基于种群动态膜系统的大熊猫种群模型
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摘要
大熊猫谱系数据是研究大熊猫种群动态性的重要数据基础,因此从保护大熊猫的角度考虑,大熊猫生态系统的数据建模具有重要意义。针对该问题提出了一种使用种群动态膜系统对大熊猫生态系统进行数据建模的方法。基于中国动物园协会已发布的大熊猫谱系数据从大熊猫个体行为上来模拟研究中国大熊猫保护研究中心圈养大熊猫种群特征,详细分析繁殖参数的变化规律并加入野放模块,设计了一个符合其特点的具有两层嵌套膜结构、对象集合和一系列进化规则的种群动态膜系统。在该膜系统的仿真实验中得到的全体大熊猫仿真结果与实际数据的相对误差最大不超过±4.13%,基本控制在±2.7%以内。实验结果验证了该计算模型的有效性和正确性,能够模拟预测大熊猫种群的变化趋势,给管理者的决策提供依据。
Giant panda pedigree data is an important data base for studying the population dynamics of giant pandas.Therefore, it is of great significance for data modeling of giant panda ecosystems from the perspective of panda conservation.Focused on this issue, a data modeling method of giant panda ecosystem based on population dynamics P system was proposed.Based on the giant panda pedigree data released by Chinese Association of Zoological Gardens, the population characteristics of captive pandas were simulated and researched in China Giant Panda Conservation Research Center from individual behavior. The change rules of reproductive parameters were analyzed in detail, and added to the field released module. Eventually, a population dynamic P system for giant panda was designed releasing-to-the-wild with a two-layer nested membrane structure, a collection of objects and a series of evolution rules which is inline with the characteristics of giant panda. For all giant panda,the maximum relative error between the simulation results and the actual data was within ± 4. 13% and basically controlled within ± 2. 7% of P system. The experimental results verify the effectiveness and soundness of the proposed model. It can simulate the population dynamic change trend of giant panda and provide the basis for management decision-making.
Giant panda pedigree data is an important data base for studying the population dynamics of giant pandas.Therefore, it is of great significance for data modeling of giant panda ecosystems from the perspective of panda conservation.Focused on this issue, a data modeling method of giant panda ecosystem based on population dynamics P system was proposed.Based on the giant panda pedigree data released by Chinese Association of Zoological Gardens, the population characteristics of captive pandas were simulated and researched in China Giant Panda Conservation Research Center from individual behavior. The change rules of reproductive parameters were analyzed in detail, and added to the field released module. Eventually, a population dynamic P system for giant panda was designed releasing-to-the-wild with a two-layer nested membrane structure, a collection of objects and a series of evolution rules which is inline with the characteristics of giant panda. For all giant panda,the maximum relative error between the simulation results and the actual data was within ± 4. 13% and basically controlled within ± 2. 7% of P system. The experimental results verify the effectiveness and soundness of the proposed model. It can simulate the population dynamic change trend of giant panda and provide the basis for management decision-making.
引文
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[2]LIU J,LINDERMAN M,OUYANG Z,et al.Ecological degradation in protected areas:the case of Wolong nature reserve for giant pandas[J].Science,2001,292(5514):98-101.
[3]QI D W,HU Y B,GU X D,et al.Ecological niche modeling of the sympatric giant and red pandas on a mountain-range scale[J].Biodiversity and Conservation,2009,18(8):2127-2141.
[4]QI D W,ZHANG S N,ZHANG Z J,et al.Different habitat preferences of male and female giant pandas[J].Journal of Zoology,2011,285(3):205-214.
[5]QI D W,HU Y B,GU X D,et al.Quantifying landscape linkages among giant panda subpopulations in regional scale conservation[J].Integrative Zoology,2012,7(2):165-174.
[6]QI D W,ZHANG S N,ZHANG Z J,et al.Measures of giant panda habitat selection across multiple spatial scales for species conservation[J].The Journal of Wildlife Management,2012,76(5):1092-1100.
[7]ANDERSEN T,ELSER J J,HESSEN D O.Stoichiometry and population dynamics[J].Ecology Letters,2004,7(9):884-900.
[8]TANENTZAP A J,WALKER S,STEPHENS R T,et al.A framework for predicting species extinction by linking population dynamics with habitat loss[J].Conservation Letters,2012,5(2):149-156.
[9]UNGLAUB B,STEINFARTZ S,DRECHSLER A,et al.Linking habitat suitability to demography in a pond-breeding amphibian[J].Frontiers in Zoology,2015,12(1):1-10.
[10]ZHAN X,TAO Y,LI M,et al.Accurate population size estimates are vital parameters for conserving the giant panda[J].Ursus,2009,20(1):56-62.
[11]SWAISGOOD R R,WEI F,MCSHEA W J,et al.Can science save the giant panda(Ailuropoda melanoleuca)?Unifying science and policy in an adaptive management paradigm[J].Integrative Zoology,2011,6(3):290-296.
[12]STROHM S,TYSON R C.The effect of habitat fragmentation on cyclic population dynamics:a reduction to ordinary differential equations[J].Theoretical Ecology,2012,5(4):495-516.
[13]BAHUGUNA D,ABBAS S,DABAS J.Partial functional differential equation with an integral condition and applications to population dynamics[J].Nonlinear Analysis Theory Methods and Applications,2008,69(8):2623-2635.
[14]郭瑞海,袁晓凤.莱斯利矩阵及其应用---佛坪大熊猫种群发展的预测研究[J].西南民族大学学报:自然科学版,1996,22(2):175-178.(GUO R H,YUAN X F.Leslie matrix and its application:prediction on the development of the population of the giant panda in fuping[J].Journal of Southwest Nationalities College:Natural Science Edition,1996,22(2):175-178.)
[15]郭瑞海,袁晓凤,李光汉.中国成都大熊猫繁育研究基地大熊猫种群发展的预测研究[J].大自然探索,1997,16(2):73-76.(GUO R H,YUAN X F,LI G H.Predication on the development of the population of the giant panda in Chengdu research base of giant panda breeding[J].Exploration of Nature,1997,16(2):73-76.)
[16]ZHOU Z,PAN W.Analysis of the viability of a giant panda population[J].Journal of Applied Ecology,1997,34(2):363-374.
[17]GUO J,CHEN Y,HU J.Population viability analysis of giant pandas in the Yele nature reserve[J].Journal for Nature Conservation,2002,10(1):35-40.
[18]CARTER J,ACKLEH A S,LEONARD B P,et al.Giant panda(Ailuropoda melanoleuca)population dynamics and bamboo(subfamily Bambusoideae)life history:a structured population approach to examining carrying capacity when the prey are semelparous[J].Ecological Modelling,1999,123(2/3):207-223.
[19]GUO J,CHEN Y,ZHANG H,et al.A mathematical model for the population of giant pandas and bamboo in Yele nature reserve of Xiangling mountains[J].Journal for Nature Conservation,2002,10(2):69-74.
[20]LINDERMAN M A,AN L,BEARER S,et al.Modeling the spatio-temporal dynamics and interactions of households,landscapes,and giant panda habitat[J].Ecological Modelling,2005,183(1):47-65.
[21]GUI Z J,SONG G H,CHEN Y X.Computer numerical simulation of diffusion on the giant panda population dynamics models among small areas[J].Procedia Environmental Sciences,2012,13:2085-2090.
[22]XU W H,DONG R C,WANG X Z,et al.Impact of China's May12 earthquake on giant panda habitat in Wenchuan county[J].Journal of Applied Remote Sensing,2009,3(1):031655.
[23]ZHENG W,XU Y,LIAO L,et al.Effect of the Wenchuan earthquake on habitat use patterns of the giant panda in the Minshan mountains,southwestern China[J].Biological Conservation,2012,145(1):241-245.
[24]SHEN G,PIMM S L,FENG C,et al.Climate change challenges the current conservation strategy for the giant panda[J].Biological Conservation,2015,190:43-50.
[25]LI R Q,XU M,WONG M H G,et al.Climate change threatens giant panda protection in the 21st century[J].Biological Conservation,2015,182:93-101.
[26]CARDONA M,COLOMER M A,PREZ-JIMNEZ M J,et al.Modeling Ecosystems Using P Systems:the Bearded Vulture,a Case Study[M].Berlin:Springer-Verlag,2009:137-156.
[27]CARDONA M,COLOMER M A,MARGALIDA A,et al.A Psystem based model of an ecosystem of some scavenger birds[C]//Proceedings of the 10th international conference on Membrane Computing.Berlin:Springer-Verlag,2010,5957:182-195.
[28]CARDONA M,COLOMER M A,MARGALIDA A,et al.A computational modeling for real ecosystems based on P systems[J].Natural Computing,2011,10(1):39-53.
[29]MARGALIDA A,COLOMER M,SANUY D.Can wild ungulate carcasses provide enough biomass to maintain avian scavenger populations?an empirical assessment using a bio-inspired computational model[J].PLo S One,2011,6(5):e20248.
[30]MARGALIDA A,COLOMER M.Modelling the effects of sanitary policies on European vulture conservation[J].Scientific Reports,2012,2(2):753.
[31]COLOMER M,MARGALIDA A,SANUY D,et al.A bio-inspired computing model as a new tool for modeling ecosystems:the avian scavengers as a case study[J].Ecological Modelling,2011,222(1):33-47.
[32]黄志伟.概率膜系统在大熊猫种群动态性建模中的应用[D].成都:西南交通大学,2017:19-42.(HUANG Z W.Application of probabilistic membrane systems to model giant panda population data[D].Chengdu:Southwest Jiaotong University,2017:19-42.)
[33]黄志伟,张葛祥,齐敦武,等.概率膜系统在大熊猫种群数据建模中的应用[J].计算机系统应用,2017,26(8):258-262.(HUANG Z W,ZHANG G X,QI D W,et al.Application of probabilistic membrane systems to model giant panda population data[J].Computer Systems and Applications,2017,26(8):258-262.)
[34]PUN G.Computing with membranes[J].Journal of Computer and System Sciences,2000,61(1):108-143.
[35]张葛祥,潘林强.自然计算的新分支---膜计算[J].计算机学报,2010,33(2):208-214.(ZHANG G X,PAN L Q.A survey of membrane computing as a new branch of natural computing[J].Chinese Journal of Computers,2010,33(2):208-214.)
[36]张葛祥,程吉祥,王涛,等.膜计算:理论与应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2015:14-23.(ZHANG G X,CHENG J X,WANG T,et al.Membrane Computing:Theory and Applications[M].Beijing:Science Press,2015:14-23.)
[37]ZHANG G X,PREZ-JIMNEZ M J,GHEORGHE M.Rea-life Applications with Membrane Computing[M].Berlin:Springer International Publishing,2017:259-355.