基于气温的城市燃气短期日负荷预测模型——以四川省成都地区为例

详细信息    查看全文 | 推荐本文 |

英文篇名：A short-term forecasting model of city gas daily load based on air temperature 作者：何春蕾 ; 段言志 ; 邬宗婧 ; 杨光道 英文作者：He Chunlei1,2,Duan Yanzhi1,Wu Zongjing3,Yang Guangdao4(1.School of Energy Resources,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu,Sichuan 610059,China;2.Natural Gas Economics Research Institute of Southwest Oil & Gasfield Company,PetroChina,Chengdu,Sichuan 610051,China;3.Sichuan Petroleum Construction Company,Chuanqing Drilling Engineering Company,CNPC,Chengdu,Sichuan 610051,China;4.Chuanxi Division of Chuanqing Oil Drilling Engineering Co.,Ltd.,CNPC,Chengdu,Sichuan 610051,China) 关键词：气温 ; 城市燃气 ; 短期需求量 ; 日负荷 ; 预测模型 ; 成都地区 英文关键词：air temperature,urban gas,long-term gas demand,daily load,forecasting model,Chengdu 中文刊名：TRQG 英文刊名：Natural Gas Industry 机构：成都理工大学能源学院;中国石油西南油气田公司天然气经济研究所;中国石油川庆钻探工程公司油建公司;中国石油川庆钻探工程公司川西钻探公司; 出版日期：2013-04-28 08:14 出版单位：天然气工业 年：2013 期：v.33;No.234 语种：中文; 页：TRQG201304030 页数：4 CN：04 ISSN：51-1179/TE 分类号：138-141

摘要

随着城市燃气用气规模的不断增长,加上近年来冬季长期低温、气温骤降等极端天气屡屡出现,因气温变化导致的日用气峰谷差有扩大的趋势,采用中长期数据进行趋势预测可能存在较大误差。而利用短期的气温、用气负荷数据,结合较为准确的一周内气象预报对未来几天内的城市燃气日负荷进行预测,对上游供气企业、城市燃气公司合理安排销售计划和日调峰等具有重要的现实意义。为此,通过分析气温对城市燃气短期日负荷的影响机理,利用统计学和化学动力学理论,基于阿累尼乌斯方程反应的温度—化学反应速率关系,考虑气温突变、低温累积等因素构建了气温对城市燃气短期日负荷的预测模型,并利用成都地区短期的气温、用气负荷数据,测算了模型参数并对模型进行了验证(最大误差为2.53%)。结果表明,该模型的预测精度较高,可为燃气公司或上游供气企业合理安排销售计划和日调峰等提供决策支撑。
        The need for city gas consumption is rapidly increasing in present China.Moreover,such extreme weather as long-term low temperatures or sudden drop in temperature frequently strikes in winter times in recent years.As a result,the valley-to-peak distance of daily gas consumption in cities is extending due to a great temperature change.In this case,if the previous medium-and long-term data is adopted,a big error will occur in the tendency prediction of city gas consumption.Therefore,this paper,by use of the short-term data including air temperature and gas load,suggests a method of predicting the city gas daily load in the coming days according to the relatively accurate weather forecast within a week.This will be of great significance to reasonable sales planning and daily peak shaving for either upstream gas suppliers or city gas operators.To this end,how the air temperature affects the short-term daily load of city gas was first discussed;then the theories like statistics and chemical kinetics were used as well as the temperature-chemical reaction rate relationship reflected from the Arrhenius law;and finally a short-term prediction model was established for the city gas daily load taking into account many factors such as sudden change in temperature,low temperature cumulative effect,etc.In a case study performed in Chengdu,a big city in Southwest China,this model was also validated with the maximum error of 2.53%.The result shows that this model with a high accuracy of prediction will provide robust support for urban gas companies or upstream gas suppliers to make right decision in their sales planning and daily peak shaving.

引文

[1]焦文玲,严铭卿,廉乐明.城市燃气负荷的灰色预测[J].煤气与热力,2001,21(5):387-389.JIAO Wenling,YAN Mingqing,LIAN Leming.Grey predic-tion of city gas load[J].Gas&Heat,2001,21(5):387-389.
    [2]焦文玲,秦裕琨,赵林波.城市燃气负荷预测系统体系研究[J].天然气工业,2005,25(1):155-157.JIAO Wenling,QIN Yukun,ZHAO Linbo.Study on for-casting system of city gas load[J].Natural Gas Industry,2005,25(1):155-157.
    [3]谭羽非,陈家新,焦文玲,等.基于人工神经网络的城市煤气短期负荷预测[J].煤气与热力,2001,21(3):199-202.TAN Yufei,CHEN Jiaxin,JIAO Wenling,et al.Applying BP artificial neural network to forecast urban gas short-term load[J].Gas&Heat,2001,21(3):199-202.
    [4]田一梅,赵元,赵新华.城市煤气负荷的预测[J].煤气与热力,1998,18(4):20-23.TIAN Yimei,ZHAO Yuan,ZHAO Xinhua.Study of load forecasting for urban gas supply[J].Gas&Heat,1998,18(4):20-23.
    [5]张中秀,周伟国,梁金凤.气象条件对冬季城市燃气日用气量的影响[J].天然气技术,2007,1(4):56-58.ZHANG Zhongxiu,ZHOU Weiguo,LIANG Jinfeng.How weather condition affecting city gas daily consumption in winter[J].Natural Gas Technology,2007,1(4):56-58.
    [6]张中秀,周伟国,潘艳,等.气象因素对城市燃气日用气量的影响[J].建筑热能通风空调,2008,27(4):93-96.ZHANG Zhongxiu,ZHOU Weiguo,PAN Yan,et al.Influ-ence of weather condition on daily urban gas consumption[J].Building Energy&Environment,2008,27(4):93-96.
    [7]姜子昂,邹晓琴,段言志,等.川渝地区城市燃气用气量定量预测模型研究[J].城市燃气,2011(6):4-10.JIANG Zi'ang,ZOU Xiaoqin,DUAN Yanzhi,et al.The gas consumption forecast model research in Sichuan&Chongqing area[J].Urban Gas,2011(6):4-10.