提税顺价政策对中国烟草产业的影响

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• 英文论文题名：Impact of tax-price policy on tobacco industry in China
• 论文作者：吕飞 ; 桑运良 ; 起亚宁 ; 白远良
• 英文论文作者：LV Fei ; SANG Yunliang ; QI Yaning ; BAI Yuan Liang ; China Tobacco He Nan Industrial Corporation Ltd ; State Tobacco Monopoly Administration ; China Tobacco Sichuan Industrial Corporation Ltd
• 年：2016
• 作者机构：河南中烟工业有限责任公司;国家烟草专卖局经济信息中心;四川中烟工业有限责任公司;
• 论文关键词：税收 ; 价格 ; 卷烟消费 ; 结构调整 ; 品牌
• 英文论文关键词：Taxation ; Price ; Cigarette Consumption ; Price Ascension ; Brands
• 会议召开时间：2016-12-01
• 会议录名称：中国烟草学会2016年度优秀论文汇编——烟草经济与管理主题
• 语种：中文
• 分类号：F426.8;F812.42;F274
• 学会代码：ZGYG
• 学会名称：中国烟草学会
• 页数：10
• 文件大小：1248k
• 原文格式：D

摘要

2015年5月,我国再次通过提高卷烟税收和价格推进烟草控制工作。本文通过建立计量经济模型,分析了本次提税顺价政策对中国卷烟销量、效益、结构调整、烟叶生产、重点品牌竞争态势和吸烟率的影响。认为提税顺价将使得卷烟销售均价加速上移,卷烟销量将有所下降,商业税利增速高于工业增速,重点品牌分化明显,烟叶生产继续承压。建议:1)适当加大四、五类卷烟市场供应;2)抓住机遇提高烟草产业在烟叶种植、卷烟产能、市场营销、资本运营、库存物资、科技研发等方面的管控与治理能力;3)强化重点品牌市场监控,降低政策冲击。
In May 2015, tobacco taxes and prices of cigarette were raised to control tobacco consumption in China, and the econometric models were established to analyze the impact of the cigarette tax and price change on cigarette consumption,profit and tax, cigarette price ascension, tobacco growing,competition between cigarette brands and smoking prevalence in China. The quantitative results are of great significance to assess the influence of tax-price policy, formulate national tobacco industry policy changes, learn the competition of cigarette brands, and maintain stable, healthy development of the tobacco industry.

引文

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