基于STR模型的旅游收入与经济增长的关系研究——以安徽省为例
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- 英文论文题名：The dynamic relationship between tourism revenues and economic growth in Anhui province based on STR model
- 论文作者：张鑫 ; 潘钱莉 ; 杨艳艳 ; 耿烽
- 英文论文作者：Zhang Xin ; Pan Qian-li ; Yang Yan-yan ; Geng Feng ; School of Management ; Hefei University of Technology ; Key Laboratory of Process Optimization and Intelligent Decision-making ; Ministry of Education
- 年：2016
- 作者机构：合肥工业大学管理学院;过程优化与智能决策教育部重点实验室;
- 论文关键词：经济增长 ; 旅游收入 ; 平滑转换回归
- 英文论文关键词：Economic Growth ; Tourism Revenues ; Smooth Transition Regression Model
- 会议召开时间：2016-09-28
- 会议录名称：第十一届（2016）中国管理学年会论文集
- 语种：中文
- 分类号：F592.7;F127
- 学会代码：ZGUH
- 会议名称：第十一届（2016）中国管理学年会
- 会议地点：中国黑龙江哈尔滨
- 主办单位：中国管理现代化研究会、复旦管理学奖励基金会
- 学会名称：中国管理现代化研究会
- 页数：7
- 文件大小：687k
- 原文格式：D
- 会议级别：全国
摘要
本文基于平滑转换回归模型(STR),应用1996到2015年的数据论证了安徽省旅游收入与经济增长的动态关系。研究表明,旅游收入与经济增长的关系是线性与非线性并存。当旅游收入增长率在[6.42636%,15.83099%]区间内时,旅游收入与经济增长呈线性关系,此时旅游收入每变动1%,将引起经济增长变动0.04692%,当旅游收入增长率在[6.42636%,15.83099%]区间外时,旅游收入与经济增长呈非线性关系,旅游收入每变动1%,将引起经济增长变动0.05018%,也说明了不管旅游收入水平在高速增长阶段还是低速增长阶段,对经济增长都产生正向效应。同时模型稳健性检验结果也说明了所估计的非线性模型具有良好的动态特征。
Based on Smooth Transition Regression Model, this paper indicates the relationship between tourism revenues and economic growth by the data during 1996 to 2015 of Anhui province.The resualts show that relationship between tourism revenues and economic growth is the coexistence of linear and nonlinear,When tourism revenue growth in [6.42636%, 15.83099%],the relationship of tourism revenues and economic growth is linear, then every 1% change in tourism revenues, economic growth will change in 0.04692%, When tourism revenue growth in [6.42636%, 15.83099%] outside, the relationship of tourism revenues and economic growth is nonlinear, tourism revenue each 1% change will lead to changes in economic growth with 0.05018%, And no matter the level of tourism revenues in the high growth phase or low growth phase,Tourism revenues have a positive effect to economic growth. At the same time the model robustness test results also shows the estimated nonlinear model has good dynamic characteristics.
Based on Smooth Transition Regression Model, this paper indicates the relationship between tourism revenues and economic growth by the data during 1996 to 2015 of Anhui province.The resualts show that relationship between tourism revenues and economic growth is the coexistence of linear and nonlinear,When tourism revenue growth in [6.42636%, 15.83099%],the relationship of tourism revenues and economic growth is linear, then every 1% change in tourism revenues, economic growth will change in 0.04692%, When tourism revenue growth in [6.42636%, 15.83099%] outside, the relationship of tourism revenues and economic growth is nonlinear, tourism revenue each 1% change will lead to changes in economic growth with 0.05018%, And no matter the level of tourism revenues in the high growth phase or low growth phase,Tourism revenues have a positive effect to economic growth. At the same time the model robustness test results also shows the estimated nonlinear model has good dynamic characteristics.
引文
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[2]Shan J,Wilson K.Causality between trade and tourism:empirical evidence from China[J].Applied Economics,2001,(30):1055-1065.
[3]Balaguer J,Cantavella J.M.Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor:the spanish Case[J].Applied Economics,2002,(34):877-884.
[4]Gunduz L,Hatemi J A.Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for turkey?[J].Applied Economics Letters,2005,(12):499-504.
[5]CHI-OK OH.The contribution of tourism development to economic growth in the korean economy[J].Tourism Management,2005,(26):39-44.
[6]杨勇.旅游业与我国经济增长关系的实证分析[J].旅游科学,2006,20(2):40-46.
[7]柳思维,吴忠才.中国旅游业与经济增长关系的实证研究[J].系统工程,2007,25(9):60-64.
[8]赵磊,全华.中国国内旅游消费与经济增长关系的实证分析[J].经济问题,2011,(4):32-38.
[9]柏丽,林士伟.吉林省旅游业与经济增长关系的实证研究[J].吉林化工学院学报,2014,31(10):7-10.
[10]郝秀琴.旅游业与经济增长、基础设施的灰色关联分析——以河南省为例[J].发展研究,2014,(8):60-62.
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[12]尹长丰,韦传慧.安徽省旅游增产与经济增长关系实证研究[J].合肥学院学报,2012,29(6):88-92.
[13]王香玉,张辉.安徽省入境旅游与经济增长的相关性实证研究[J].河南科学,2013,(11):2083-2088.