基于聚类分析的主震最大余震序列的统计特征
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- 英文论文题名：Statistical properties of main shock-the largest aftershock sequences based on cluster analysis
- 论文作者：郑庆涛 ; 赵亚敏 ; 张永庆
- 英文论文作者：Zheng Qingtao ; Zhao Yamin ; Zhang Yongqing ; Institute of Crustal Dynamics ; China Earthquake Administration
- 年：2016
- 作者机构：中国地震局地壳应力研究所;
- 论文关键词：主震 ; 最大余震 ; 震级 ; 震中距 ; 聚类分析
- 英文论文关键词：main shock ; the largest aftershock ; magnitude ; epicentral distance ; cluster analysis
- 会议召开时间：2016-10-27
- 会议录名称：第九届全国防震减灾工程学术研讨会论文集
- 语种：中文
- 分类号：P315
- 学会代码：OGTY
- 会议名称：第九届全国防震减灾工程学术研讨会
- 会议地点：中国安徽合肥
- 主办单位：中国土木工程学会、中国工程院土木、水利与建筑工程学部、中国土木工程学会防震减灾工程技术推广委员会、合肥工业大学、安徽省住房和城乡建设厅
- 学会名称：中国土木工程学会
- 页数：10
- 文件大小：457k
- 原文格式：O
- 会议级别：全国
摘要
依据1966年3月—2016年2月相对完备的中国大陆地区主震震级M≥6.0浅源地震序列资料,对最大余震震级、时间及震中距进行聚类分析。研究结果表明:(1)经过聚类分析后地震序列组内关系明显增强,由完全随机、离散的序列点,逐渐形成多个序列簇集;(2)最大余震震级与主震震级相关,当主震震级M≥7.0时,最大余震震级将显著增加;(3)主震发生后绝大多数最大余震将于短时间内发生,当最大余震发生在6~16天、17~30天内时具有较好的三次曲线拟合关系;(4)88.2%的最大余震发生在距离主震0~35km,随着主震震级的增加,最大余震的分布范围也将扩大。本文研究成果对于进一步探究主震强余震地震序列统计特性,减少主震强余震对建筑结构、边坡、地基等工程的地震影响具有重要意义。
According to the shallow earthquake sequences with the magnitude of main shock greater or equal to 6.0 from March 1966 to February 2016 in mainland China,cluster analysis of their largest aftershocks was done between magnitude,epicentral distance and timespan.The results showed that:(1)after the clustering analysis of earthquake sequences,the relationships within the clustering groups were significantly enhanced by the completely random,discrete sequence points,and gradually form a plurality of sequences of clusters;(2) the magnitude of the largest aftershock associated with the main shock,when the magnitude of main shock was larger than M7.0,the magnitude of largest aftershock would significantly increase;(3)the vast majority of the largest aftershock would occur shortly after the main shock occurred,and when the maximum aftershocks occurred in 6 to 16 days and 17 to 30 days,there would be a good relationship cubic curve fit between T_(a1) and M;(4)88.2%of the largest aftershocks occurred within 0~35km from the main shock,and when the magnitude of main shock increased,the distribution of the largest aftershocks would be also expanded significantly.The research of this article would be useful to the further study of the statistical properties of main shock and strong aftershock sequences,and had some significance to reduce the impact of main shock-aftershock earthquake sequences on the structural engineering,slope,foundations and other issues of importance.
According to the shallow earthquake sequences with the magnitude of main shock greater or equal to 6.0 from March 1966 to February 2016 in mainland China,cluster analysis of their largest aftershocks was done between magnitude,epicentral distance and timespan.The results showed that:(1)after the clustering analysis of earthquake sequences,the relationships within the clustering groups were significantly enhanced by the completely random,discrete sequence points,and gradually form a plurality of sequences of clusters;(2) the magnitude of the largest aftershock associated with the main shock,when the magnitude of main shock was larger than M7.0,the magnitude of largest aftershock would significantly increase;(3)the vast majority of the largest aftershock would occur shortly after the main shock occurred,and when the maximum aftershocks occurred in 6 to 16 days and 17 to 30 days,there would be a good relationship cubic curve fit between T_(a1) and M;(4)88.2%of the largest aftershocks occurred within 0~35km from the main shock,and when the magnitude of main shock increased,the distribution of the largest aftershocks would be also expanded significantly.The research of this article would be useful to the further study of the statistical properties of main shock and strong aftershock sequences,and had some significance to reduce the impact of main shock-aftershock earthquake sequences on the structural engineering,slope,foundations and other issues of importance.
引文
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[17]王骏,王士同,邓赵红.聚类分析研究中的若干问题[J].控制与决策,2012,27(3):321-328.(Wang Jun,Wang Shitong,Deng Zhaohong.Survey on challenges in clustering analysis research[J].Kongzhi Yu Juece/control and Decision,2012,27(3)-.321-328.(in Chinese)).
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[2]丁然,聂建国,陶慕轩.用于钢筋混凝土连梁地震反应分析的考虑非线性剪切的纤维梁单元Ⅰ:原理与开发[J].土木工程学报,2016,49(3):31-42.(Ding Ran,Nie Jianguo,Tao Muxuan.A fiber beam-column element considering nonlinear shear effects for seismic response analysis of reinforced concrete coupling beams I:theory and implementation[J],China Civil Engineering Journal,2016,49(3):31-42(in Chinese)).
[3]张令心,刘琛,刘洁平.砖砌体房屋三水准抗震能力判别方法[J].土木工程学报,2015(12):34-40.(Zhang Lingxin,Liu Chen,Liu Jieping.Three level seismic capacity identification method of brick buildings[J].China Civil Engineering Journal,2015,(12):34-40(in Chinese)).
[4]刘航,韩明杰,兰春光,等.预应力加固两层足尺砖砌体房屋模型抗震性能试验研究[J].土木工程学报,2016,49(3):43-55.(Liu Hang,Han Mingjie,Lan Chunguang,et,al.Pseudo-dynamic test and quasi-static test of full-scale model of a two-story brick building retrofitted with prestressed tendons,China Civil Engineering Journal,2016,49(3):43-55(in Chinese)).
[5]刁桂苓,于利民,李钦祖.震源机制解的系统聚类分析——以海城地震序列为例[J].中国地震,1992,8(3):86-92.(Diao Guiling,Yu Limin,Li Qinzu.Hierarchical clustering analysis of focal mechanism solutions,taking the haicheng earthquake sequence as an example[J].Earthquake Research in China,1992,8(3):86-92.(in Chinese)).
[6]王伟涛,王宝善.基于聚类分析的多尺度相似地震快速识别方法及其在汶川地震东北端余震序列分析中的应用[J].地球物理学报,2012,55(6):1952-1962.(Wang Weitao,Wang Baoshan.Quick identification of multilevel similar earthquakes using hierarchical clustering method and its application to Wenchuan northeast aftershock sequence[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2012,55(6):1952-1962.(in Chinese)).
[7]王伟涛,王宝善.汶川地震余震序列中重复地震的聚类识别[C]//中国地球物理学会第二十六届年会暨中国地震学会第十三次学术大会,2010:60-64.(Wang Weitao,Wang Baoshan.Clustering Recognition of the repeat sequences in Wenchuan Earthquake[C]//The 26th Annual Meeting of Chinese Geophysical Society,(the 14th Academic Conference of SSC),2010:60-64.(in Chinese)).
[8]王绍晋,龙晓帆.永胜地震序列震源机制解聚类分析[C]//1994年中国地球物理学会第十届学术年会论文集,1994:144-150.
[9]程佳,杨文,刘杰,等.2014年2月12日新疆于田MS7.3地震序列及其构造背景研究[J].地震学报,2014,36(3):350-361.(Cheng Jia,Yang Wen,Liu Jie.et al.Earthquake sequence of the Yutian MS7.3 earthquake on February 12,2014 and its tectonic background[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2014,36(3):350-361.(in Chinese)).
[10]喻畑,崔建文,李小军,等.川滇地区中小震地震动衰减特征分析[J].中国地震,2014,30(3):409--418.(Yu Tian,Cui Jianwen,Li Xiaojun,et al.Analysis of ground motion attenuation characterization for moderate earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan region[J].Earthquake Research in China,2014,30(3):409-418.(in Chinese)).
[11]Keilis-Borok V I,Knopoff L,Rotvain I M.Bursts of aftershocks,long-term precursors of strong earthquakesCJ].Nature,1980,283(283):259-263.
[12]任雪梅,谭俊林,马禾青等.中国大陆及边邻地区6级以上地震序列的最大余震统计特征[J].中国地震,2013,29(4):480-488.(Ren Xuemei,Tan Junlin,Ma Heqing,et al.Statistic features of maximum aftershock of earthquake sequences with Ms≥6.0 in Chinese mainland and its border region.Earthquake Research in China.,2013,29(4):480-488.(in Chinese)).
[13]吴波,欧进萍.主震与余震的震级统计关系及其地震动模型参数[J].地震工程与工程振动,1993,13(3):28-35.(Wu Bo,Ou Jinping.Statistical relationship between magnitudes of mainshock and aftershock and parameters of earthquake ground motion.Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,1993,13(3):28-35.(in Chinese)).
[14]Chouhan R K S.Aftershock sequence of Alaskan earthquake of 28~(th),March 1964[J].pure and applied geophysics,1966,64(1):43-48.
[15]Henry C,Das S.Aftershock zones of large shallow earthquakes:fault dimensions,aftershock area expansion and scaling relations[J].Geophysical Journal International,2001,147(147):272-293.
[16]周挚,徐平,山秀明,等.邢台地震启示录——中国弛震科技发展战略走向分析之一[J].国际地震动态,2007,(3):7-11.
[17]王骏,王士同,邓赵红.聚类分析研究中的若干问题[J].控制与决策,2012,27(3):321-328.(Wang Jun,Wang Shitong,Deng Zhaohong.Survey on challenges in clustering analysis research[J].Kongzhi Yu Juece/control and Decision,2012,27(3)-.321-328.(in Chinese)).
[18]陈胜可.SPSS统计分析从入门到精通[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2010:300-316.
[19]张建辉.K-means聚类算法研究及应用[D].武汉:武汉理工大学,2007.(Zhang Jianhui.Research and application of K-means clustering algorithm[D].Wuhan:Wuhan University of Technology,2007.(in Chinese)).