基于全微分法的多主体梯级水电站群联合调度增益归因及分配
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摘要
公平、高效、合理的增益分配是开展多主体水库群联合优化调度的机制保障。以往基于水库库容、装机容量、发电量等单一指标或综合指标构建的按比例分摊方法,未能反映联合增益形成机制和径流变化对增益结果的影响。针对上述不足,本文将联合调度增益依照独立调度和联合调度情景下的效益差异进行逐项定量分解,提出基于全微分法的增益归因-分配模型:建立联合调度增益与时段弃水量、时段蓄量差、累积蓄量差的关系,采用全微分公式定量分解各水库增益贡献。实例结果表明:(1)全微分法可定量解构各水库各时段增益贡献及其物理成因机制,可得到满足增益分配基本原则的分配结果。(2)该方法综合考虑来水条件、水库参数、库群拓扑结构等因素对联合增益的综合影响,弥补了单一指标评价片面性的缺陷,避免了综合指标法中权重系数的确定问题及难以反映增益形成机理的问题。研究为多利益主体梯级水电站群增量效益分配问题提供了一种新的解决途径。
A fair, efficient and reasonable allocation is a mechanism guarantee of joint optimal operations of a multi-stakeholder cascade reservoirs system. The proportional allocation method, such as single index or comprehensive index based on reservoir storage capacity, installed capacity and annual power generation, is not able to analyze the physical mechanism of synergistic benefit and the influence of variable runoff conditions. In view of the above shortcomings, the synergistic benefit is quantitatively decomposed by terms according to the difference between the results under independent and joint operations model scenarios, and a synergistic benefit allocation model is developed in this study using the total differential equation. This model establishes the relationship between the incremental benefit and the volume of spillage during the period, the difference in the storage during the current period and cumulated difference in storage.The results show that the total differential method deconstructs the synergistic benefit contribution of each reservoir during each time period and verify its physical genetic mechanism,which satisfies the basic principles of synergistic benefit allocation. Moreover,this method considers the inflow conditions,reservoir characteristics, and the topological structure of the reservoirs system together, which overcomes the shortage of the single-index allocating model, and avoids the problem of determining the weight coefficient. Compared with the allocation method based on cooperative game models, this method only involves the calculation of single and joint operation model results of reservoir system, it reduces computational efforts for enumerating the synergistic benefit contribution under all coalition model scenarios. It provides a new way to solve the synergistic benefit allocation problem of a multi-stakeholder cascade hydropower stations.
A fair, efficient and reasonable allocation is a mechanism guarantee of joint optimal operations of a multi-stakeholder cascade reservoirs system. The proportional allocation method, such as single index or comprehensive index based on reservoir storage capacity, installed capacity and annual power generation, is not able to analyze the physical mechanism of synergistic benefit and the influence of variable runoff conditions. In view of the above shortcomings, the synergistic benefit is quantitatively decomposed by terms according to the difference between the results under independent and joint operations model scenarios, and a synergistic benefit allocation model is developed in this study using the total differential equation. This model establishes the relationship between the incremental benefit and the volume of spillage during the period, the difference in the storage during the current period and cumulated difference in storage.The results show that the total differential method deconstructs the synergistic benefit contribution of each reservoir during each time period and verify its physical genetic mechanism,which satisfies the basic principles of synergistic benefit allocation. Moreover,this method considers the inflow conditions,reservoir characteristics, and the topological structure of the reservoirs system together, which overcomes the shortage of the single-index allocating model, and avoids the problem of determining the weight coefficient. Compared with the allocation method based on cooperative game models, this method only involves the calculation of single and joint operation model results of reservoir system, it reduces computational efforts for enumerating the synergistic benefit contribution under all coalition model scenarios. It provides a new way to solve the synergistic benefit allocation problem of a multi-stakeholder cascade hydropower stations.
引文
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[8]刘涵,黄强,赵麦换.黄河干流供水发电补偿效益及其分配方案研究[J].水力发电学报,2003,22(2):24-30.
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[11]赵麦换,徐晨光,黄强,等.离差平方法在梯级水库补偿效益和综合水利工程费用分摊中的应用[J].水力发电学报,2004,23(6):1-4.
[12]钟平安,曹静,蔡杰.梯级水电站实时补偿增益多因素综合分配方法探讨[J].水力发电学报,2008,27(6):22-26.
[13] XU B,ZHONG P,ZAMBON R C,et al. Scenario tree reduction in stochastic programming with recourse for hydropower operations[J]. Water Resources Research,2015,51(8):6359-6380.
[14]陈悦云,梅亚东,蔡昊,等.面向发电、供水、生态要求的赣江流域水库群优化调度研究[J].水利学报,2018,49(5):628-638.
[15]徐斌,姚弘祎,储晨雪,等.金沙江下游至三峡-葛洲坝梯级水库群发电联合调度增益机制分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2018,16(1):195-202.
[16] FREDERICK K D,MAJOR D C. Climate change and water resources[J]. Climatic Change,1997,37(1):7-23.
[17]张树磊,杨大文,杨汉波,等. 1960—2010年中国主要流域径流量减小原因探讨分析[J].水科学进展,2015,26(5):605-613.
[18]徐斌,马昱斐,储晨雪,等.多主体水库群联合调度增益分配讨价还价模型[J].水力发电学报,2018,37(5):247-257.
[19]李想,魏加华,司源,等.权衡供水与发电目标的水库调度建模及优化[J].南水北调与水利科技,2015,13(5):973-979.
[20]郭乐,徐斌.三峡梯级水库群联合优化调度增发电量分析[J].水力发电,2016,42(12):90-93.
[2] MOLDEN D,SAKTHIVADIVEL A. Water according to assess use and productivity of water[J]. Water Resources Development,1999,15(1/2):55-71.
[3] BISWAS A K. Water for Sustainable Development in the 21st Century[M]. Oxford:Oxford University Press,1993.
[4]王浩,王旭,雷晓辉,等.梯级水库群联合调度关键技术发展历程与展望[J].水利学报,2019,50(1):25-37.
[5]赵懿旗,葛文研.水电站水库群联合补偿调度[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),1991,19(1):53-58.
[6]朱艳军,马光文,江拴丑,等.中小流域梯级水电站联合调度管理模式研究[J].华东电力,2010(4):577-579.
[7]王金龙,黄炜斌,马光文,等.市场环境下梯级水电站间发电补偿效益研究[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2016,48(3):79-86.
[8]刘涵,黄强,赵麦换.黄河干流供水发电补偿效益及其分配方案研究[J].水力发电学报,2003,22(2):24-30.
[9]赵先进.河流梯级调节水库投资的水头分摊法[J].贵州水力发电,1994(4):59-61.
[10]薛小杰,黄强,田峰巍,等.梯级水电站补偿效益分摊方法研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2001(4):45-47.
[11]赵麦换,徐晨光,黄强,等.离差平方法在梯级水库补偿效益和综合水利工程费用分摊中的应用[J].水力发电学报,2004,23(6):1-4.
[12]钟平安,曹静,蔡杰.梯级水电站实时补偿增益多因素综合分配方法探讨[J].水力发电学报,2008,27(6):22-26.
[13] XU B,ZHONG P,ZAMBON R C,et al. Scenario tree reduction in stochastic programming with recourse for hydropower operations[J]. Water Resources Research,2015,51(8):6359-6380.
[14]陈悦云,梅亚东,蔡昊,等.面向发电、供水、生态要求的赣江流域水库群优化调度研究[J].水利学报,2018,49(5):628-638.
[15]徐斌,姚弘祎,储晨雪,等.金沙江下游至三峡-葛洲坝梯级水库群发电联合调度增益机制分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2018,16(1):195-202.
[16] FREDERICK K D,MAJOR D C. Climate change and water resources[J]. Climatic Change,1997,37(1):7-23.
[17]张树磊,杨大文,杨汉波,等. 1960—2010年中国主要流域径流量减小原因探讨分析[J].水科学进展,2015,26(5):605-613.
[18]徐斌,马昱斐,储晨雪,等.多主体水库群联合调度增益分配讨价还价模型[J].水力发电学报,2018,37(5):247-257.
[19]李想,魏加华,司源,等.权衡供水与发电目标的水库调度建模及优化[J].南水北调与水利科技,2015,13(5):973-979.
[20]郭乐,徐斌.三峡梯级水库群联合优化调度增发电量分析[J].水力发电,2016,42(12):90-93.
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