利用早期余震预测的Omi-R-J方法对2017年四川九寨沟M_S7.0地震的应用研究
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摘要
在地震序列的早期阶段获得科学可靠的余震预测结果,始终是地震预测研究的前沿课题.针对新近发展的Omi-R-J方法的适用性问题,以及相比于传统的Reseanberg-Jones(R-J)模型在地震序列参数拟合、余震预测效能上的差异等问题,本文以2017年四川九寨沟M_S7.0地震序列为例,利用多时间窗的连续滑动拟合、预测和检验,以及通过构建重采样随机地震序列目录的系统检验等方式,开展了应用研究和比较研究.结果表明:相比于R-J模型,Omi-R-J方法可在余震记录较不完整的地震序列早期阶段获得稳定、可靠的序列参数,p值、c值和b值的标准差相比于R-J模型参数明显减小.N-test方法检验结果表明,在R-J模型等传统方法无法获得预测结果的地震序列早期阶段,Omi-R-J方法预测结果可以较高的比例通过N-test检验,在后续时段的预测效果也明显优于R-J模型.利用随机地震序列目录的测试结果表明,余震记录完整性下降对Omi-R-J方法预测结果的影响相对较小,在全部时段的完整性下降的影响高于在部分时段的完整性下降.上述结果对进一步地将Omi-R-J方法应用在震后早期余震预测中具有一定科学借鉴意义.
It is a focused issue to forecast early aftershocks.This paper discusses the applicability of the recently developed Omi-R-J method,and compares it with the traditional Reseanberg-Jones(RJ)model in parameters fitting and the effect of aftershock forecasting.Taking the Jiuzhaigou M_S7.0 earthquake sequence as an example,we use the sliding-type parameters fitting,forecasting,and statistical tests in multiple time windows,and systematic statistical tests of randomly resampledaftershock sequence to conduct the comparison.The results show that stable and reliable parameters of aftershock sequence can be obtained by using the Omi-R-J method in the early stage with significant missing events.The standard deviations of the p-value,c-value,and b-value of the Omi-R-J method are significantly reduced compared with the R-J model.The N-test results show that we can obtain a satisfied forecast result by using the Omi-R-J method in the early stage of the aftershock sequence for which the traditional methods such as the R-J model cannot be performed,and the forecasting effect is also better than the R-J model in the subsequent time period.The results of a systematic test by using the randomly resampled aftershock sequence show that the incomplete record of the aftershock sequence has a relatively small impact on the Omi-R-J method.Among them,the decrease in completeness during the whole period has a greater impact on the forecasting result than that in the partial period.These results have certain significance for further application of the OmiR-J method to the forecast of early aftershocks.
It is a focused issue to forecast early aftershocks.This paper discusses the applicability of the recently developed Omi-R-J method,and compares it with the traditional Reseanberg-Jones(RJ)model in parameters fitting and the effect of aftershock forecasting.Taking the Jiuzhaigou M_S7.0 earthquake sequence as an example,we use the sliding-type parameters fitting,forecasting,and statistical tests in multiple time windows,and systematic statistical tests of randomly resampledaftershock sequence to conduct the comparison.The results show that stable and reliable parameters of aftershock sequence can be obtained by using the Omi-R-J method in the early stage with significant missing events.The standard deviations of the p-value,c-value,and b-value of the Omi-R-J method are significantly reduced compared with the R-J model.The N-test results show that we can obtain a satisfied forecast result by using the Omi-R-J method in the early stage of the aftershock sequence for which the traditional methods such as the R-J model cannot be performed,and the forecasting effect is also better than the R-J model in the subsequent time period.The results of a systematic test by using the randomly resampled aftershock sequence show that the incomplete record of the aftershock sequence has a relatively small impact on the Omi-R-J method.Among them,the decrease in completeness during the whole period has a greater impact on the forecasting result than that in the partial period.These results have certain significance for further application of the OmiR-J method to the forecast of early aftershocks.
引文
Aki K.1965.Maximum likelihood estimate of bin the formula logN=a-bMand its confidence limits.Bull.Earthquake Re.Inst.,Tokyo Unive.,43:237-239.
Bi J M,Jiang C S.2017.Evaluation on the forecasting effectiveness of short-term aftershock occurrence rate and forecasting strategies at the junction of Shanxi,Hebei and Inner Mongolia.Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),32(1):8-17,doi:10.6038/pg20170102.
Console R,Murru M,Falcone G.2010.Probability gains of an epidemic-type aftershock sequence model in retrospective forecasting of M≥5earthquakes in Italy.Journal of Seismology,14(1):9-26.
Gerstenberger M C,Jones L M,Wiemer S.2007.Short-term aftershock probabilities:Case studies in California.Seismological Research Letters,78(1):66-77.
Gerstenberger M C,Wiemer S,Jones L M,et al.2005.Real-time forecasts of tomorrow′s earthquakes in California.Nature,435(7040):328-331.
Gutenberg R,Richter C F.1944.Frequency of earthquakes in California.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,34(1):185-188.
Helmstetter A,Kagan Y Y,Jackson D D.2006.Comparison of short-term and time-independent earthquake forecast models for southern California.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,96(1):90-106.
Han P,Hattori K,Zhuang J,et al.2017.Evaluation of ULFseismo-magnetic phenomena in Kakioka,Japan by using Molchan′s error diagram.Geophysical Journal International,208(1):482-490.
Huang Y L,Zhou S Y,Zhuang J C.2016.Numerical tests on catalog-based methods to estimate magnitude of completeness.Chinese Journal of Geophysics(in Chinese),59(4):1350-1358.
Iwata T.2008.Low detection capability of global earthquakes after the occurrence of large earthquakes:Investigation of the Harvard CMT catalogue.Geophysical Journal International,174(3):849-856.
Jiang C S,Wu Z L,Yin F L,et al.2015.Stability of earlyestimation sequence parameters for continuous forecast of the aftershock rate:A case study of the 2014Ludian,Yunnan MS6.5earthquake.Chinese Journal of Geophysics(in Chinese),58(11):4163-4173,doi:10.6038/cjg20151123.
Jiang C S,Zhuang J C,Wu Z L,et al.2017.Application and comparison of two short-term probabilistic forecasting models for the 2017Jiuzhaigou,Sichuan,MS7.0earthquake.Chinese Journal of Geophysics,60(10):4132-4144,doi:10.6038/cjg20171038.
Kagan Y Y,Jackson D D.1995.New seismic gap hypothesis:Five years after.Journal of Geophysical Research,100(B3):3943-3959.
Ogata Y,Katsura K.1993.Analysis of temporal and spatial heterogeneity of magnitude frequency distribution inferred from earthquake catalogues.Geophysical Journal International,113(3):727-738.
Ogata Y.1983.Estimation ofthe parameters in the modified Omori formula for aftershock frequencies by the maximum likelihood procedure.Journal of Physics of the Earth,31(2):115-124.
Ogata Y.1988.Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual analysis for point processes.Journal of the American Statistical Association,83(401):9-27.
Ogata Y.1989.Statistical model for standard seismicity and detection of anomalies by residual analysis.Tectonophysics,169(1-3):159-174.
Ogata Y.2001.Increased probability of large earthquakes near aftershock regions with relative quiescence.Journal of Geophysical Research,106(B5):8729-8744.
Omi T,Ogata Y,Hirata Y,et al.2013.Forecasting large aftershocks within one day after the main shock.Scientific Reports,3:2218,doi:10.1038/srep02218.
Omori F.1894.On aftershocks of earthquakes.Journal of the College of Science,Imperial University of Tokyo,7:11-200.
Peng Z,Vidale J,Houston H,2006.Anomalous early aftershock decay rate of the 2004 Mw6.0Parkfield,California,earthquake.Geophysical Research Letters,33:L17307,doi:10.1029/2006GL026744.
Peng Z,Vidale J,Ishii M,et al.2007.Seismicity rate immediately before and after main shock rupture from high-frequency waveforms in Japan.Journal of Geophysical Research,112:B03306,doi:10.1029/2006JB004386.
Reasenberg P A,Jones L M.1989.Earthquake hazard after a mainshock in California.Science,243(4895):1173-1176.
Rhoades D A,Gerstenberger M C.2009.Mixture models for improved short-term earthquake forecasting.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,99(2A):636-646.
Schorlemmer D,Gerstenberger M C,Wiemer S,et al.2007.Earthquake
likelihood model testing.Seismological Research Letters,78(1):17-29.
Utsu T.1961.A statistical study on the occurrence of aftershocks.Geophysical Magazine,30:521-605.
Utsu T.1965.A method for determining the value of bin a formula logN=a-bM showing the magnitude-frequency relation for earthquakes.Geophysical Bulletin of the Hokkaido University,13:99-103.
Zechar J D.2010.Evaluating earthquake predictions and earthquake forecasts:aguide for students and new researchers.∥Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis.doi:10.5078/corssa-77337879.Available at http:∥www.corssa.org.
Zhuang J C.2011.Next-day earthquake forecasts for the Japan region generated by the ETAS model.Earth,Planets and Space,63:207-216.
Zhuang J,Ogata Y,Wang T.2017.Data completeness of the Kumamoto earthquake sequence in the JMA catalog and its influence on the estimation of the ETAS parameters.Earth,Planets and Space,69:36,doi:10.1186/s40623-017-0614-6.
毕金孟,蒋长胜.2017.晋冀蒙交界地区余震短期发生率的预测效能评估和预测策略研究.地球物理学进展,32(1):8-17.
黄亦磊,周仕勇,庄建仓.2016.基于地震目录估计完备震级方法的数值实验.地球物理学报,59(4):1350-1358.
蒋长胜,吴忠良,尹凤玲等.2015.余震的序列参数稳定性和余震短期发生率预测效能的连续评估---以2014年云南鲁甸6.5级地震为例.地球物理学报,58(11):4163-4173,doi:10.6038/cjg20151123.
蒋长胜,庄建仓,吴忠良等.2017.两种短期概率预测模型在2017年九寨沟7.0级地震中的应用和比较研究.地球物理学报,60(10):4132-4144,doi:10.6038/cjg20171001.
1)全国地震编目系统,http:∥10.5.202.22/bianmu/index.jsp,查阅时间2017年8月14日.
Bi J M,Jiang C S.2017.Evaluation on the forecasting effectiveness of short-term aftershock occurrence rate and forecasting strategies at the junction of Shanxi,Hebei and Inner Mongolia.Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),32(1):8-17,doi:10.6038/pg20170102.
Console R,Murru M,Falcone G.2010.Probability gains of an epidemic-type aftershock sequence model in retrospective forecasting of M≥5earthquakes in Italy.Journal of Seismology,14(1):9-26.
Gerstenberger M C,Jones L M,Wiemer S.2007.Short-term aftershock probabilities:Case studies in California.Seismological Research Letters,78(1):66-77.
Gerstenberger M C,Wiemer S,Jones L M,et al.2005.Real-time forecasts of tomorrow′s earthquakes in California.Nature,435(7040):328-331.
Gutenberg R,Richter C F.1944.Frequency of earthquakes in California.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,34(1):185-188.
Helmstetter A,Kagan Y Y,Jackson D D.2006.Comparison of short-term and time-independent earthquake forecast models for southern California.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,96(1):90-106.
Han P,Hattori K,Zhuang J,et al.2017.Evaluation of ULFseismo-magnetic phenomena in Kakioka,Japan by using Molchan′s error diagram.Geophysical Journal International,208(1):482-490.
Huang Y L,Zhou S Y,Zhuang J C.2016.Numerical tests on catalog-based methods to estimate magnitude of completeness.Chinese Journal of Geophysics(in Chinese),59(4):1350-1358.
Iwata T.2008.Low detection capability of global earthquakes after the occurrence of large earthquakes:Investigation of the Harvard CMT catalogue.Geophysical Journal International,174(3):849-856.
Jiang C S,Wu Z L,Yin F L,et al.2015.Stability of earlyestimation sequence parameters for continuous forecast of the aftershock rate:A case study of the 2014Ludian,Yunnan MS6.5earthquake.Chinese Journal of Geophysics(in Chinese),58(11):4163-4173,doi:10.6038/cjg20151123.
Jiang C S,Zhuang J C,Wu Z L,et al.2017.Application and comparison of two short-term probabilistic forecasting models for the 2017Jiuzhaigou,Sichuan,MS7.0earthquake.Chinese Journal of Geophysics,60(10):4132-4144,doi:10.6038/cjg20171038.
Kagan Y Y,Jackson D D.1995.New seismic gap hypothesis:Five years after.Journal of Geophysical Research,100(B3):3943-3959.
Ogata Y,Katsura K.1993.Analysis of temporal and spatial heterogeneity of magnitude frequency distribution inferred from earthquake catalogues.Geophysical Journal International,113(3):727-738.
Ogata Y.1983.Estimation ofthe parameters in the modified Omori formula for aftershock frequencies by the maximum likelihood procedure.Journal of Physics of the Earth,31(2):115-124.
Ogata Y.1988.Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual analysis for point processes.Journal of the American Statistical Association,83(401):9-27.
Ogata Y.1989.Statistical model for standard seismicity and detection of anomalies by residual analysis.Tectonophysics,169(1-3):159-174.
Ogata Y.2001.Increased probability of large earthquakes near aftershock regions with relative quiescence.Journal of Geophysical Research,106(B5):8729-8744.
Omi T,Ogata Y,Hirata Y,et al.2013.Forecasting large aftershocks within one day after the main shock.Scientific Reports,3:2218,doi:10.1038/srep02218.
Omori F.1894.On aftershocks of earthquakes.Journal of the College of Science,Imperial University of Tokyo,7:11-200.
Peng Z,Vidale J,Houston H,2006.Anomalous early aftershock decay rate of the 2004 Mw6.0Parkfield,California,earthquake.Geophysical Research Letters,33:L17307,doi:10.1029/2006GL026744.
Peng Z,Vidale J,Ishii M,et al.2007.Seismicity rate immediately before and after main shock rupture from high-frequency waveforms in Japan.Journal of Geophysical Research,112:B03306,doi:10.1029/2006JB004386.
Reasenberg P A,Jones L M.1989.Earthquake hazard after a mainshock in California.Science,243(4895):1173-1176.
Rhoades D A,Gerstenberger M C.2009.Mixture models for improved short-term earthquake forecasting.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,99(2A):636-646.
Schorlemmer D,Gerstenberger M C,Wiemer S,et al.2007.Earthquake
likelihood model testing.Seismological Research Letters,78(1):17-29.
Utsu T.1961.A statistical study on the occurrence of aftershocks.Geophysical Magazine,30:521-605.
Utsu T.1965.A method for determining the value of bin a formula logN=a-bM showing the magnitude-frequency relation for earthquakes.Geophysical Bulletin of the Hokkaido University,13:99-103.
Zechar J D.2010.Evaluating earthquake predictions and earthquake forecasts:aguide for students and new researchers.∥Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis.doi:10.5078/corssa-77337879.Available at http:∥www.corssa.org.
Zhuang J C.2011.Next-day earthquake forecasts for the Japan region generated by the ETAS model.Earth,Planets and Space,63:207-216.
Zhuang J,Ogata Y,Wang T.2017.Data completeness of the Kumamoto earthquake sequence in the JMA catalog and its influence on the estimation of the ETAS parameters.Earth,Planets and Space,69:36,doi:10.1186/s40623-017-0614-6.
毕金孟,蒋长胜.2017.晋冀蒙交界地区余震短期发生率的预测效能评估和预测策略研究.地球物理学进展,32(1):8-17.
黄亦磊,周仕勇,庄建仓.2016.基于地震目录估计完备震级方法的数值实验.地球物理学报,59(4):1350-1358.
蒋长胜,吴忠良,尹凤玲等.2015.余震的序列参数稳定性和余震短期发生率预测效能的连续评估---以2014年云南鲁甸6.5级地震为例.地球物理学报,58(11):4163-4173,doi:10.6038/cjg20151123.
蒋长胜,庄建仓,吴忠良等.2017.两种短期概率预测模型在2017年九寨沟7.0级地震中的应用和比较研究.地球物理学报,60(10):4132-4144,doi:10.6038/cjg20171001.
1)全国地震编目系统,http:∥10.5.202.22/bianmu/index.jsp,查阅时间2017年8月14日.
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