许昌市1953～2016年降水时空变化特征分析
|
摘要
根据许昌市1953～2016年的日常气象降水资料,应用线性倾向估计、累积距平、滑动t检验、M-K突变分析法,对该区的年降水量、四季降水量的时空变化特征进行分析,结果表明:1953～2016年,许昌市多年平均降水量为726.34 mm,最大年降水量为1 132 mm(1961年),最小年降水量为413mm(1964年),年降水量的倾向率为-10.3 mm/10a,呈下降趋势;年内降水量分配严重不均,主要集中在夏秋两季;春季、夏季和冬季的降水量呈减少趋势,秋季降水量呈增加趋势;春季、秋季和冬季的降水没有明显突变年份,夏季降水显著突变时间区域为1998～2007年,年降水的突变点为2010年。
According to the daily meteorological precipitation data of Xuchang city from 1953 to 2016, using the linear trend estimation, the accumulative anomaly, the sliding t test, the M-K mutation analysis method to?analyze the annual precipitation and the spatial and temporal variation features of four-season precipitation. The results show that the average annual precipitation is 726.34 mm of Xuchang city, the max annual precipitation is 1132 mm(1961), the minimum annual precipitation is 413 mm(1964), and the annual precipitation trend rate is-10.3 mm/10 a from 1953 to 2016. Precipitation distribution of a year is seriously uneven. It is mainly concentrated in summer and autumn. Precipitation decreases in spring, summer and winter, and increases in autumn. There are no obvious precipitation mutation years of in spring,autumn and winter. The summer precipitation obvious mutation time is from 1998 to 2007, and the annual precipitation mutation point is 2010.
According to the daily meteorological precipitation data of Xuchang city from 1953 to 2016, using the linear trend estimation, the accumulative anomaly, the sliding t test, the M-K mutation analysis method to?analyze the annual precipitation and the spatial and temporal variation features of four-season precipitation. The results show that the average annual precipitation is 726.34 mm of Xuchang city, the max annual precipitation is 1132 mm(1961), the minimum annual precipitation is 413 mm(1964), and the annual precipitation trend rate is-10.3 mm/10 a from 1953 to 2016. Precipitation distribution of a year is seriously uneven. It is mainly concentrated in summer and autumn. Precipitation decreases in spring, summer and winter, and increases in autumn. There are no obvious precipitation mutation years of in spring,autumn and winter. The summer precipitation obvious mutation time is from 1998 to 2007, and the annual precipitation mutation point is 2010.
引文
[1]郭瑜,赵红领,杨海波,等.河南省近49a来降水变化特征分析[J].人民黄河,2012,34(10):46-48.
[2]王明学.许昌市气象灾害特点及对农业生产的影响[J].现代农业科技,2010(2):301-302.
[3]朱岐武,王艳平.开封市近50年的降水特征分析[J].黄河水利职业技术学院学报,2006(4):17-18.
[4]赵路伟,徐刚.河南省1961~2014年气温和降水量的时空变化特征[J].南水北调与水利科技,2016,14(3):17-23.
[5]陈敏.三门峡市近50年降水变化趋势及周期分析[J].气象与环境科学,2013,36(1):44-49.
[6]周念清,夏学敏,朱勍,等.许昌市水资源多模式联合调度与合理配置[J].南水北调与水利科技,2017,15(1):7-13.
[7]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].2版.北京:气象出版社,2008:58-67.
[2]王明学.许昌市气象灾害特点及对农业生产的影响[J].现代农业科技,2010(2):301-302.
[3]朱岐武,王艳平.开封市近50年的降水特征分析[J].黄河水利职业技术学院学报,2006(4):17-18.
[4]赵路伟,徐刚.河南省1961~2014年气温和降水量的时空变化特征[J].南水北调与水利科技,2016,14(3):17-23.
[5]陈敏.三门峡市近50年降水变化趋势及周期分析[J].气象与环境科学,2013,36(1):44-49.
[6]周念清,夏学敏,朱勍,等.许昌市水资源多模式联合调度与合理配置[J].南水北调与水利科技,2017,15(1):7-13.
[7]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].2版.北京:气象出版社,2008:58-67.