中国非金融企业资产负债的估算与国际比较——基于1953-1990年的数据研究
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摘要
非金融企业的资产负债表,是衡量宏观经济发展和金融风险的重要指标之一,现有文献对于相关数据的估算只推进到1991年。本文估算了1953-1990年中国非金融企业的资产和负债,并对中美两国情况进行了比较。研究发现:1953-1977年中国非金融企业负债不为0,这颠覆了人们的传统认识;使用永续盘存法推导出的1953年中国非金融企业资产与相关文献中的间接估算结果较接近;中国非金融企业负债率在1953-1981年与美国非金融非公司企业较为接近,1982-1990年则逐渐逼近美国非金融公司企业的数值。
The balance sheet of non-financial enterprises is one of the important indicators to measure macroeconomic development and financial risk.This paper estimates the assets and liabilities of non-financial enterprises in China for 1953-1990and makes a comparative analysis of the situation between China and the United States.The study finds that China's non-financial corporate debt is not 0 in 1953-1977,which subverts the traditional understanding;the asset data of China's non-financial enterprises in 1953,which was deduced from the perpetual inventory method,is close to the data in the indirect literature;China's non-financial corporate debt ratio is relatively close to the United States non-financial non corporate's in 1953-1981,and it gradually approaches the United States non-financial corporate's debt ratio in 1982-1990.
The balance sheet of non-financial enterprises is one of the important indicators to measure macroeconomic development and financial risk.This paper estimates the assets and liabilities of non-financial enterprises in China for 1953-1990and makes a comparative analysis of the situation between China and the United States.The study finds that China's non-financial corporate debt is not 0 in 1953-1977,which subverts the traditional understanding;the asset data of China's non-financial enterprises in 1953,which was deduced from the perpetual inventory method,is close to the data in the indirect literature;China's non-financial corporate debt ratio is relatively close to the United States non-financial non corporate's in 1953-1981,and it gradually approaches the United States non-financial corporate's debt ratio in 1982-1990.
引文
[1] Dickinson F. and F. Eakin,1936,“A Balance Sheet of The Nation's Economy,”Illinois:University of Illinois.
[2] Frécaut,O.,2017,“Systemic Banking Crises:Completing the Enhanced Policy Responses,”IMF Working Paper,(4):52-67.
[3] Chow G.,1993,“Capital Formation and Economic Growth in China,”The Quarterly Journal of Economics,11(8):209-242.
[4] Chow G.,2002,“China's Economic Growth:1952-2010,”Economic Development and Cultural,8(10):46-53.
[5] Jefferson G.,T. Rawski and Y. Zheng,1996,“Chinese Industrial Productivity:Trends,Measurement Issues,and Re-cent Developments,”Journal of Comparative Economics,15(10):146-180.
[6] Goldsmith R.,1951,“A Perpetual Inventory of National Wealths,”Studies in Income and Wealth,14(7):46-51.
[7]伯南克,2016,《行动的勇气:金融危机及其余波回忆录》,北京:中信出版集团。
[8]范巧,2012,“永续盘存法细节设定与中国资本存量估算:1952-2009年”,《云南财经大学学报》,第3期,第42-50页。
[9]贺菊煌,1992,“我国资产的估算”,《数量经济技术研究》,第8期,第25-27页。
[10]李扬、张晓晶、常欣,2013,《中国国家资产负债表2013———理论、方法与风险评估》,北京:中国社会科学出版社。
[11]李扬、张晓、常欣,2015,《中国国家资产负债表2015:杠杆调整与风险管理》,北京:中国社会科学出版社。
[12]马骏、张晓蓉、李治国,2012,《中国国家资产负债表研究》,北京:社会科学文献出版社。
[13]单豪杰,2008,“中国资本存量K的再估算:1952-2006年”,《数量经济技术研究》,第10期,第17-32页。
[14]王桂虎,2017,“1991-2015年中国非金融企业资产负债的估算与负债率的实证研究”,《上海经济研究》,第9期,第59-68页。
[15]王小鲁、樊纲,2000,《中国经济增长的可持续性:跨世纪的回顾与展望》,北京:经济科学出版社。
[16]叶宗裕,2010,“中国资本存量再估算:1952-2008”,《统计与信息论坛》,第7期,第39-41页。
[17]张军、吴桂英、张吉鹏,2004,“中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952-2000”,《经济研究》,第10期,第35-44页。
[2] Frécaut,O.,2017,“Systemic Banking Crises:Completing the Enhanced Policy Responses,”IMF Working Paper,(4):52-67.
[3] Chow G.,1993,“Capital Formation and Economic Growth in China,”The Quarterly Journal of Economics,11(8):209-242.
[4] Chow G.,2002,“China's Economic Growth:1952-2010,”Economic Development and Cultural,8(10):46-53.
[5] Jefferson G.,T. Rawski and Y. Zheng,1996,“Chinese Industrial Productivity:Trends,Measurement Issues,and Re-cent Developments,”Journal of Comparative Economics,15(10):146-180.
[6] Goldsmith R.,1951,“A Perpetual Inventory of National Wealths,”Studies in Income and Wealth,14(7):46-51.
[7]伯南克,2016,《行动的勇气:金融危机及其余波回忆录》,北京:中信出版集团。
[8]范巧,2012,“永续盘存法细节设定与中国资本存量估算:1952-2009年”,《云南财经大学学报》,第3期,第42-50页。
[9]贺菊煌,1992,“我国资产的估算”,《数量经济技术研究》,第8期,第25-27页。
[10]李扬、张晓晶、常欣,2013,《中国国家资产负债表2013———理论、方法与风险评估》,北京:中国社会科学出版社。
[11]李扬、张晓、常欣,2015,《中国国家资产负债表2015:杠杆调整与风险管理》,北京:中国社会科学出版社。
[12]马骏、张晓蓉、李治国,2012,《中国国家资产负债表研究》,北京:社会科学文献出版社。
[13]单豪杰,2008,“中国资本存量K的再估算:1952-2006年”,《数量经济技术研究》,第10期,第17-32页。
[14]王桂虎,2017,“1991-2015年中国非金融企业资产负债的估算与负债率的实证研究”,《上海经济研究》,第9期,第59-68页。
[15]王小鲁、樊纲,2000,《中国经济增长的可持续性:跨世纪的回顾与展望》,北京:经济科学出版社。
[16]叶宗裕,2010,“中国资本存量再估算:1952-2008”,《统计与信息论坛》,第7期,第39-41页。
[17]张军、吴桂英、张吉鹏,2004,“中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952-2000”,《经济研究》,第10期,第35-44页。