作物生产潜力变化的区域差异——以陕西省为例
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摘要
作物生产潜力变化具有明显的区域差异性,亟需针对不同地理单元实施有效应对措施和调控策略。选择陕西省三大地理单元(陕北高原、关中盆地和秦巴山区)为研究对象,运用全球生态区模型(GAEZ)分析了陕西省不同地理单元作物生产潜力变化趋势,探讨了不同作物生产潜力变化的区域差异,辨识出影响不同作物生产潜力变化的主要因素,结果显示:(1) 1980—2015年间,陕西省玉米生产潜力总量增加了150.55×10~4 t,小麦生产潜力总量则下降了402.69×10~4 t。(2)关中盆地的玉米和小麦生产潜力皆最大,陕北高原次之,秦巴山区的玉米和小麦生产潜力皆最小;陕北高原和秦巴山区的玉米生产潜力皆表现出先增加后减小再增加的变化趋势,关中盆地的玉米生产潜力则先减小后增加再减小;关中盆地和秦巴山区的小麦生产潜力都呈下降趋势,陕北高原的小麦生产潜力则有所提高。(3)土地利用变化呈现减产效应,这一效应在关中盆地尤为显著,其次为陕北高原;气候变化导致玉米生产潜力增加,使小麦生产潜力下降;气候变化对不同地理单元的影响也不相同,在陕北高原表现为增产效应,在关中盆地和秦巴山区则为减产效应。(4)在陕北高原,气候变化的增产效应是玉米和小麦生产潜力提高的主要原因,气候变化对玉米生产潜力的影响大于对小麦的影响,耕地向草地、林地和建设用地的转化是降低作物生产潜力最主要的土地利用变化因素;在关中盆地,作物生产潜力的变化主要是受气候变化的影响,小麦受气候变化的影响较玉米为大,以建设用地占用耕地为特征的土地利用变化对玉米生产潜力的影响大于对小麦的影响;在秦巴山区,土地利用变化是玉米生产潜力变化的主要原因,而小麦生产潜力的变化主要受气候变化影响。
There were obvious regional differences in crop production potential change caused by the changes in climate and land use.Therefore,it was in urgent need to implement effective solutions and control strategies for different agricultural districts and agricultural production modes.Shaanxi Province,China which was divided into three geographical units was chosen as the research object to explore the trends and influence factors of crop production potential change among different geographical units by using GAEZ.The data required for the GAEZ model mainly included climate,land use,soil,topography and statistics data.The food crops planted in Shaanxi Province were mainly maize and wheat.Through spatial analysis and statistics,the production potential changes of the two crops in different geographical units were calculated.The results showed that the total maize production potential in Shaanxi Province was increased by 150.55×10~4 t,while the total wheat production potential was decreased by 402.69×10~4 t between 1980 and 2015.The maize and wheat production potential in Guanzhong Basin were the greatest,followed by Shaanbei Plateau.The maize production potential in Shaanbei Plateau and Qingling-Daba Mountains showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing and then increasing again; however,it was decreased first and then increased and then decreased again in Guanzhong Basin.The wheat production potentials in Guanzhong Basin and Qinling-Daba Mountains were both decreased,while it was increased by 141.58 kg·hm~(-2) in Shaanbei Plateau.The land use change had a subtractive effect on crop production potential,which was particularly significant in Guanzhong Basin.Climate change led to an increase in maize production potential and a decrease in wheat production potential.The impact of climate change on crop production potential presented a yield-increasing effect in Shaanbei Plateau and a yield-decreasing effect in Guanzhong Basin and Qinling-Daba Mountains.In Shaanbei Plateau,the yield-increasing effect of climate change was the main reason for the improvement of maize and wheat production potential; the impact of climate change on maize production potential was greater than that of wheat; the transformation of farmland to grassland,woodland and construction land was the most important land use change reason for decreasing crop production potential.In Guanzhong Basin,the change of crop production potential was mainly affected by climate change; the effect of climate change on wheat production potential was greater than that of maize; however,the effect of land use change characterized by construction land occupying farmland on maize production potential was greater than that on wheat.In Qinling-Daba Mountains,land use change was the main reason for the change of maize production potential; the change of wheat production potential was mainly affected by climate change.It can be concluded that the production potential of maize and wheat in Shaanbei Plateau were both increased,while the crop production capacity was generally declined in other geographical units in Shaanxi Province.Moreover,the increase in crop production potential in the Shaanbei Plateau was mainly caused by climate change.The decline in the production potential of crops in other geographical units was affected by both climate change and land use change.By analyzing the impact of different factors on crop production potential in different geographical units,the main factors limiting the change of crop production potential in different geographical units can be identified.This had important theoretical and practical significance for the rational use of climate resources and giving full play to the potential of crop production in order to increase food production capacity.
There were obvious regional differences in crop production potential change caused by the changes in climate and land use.Therefore,it was in urgent need to implement effective solutions and control strategies for different agricultural districts and agricultural production modes.Shaanxi Province,China which was divided into three geographical units was chosen as the research object to explore the trends and influence factors of crop production potential change among different geographical units by using GAEZ.The data required for the GAEZ model mainly included climate,land use,soil,topography and statistics data.The food crops planted in Shaanxi Province were mainly maize and wheat.Through spatial analysis and statistics,the production potential changes of the two crops in different geographical units were calculated.The results showed that the total maize production potential in Shaanxi Province was increased by 150.55×10~4 t,while the total wheat production potential was decreased by 402.69×10~4 t between 1980 and 2015.The maize and wheat production potential in Guanzhong Basin were the greatest,followed by Shaanbei Plateau.The maize production potential in Shaanbei Plateau and Qingling-Daba Mountains showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing and then increasing again; however,it was decreased first and then increased and then decreased again in Guanzhong Basin.The wheat production potentials in Guanzhong Basin and Qinling-Daba Mountains were both decreased,while it was increased by 141.58 kg·hm~(-2) in Shaanbei Plateau.The land use change had a subtractive effect on crop production potential,which was particularly significant in Guanzhong Basin.Climate change led to an increase in maize production potential and a decrease in wheat production potential.The impact of climate change on crop production potential presented a yield-increasing effect in Shaanbei Plateau and a yield-decreasing effect in Guanzhong Basin and Qinling-Daba Mountains.In Shaanbei Plateau,the yield-increasing effect of climate change was the main reason for the improvement of maize and wheat production potential; the impact of climate change on maize production potential was greater than that of wheat; the transformation of farmland to grassland,woodland and construction land was the most important land use change reason for decreasing crop production potential.In Guanzhong Basin,the change of crop production potential was mainly affected by climate change; the effect of climate change on wheat production potential was greater than that of maize; however,the effect of land use change characterized by construction land occupying farmland on maize production potential was greater than that on wheat.In Qinling-Daba Mountains,land use change was the main reason for the change of maize production potential; the change of wheat production potential was mainly affected by climate change.It can be concluded that the production potential of maize and wheat in Shaanbei Plateau were both increased,while the crop production capacity was generally declined in other geographical units in Shaanxi Province.Moreover,the increase in crop production potential in the Shaanbei Plateau was mainly caused by climate change.The decline in the production potential of crops in other geographical units was affected by both climate change and land use change.By analyzing the impact of different factors on crop production potential in different geographical units,the main factors limiting the change of crop production potential in different geographical units can be identified.This had important theoretical and practical significance for the rational use of climate resources and giving full play to the potential of crop production in order to increase food production capacity.
引文
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[4] ANWAR M R,LIU D L,FARQUHARSON R,et al.Climate change impacts on phenology and yields of five broadacre crops at four climatologically distinct locations in Australia[J].Agricultural Systems,2015,132:133-144.
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[7] CIAIS P,REICHSTEIN M,VIOVY N,et al.Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003[J].Nature,2005,437(7058):529.
[8] GAY C,ESTRADA F,CONDE C,et al.Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture:A case of study of coffee production in Veracruz,Mexico[J].Climatic Change,2006,79(3):259-288.
[9] 赵俊芳,郭建平,张艳红,等.气候变化对农业影响研究综述[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(2):200-205.[ZHAO Junfang,GUO Jianping,ZHANG Yanhong,et al.Advances in research of impacts of climate change on agriculture[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2010,31(2):200-205.]
[10] SCHMIDHUBER J,TUBIELLO F N.Global food security under climate change[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2007,104(50):19703-19708.
[11] PIAO S,CIAIS P,HUANG Y,et al.The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China[J].Nature,2010,467(7311):43-51.
[12] HOWDEN S M,SOUSSANA J F,TUBIELLO F N,et al.Adapting agriculture to climate change[J].The Quarterly Review of Biology,2011,86(3):19691-19696.
[13] TAO F,YOKOZAWA M,LIU J,et al.Climate-crop yield relationships at provincial scales in China and the impacts of recent climate trends[J].Climate Research,2008,38(1):83-94.
[14] 周义,覃志豪,包刚.气候变化对农业的影响及应对[J].中国农学通报,2011,27(32):299-303.[ZHOU Yi,QIN Zhihao,BAO Gang.Impacts of climate change on agriculture and its responses[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2011,27(32):299-303.]
[15] 熊伟,林而达,蒋金荷,等.中国粮食生产的综合影响因素分析[J].地理学报,2010,65(4):397-406.[XIONG Wei,LIN Erda,JIANG Jinhe,et al.An integrated analysis of impact factors in determining China’s future grain production[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2010,65(4):397-406.]
[16] LOBELL D B,ASNER G P.Climate and management contributions to recent trends in US agricultural yields[J].Science,2003,300(5625):1505.
[17] 钟新科,刘洛,徐新良,等.近30年中国玉米气候生产潜力时空变化特征.农业工程学报,2012,28(15):94-101.[ZHONG Xinke,LIU Luo,XU Xinliang,et al.Characteristics of spatial-temporal variation of maize climate productivity during last 30 years in China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2012,28(15):94-101.]
[18] MISHRA A,SINGH R,RAGHUWANSHI N S,et al.Spatial variability of climate change impacts on yield of rice and wheat in the Indian Ganga Basin[J].Science of the Total Environment,2013,468:132-138.
[19] 蔺涛,谢云,刘刚,等.黑龙江省气候变化对粮食生产的影响[J].自然资源学报,2008,23(2):307-318.[LIN Tao,XIE Yun,LIU Gang,et al.Impact of climate change on crop yields in Heilongjiang Province[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2008,23(2):307-318.]
[20] 袁彬,郭建平,冶明珠,等.气候变化下东北春玉米品种熟型分布格局及其气候生产潜力[J].科学通报,2012,57(14):1252-1262.[YUAN Bin,GUO Jianping,YE Mingzhu,et al.Variety distribution pattern and climatic potential productivity of spring maize in northeast China under climate change[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2012,57(14):1252-1262.]
[21] 杨春艳,沈渭寿,李海东.1985—2010年西藏粮食产量对气候和耕地变化的响应[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(17):261-269.[YANG Chunyan,SHEN Weitao,LI Haidong.Response of grain yield in Tibet to climate and cultivated land change during 1985—2010[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2015,31(17):261-269.]
[22] 吕硕,杨晓光,赵锦,等.气候变化和品种更替对东北地区春玉米产量潜力的影响[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(18):179-190.[LYU Shuo,YANG Xiaoguang,ZHAO Jin,et al.Effects of climate change and variety alternative on potential yield of spring maize in northeast China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2013,29(18):179-190.]
[23] FISCHER G,SUN L.Model based analysis of future land-use development in China[J].Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment,2001,85(1):163-176.
[24] FISCHER G,TEIXEIRA E,HIZSNYIK E T,et al.Land use dynamics and sugarcane production.Sugarcane ethanol:Contribution to climate change mitigation and the environment[R].Wageningen:Wageningen Academic,2008.
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