基于云模型的PPP污水处理项目投资风险评价
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摘要
随着财政部下发《关于在公共服务领域深入推进政府和社会资本合作工作的通知》,要求在污水处理等公共服务领域广泛运用PPP模式,各地新建项目要"强制"应用PPP模式。于是,各地纷纷响应号召,PPP污水处理项目犹如雨后春笋。然而,由于风险管控经验不足,项目面临重重挑战,故提出基于云模型的风险评价体系。首先建立PPP污水处理项目投资风险评价指标体系,通过确定对应的标准云模型,利用正向云发生器求得云图,根据云图判断风险程度。在实例中运用此模型求得结果,将结果与项目实际情况进行比对,发现具有较高的拟合度,验证此方法的可操作性。
With the issuance of the "Notice on Deepening the Cooperation between Government and Social Capital in the Field of Public Service" issued by the Ministry of Finance. The PPP model needs to be widely used in public service areas such as sewage treatment and new projects in various places must "force" the application of the PPP Model. As a result, local governments have responded to the call, and PPP sewage treatment projects have sprung up. However, due to the lack of experience in risk management and control, the project faces many challenges, so this paper proposes a risk assessment system based on cloud model. Firstly, it establishes the investment assessment risk assessment index system of PPP sewage treatment project, determines the corresponding standard cloud model, uses the forward cloud generator to obtain the cloud map, and then compares the risk of the PPP sewage treatment project by image comparison so as to carry out the risk assessment of the project. In this example, the model is used to obtain the result, and the result is compared with the actual situation of the project. It is found that it has a high degree of fitness and the operability of the method is verified.
With the issuance of the "Notice on Deepening the Cooperation between Government and Social Capital in the Field of Public Service" issued by the Ministry of Finance. The PPP model needs to be widely used in public service areas such as sewage treatment and new projects in various places must "force" the application of the PPP Model. As a result, local governments have responded to the call, and PPP sewage treatment projects have sprung up. However, due to the lack of experience in risk management and control, the project faces many challenges, so this paper proposes a risk assessment system based on cloud model. Firstly, it establishes the investment assessment risk assessment index system of PPP sewage treatment project, determines the corresponding standard cloud model, uses the forward cloud generator to obtain the cloud map, and then compares the risk of the PPP sewage treatment project by image comparison so as to carry out the risk assessment of the project. In this example, the model is used to obtain the result, and the result is compared with the actual situation of the project. It is found that it has a high degree of fitness and the operability of the method is verified.
引文
[1] 罗媛媛.污水处理厂PPP项目的风险及投资决策的研究[D].杭州:浙江大学,2016.
[2] 王洪强,李皓,程敏.公共基础设施PPP项目定价研究——基于污水处理项目的定价模型应用[J].价格理论与实践,2015(11):141-143.
[3] 谭量.PPP模式下湘潭九华污水处理厂风险管理研究[D].湖南湘潭:湘潭大学,2017.
[4] 陈莉,张海侠.基于熵权-云模型的我国绿色智慧城市发展水平评价[J/OL].系统仿真学报:1-8[2018-09-11].http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/11.3092.V.20180904.1459.044.html.
[5] 阮永芬,高春钦,李志伟,等.基于改进AHP与熵权法的膨胀土胀缩等级云模型评价[J].江苏大学学报(自然科学版),2017,38(2):218-223.
[6] 叶琼,李绍稳,张友华,等.云模型及应用综述[J].计算机工程与设计,2011,32(12):4 198-4 201.
[7] 付斌,李道国,王慕快.云模型研究的回顾与展望[J].计算机应用研究,2011,28(2):420-426.
[8] 袁宏川,游佳成,贺骏.基于云模型的水利PPP项目投资风险评价[J].水电能源科学,2017,35(8):141-144.
[2] 王洪强,李皓,程敏.公共基础设施PPP项目定价研究——基于污水处理项目的定价模型应用[J].价格理论与实践,2015(11):141-143.
[3] 谭量.PPP模式下湘潭九华污水处理厂风险管理研究[D].湖南湘潭:湘潭大学,2017.
[4] 陈莉,张海侠.基于熵权-云模型的我国绿色智慧城市发展水平评价[J/OL].系统仿真学报:1-8[2018-09-11].http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/11.3092.V.20180904.1459.044.html.
[5] 阮永芬,高春钦,李志伟,等.基于改进AHP与熵权法的膨胀土胀缩等级云模型评价[J].江苏大学学报(自然科学版),2017,38(2):218-223.
[6] 叶琼,李绍稳,张友华,等.云模型及应用综述[J].计算机工程与设计,2011,32(12):4 198-4 201.
[7] 付斌,李道国,王慕快.云模型研究的回顾与展望[J].计算机应用研究,2011,28(2):420-426.
[8] 袁宏川,游佳成,贺骏.基于云模型的水利PPP项目投资风险评价[J].水电能源科学,2017,35(8):141-144.