The impacts of climate change on wheat yield in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China using DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model under different climate scenarios
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摘要
Climate change has been documented as a major threat to current agricultural strategies. Progress in understanding the impact of climate change on crop yield is essential for agricultural climate adaptation, especially for the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain(3 H Plain) of China which is an area known to be vulnerable to global warming. In this study, the impacts of climate change on winter wheat(Triticum aestivum L.) yield between the baseline period(1981–2010) and two Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP8.5 and RCP4.5) were simulated for the short-term(2010–2039), the medium-term(2040–2069) and the long-term(2070–2099) in the 3 H Plain, by considering the relative contributions of changes in temperature, solar radiation and precipitation using the DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model. Results indicated that the maximum and minimum temperatures(TMAX and TMIN), solar radiation(SRAD), and precipitation(PREP) during the winter wheat season increased under these two RCPs. Yield analysis found that wheat yield increased with the increase in SRAD, PREP and CO2 concentration, but decreased with an increase in temperature. Increasing precipitation contributes the most to the total impact, increasing wheat yield by 9.53, 6.62 and 23.73% for the three terms of future climate under RCP4.5 scenario, and 11.74, 16.38 and 27.78% for the three terms of future climate under RCP8.5 scenario. However, as increases in temperature bring higher evapotranspiration, which further aggravated water deficits, the supposed negative effect of increasing thermal resources decreased wheat yield by 1.92, 4.08 and 5.24% for the three terms of future climate under RCP4.5 scenario, and 3.64, 5.87 and 5.81% for the three terms of future climate under RCP8.5 scenario with clearly larger decreases in RCP8.5. Counterintuitively, the impacts in southern sub-regions were positive, but they were all negative in the remaining sub-regions. Our analysis demonstrated that in the 3 H Plain, which is a part of the mid-high latitude region, the effects of increasing thermal resources were counteracted by the aggravated water deficits caused by the increase in temperature.
Climate change has been documented as a major threat to current agricultural strategies. Progress in understanding the impact of climate change on crop yield is essential for agricultural climate adaptation, especially for the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain(3 H Plain) of China which is an area known to be vulnerable to global warming. In this study, the impacts of climate change on winter wheat(Triticum aestivum L.) yield between the baseline period(1981–2010) and two Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP8.5 and RCP4.5) were simulated for the short-term(2010–2039), the medium-term(2040–2069) and the long-term(2070–2099) in the 3 H Plain, by considering the relative contributions of changes in temperature, solar radiation and precipitation using the DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model. Results indicated that the maximum and minimum temperatures(TMAX and TMIN), solar radiation(SRAD), and precipitation(PREP) during the winter wheat season increased under these two RCPs. Yield analysis found that wheat yield increased with the increase in SRAD, PREP and CO2 concentration, but decreased with an increase in temperature. Increasing precipitation contributes the most to the total impact, increasing wheat yield by 9.53, 6.62 and 23.73% for the three terms of future climate under RCP4.5 scenario, and 11.74, 16.38 and 27.78% for the three terms of future climate under RCP8.5 scenario. However, as increases in temperature bring higher evapotranspiration, which further aggravated water deficits, the supposed negative effect of increasing thermal resources decreased wheat yield by 1.92, 4.08 and 5.24% for the three terms of future climate under RCP4.5 scenario, and 3.64, 5.87 and 5.81% for the three terms of future climate under RCP8.5 scenario with clearly larger decreases in RCP8.5. Counterintuitively, the impacts in southern sub-regions were positive, but they were all negative in the remaining sub-regions. Our analysis demonstrated that in the 3 H Plain, which is a part of the mid-high latitude region, the effects of increasing thermal resources were counteracted by the aggravated water deficits caused by the increase in temperature.
Climate change has been documented as a major threat to current agricultural strategies. Progress in understanding the impact of climate change on crop yield is essential for agricultural climate adaptation, especially for the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain(3 H Plain) of China which is an area known to be vulnerable to global warming. In this study, the impacts of climate change on winter wheat(Triticum aestivum L.) yield between the baseline period(1981–2010) and two Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP8.5 and RCP4.5) were simulated for the short-term(2010–2039), the medium-term(2040–2069) and the long-term(2070–2099) in the 3 H Plain, by considering the relative contributions of changes in temperature, solar radiation and precipitation using the DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model. Results indicated that the maximum and minimum temperatures(TMAX and TMIN), solar radiation(SRAD), and precipitation(PREP) during the winter wheat season increased under these two RCPs. Yield analysis found that wheat yield increased with the increase in SRAD, PREP and CO2 concentration, but decreased with an increase in temperature. Increasing precipitation contributes the most to the total impact, increasing wheat yield by 9.53, 6.62 and 23.73% for the three terms of future climate under RCP4.5 scenario, and 11.74, 16.38 and 27.78% for the three terms of future climate under RCP8.5 scenario. However, as increases in temperature bring higher evapotranspiration, which further aggravated water deficits, the supposed negative effect of increasing thermal resources decreased wheat yield by 1.92, 4.08 and 5.24% for the three terms of future climate under RCP4.5 scenario, and 3.64, 5.87 and 5.81% for the three terms of future climate under RCP8.5 scenario with clearly larger decreases in RCP8.5. Counterintuitively, the impacts in southern sub-regions were positive, but they were all negative in the remaining sub-regions. Our analysis demonstrated that in the 3 H Plain, which is a part of the mid-high latitude region, the effects of increasing thermal resources were counteracted by the aggravated water deficits caused by the increase in temperature.
引文
David B L,Christopher B F.2007.Global scale climate-crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming.Environmental Research Letters,2,014002.
Hunt L A,Boote K J.1998.Data for model operation,calibration,and evaluation.In:Tsuji G Y,Hoogenboom G,Thornton PK,eds.,Understanding Options for Agricultural Production.Springer Netherlands,Dordrecht.pp.9-39.
Jones J W,Tsuji G Y,Hoogenboom G,Hunt L A,Thornton P K,Wilkens P W,Imamura D T,Bowen W T,Singh U.1998.Decision support system for agrotechnology transfer:DSSAT v3.In:Tsuji G Y,Hoogenboom G,Thornton P K,eds.,Understanding Options for Agricultural Production.Springer Netherlands,Dordrecht.pp.157-177.
Ju H,van der Velde M,Lin E,Xiong W,Li Y.2013.The impacts of climate change on agricultural production systems in China.Climatic Change,120,313-324.
Keating B A,Carberry P S,Hammer G L,Probert M E,Robertson M J,Holzworth D,Huth N I,Hargreaves J NG,Meinke H,Hochman Z,McLean G,Verburg K,Snow V,Dimes J P,Silburn M,Wang E,Brown S,Bristow KL,Asseng S,Chapman S,McCown R L,Freebairn D M,Smith C J.2003.An overview of APSIM,a model designed for farming systems simulation.European Journal of Agronomy,18,267-288.
Kimball B A.1983.Carbon dioxide and agricultural yield:An assemblage and analysis of 430 prior observations.Agronomy Journal,75,779-788.
Knox J,Hess T,Daccache A,Wheeler T.2012.Climate change impacts on crop productivity in Africa and South Asia.Environmental Research Letters,7,034032.
Li Y,Huang H,Ju H,Lin E,Xiong W,Han X,Wang H,Peng Z,Wang Y,Xu J,Cao Y,Hu W.2015.Assessing vulnerability and adaptive capacity to potential drought for winter-wheat under the RCP 8.5 scenario in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain.Agriculture,Ecosystems&Environment,209,125-131.
Liu S X,Mo X G,Lin Z H,Xu Y Q,Ji J J,Wen G,Richey J,Green T R,Yu Q A,Ma L W.2010.Crop yield responses to climate change in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China.Agricultural Water Management,97,1195-1209.
Liu X,Zhao Y,Shi X,Liu Y,Wang S,Yu D.2017.Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of CENTURY-modeled SOC dynamics in upland soils under different climate-soil-management conditions:A case study in China.Journal of Soils and Sediments,17,85-96.
Lobell D B,Field C B.2007.Global scale climate-crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming.Environmental Research Letters,2,014002.
Lobell D B,Schlenker W,Costa-Roberts J.2011.Climate trends and global crop production since 1980.Science,333,616-620.
Martre P,Wallach D,Asseng S,Ewert F,Jones J W,Rotter R P,Boote K J,Ruane A C,Thorburn P J,Cammarano D,Hatfield J L,Rosenzweig C,Aggarwal P K,Angulo C,Basso B,Bertuzzi P,Biernath C,Brisson N,Challinor AJ,Doltra J,et al.2015.Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth:Many models are better than one.Global Change Biology,21,911-925.
Mei X,Kang S,Yu Q,Huang Y,Zhong X,Gong D,Huo Z,Liu E.2013.pathways to synchronously improving crop productivity and field water use efficiency in the North China Plain.Scientia Agricultura Sinica,46,1149-1157.(in Chinese)
Palosuo T,Kersebaum K C,Angulo C,Hlavinka P,Moriondo M,Olesen J E,Patil R H,Ruget F,Rumbaur C,Takac J,Trnka M,Bindi M,Caldag B,Ewert F,Ferrise R,Mirschel W,Saylan L,Siska B,Rotter R.2011.Simulation of winter wheat yield and its variability in different climates of Europe:A comparison of eight crop growth models.European Journal of Agronomy,35,103-114.
Parry M L,Ruttan V W.1991.Climate change and world agriculture.Environment(Science and Policy for Sustainable Development),33,25-29.
Piao S,Ciais P,Huang Y,Shen Z,Peng S,Li J,Zhou L,Liu H,Ma Y,Ding Y,Friedlingstein P,Liu C,Tan K,Yu Y,Zhang T,Fang J.2010.The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China.Nature,467,43-51.
Ritchie J T,Singh U,Godwin D C,Bowen W T.1998.Cereal growth,development and yield.In:Tsuji G Y,Hoogenboom G,Thornton P K,eds.,Understanding Options for Agricultural Production.Springer Netherlands,Dordrecht.pp.79-98.
Rosenzweig C,Iglesias A.1998.The Use of Crop Models for International Climate Change Impact Assessment.Springer,Netherlands.pp.267-292.
Schlenker W,Lobell D B.2010.Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture.Environmental Research Letters,5,014010.
Schlenker W,Roberts M J.2009.Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to US crop yields under climate change.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,106,15594-15598.
Shi W,Tao F,Zhang Z.2013.A review on statistical models for identifying climate contributions to crop yields.Journal of Geographical Sciences,23,567-576.
Tan J,Cui Y,Luo Y.2016.Global sensitivity analysis of outputs over rice-growth process in ORYZA model.Environmental Modelling&Software,83,36-46.
Tao F,Yokozawa M,Liu J,Zhang Z.2008.Climate-crop yield relationships at provincial scales in China and the impacts of recent climate trends.Climate Research,38,83-94.
Tao F,Zhang Z,Xiao D,Zhang S,R?tter R P,Shi W,Liu Y,Wang M,Liu F,Zhang H.2014.Responses of wheat growth and yield to climate change in different climate zones of China,1981-2009.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,189-190,91-104.
Timsina J,Humphreys E.2006.Performance of CERES-Rice and CERES-Wheat models in rice-wheat systems:A review.Agricultural Systems,90,5-31.
Tubiello F,Schmidhuber J,Howden M,Neofotis P G,Park S,Fernandes E,Thapa D.2008.Agriculture And Rural Development Discussion Paper 42:Climate Change Response Strategies for Agriculture:Challenges and Opportunities for the 21st Century.The World Bank.p.63.
Wang H L,Gan Y T,Wang R Y,Niu J Y,Zhao H,Yang Q G,Li G C.2008.Phenological trends in winter wheat and spring cotton in response to climate changes in northwest China.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,148,1242-1251.
Williams J R,Renard K G,Dyke P T.1983.EPIC:A new method for assessing erosion’s effect on soil productivity.Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,38,381-383.
Wolfram S,David B L.2010.Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture.Environmental Research Letters,5,014010.
Xiao D,Tao F.2014.Contributions of cultivars,management and climate change to winter wheat yield in the North China Plain in the past three decades.European Journal of Agronomy,52(Part B),112-122.
Xiong W,Holman I,Lin E,Conway D,Li Y,Wu W.2012.Untangling relative contributions of recent climate and CO2trends to national cereal production in China.Environmental Research Letters,7,044014.
Xiong W,van der Velde M,Holman I P,Balkovic J,Lin E,SkalskyR,Porter C,Jones J,Khabarov N,Obersteiner M.2014.Can climate-smart agriculture reverse the recent slowing of rice yield growth in China?Agriculture,Ecosystems&Environment,196,125-136.
Yang J,Mei X,Huo Z,Yan C,Ju H,Zhao F,Liu Q.2015.Water consumption in summer maize and winter wheat cropping system based on SEBAL model in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain,China.Journal of Integrative Agriculture,14,2065-2076.
Yao F,Qin P,Zhang J,Lin E,Boken V.2011.Uncertainties in assessing the effect of climate change on agriculture using model simulation and uncertainty processing methods.Chinese Science Bulletin,56,729-737.
Yong B,Ren L,Hong Y,Gourley J J,Chen X,Dong J,Wang W,Shen Y,Hardy J.2013.Spatial-temporal changes of water resources in a typical semiarid basin of north china over the past 50 years and assessment of possible natural and socioeconomic causes.Journal of Hydrometeorology,14,1009-1034.
You L,Rosegrant M W,Wood S,Sun D.2009.Impact of growing season temperature on wheat productivity in China.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,149,1009-1014.
Yu Q,Li L,Luo Q,Eamus D,Xu S,Chen C,Wang E,Liu J,Nielsen D C.2014.Year patterns of climate impact on wheat yields.International Journal of Climatology,34,518-528.
Yuan W,Cai W,Chen Y,Liu S,Dong W,Zhang H,Yu G,Chen Z,He H,Guo W,Liu D,Liu S,Xiang W,Xie Z,Zhao Z,Zhou G.2016.Severe summer heatwave and drought strongly reduced carbon uptake in Southern China.Scientific Reports,6,18813.
Zhang X,Chen S,Liu M,Pei D,Sun H.2005.Improved water use efficiency associated with cultivars and agronomic management in the North China Plain.Agronomy Journal,97,783-790.
Zhang X,Chen S,Sun H,Shao L,Wang Y.2011.Changes in evapotranspiration over irrigated winter wheat and maize in North China Plain over three decades.Agricultural Water Management,98,1097-1104.
Hunt L A,Boote K J.1998.Data for model operation,calibration,and evaluation.In:Tsuji G Y,Hoogenboom G,Thornton PK,eds.,Understanding Options for Agricultural Production.Springer Netherlands,Dordrecht.pp.9-39.
Jones J W,Tsuji G Y,Hoogenboom G,Hunt L A,Thornton P K,Wilkens P W,Imamura D T,Bowen W T,Singh U.1998.Decision support system for agrotechnology transfer:DSSAT v3.In:Tsuji G Y,Hoogenboom G,Thornton P K,eds.,Understanding Options for Agricultural Production.Springer Netherlands,Dordrecht.pp.157-177.
Ju H,van der Velde M,Lin E,Xiong W,Li Y.2013.The impacts of climate change on agricultural production systems in China.Climatic Change,120,313-324.
Keating B A,Carberry P S,Hammer G L,Probert M E,Robertson M J,Holzworth D,Huth N I,Hargreaves J NG,Meinke H,Hochman Z,McLean G,Verburg K,Snow V,Dimes J P,Silburn M,Wang E,Brown S,Bristow KL,Asseng S,Chapman S,McCown R L,Freebairn D M,Smith C J.2003.An overview of APSIM,a model designed for farming systems simulation.European Journal of Agronomy,18,267-288.
Kimball B A.1983.Carbon dioxide and agricultural yield:An assemblage and analysis of 430 prior observations.Agronomy Journal,75,779-788.
Knox J,Hess T,Daccache A,Wheeler T.2012.Climate change impacts on crop productivity in Africa and South Asia.Environmental Research Letters,7,034032.
Li Y,Huang H,Ju H,Lin E,Xiong W,Han X,Wang H,Peng Z,Wang Y,Xu J,Cao Y,Hu W.2015.Assessing vulnerability and adaptive capacity to potential drought for winter-wheat under the RCP 8.5 scenario in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain.Agriculture,Ecosystems&Environment,209,125-131.
Liu S X,Mo X G,Lin Z H,Xu Y Q,Ji J J,Wen G,Richey J,Green T R,Yu Q A,Ma L W.2010.Crop yield responses to climate change in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China.Agricultural Water Management,97,1195-1209.
Liu X,Zhao Y,Shi X,Liu Y,Wang S,Yu D.2017.Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of CENTURY-modeled SOC dynamics in upland soils under different climate-soil-management conditions:A case study in China.Journal of Soils and Sediments,17,85-96.
Lobell D B,Field C B.2007.Global scale climate-crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming.Environmental Research Letters,2,014002.
Lobell D B,Schlenker W,Costa-Roberts J.2011.Climate trends and global crop production since 1980.Science,333,616-620.
Martre P,Wallach D,Asseng S,Ewert F,Jones J W,Rotter R P,Boote K J,Ruane A C,Thorburn P J,Cammarano D,Hatfield J L,Rosenzweig C,Aggarwal P K,Angulo C,Basso B,Bertuzzi P,Biernath C,Brisson N,Challinor AJ,Doltra J,et al.2015.Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth:Many models are better than one.Global Change Biology,21,911-925.
Mei X,Kang S,Yu Q,Huang Y,Zhong X,Gong D,Huo Z,Liu E.2013.pathways to synchronously improving crop productivity and field water use efficiency in the North China Plain.Scientia Agricultura Sinica,46,1149-1157.(in Chinese)
Palosuo T,Kersebaum K C,Angulo C,Hlavinka P,Moriondo M,Olesen J E,Patil R H,Ruget F,Rumbaur C,Takac J,Trnka M,Bindi M,Caldag B,Ewert F,Ferrise R,Mirschel W,Saylan L,Siska B,Rotter R.2011.Simulation of winter wheat yield and its variability in different climates of Europe:A comparison of eight crop growth models.European Journal of Agronomy,35,103-114.
Parry M L,Ruttan V W.1991.Climate change and world agriculture.Environment(Science and Policy for Sustainable Development),33,25-29.
Piao S,Ciais P,Huang Y,Shen Z,Peng S,Li J,Zhou L,Liu H,Ma Y,Ding Y,Friedlingstein P,Liu C,Tan K,Yu Y,Zhang T,Fang J.2010.The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China.Nature,467,43-51.
Ritchie J T,Singh U,Godwin D C,Bowen W T.1998.Cereal growth,development and yield.In:Tsuji G Y,Hoogenboom G,Thornton P K,eds.,Understanding Options for Agricultural Production.Springer Netherlands,Dordrecht.pp.79-98.
Rosenzweig C,Iglesias A.1998.The Use of Crop Models for International Climate Change Impact Assessment.Springer,Netherlands.pp.267-292.
Schlenker W,Lobell D B.2010.Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture.Environmental Research Letters,5,014010.
Schlenker W,Roberts M J.2009.Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to US crop yields under climate change.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,106,15594-15598.
Shi W,Tao F,Zhang Z.2013.A review on statistical models for identifying climate contributions to crop yields.Journal of Geographical Sciences,23,567-576.
Tan J,Cui Y,Luo Y.2016.Global sensitivity analysis of outputs over rice-growth process in ORYZA model.Environmental Modelling&Software,83,36-46.
Tao F,Yokozawa M,Liu J,Zhang Z.2008.Climate-crop yield relationships at provincial scales in China and the impacts of recent climate trends.Climate Research,38,83-94.
Tao F,Zhang Z,Xiao D,Zhang S,R?tter R P,Shi W,Liu Y,Wang M,Liu F,Zhang H.2014.Responses of wheat growth and yield to climate change in different climate zones of China,1981-2009.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,189-190,91-104.
Timsina J,Humphreys E.2006.Performance of CERES-Rice and CERES-Wheat models in rice-wheat systems:A review.Agricultural Systems,90,5-31.
Tubiello F,Schmidhuber J,Howden M,Neofotis P G,Park S,Fernandes E,Thapa D.2008.Agriculture And Rural Development Discussion Paper 42:Climate Change Response Strategies for Agriculture:Challenges and Opportunities for the 21st Century.The World Bank.p.63.
Wang H L,Gan Y T,Wang R Y,Niu J Y,Zhao H,Yang Q G,Li G C.2008.Phenological trends in winter wheat and spring cotton in response to climate changes in northwest China.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,148,1242-1251.
Williams J R,Renard K G,Dyke P T.1983.EPIC:A new method for assessing erosion’s effect on soil productivity.Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,38,381-383.
Wolfram S,David B L.2010.Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture.Environmental Research Letters,5,014010.
Xiao D,Tao F.2014.Contributions of cultivars,management and climate change to winter wheat yield in the North China Plain in the past three decades.European Journal of Agronomy,52(Part B),112-122.
Xiong W,Holman I,Lin E,Conway D,Li Y,Wu W.2012.Untangling relative contributions of recent climate and CO2trends to national cereal production in China.Environmental Research Letters,7,044014.
Xiong W,van der Velde M,Holman I P,Balkovic J,Lin E,SkalskyR,Porter C,Jones J,Khabarov N,Obersteiner M.2014.Can climate-smart agriculture reverse the recent slowing of rice yield growth in China?Agriculture,Ecosystems&Environment,196,125-136.
Yang J,Mei X,Huo Z,Yan C,Ju H,Zhao F,Liu Q.2015.Water consumption in summer maize and winter wheat cropping system based on SEBAL model in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain,China.Journal of Integrative Agriculture,14,2065-2076.
Yao F,Qin P,Zhang J,Lin E,Boken V.2011.Uncertainties in assessing the effect of climate change on agriculture using model simulation and uncertainty processing methods.Chinese Science Bulletin,56,729-737.
Yong B,Ren L,Hong Y,Gourley J J,Chen X,Dong J,Wang W,Shen Y,Hardy J.2013.Spatial-temporal changes of water resources in a typical semiarid basin of north china over the past 50 years and assessment of possible natural and socioeconomic causes.Journal of Hydrometeorology,14,1009-1034.
You L,Rosegrant M W,Wood S,Sun D.2009.Impact of growing season temperature on wheat productivity in China.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,149,1009-1014.
Yu Q,Li L,Luo Q,Eamus D,Xu S,Chen C,Wang E,Liu J,Nielsen D C.2014.Year patterns of climate impact on wheat yields.International Journal of Climatology,34,518-528.
Yuan W,Cai W,Chen Y,Liu S,Dong W,Zhang H,Yu G,Chen Z,He H,Guo W,Liu D,Liu S,Xiang W,Xie Z,Zhao Z,Zhou G.2016.Severe summer heatwave and drought strongly reduced carbon uptake in Southern China.Scientific Reports,6,18813.
Zhang X,Chen S,Liu M,Pei D,Sun H.2005.Improved water use efficiency associated with cultivars and agronomic management in the North China Plain.Agronomy Journal,97,783-790.
Zhang X,Chen S,Sun H,Shao L,Wang Y.2011.Changes in evapotranspiration over irrigated winter wheat and maize in North China Plain over three decades.Agricultural Water Management,98,1097-1104.