AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING-TIANJIN-HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE
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摘要
Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration(ET_0) in this region was estimated using the Penman-Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature(T_(max)), minimum temperature(T_(min)), wind speed(V_w), net radiation(R_n) and water vapor pressure(P_(wv)) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows.(1)The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. V_wand R_ndecreased significantly, whereas T_(min), T_(max)and P_(wv)increased considerably.(2) In the BTH region, ET_0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET_0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET_0 was most sensitive to P_(wv)in the fall and winter and R_nin the spring and summer. On the annual scale,ET_0 was most sensitive to P_(wv), followed by R_n, V_w, T_(max)and T_(min). In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET_0 with respect to P_(wv)had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in P_(wv) can prevent ET_0 from increasing.(3)The sensitivity of ET_0 to T_(min) and T_(max) was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However,increases in temperature can lead to changes in P_(wv) and R_n. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the"evaporation paradox"phenomenon in the BTH region.
Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration(ET_0) in this region was estimated using the Penman-Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature(T_(max)), minimum temperature(T_(min)), wind speed(V_w), net radiation(R_n) and water vapor pressure(P_(wv)) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows.(1)The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. V_wand R_ndecreased significantly, whereas T_(min), T_(max)and P_(wv)increased considerably.(2) In the BTH region, ET_0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET_0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET_0 was most sensitive to P_(wv)in the fall and winter and R_nin the spring and summer. On the annual scale,ET_0 was most sensitive to P_(wv), followed by R_n, V_w, T_(max)and T_(min). In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET_0 with respect to P_(wv)had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in P_(wv) can prevent ET_0 from increasing.(3)The sensitivity of ET_0 to T_(min) and T_(max) was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However,increases in temperature can lead to changes in P_(wv) and R_n. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the"evaporation paradox"phenomenon in the BTH region.
Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration(ET_0) in this region was estimated using the Penman-Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature(T_(max)), minimum temperature(T_(min)), wind speed(V_w), net radiation(R_n) and water vapor pressure(P_(wv)) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows.(1)The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. V_wand R_ndecreased significantly, whereas T_(min), T_(max)and P_(wv)increased considerably.(2) In the BTH region, ET_0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET_0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET_0 was most sensitive to P_(wv)in the fall and winter and R_nin the spring and summer. On the annual scale,ET_0 was most sensitive to P_(wv), followed by R_n, V_w, T_(max)and T_(min). In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET_0 with respect to P_(wv)had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in P_(wv) can prevent ET_0 from increasing.(3)The sensitivity of ET_0 to T_(min) and T_(max) was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However,increases in temperature can lead to changes in P_(wv) and R_n. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the"evaporation paradox"phenomenon in the BTH region.
引文
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[15]RODERICK M L,FARQUHAR G D.Changes in New Zealand pan evaporation since the 1970s[J].Int JClimatol,2010,25(15):2031-2039.
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[24]ZHANG B,WANG Y X,HAO J M.Simulating aerosol-radiation-cloud feedbacks on meteorology and air quality over eastern China under severe haze conditions in winter[J].Atmos Chem Phys Discussions,2014,14(19):2387-2404.
[25]MCCUEN R H.A sensitivity and error analysis of procedures used for estimating evaporation[J].Water Resour Bull,1974,10(3):486-498.
[26]DJAMAN K,TABARI H,BALDE A B,et al.Analyses calibration and validation of evapotranspiration models to predict grass-reference evapotranspiration in the Senegal River Delta[J].J Hydrol Regional Studies,2016,8(C):82-94.
[27]KAHYA E,KALAYCL S.Trend analysis of stream flow in Turkey[J].J Hydrol,2004,289(1-4):128-144.
[28]SUN Peng,ZHANG Qiang,CHEN Xiao-hong,et al Spatio-temporal patterns of sediment and runoff changes in the Poyang Lake Basin and underlying causes[J].Acta Geograph Sinica,2010,65(7):828-840(in Chinese).
[2]CHEN S,LIU Y,THOMAS A.Climatic change on the Tibetan Plateau:Potential evapotranspiration trends from1961-2000[J].Clim Change,2006,76(3-4):291-319.
[3]WANG Y J,LIU B,SU B D,et al.Trends of calculated and simulated actual evaporation in the Yangtze River Basin[J].J Clim,2011,24(24):4494-4507.
[4]ROSENBERG N J,BLAD B L,VERMA S B,et al.Microclimate:the biological environment[M].New York:Wiley Press,1983.
[5]IPCC:Climate change 2013.The physical science basis.contribution of Working Group I to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2013.
[6]XU C Y,GONG L,JIANG T,et al.Analysis of spatial distribution and temporal trend of reference evapotranspiration and pan evaporation in Changjiang(Yangtze River)catchment[J].J Hydrol,2006,327:81-93.
[7]HESSE C,KRYSANOVA V,STEFANOVA A,et al Assessment of climate change impacts on water quantity and quality of the multi-river Vistula Lagoon catchment[J].Int Assoc Sci Hydrol Bull,2015,60(5):890-911.
[8]SENTELHAS P C,GILLESPIE T J,SANTOS E AEvaluation of FAO Penman-Monteith and alternative methods for estimating reference evapotranspiration with missing data in Southern Ontario,Canada[J].Agricul Water Manage,2010,97(5):635-644.
[9]LIU Chang-ming,ZHANG Dan.Temporal and spatial change analysis of the sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration to meteorological influencing factors in China[J].Acta Geogr Sinica,2011,66(5):579-588(in Chinese).
[10]PETERSON T C,GOLUBEV V S,GROISMAN P Y.Evaporation losing its strength[J].Nature,1995,377(6551):687-688.
[11]COHEN S,IANETZ A,STANHILL G.Evaporative climate changes at Bet-Dagan,Israel,1964-1998[J].Agric Forest Meteor,2002,111(2):83-91.
[12]GONG L B,XU C Y,CHEN D,et al.Sensitivity of the Penman-Monteith reference evapotranspiration to key climatic variables in the Changjiang basin[J].J Hydrol,2006,329(3-4):620-629.
[13]XU Y P,PAN S,FU G,et al.Future potential evapotranspiration changes and contribution analysis in Zhejiang Province,East China[J].J Geophys Res Atmos,2014,119(5):2174-2192.
[14]SHAHZADA A,KALIM U,AZMAT H,et al.Meteorological impacts on evapotranspiration in different climatic zones of Pakistan[J].J Arid Land,2017,9(6):938-952.
[15]RODERICK M L,FARQUHAR G D.Changes in New Zealand pan evaporation since the 1970s[J].Int JClimatol,2010,25(15):2031-2039.
[16]STANHILL G,COHEN S.Global dimming:a review of the evidence for a widespread and significant reduction in global radiation with discussion of its probable causes and possible agricultural consequences[J].Agric Forest Meteor,2001,107(4):255-278.
[17]LIANG Li-qiao,LI Li-juan,ZHANG Li,et al.Sensitivity of Penman-Monteith reference crop evapotranspiration in Tao’er River basin of Northeastern China[J].Chin Geograph Sci,2008,18(4):340-347(in Chinese).
[18]YIN Y,WU S,CHEN G,et al.Attribution analyses of potential evapotranspiration changes in China since the1960s[J].Theor Appl Climatol,2010,101(1-2):19-28.
[19]HUPET F,VANCLOOSTER M,Effect of the sampling frequency of meteorological variables on the estimation of the reference evapotranspiration[J].J Hydrol,2001,243(3):192-204.
[20]SUMNER D M,JACOBS J M.Utility of Penman-Monteith,Priestley-Taylor,reference evapotranspiration,and pan evaporation methods to estimate pasture evapotranspiration[J].J Hydrol,2005,308(1-4):81-104.
[21]RODERICK M L,FARQUHAR G D.The cause of decreased pan evaporation over the past 50 years[J].Science,2002,298(5597):1410-1411.
[22]JACOBSON M Z,KAUFMAN Y J,RUDICH Y.Examining feedbacks of aerosols to urban climate with a model that treats 3-D clouds with aerosol inclusions[J].JGeophys Res Atmos,2007,112(D24):1-18.
[23]PARK R J,KIM M J,JEONG J I,et al.A contribution of brown carbon aerosol to the aerosol light absorption and its radiative forcing in East Asia[J].Atmos Environ,2010,44(11):1414-1421.
[24]ZHANG B,WANG Y X,HAO J M.Simulating aerosol-radiation-cloud feedbacks on meteorology and air quality over eastern China under severe haze conditions in winter[J].Atmos Chem Phys Discussions,2014,14(19):2387-2404.
[25]MCCUEN R H.A sensitivity and error analysis of procedures used for estimating evaporation[J].Water Resour Bull,1974,10(3):486-498.
[26]DJAMAN K,TABARI H,BALDE A B,et al.Analyses calibration and validation of evapotranspiration models to predict grass-reference evapotranspiration in the Senegal River Delta[J].J Hydrol Regional Studies,2016,8(C):82-94.
[27]KAHYA E,KALAYCL S.Trend analysis of stream flow in Turkey[J].J Hydrol,2004,289(1-4):128-144.
[28]SUN Peng,ZHANG Qiang,CHEN Xiao-hong,et al Spatio-temporal patterns of sediment and runoff changes in the Poyang Lake Basin and underlying causes[J].Acta Geograph Sinica,2010,65(7):828-840(in Chinese).