乌鲁木齐市建设用地对经济增长的贡献及Logistic曲线极限点估计研究
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摘要
[目的]为提高乌鲁木齐市各生产要素的利用效率,明确经济发展模式,同时也为促进土地资源节约集约利用提供科学依据。[方法]基于C-D生产函数,以2005—2015年乌鲁木齐市统计数据为样本,借助EViews6.0和SPSS20.0软件测算出建设用地对经济增长的贡献率以及Logistic曲线极限点。[结果](1)资本投入要素对经济增长的贡献率(56.72%)最大,建设用地投入要素贡献(32.81%)次之,然后是劳动力投入要素贡献(13.25%),技术进步投入要素贡献(-2.78%)最小,但拥有很大的挖掘空间;(2)建设用地对经济增长的Logistic曲线极限点位于第二、三产业产值为1 522亿元处,对应2011年产值,2005—2011年建设用地对经济增长的贡献呈递增趋势,2011年之后贡献速度呈递减趋势,逐渐趋于平缓。[结论]建设用地对经济增长的驱动作用是有限的,只有通过技术创新才能实现经济发展模式由"依资本型"向"技术驱动型"转变。
This study was to improve the utilization efficiency of each production factor in Urumqi City,define the mode of economic development,and also provide a scientific basis for promoting the intensive utilization of land resources. Based on the C-D production function,the paper calculated the contribution rate of construction land to economic growth and the limit point of Logistic curve by using the statistical data of Urumqi from 2005 to 2015 years as samples and by means of EViews6. 0 and SPSS20. 0 software. The results showed that:( 1) Capital contribution to economic growth rate was 56. 72% which was the largest and the construction land input factor contribution was32. 81%,then the labor input factor contribution was 13. 25%,technical progress contribution of input elements was-2. 78% which was the smallest,but with great potentialities;( 2) The limit point of logistic curve of the construction land for economic growth lied at the output value of the second and third industries of 152 billion 200 million yuan,corresponding to the output value of 2011,The construction land to the economic growth presented increased trend from 2005 to 2011,and after 2011 contribution rate showed a decreasing trend,gradually gentle. The driving role of construction land in economic growth was limited,and only through technological innovation could the mode of economic development change from " Capital type" to " Technology driven type".
This study was to improve the utilization efficiency of each production factor in Urumqi City,define the mode of economic development,and also provide a scientific basis for promoting the intensive utilization of land resources. Based on the C-D production function,the paper calculated the contribution rate of construction land to economic growth and the limit point of Logistic curve by using the statistical data of Urumqi from 2005 to 2015 years as samples and by means of EViews6. 0 and SPSS20. 0 software. The results showed that:( 1) Capital contribution to economic growth rate was 56. 72% which was the largest and the construction land input factor contribution was32. 81%,then the labor input factor contribution was 13. 25%,technical progress contribution of input elements was-2. 78% which was the smallest,but with great potentialities;( 2) The limit point of logistic curve of the construction land for economic growth lied at the output value of the second and third industries of 152 billion 200 million yuan,corresponding to the output value of 2011,The construction land to the economic growth presented increased trend from 2005 to 2011,and after 2011 contribution rate showed a decreasing trend,gradually gentle. The driving role of construction land in economic growth was limited,and only through technological innovation could the mode of economic development change from " Capital type" to " Technology driven type".
引文
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[2]张乐勤,陈素平,许信旺,等.快速城镇化背景下建设用地扩展驱动力研究述评与展望,干旱区地理,2013,36(1):164~175
[3]姜海,曲福田.不同发展阶段建设用地扩张对经济增长的贡献和响应,中国人口·资源与环境,2009,19(1):70~75
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[6]李效顺,曲福田,等.经济发展与城市蔓延的Logistic假说及其验证——基于华东地区典型城市的考察,自然资源学报,2012,27(5):713~722
[7]王长健,张小雷,杜宏茹,等,城市化与生态环境的动态计量分析——以新疆乌鲁木齐市为例.干旱区地理,2014,37(3):609~619
[8]杨子,乌鲁木齐市土地利用变化的生态环境效益研究,乌鲁木齐:新疆农业大学,2015
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[10]崔云,中国经济增长中土地资源的“尾效”分析,经济理论与经济管理,2007(11):32~37
[11]崔党群.Logistic曲线方程的解析与拟合优度测验,数理统计与管理,2005,24(1):112~115
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[13]Sweda T,Koide T.Applicability of g rowth equa tio ns of the grow th of trees in stem radius(I):Application tow hite spruce.J.Jap.For.Sci.1981(61):321~329
[14]刘雄兵,喻燕,建设用地资源“尾效”计量研究,国土资源科技管理,2010,27(6):93~98
[15]贾润松,张四灿.中国省际资本存量与资本回报率,统计研究,2014,31(11):35~42
[16]张军,吴桂英,等.中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952—2000,经济研究,2005(10):35~44
[17]曾祥坤,李贵才,等.基于logistic曲线的快速城市化地区耕地变化人文驱动力建模——以深圳市为例.资源科学,2009,31(4):604~611
[18]姚远、李效顺,等,中国经济增长与耕地资源变化计量分析,农业工程学报,2012,28(14):209~215
[19]张乐勤,陈素平,等.安徽省近15年土地要素对经济贡献及Logistic曲线拐点探析,地理科学,2014,34(1):40~46
[20]张俊峰,张安录.基于要素贡献率的建设用地差别化管理——以武汉城市圈为例,经济地理,2015,35(10):171~178,193
[2]张乐勤,陈素平,许信旺,等.快速城镇化背景下建设用地扩展驱动力研究述评与展望,干旱区地理,2013,36(1):164~175
[3]姜海,曲福田.不同发展阶段建设用地扩张对经济增长的贡献和响应,中国人口·资源与环境,2009,19(1):70~75
[4]孙平军,丁四保.中国城镇建设用地投入效益研究,干旱区地理,2013,36(2):337~345
[5]韩春鲜,马耀峰,等.新疆区域经济发展空间差异与演变机制分析,干旱区地理,2010,33(3):450~455
[6]李效顺,曲福田,等.经济发展与城市蔓延的Logistic假说及其验证——基于华东地区典型城市的考察,自然资源学报,2012,27(5):713~722
[7]王长健,张小雷,杜宏茹,等,城市化与生态环境的动态计量分析——以新疆乌鲁木齐市为例.干旱区地理,2014,37(3):609~619
[8]杨子,乌鲁木齐市土地利用变化的生态环境效益研究,乌鲁木齐:新疆农业大学,2015
[9]Romer,D,Advanced Macroeconomics,Second Edition,Shanghai Uniwersity of Finance&Economics Press,The Mc Graw-Hill Companies,Inc,2001,37~41
[10]崔云,中国经济增长中土地资源的“尾效”分析,经济理论与经济管理,2007(11):32~37
[11]崔党群.Logistic曲线方程的解析与拟合优度测验,数理统计与管理,2005,24(1):112~115
[12]殷祚云.Logistic曲线拟合方法研究,数理统计与管理,2002,21(1):41~46
[13]Sweda T,Koide T.Applicability of g rowth equa tio ns of the grow th of trees in stem radius(I):Application tow hite spruce.J.Jap.For.Sci.1981(61):321~329
[14]刘雄兵,喻燕,建设用地资源“尾效”计量研究,国土资源科技管理,2010,27(6):93~98
[15]贾润松,张四灿.中国省际资本存量与资本回报率,统计研究,2014,31(11):35~42
[16]张军,吴桂英,等.中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952—2000,经济研究,2005(10):35~44
[17]曾祥坤,李贵才,等.基于logistic曲线的快速城市化地区耕地变化人文驱动力建模——以深圳市为例.资源科学,2009,31(4):604~611
[18]姚远、李效顺,等,中国经济增长与耕地资源变化计量分析,农业工程学报,2012,28(14):209~215
[19]张乐勤,陈素平,等.安徽省近15年土地要素对经济贡献及Logistic曲线拐点探析,地理科学,2014,34(1):40~46
[20]张俊峰,张安录.基于要素贡献率的建设用地差别化管理——以武汉城市圈为例,经济地理,2015,35(10):171~178,193