基于总量调控和结构优化视角的我国经济高质量发展财政政策
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摘要
基于总量和结构视角运用TVTP-MS-FAVAR模型研究我国财政政策对经济增长的动态影响,结果表明:在经济适速增长阶段,积极的财政政策能带动经济增长,以提高教科研支出和增值税、降低投资性支出和营业税为主,以降低一般公共服务支出、消费税和所得税为辅的财政政策有利于经济高质量发展。在经济高速增长阶段,增加财政支出和税收能带动经济增长,以降低教科研支出和营业税、提高投资性支出和增值税为主,以提高一般公共服务支出、消费税和所得税为辅的财政政策有利于经济高速增长。
This paper uses the TVTP-MS-FAVAR model to study the dynamic effects of Chinese fiscal policies on economic growth based on the total and structural perspective.Rresults show that:firstly,in the period of moderate economic growth,positive fiscal policies can drive economic growth,raising education and scientific research expenditure and value-added tax,reducing investment expenditure and business tax as the main instrument,reducing general public service expenditure,consumption tax and income tax as the supplement,are conducive to high quality economic development.Secondly,in the period of rapid economic growth,raising fiscal expenditure and taxation can drive economic growth,reducing education and scientific research expenditure and business tax,raising investment expenditure and value-added tax as the main instrument,raising general public service expenditure,consumption tax and income tax as the supplement are conducive to rapid economic growth.
This paper uses the TVTP-MS-FAVAR model to study the dynamic effects of Chinese fiscal policies on economic growth based on the total and structural perspective.Rresults show that:firstly,in the period of moderate economic growth,positive fiscal policies can drive economic growth,raising education and scientific research expenditure and value-added tax,reducing investment expenditure and business tax as the main instrument,reducing general public service expenditure,consumption tax and income tax as the supplement,are conducive to high quality economic development.Secondly,in the period of rapid economic growth,raising fiscal expenditure and taxation can drive economic growth,reducing education and scientific research expenditure and business tax,raising investment expenditure and value-added tax as the main instrument,raising general public service expenditure,consumption tax and income tax as the supplement are conducive to rapid economic growth.
引文
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[2]方红生,张军.中国财政政策非线性稳定效应:理论和证据[J].管理世界,2010(2):10-24,186.
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[4]陈博,倪志良.税收竞争对我国区域经济增长的非线性作用研究——基于动态面板与门限面板模型的分析[J].现代财经(天津财经大学学报),2016(12):73-85.
[5]刘清杰,任德孝.中国地区间税收竞争刺激经济增长了吗[J].广东财经大学学报,2017(4):92-103.
[6]Majoul A,Daboussi O M.The Effects of Fiscal Policy in Great Recession by Using Panel Smooth Transition Regression(PSTR):Evidence from Emerging Market[J].International Journal of Business and Economics Research,2014,3(2):99-107.
[7]Srithongrung A,Kriz K A.The Impact of Subnational Fiscal Policies on Economic Growth:A Dynamic Analysis Approach[J].Journal of Policy Analysis and Management,2014,33(4):912-928.
[8]童大龙,何塞,储德银.我国税收政策对经济增长的非线性效应研究——基于总量与结构效应双重视角的实证分析[J].商业经济与管理,2015(3):23-33.
[9]卞志村,杨源源.结构性财政调控与新常态下财政工具选择[J].经济研究,2016(3):66-80.
[10]Sims C A.Comparison of Interwar and Postwar Business Cycles:Monetarism Reconsidered[J].The American Economic Review,1980,70(2):250-257.
[11]Hamilton J D.A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle[J].Econometrica,1989,57(2):357-384.
[12]任爱华,刘欢.财政政策对产业结构优化的非线性效应[J].财经科学,2017(6):104-114.
[13]张龙,贾明德.改革开放以来我国财政政策效应的实证研究[J].软科学,2008(5):76-80.
(1)税收中未包含比重较小的资源税、城市维护建设税、房产税等,营业税虽然已经在2017年取消,但鉴于它在税收中有较大比重,结合本文的分析区间,后文分析中仍然需要对营业税效果进行分析,其他地方不再解释。
[2]方红生,张军.中国财政政策非线性稳定效应:理论和证据[J].管理世界,2010(2):10-24,186.
[3]Woodford M.Optimal Monetary Stabilization Policy[J].Handbook of Monetary Economics,2010(3):723-828.
[4]陈博,倪志良.税收竞争对我国区域经济增长的非线性作用研究——基于动态面板与门限面板模型的分析[J].现代财经(天津财经大学学报),2016(12):73-85.
[5]刘清杰,任德孝.中国地区间税收竞争刺激经济增长了吗[J].广东财经大学学报,2017(4):92-103.
[6]Majoul A,Daboussi O M.The Effects of Fiscal Policy in Great Recession by Using Panel Smooth Transition Regression(PSTR):Evidence from Emerging Market[J].International Journal of Business and Economics Research,2014,3(2):99-107.
[7]Srithongrung A,Kriz K A.The Impact of Subnational Fiscal Policies on Economic Growth:A Dynamic Analysis Approach[J].Journal of Policy Analysis and Management,2014,33(4):912-928.
[8]童大龙,何塞,储德银.我国税收政策对经济增长的非线性效应研究——基于总量与结构效应双重视角的实证分析[J].商业经济与管理,2015(3):23-33.
[9]卞志村,杨源源.结构性财政调控与新常态下财政工具选择[J].经济研究,2016(3):66-80.
[10]Sims C A.Comparison of Interwar and Postwar Business Cycles:Monetarism Reconsidered[J].The American Economic Review,1980,70(2):250-257.
[11]Hamilton J D.A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle[J].Econometrica,1989,57(2):357-384.
[12]任爱华,刘欢.财政政策对产业结构优化的非线性效应[J].财经科学,2017(6):104-114.
[13]张龙,贾明德.改革开放以来我国财政政策效应的实证研究[J].软科学,2008(5):76-80.
(1)税收中未包含比重较小的资源税、城市维护建设税、房产税等,营业税虽然已经在2017年取消,但鉴于它在税收中有较大比重,结合本文的分析区间,后文分析中仍然需要对营业税效果进行分析,其他地方不再解释。