三江源区大气水汽含量时空特征及其转化变化
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摘要
利用1979—2016年ERA-Interim再分析资料提供的1°×1°水汽通量和大气可降水量(PWV)数据,采用相关性分析、趋势分析法、累积距平及反距离加权(IDW)等方法,研究三江源地区PWV与水汽通量的时空分布特征和降水转化率(PCE)。结果表明:①过去38年来,经、纬向多年平均水汽通量分别为2. 0 kg/(m·s)、10. 3 kg/(m·s),水汽通量纬向增幅高于经向,水汽在纬向汇入为主,经向输出为主;②PWV呈微弱增多趋势,年平均PWV为1 791. 6～2 278. 9 mm,季节平均PWV为122. 2～1 134. 2 mm,不同季节内空间差异明显;③三江源区多年平均PCE为24. 6%,1989年最高,达32. 8%;季节与多年平均PCE空间分布一致,都表现出由东南向西北递减的变化特征,季节分布变化差异大;④该地区空中水资源丰富但自然PCE低,开发潜力大,应用前景广阔。
The spatial-temporal characteristics of precipitable water vapor and water-vapor flux as well as precipitation conversion efficiency in the Three River Headwaters Region were discussed through correlation analysis,trend analysis,accumulative anomaly and inverse distance weight based on relevant ERA-Interim reanalysis data from 1979—2016. Some conclusions could be drawn: ① The annual average water-vapor fluxes along the longitudinal and altitude directions in the past 38 years were 2. 0 kg/ (m·s) and 10. 3 kg/ (m·s),respectively. The altitude growth rate of water-vapor flux was higher than that of the longitudinal one. The altitude change of water vapor was mainly input,whereas the longitudinal change was mainly output. ② The precipitable water vapor increased slightly. The annual and seasonal means were 1 791. 6—2 278. 9 mm and 122. 2—1 134. 2 mm,respectively. The spatial difference in different seasons was significantly large. ③ The annual average precipitation conversion efficiency in the study area was 24. 6% and it reached the peak (32. 8%) in 1989. Constant spatial distribution was observed to seasonal and annual average precipitation conversion efficiencies. Both seasonal and annual average precipitation conversion efficiencies decreased gradually from southeast to northwest. Moreover,a great seasonal difference of precipitation conversion efficiency was recognized. ④ Although there were abundant atmospheric water resources in the study area,the natural precipitation conversion efficiency was low,which indicated the promising potentials for development.
The spatial-temporal characteristics of precipitable water vapor and water-vapor flux as well as precipitation conversion efficiency in the Three River Headwaters Region were discussed through correlation analysis,trend analysis,accumulative anomaly and inverse distance weight based on relevant ERA-Interim reanalysis data from 1979—2016. Some conclusions could be drawn: ① The annual average water-vapor fluxes along the longitudinal and altitude directions in the past 38 years were 2. 0 kg/ (m·s) and 10. 3 kg/ (m·s),respectively. The altitude growth rate of water-vapor flux was higher than that of the longitudinal one. The altitude change of water vapor was mainly input,whereas the longitudinal change was mainly output. ② The precipitable water vapor increased slightly. The annual and seasonal means were 1 791. 6—2 278. 9 mm and 122. 2—1 134. 2 mm,respectively. The spatial difference in different seasons was significantly large. ③ The annual average precipitation conversion efficiency in the study area was 24. 6% and it reached the peak (32. 8%) in 1989. Constant spatial distribution was observed to seasonal and annual average precipitation conversion efficiencies. Both seasonal and annual average precipitation conversion efficiencies decreased gradually from southeast to northwest. Moreover,a great seasonal difference of precipitation conversion efficiency was recognized. ④ Although there were abundant atmospheric water resources in the study area,the natural precipitation conversion efficiency was low,which indicated the promising potentials for development.
引文
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[18]任国玉,柳艳菊,孙秀宝,等.中国大陆降水时空变异规律:Ⅲ:趋势变化原因[J].水科学进展,2016,27(3):327-348.(REN G Y,LIU Y J,SUN X B,et al.Temporal and spatial variation of precipitation in Mainland China:III:causes of trend change[J].Advances in Water Science,2016,27(3):327-348.(in Chinese))
[19]范思睿,王维佳,刘东升,等.基于再分析资料的西南区域近50a空中水资源的气候特征[J].暴雨灾害,2014,33(1):65-72.(FAN S R,WANG W J,LIU D S,et al.Climate characteristics of nearly 50a air water resources in southwest region based on reanalysis data[J].Torrential Rain and Disasters,2014,33(1):65-72.(in Chinese))
[2]李颖,张俊东,罗鹏.大气可降水量估算模型研究[J].气象与环境科学,2013,36(2):21-25.(LI Y,ZHANG J D,LUOP.Study on estimating model of atmospheric precipitable water[J].Meteorological and Environmental Science,2013,36(2):21-25.(in Chinese))
[3]周秀骥.应加强开发利用西北地区空中水资源研究[J].科学新闻,2001,45(3):5.(ZHOU X J.Research on the development and utilization of air resources in the Northwest China should be strengthened[J].Science News,2001,45(3):5.(in Chinese))
[4]杨红梅,葛润生,徐宝祥.用单站探空资料分析对流层气柱水汽总量[J].气象,1998,24(9):9-12.(YANG H M,GE RS,XU B X.Analysis of total water vapor in tropospheric gas column using single station sounding data[J].Meteorology,1998,24(9):9-12.(in Chinese))
[5]李仑格.“三江源”地区近30年来可降水量和降水转化率的分析[C]//中国气象学会2007年年会人工影响天气科技进展与应用分会场论文集.北京:中国气象学会,2007:9.(LI L G.Analysis of precipitation amount and precipitation conversion rate in“Three River Region”in the past 30 years[C]//The 2007 Annual Meeting of the Chinese Meteorological Society for the Advancement of Weather Technology Progress and Application Submissions.Beijing:China Meteorological Society,2007:9.(in Chinese))
[6]徐晓华,刘宏康,罗佳.香港地区2013-2016年地基GPS大气可降水量与实际降雨量的比较[J].国防科技大学学报,2017,39(5):14-20,44.(XU X H,LIU H K,LUO J.Comparison of atmospheric precipitation and actual rainfall of ground-based GPSin Hong Kong 2013-2016[J].Journal of National University of Defense Technology,2017,39(5):14-20,44.(in Chinese))
[7]康晓燕,马学谦,韩辉邦,等.1981-2015年黄河上游河曲地区大气可降水量变化特征[J].干旱气象,2017,35(6):975-983.(KANG X Y,MA X Q,HAN H B,et al.Characteristics of atmospheric precipitation water change in Hequ area of the upper reaches of the Yellow River from 1981 to 2015[J].Journal of Arid Meteorology,2017,35(6):975-983.(in Chinese))
[8]LIU J L,RONALD E S.Water vapor fluxes over the Saskatchewan river basin[J].J Hydrometeor,2003(4):944-959.
[9]LIU J L,RONALD E S,KIT K S.Moisture transport and other hydrometeorological features associated with the severe 2000/01drought over the western and central Canadian Prairies[J].J Climate,2003,15:305-319.
[10]王宝鉴,黄玉霞,王劲松,等.祁连山云和空中水资源的季节分布和演变[J].地球科学进展,2006,21(9):948-955.(WANG B J,HUANG Y X,WANG J S,et al.Seasonal distribution and evolution of cloud water resources in Qilian Mountains[J].Advances in Earth Science,2006,21(9):948-955.(in Chinese))
[11]王炳忠,刘庚山.我国大陆大气水汽含量的计算[J].地理学报,1993,48(3):244-253.(WANG B Z,LIU G S.China's continental atmospheric water vapor content calculation[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,1993,48(3):244-253.(in Chinese))
[12]杨金虎,王鹏祥,白虎志,等.中国西北空中可降水量的年内非均匀性特征[J].干旱区地理,2008,31(2):182-188.(YANG J H,WANG P X,BAI H Z,et al.The annual non-uniformity of airborne precipitation in Northwest China[J].Arid Land Geography,2008,31(2):182-188.(in Chinese))
[13]李进,李栋梁,张杰.黄河流域夏季降水有效转化率[J].水科学进展,2012,23(3):346-354.(LI J,LI D L,ZHANGJ.The effective conversion rate of summer precipitation in the Yellow River basin[J].Advances in Water Science,2012,23(3):346-354.(in Chinese))
[14]赵玲,安沙舟,杨莲梅,等.1976-2007年乌鲁木齐可降水量及其降水转化率[J].干旱区研究,2010,27(3):433-437.(ZHAO L,AN S Z,YANG L M,et al.The precipitation and precipitation conversion rate of Urumqi in 1976-2007[J].Arid Land Research,2010,27(3):433-437.(in Chinese))
[15]周成龙,钟昕洁,杨兴华,等.新疆巴州地区降水量、可降水量及降水转化率计算解析[J].干旱区地理,2016,39(6):1204-1211.(ZHOU C L,ZHONG Y J,YANG X H,et al.Calculation and analysis of precipitation,precipitable water and precipitation conversion rate in Bazhou,Xinjiang[J].Arid Land Geography,2016,39(6):1204-1211.(in Chinese))
[16]卓嘎,边巴次仁,杨秀海,等.近30年西藏地区大气可降水量的时空变化特征[J].高原气象,2013,32(1):23-30.(ZHUO G,BIBA C R,YANG X H,et al.Temporal and spatial variation of atmospheric precipitable water in Tibet in recent 30years[J].Plateau Meteorology,2013,32(1):23-30.(in Chinese))
[17]刘云云,张雪琴.西北干旱区空中水资源的时空变化特征及其原因分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2011,7(6):385-392.(LIU Y Y,ZHANG X Q.Spatial-temporal changes of air resources in the arid regions of northwest China and their causes[J].Progress in Climate Change Research,2011,7(6):385-392.(in Chinese))
[18]任国玉,柳艳菊,孙秀宝,等.中国大陆降水时空变异规律:Ⅲ:趋势变化原因[J].水科学进展,2016,27(3):327-348.(REN G Y,LIU Y J,SUN X B,et al.Temporal and spatial variation of precipitation in Mainland China:III:causes of trend change[J].Advances in Water Science,2016,27(3):327-348.(in Chinese))
[19]范思睿,王维佳,刘东升,等.基于再分析资料的西南区域近50a空中水资源的气候特征[J].暴雨灾害,2014,33(1):65-72.(FAN S R,WANG W J,LIU D S,et al.Climate characteristics of nearly 50a air water resources in southwest region based on reanalysis data[J].Torrential Rain and Disasters,2014,33(1):65-72.(in Chinese))
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