCH T,KAMP U.Glacier mapping in high mountains using DEMs,Landsat and Aster data[C]//Grazer Schriftender Geographie and Raumforschung.8th International Symposium on High Moutain Remote Sensing Cartograph.La Paz,Bolivia:2006,20-27 March.
[21]BAHR D B,MEIER M F,PECKHAM S D.The physical basis of glacier volume-area scaling[J].J Geophys Res,1997,43:557-562.
[22]LIU S Y,SUN W X,SHEN Y P,et al.Glacier changes since the little ice age maximum in the west Qiliang Shan,northwest China,and consequences of glacier runoff for water supply[J].J Glaciol,2003,49:117-124.
[23]BAHR D B,DYURGEROV M,MEIER M F.Sea-level rise from glaciers and ice caps:A lower bound[J].Geophys Res Lett,2009,36,doi:10.1029/2008GL036309.
[24]李开明,李忠勤,高闻宇,等.近期新疆东天山冰川退缩及其对水资源影响[J].科学通报,2011,56(32):2708-2716.[LI Kaiming,LI Zhongqin,GAO Wenyu,et al.Recent glacial retreat and its effect on water resources in eastern Xinjiang[J].Chinese Sci Bull,2011,56(32):2708-2716.]
[25]蒙彦聪,李忠勤,徐春海,等.中国西部冰川小冰期以来的变化——以天山乌鲁木齐河流域为例[J].干旱区地理,2016,39(3):486-494.[MENG Yancong,LI Zhongqin,XU Chunhai,et al.Glacier change of western China since the little ice age:A case of the Urumqi River Watershed[J].Arid Land Geography,2016,39(3):486-494.]
[26]谢自楚,刘潮海.冰川学导论[M].上海:上海科学普及出版社,2010:425.[XIE Zichu,LIU Chaohai.An introduction to glaciology[M].Shanghai:Shanghai Science and Technology Press,2010:425.]
[27]姚玉璧,肖国举,王润元,等.近50年来西北半干旱区气候变化特征[J].干旱区地理,2009,32(2):159-165.[YAO Yubi,XIAO Guoju,WANG Runyuan,et al.Semiarid climate change in northwest in nearly 50 years[J].Arid Land Geography,2009,32(2):159-165.]
[28]LING H B,XU H L,FU J Y,et al.Surface runoff processes and sustainable utilization of water resources in Manas River Basin,Xinjiang,China[J].Journal of Arid Land,2012,4(3):271-280.
[29]OSMONOV A,BOLCH T,CHEN X,et al.Glacier characteristics and changes in the Sary-Jaz River Basin(Central Tien Shan,Kyrgyzstan)1990—2010[J].Remote Sensing Latters,2013,44(8):725-734.
[30]怀保娟,李忠勤,孙美平,等.近40 a来天山台兰河流域冰川资源变化分析[J].地理科学,2014,34(2):229-236.[HUAI Baojuan,LI Zhongqin,SUN Meiping,et al.Glaciers change in the Tailan River Watershed in the last 40 years[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2014,34(2):229-236.]
[31]何毅,杨太保,田洪阵,等.近23年来北天山冰川面积变化对气候的响应[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(3):53-60.[HE Yi,YANG Taibao,TIAN Hongzhen,et al.Response of glacier area variation to climata change in northern Tianshan Mountains in the past 23 years[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2013,27(3):53-60.]
[32]赵刚,杨太保,田洪阵.1990—2011年南天山地区冰川面积变化对气候的响应[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(2):257-263.[ZHAO Gang,YANG Taibao,TIAN Hongzhen.Response of glacier area variation to climata change in southern Tianshan Mountains druing 1990—2011[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation.2014,21(2):257-263.]
[33]王淑红,谢自楚,李巧媛.近期东西天山冰川变化的对比研究[J].冰川冻土,2008,30(6):946-953.[WANG Shuhong,XIE Zichu,LI Qiaoyuan.Comparison study of glacier variations in east and west Tianshan Mountains[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2008,30(6):946-953.]
[2]YAO T,THOMPSON L,YANG W,et al.Different glacier status with atmospheric circulations in Tibetan Plateau and surroundings[J].Nature Climate Change,2012,9(2):663-667.
[3]何毅,杨太保,陈杰,等.1972—2013年东天山博格达峰地区冰川变化遥感监测[J].地理科学,2015,35(7):925-932.[HE Yi,YANG Taibao,CHEN Jie,et al.Remote sensing detection of glacier changes in Dong Tianshan Bogda region in 1972—2013[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2015,35(7):925-932.]
[4]PIAO S,CIAIS P,HUANG Y,et al.The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China[J].Nature,2010,467(7311):43.
[5]QIU J.Measuring the meltdown[J].Nature,2010,468(7321):141-2.
[6]姚檀栋,秦大河,沈永平,等.青藏高原冰冻圈变化及其对区域水循环和生态条件的影响[J].自然杂志,2013,35(3):179-186.[YAO Tandong,QIN Dahe,SHEN Yongping,et al.Cryospheric changes and their impacts on regional water cycle and ecological conditions in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau[J].Chinese Journal of Nature,2013,35(3):179-186.]
[7]孙从建,陈伟.天山山区典型内陆河流域径流组分特征分析[J].干旱区地理,2017,40(1):37-44.[SUN Congjian,CHEN Wei.Streamflow components in inland rivers in the Tianshan Mountains,northwest China[J].Arid Land Geography,2017,40(1):37-44.]
[8]沈永平,王国亚,丁永建,等.百年来天山阿克苏河流域麦茨巴赫冰湖演化与冰川洪水灾害[J].冰川冻土,2009,31(6):4-13.[SHEN Yongping,WANG Guoya,DING Yongjian,et al.Changes in Merzbacher Lake of Inylchek glacier and glacial flash floods in Aksu River Basin,Tianshan during the period of 1903—2009[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2009,31(6):4-13.]
[9]WANG X,LIU S,DING Y,et al.An approach for estimating the breach probabilities of moraine-dammed lakes in the Chinese Himalayas using remote-sensing data[J].Natural Hazards&Earth System Sciences,2012,12(10):3109-3122.
[10]NARAMA C,KAAB A,DUISHONAKUNOV M,et al.Spatial variability of recent glacier area changes in the Tien Shan Mountains,Central Asia,using Corona(~1970),Landsat(~2000),and Alos(~2007)satellite data[J].Global&Planetary Change,2010,71(1-2):42-54.
[11]何毅,杨太保,冀琴,等.中亚阿拉套地区冰川退缩与气候变化关系研究[J].干旱区地理,2014,37(5):908-915.[HE Yi,YANG Taibao,JI Qin,et al.Glacier shrinkage and its dependence on climate in the Central Asia Alatau Region[J].Arid Land Geography,2014,37(5):908-915.]
[12]HE Y,YANGT B,QIN J,et al.Glacier variation in response to climate change in Chinese Tianshan Mountains from 1989 to 2012[J].Journal of Mountain Science,2015,12(5):1189-1202.
[13]王叶堂,侯书贵,鲁安新,等.近40年来天山东段冰川变化及其对气候的响应[J].干旱区地理,2008,31(6):813-821.[WANG Yetang,HOU Shugui,LU Anxin,et al.Response of glacier variations in the eastern Tianshan Mountains to climate change,during the last 40 years[J].Arid Land Geography,2008,31(6):813-821.]
[14]王银生,刘潮海,丁良福,等.中国冰川目录(Ⅲ)—天山山区(东部散流内流区)[M].北京:科学出版社,1986:1-83.[WANG Yinsheng,LIU Chaohai,DING Liangfu,et al.Glacier inventory of China(III)Tianshan Mountains(interior drainage area of scattered flow in east)[M].Beijing:Science Press,1986:1-83.]
[15]RAUP B,RACOVIEANU A,KHALSA S J S,et al.The GLIMS geospatial glacier database:A new tool for studying glacier change[J].Global and Planetary Change,2007,56(12):101-110.
[16]刘宇硕,秦翔,高思如,等.Landsat-5 TM影像在冰川面积信息提取中的精度评价[J].西北农林科技大学学报:自然科学版,2013,41(12):209-219.[LIU Yushuo,QIN Xiang,GAO Siru,et al.Accuracy evaluation of glacier area information extracted from Landsat-5 TM remote sensing image[J].Journal of Northwest A&F University:Natural Science Edition,2013,41(12):209-219.]
[17]何毅,杨太保.博格达峰地区气候变化特征及其对冰川变化的影响[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(10):1387-1396.[HE Yi,YANG Taibao.Climate variation and glacier response in the Bogda region,Tianshan Mountains[J].Progress in Geography,2014,33(10):1387-1396.]
[18]BOLCH T,MENOUNOS B,WHEATE R.Landsat-based inventory of glaciers in western Canada,1985—2005[J].Remote Sensing of Environment,2010,114(1):127-137.
[19]GRANSHAW F D,FOUNTAIN A G.Glacier change(1958—1998)in the north Cascades National Park complex[J].Journal of Glaciology,2006,52(177):251-256.
[20]BOLCH T,KAMP U.Glacier mapping in high mountains using DEMs,Landsat and Aster data[C]//Grazer Schriftender Geographie and Raumforschung.8th International Symposium on High Moutain Remote Sensing Cartograph.La Paz,Bolivia:2006,20-27 March.
[21]BAHR D B,MEIER M F,PECKHAM S D.The physical basis of glacier volume-area scaling[J].J Geophys Res,1997,43:557-562.
[22]LIU S Y,SUN W X,SHEN Y P,et al.Glacier changes since the little ice age maximum in the west Qiliang Shan,northwest China,and consequences of glacier runoff for water supply[J].J Glaciol,2003,49:117-124.
[23]BAHR D B,DYURGEROV M,MEIER M F.Sea-level rise from glaciers and ice caps:A lower bound[J].Geophys Res Lett,2009,36,doi:10.1029/2008GL036309.
[24]李开明,李忠勤,高闻宇,等.近期新疆东天山冰川退缩及其对水资源影响[J].科学通报,2011,56(32):2708-2716.[LI Kaiming,LI Zhongqin,GAO Wenyu,et al.Recent glacial retreat and its effect on water resources in eastern Xinjiang[J].Chinese Sci Bull,2011,56(32):2708-2716.]
[25]蒙彦聪,李忠勤,徐春海,等.中国西部冰川小冰期以来的变化——以天山乌鲁木齐河流域为例[J].干旱区地理,2016,39(3):486-494.[MENG Yancong,LI Zhongqin,XU Chunhai,et al.Glacier change of western China since the little ice age:A case of the Urumqi River Watershed[J].Arid Land Geography,2016,39(3):486-494.]
[26]谢自楚,刘潮海.冰川学导论[M].上海:上海科学普及出版社,2010:425.[XIE Zichu,LIU Chaohai.An introduction to glaciology[M].Shanghai:Shanghai Science and Technology Press,2010:425.]
[27]姚玉璧,肖国举,王润元,等.近50年来西北半干旱区气候变化特征[J].干旱区地理,2009,32(2):159-165.[YAO Yubi,XIAO Guoju,WANG Runyuan,et al.Semiarid climate change in northwest in nearly 50 years[J].Arid Land Geography,2009,32(2):159-165.]
[28]LING H B,XU H L,FU J Y,et al.Surface runoff processes and sustainable utilization of water resources in Manas River Basin,Xinjiang,China[J].Journal of Arid Land,2012,4(3):271-280.
[29]OSMONOV A,BOLCH T,CHEN X,et al.Glacier characteristics and changes in the Sary-Jaz River Basin(Central Tien Shan,Kyrgyzstan)1990—2010[J].Remote Sensing Latters,2013,44(8):725-734.
[30]怀保娟,李忠勤,孙美平,等.近40 a来天山台兰河流域冰川资源变化分析[J].地理科学,2014,34(2):229-236.[HUAI Baojuan,LI Zhongqin,SUN Meiping,et al.Glaciers change in the Tailan River Watershed in the last 40 years[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2014,34(2):229-236.]
[31]何毅,杨太保,田洪阵,等.近23年来北天山冰川面积变化对气候的响应[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(3):53-60.[HE Yi,YANG Taibao,TIAN Hongzhen,et al.Response of glacier area variation to climata change in northern Tianshan Mountains in the past 23 years[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2013,27(3):53-60.]
[32]赵刚,杨太保,田洪阵.1990—2011年南天山地区冰川面积变化对气候的响应[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(2):257-263.[ZHAO Gang,YANG Taibao,TIAN Hongzhen.Response of glacier area variation to climata change in southern Tianshan Mountains druing 1990—2011[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation.2014,21(2):257-263.]
[33]王淑红,谢自楚,李巧媛.近期东西天山冰川变化的对比研究[J].冰川冻土,2008,30(6):946-953.[WANG Shuhong,XIE Zichu,LI Qiaoyuan.Comparison study of glacier variations in east and west Tianshan Mountains[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2008,30(6):946-953.]