货币政策对收入不平等的影响效应——基于122个国家面板数据的研究
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摘要
通过对122个国家1980-2012年面板数据的分析,研究了货币政策对收入不平等的影响效应。实证结果表明,紧缩性的利率政策会导致收入不平等现象加剧,但是数量型的货币政策对收入不平等影响并不显著。通过对分位数收入人群的对比发现,利率上升对低收入人群收入水平下降具有显著作用,可能会使得高收入人群的收入水平上升但其作用并不显著。通过传导机制的检验发现,利率政策的调整通过对资本形成与就业的影响进而改变收入分配的状况。进一步研究发现,在OECD国家中投资率的上升导致富人收入比穷人更快增长,从而导致收入不平等恶化。
We investigate how money policy influences income inequality, using the panel data of 122 countries from 1980 to 2012. It shows that tightening interest rates will exacerbate income inequality, but quantitative monetary policy has little effect on income inequality. The quantiles of different income groups are considered, and it is evident that the increase of interest rate has a significant effect on the decline of income level of the low income population, which may make the income level of the high income population rise but the effect is not significant. The result of transmission mechanism test finds that the adjustment of interest rate policy can change income distribution through affecting capital formation and employment. There is further evidence that the increase of investment rate leads to the faster growth of the income of the rich than that of the poor, which aggravates income inequality.
We investigate how money policy influences income inequality, using the panel data of 122 countries from 1980 to 2012. It shows that tightening interest rates will exacerbate income inequality, but quantitative monetary policy has little effect on income inequality. The quantiles of different income groups are considered, and it is evident that the increase of interest rate has a significant effect on the decline of income level of the low income population, which may make the income level of the high income population rise but the effect is not significant. The result of transmission mechanism test finds that the adjustment of interest rate policy can change income distribution through affecting capital formation and employment. There is further evidence that the increase of investment rate leads to the faster growth of the income of the rich than that of the poor, which aggravates income inequality.
引文
[1] Benoit Coeure. What can monetary policy do about inequality?[EB/OL].Available at: https: www.ecb.int /press/key /date /2012 /html /sp121017.en.html.
[2] Dabla-Norris E, Kochhar K, Suphaphiphat N, et al.Causes and consequences of income inequality: a global perspective[J].IMF Staff Discussion Notes,2015,15(13):46-88.
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[21] 丁攀,李素芳.中国货币政策对城乡居民收入的有效性研究--FAVAR模型的全视角分析[J].经济科学,2014(4):39-49.
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[23] 周源.货币政策的收入分配效应研究[J].西安电子科技大学学报(社会科学版),2016(5):26-32.
[24] Harding A. Life time vs annual tax-transfer incidence[J]. The Economic Record, 1993, 69(1):245-273.
[25] Hassan F M. Effects of personal income tax on income distribution: Example from Bulgaria[J]. Contemporary Economic Policy,1996(10):11-23.
[26] Lambert P J.The distribution and redistribution of income[M]. Manchester :Manchester University Press,2001.
[27] Clark T, Leicester A. Inequality and two decades of British tax and benefit reforms [J]. Fiscal Studies ,2004,25(2):129-158.
[28] 刘文文,杨娟,冯唐人.货币政策与收入差距--来自中美加德四国的比较研究 [J].宏观经济研究,2016(3):149-159.
[29] 陈金至,尹依依,钱程.汇率制度与收入不平等[J].国际金融研究,2017(8):43-53.
[30] 许明,刘长庚.区域经济发展水平与城乡收入不平等--基于我国29省际面板数据的实证分析[J].经济问题探索,2015(1):89-95.
[31] Kuznets S. Economic growth and income inequality[J].American Economic Review,1955,45(1):1-28.
[32] Adelman I, Morris C T.Economic growth and social equity in developing countries [J].American Political Science Association,1973,70(1):145-168.
[33] Braulke M.A note on Kuznets' U [J]. Review of Economics and Statistics, 1973, 65 (1):135-139.
[34] Borro R J. Inequality and growth in a panel of countries[J]. Journal of Economic Growth, 2000,5(1):5-32.
[35] Nielsen F,Alderson A S.Trends in income inequality in the United States[J]. Springer U S ,2001(1):355-385.
[36] 傅振邦,陈先勇.城市化、产业结构变动与城乡收入差距--以湖北省为例[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2012(6):8-14.
[37] 程莉,周宗社.结构偏差、滞后城市化与城乡收入差距[J].经济经纬,2014(1):20-25.
[38] Doepke M, Schneider M.Aggregate implications of wealth redistribution: the case of inflation[J].Journal of the European Economic Association, 2006,4(3):493-502.
[39] Mincer J.Schooling,experience and earnings[R].Cambridge:National Bureau of Economic Research,1974:83-96.
[40] 李实,魏众,丁赛.中国居民财产分布不均等及其原因的经验分析[J].经济研究, 2005(6):4-15.
[41] 陈彦斌,陈伟,陈军,等.中国通货膨胀对财产不平等的影响[J].经济研究,2013(8):4-15.
[42] Becker G,Chiswick B R. Education and the distribution of earning[J].American Economic Review,1966,56(1):363-365.
[43] Boulier B L. The effects of demoographic variables on income distribution[R]. Research Program in Economic Development, Woodrow Wilson School Princeton University:Discussion Paper,1975,NO61.
[44] Perotii R. Growth,income distribution, and democracy:what the data say[J]. Journal of Economic Growth,1996,1(2):149-187.
[45] Davide Furceri, Loungani P, Zdzienicka A.The effects of monetary policy shocks on inequality[J]. IMF Working Papers,2017,16(245):1.
[2] Dabla-Norris E, Kochhar K, Suphaphiphat N, et al.Causes and consequences of income inequality: a global perspective[J].IMF Staff Discussion Notes,2015,15(13):46-88.
[3] Gasparini L,Cruces G,Tornarolli L.Recent trends in income inequality in latin america[J].Journal of Lacea Economia,2011,11(2):147-190.
[4] Barro R. Inflation and economic growth[J]. Annals of Economics and Finance,2013,14(1): 121-144.
[5] Romer C,Romer D.Monetary policy and the well-being of the poor[J].Economic Review,Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City,First Quarter,1999,55(2):21-49.
[6] Ales B. Income inequality: does inflation matter? [J].IMF Papers,2001,48(1):139-159.
[7] Feldstein M. The costs and benefits of going from low inflation to price stability[R].NBER Working Papers,1997:No5469.
[8] Koray F.Money and functional distribution of income[J].Journal of Money,Credit and Banking ,2013,21(1):33-48.
[9] Thorbecke W.Disinflationary monetary policy and the distribution of income[R]. Levy Institute Working Paper,1997:No165.
[10] Bernanke B S. The jobless recovery[EB/OL].Remarks at the Global Economic and Investment Outlook Conference, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2003/.
[11] Stuart J F.Income inequality, monetary policy, and the business cycles[R. Middle Tennessee State University:Working Paper, 2005.
[12] Williamson S.Monetary policy and distribution[J].Journal of Monetary Economics, 2009,55(1):1038-1053.
[13] Villarreal A.Explaining the decline in Mexico-U.S. migration: the effect of the great recession[J].Demography,2014,51(6):2203-2228.
[14] George Agitis, Christos Pitelis. Monetary policy and the distribution of income: evidence for the United States and the United Kindom[J]. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 2001(8):617-638.
[15] Ledoit Olivier. The redistributive effects of monetary policy[R]. Department of Economics University of Zurich:ECON- Working Papers, 2011.
[16] Heathcote Jonathan.Fiscal policy with heterogeneous agents and incomplete markets[J]. Review of Economic Studies, 2009,72 (1):161-188.
[17] Diaz-Gimenez Javier, Andrew Glover, Jose-Vctor Rios-Rull.Facts on the distributions of earnings, income, and wealth in the United States:2007 update[J].Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review,2007,34(1):2-31.
[18] Coibion O, Gorodnichenko Y, Kueng L,et al.Innocent bystanders? Monetary policy and inequality in the U.S.[R]. IMF Working Paper,2012.
[19] 赵志君.论中美货币政策差异及其分配效应[J].新疆财经,2012(1):5-11.
[20] 李建勇,汪旭,王枫淇.货币政策对收入不平等的作用效应:一个文献研究[J].财经科学,2014(1):38-45.
[21] 丁攀,李素芳.中国货币政策对城乡居民收入的有效性研究--FAVAR模型的全视角分析[J].经济科学,2014(4):39-49.
[22] 陈利锋.收入分配、经济波动与货币政策--对凯恩斯主义劳动力市场理论的一个反思[J].青海金融,2015(4):42-51.
[23] 周源.货币政策的收入分配效应研究[J].西安电子科技大学学报(社会科学版),2016(5):26-32.
[24] Harding A. Life time vs annual tax-transfer incidence[J]. The Economic Record, 1993, 69(1):245-273.
[25] Hassan F M. Effects of personal income tax on income distribution: Example from Bulgaria[J]. Contemporary Economic Policy,1996(10):11-23.
[26] Lambert P J.The distribution and redistribution of income[M]. Manchester :Manchester University Press,2001.
[27] Clark T, Leicester A. Inequality and two decades of British tax and benefit reforms [J]. Fiscal Studies ,2004,25(2):129-158.
[28] 刘文文,杨娟,冯唐人.货币政策与收入差距--来自中美加德四国的比较研究 [J].宏观经济研究,2016(3):149-159.
[29] 陈金至,尹依依,钱程.汇率制度与收入不平等[J].国际金融研究,2017(8):43-53.
[30] 许明,刘长庚.区域经济发展水平与城乡收入不平等--基于我国29省际面板数据的实证分析[J].经济问题探索,2015(1):89-95.
[31] Kuznets S. Economic growth and income inequality[J].American Economic Review,1955,45(1):1-28.
[32] Adelman I, Morris C T.Economic growth and social equity in developing countries [J].American Political Science Association,1973,70(1):145-168.
[33] Braulke M.A note on Kuznets' U [J]. Review of Economics and Statistics, 1973, 65 (1):135-139.
[34] Borro R J. Inequality and growth in a panel of countries[J]. Journal of Economic Growth, 2000,5(1):5-32.
[35] Nielsen F,Alderson A S.Trends in income inequality in the United States[J]. Springer U S ,2001(1):355-385.
[36] 傅振邦,陈先勇.城市化、产业结构变动与城乡收入差距--以湖北省为例[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2012(6):8-14.
[37] 程莉,周宗社.结构偏差、滞后城市化与城乡收入差距[J].经济经纬,2014(1):20-25.
[38] Doepke M, Schneider M.Aggregate implications of wealth redistribution: the case of inflation[J].Journal of the European Economic Association, 2006,4(3):493-502.
[39] Mincer J.Schooling,experience and earnings[R].Cambridge:National Bureau of Economic Research,1974:83-96.
[40] 李实,魏众,丁赛.中国居民财产分布不均等及其原因的经验分析[J].经济研究, 2005(6):4-15.
[41] 陈彦斌,陈伟,陈军,等.中国通货膨胀对财产不平等的影响[J].经济研究,2013(8):4-15.
[42] Becker G,Chiswick B R. Education and the distribution of earning[J].American Economic Review,1966,56(1):363-365.
[43] Boulier B L. The effects of demoographic variables on income distribution[R]. Research Program in Economic Development, Woodrow Wilson School Princeton University:Discussion Paper,1975,NO61.
[44] Perotii R. Growth,income distribution, and democracy:what the data say[J]. Journal of Economic Growth,1996,1(2):149-187.
[45] Davide Furceri, Loungani P, Zdzienicka A.The effects of monetary policy shocks on inequality[J]. IMF Working Papers,2017,16(245):1.