水资源承载力评价的Logistic集对分析模型及其应用
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摘要
在水资源危机日益加重的大背景下,采用基于线性隶属函数的水资源承载力评价模型处理复杂的实际问题时,往往对指标值变化的敏感度不高,迫切需要对现有研究模型进行改进。所以研究引进Logistic理论,提出一个用于水资源承载力评价的新模型——Logistic集对分析模型,并将该模型应用于吉林省2007—2016年的水资源承载力评价。评价结果显示:吉林省水资源承载力等级在较低和中等之间波动;与线性集对分析模型相比,Logistic集对分析模型能更加合理地考虑指标值的分布对水资源载荷的影响,同时评价结果又能在一定程度上反映指标值的分布,说明该模型是可靠和有效的。
Under the background of the increasingly serious water resources crisis,the assessment model of water resources carrying capacity based on the linear membership function is often not sensitive to the change of index value in the face of complex problems in reality. So it is urgent to improve the existing research models. This study introduced the Logistic theory and put forward a new model for the assessment of water resources carrying capacity—Logistic set pair analysis model.This model was applied to the assessment of water resources carrying capacity in Jilin Province from 2007 to 2016. The results show: the grade of water resources carrying capacity in Jilin Province fluctuates between low and medium; compared with the linear set pair analysis model,the Logistic set pair analysis model can more reasonably consider the impact of the distribution of index values on the water resources load,while the evaluation results can reflect the distribution of index values to a certain extent,is a reliable and effective model.
Under the background of the increasingly serious water resources crisis,the assessment model of water resources carrying capacity based on the linear membership function is often not sensitive to the change of index value in the face of complex problems in reality. So it is urgent to improve the existing research models. This study introduced the Logistic theory and put forward a new model for the assessment of water resources carrying capacity—Logistic set pair analysis model.This model was applied to the assessment of water resources carrying capacity in Jilin Province from 2007 to 2016. The results show: the grade of water resources carrying capacity in Jilin Province fluctuates between low and medium; compared with the linear set pair analysis model,the Logistic set pair analysis model can more reasonably consider the impact of the distribution of index values on the water resources load,while the evaluation results can reflect the distribution of index values to a certain extent,is a reliable and effective model.
引文
[1]张利平,夏军,胡志芳.中国水资源状况与水资源安全问题分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2019,18(2):116-120.
[2] YANG X H,SUN B Y,ZHANG J,et al. Hierarchy evaluation of water resources vulnerability under climate change in Beijing,China[J]. Natural hazards,2016,84(S1):63-67.
[3]宋帆,杨晓华.基于改进突变级数法的长江下游水资源承载力评价[J].南水北调与水利科技,2018,16(3):24-32.
[4]张国庆.辽宁省水资源承载力预警模型研究[J].水利规划与设计,2018(8):75-78,130.
[5]金菊良,董涛,郦建强,等.不同承载标准下水资源承载力评价[J].水科学进展,2018,29(1):31-39.
[6] YANG X H,ZHANG X J,HU X X. Nonlinear optimization set pair analysis model(NOSPAM)for assessing water resource renewability[J]. Nonlinear processes in geophysics,2011,18(5):599-607.
[7]胡晓雪,杨晓华,郦建强,等.河流健康系统评价的集对分析模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2008,28(5):164-170.
[8]王睿,周立华,陈勇,等.基于模糊综合评判的杭锦旗水资源承载力评价[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(2):320-324.
[9] LIU S F,CHEN J H. Water resources carrying capacity based on the theory of ANN[J]. Resources science,2007,29(1):99-105.
[10]杨晓华,杨志峰,沈珍瑶,等.区域水资源开发利用程度评价的RBF网络模型[J].环境科学,2004,25(增刊1):31-34.
[11]郦建强,陆桂华,杨晓华,等.区域水资源承载能力综合评价的GPPIM[J].河海大学学报,2004,32(1):1-4.
[12]郦建强,陆桂华,杨晓华.流域水资源承载能力综合评价的多目标决策模型[J].水文,2004,24(4):1-4.
[13]陈铭,李红燕,王铁宁.模糊综合评价中非线性隶属函数的确定[J].数学的实践与认识,2006,36(9):124-128.
[14]莫惠栋. Logistic方程及其应用[J].江苏农学院学报,1983,4(2):53-57.
[15]崔党群. Logistic曲线方程的解析与拟合优度测验[J].2005,24(1):112-115.
[16]王文圣,金菊良,丁晶,等.水资源系统评价新方法:集对评价法[J].中国科学E辑:技术科学,2009,39(9):1529-1534.
[17]金菊良,沈时兴,潘争伟,等.水资源集对分析理论与应用研究进展[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2017,38(4):54-66.
[18]李磊,贾磊,赵晓雪,等.层次分析法-熵值定权法在城市水环境承载力评价中的应用[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,24(4):456-460.
[19]莫崇勋,林怡彤,阮俞理,等.基于FSPA-SPEP模型的南宁市水资源承载能力及其影响因子分析[J].节水灌溉,2017(12):63-67.
[2] YANG X H,SUN B Y,ZHANG J,et al. Hierarchy evaluation of water resources vulnerability under climate change in Beijing,China[J]. Natural hazards,2016,84(S1):63-67.
[3]宋帆,杨晓华.基于改进突变级数法的长江下游水资源承载力评价[J].南水北调与水利科技,2018,16(3):24-32.
[4]张国庆.辽宁省水资源承载力预警模型研究[J].水利规划与设计,2018(8):75-78,130.
[5]金菊良,董涛,郦建强,等.不同承载标准下水资源承载力评价[J].水科学进展,2018,29(1):31-39.
[6] YANG X H,ZHANG X J,HU X X. Nonlinear optimization set pair analysis model(NOSPAM)for assessing water resource renewability[J]. Nonlinear processes in geophysics,2011,18(5):599-607.
[7]胡晓雪,杨晓华,郦建强,等.河流健康系统评价的集对分析模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2008,28(5):164-170.
[8]王睿,周立华,陈勇,等.基于模糊综合评判的杭锦旗水资源承载力评价[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(2):320-324.
[9] LIU S F,CHEN J H. Water resources carrying capacity based on the theory of ANN[J]. Resources science,2007,29(1):99-105.
[10]杨晓华,杨志峰,沈珍瑶,等.区域水资源开发利用程度评价的RBF网络模型[J].环境科学,2004,25(增刊1):31-34.
[11]郦建强,陆桂华,杨晓华,等.区域水资源承载能力综合评价的GPPIM[J].河海大学学报,2004,32(1):1-4.
[12]郦建强,陆桂华,杨晓华.流域水资源承载能力综合评价的多目标决策模型[J].水文,2004,24(4):1-4.
[13]陈铭,李红燕,王铁宁.模糊综合评价中非线性隶属函数的确定[J].数学的实践与认识,2006,36(9):124-128.
[14]莫惠栋. Logistic方程及其应用[J].江苏农学院学报,1983,4(2):53-57.
[15]崔党群. Logistic曲线方程的解析与拟合优度测验[J].2005,24(1):112-115.
[16]王文圣,金菊良,丁晶,等.水资源系统评价新方法:集对评价法[J].中国科学E辑:技术科学,2009,39(9):1529-1534.
[17]金菊良,沈时兴,潘争伟,等.水资源集对分析理论与应用研究进展[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2017,38(4):54-66.
[18]李磊,贾磊,赵晓雪,等.层次分析法-熵值定权法在城市水环境承载力评价中的应用[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,24(4):456-460.
[19]莫崇勋,林怡彤,阮俞理,等.基于FSPA-SPEP模型的南宁市水资源承载能力及其影响因子分析[J].节水灌溉,2017(12):63-67.