基于大数据分析与认知技术的空气质量预报预警平台
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- 英文论文题名：Air Quality Forecasting Platform Based on Big Data Analytics & Cognitive Technology
- 论文作者：李云婷 ; 严京海 ; 孙峰 ; 张大伟 ; 夏曦 ; 芮晓光 ; 白鑫鑫 ; 尹文君
- 英文论文作者：Li YunTing ; Yan JingHai ; Sun Feng ; Zhang DaWei ; Xia Xi ; Rui XiaoGuang ; Bai XinXin ; Yin WenJun ; Beijing Municipal Environmental Monitoring Center ; Beijing Key Lab of Atmospheric Particle Matter Monitoring ; IBM Research-China
- 年：2016
- 作者机构：北京市环境保护监测中心大气颗粒物监测技术北京市重点实验室;IBM中国研究院;
- 论文关键词：空气质量预报预警 ; 大数据分析 ; 认知技术 ; 案例分析 ; 污染成因分析 ; 决策支持
- 英文论文关键词：Air quality forecasting and early warning ; big data analytics ; cognitive technology ; case analysis ; pollution cause analysis ; decision support
- 会议召开时间：2016-11-24
- 会议录名称：2016全国环境信息技术与应用交流大会暨中国环境科学学会环境信息化分会年会论文集
- 语种：中文
- 分类号：X51
- 学会代码：ZHKX
- 会议名称：2016全国环境信息技术与应用交流大会暨中国环境科学学会环境信息化分会年会
- 会议地点：中国北京
- 主办单位：中国环境科学学会环境信息化分会、《中国环境管理》杂志
- 学会名称：中国环境科学学会环境信息化分会
- 页数：8
- 文件大小：922k
- 原文格式：O
- 会议级别：全国
摘要
为深入认识区域大气污染现象规律,完善并提高城市空气质量预报预警能力,提高大气污染治理决策支持能力,开展城市污染成因分析与空气质量预报预警研究是十分必要的。本文针对环境大数据时代下的城市空气质量预报,提出了一种基于大数据分析与认知技术的专业先进的大气环境业务应用系统体系。该体系基于底层统一的数据资源中心,融合各类不同类型的空气质量监测、不同预报系统的产品数据以及基础辅助数据,建立数据汇交、共享、质控管理机制,通过上层预报预警、综合分析、案例分析、应急决策支持等四大子系统,从多模式集合预报结合专家调优支撑高性能预报会商应用,从大数据融合时空关联分析深度挖掘大气复合污染特征与污染成因,从多维度历史污染过程和天气形势全自动化认知分析支撑重污染过程研判;从业务化仿真情景方案与污染溯源助力专业应急决策。最后,通过在北京市环境保护监测中心的系统实践证明体系的高性能、稳定性和实用性。
It is necessary to carry out analysis and research on urban and regional air pollution causes and air quality forecasting & early warning,in order to better understand the regional air pollution,to improve the urban air quality forecasting and early warning ability,to advance the air pollution control decision support capabilities.In this paper,aimed at the urban air quality forecast in the era of environmental big data,a new atmospheric environment service application system based on the big data analytics and cognitive technology is presented.The system based on the underlying data resource center,integrates all kinds of air quality monitoring data,product data from different forecasting system and basic auxiliary data,establishes the unified me chanism for data exchanging,data sharing,and data quality management.Through the upper four application subsystem—forecasting and warning,comprehensive analysis,case analysis,emergency decision support,the system supports expert forecast consultation application with high performance from multi-mode ensemble forecasting combined with expert tuning;deeply mines complex air pollution characteristics and causes from spatial correlation analysis on fusion of big data;supports judgments of heavy pollution from automatic cognitive analysis on the multi-dimensional historical pollution process and meteorological trend;assists professional emergency decision making from daily operational simulation on scenarios and pollution source apportion.Finally,the high performance,stability and practicability of the system are proved by system implementation in Beijing MEMC.
It is necessary to carry out analysis and research on urban and regional air pollution causes and air quality forecasting & early warning,in order to better understand the regional air pollution,to improve the urban air quality forecasting and early warning ability,to advance the air pollution control decision support capabilities.In this paper,aimed at the urban air quality forecast in the era of environmental big data,a new atmospheric environment service application system based on the big data analytics and cognitive technology is presented.The system based on the underlying data resource center,integrates all kinds of air quality monitoring data,product data from different forecasting system and basic auxiliary data,establishes the unified me chanism for data exchanging,data sharing,and data quality management.Through the upper four application subsystem—forecasting and warning,comprehensive analysis,case analysis,emergency decision support,the system supports expert forecast consultation application with high performance from multi-mode ensemble forecasting combined with expert tuning;deeply mines complex air pollution characteristics and causes from spatial correlation analysis on fusion of big data;supports judgments of heavy pollution from automatic cognitive analysis on the multi-dimensional historical pollution process and meteorological trend;assists professional emergency decision making from daily operational simulation on scenarios and pollution source apportion.Finally,the high performance,stability and practicability of the system are proved by system implementation in Beijing MEMC.
引文
[1]解淑艳,刘冰,李健军.全国环境空气质量数值预报预警系统建立探析[J].环境监控与预警,2013,5(4):1-3.
[2]任万辉,苏枞枞,赵宏德.城市环境空气污染预报研究进展[J].环境保护科学,2010,36(3):9-11.
[3]Byun D W,Ching J K&Science algorithms of the EPA Models-3 community multi-scale air quality(CMAQ)modeling system[R].EPA/600/R-99/030,Office of Research and Development,US Environmental Protection Agency,1999.
[4]Dennis R L,ByunDW,Novak J H,et al.The next generation of integrated air quality modeling;EPA's Models-3[J].Atmospheric Environment,1996,30(12):1925-1938.
[5]ENVIRON;2000,User's Guide,Comprehensive Air QualityModel with Extensions(CAMx),Version 3.00,ENVIRON International Corporatioa
[6]Scheffe R D,Morris RE.A review of the development and application of the urban airshed model[J].Atmospheric Environment,1993,27B:23-39.
[7]王自发,谢付莹,王喜全,等.嵌套网格空气质量预报模式系统的发展与应用[J].大气科学,2006,30(5):778-790.
[8]Mallet V,Quelo D,Sportisse B,et al.Technical Note:The air quality model system Polyphemus[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2007,7(20):5479-5487.
[9]孝恩,韩志伟,张美根,等.城市空气污染数值预报模式系统[J].1997,1-15.
[10]刘娟.长三角区域环境空气质量预测预警体系建设的思考[J].中国环境监测,2012,28(4):135-140.
[11]詹志明,尹文君.环保大数据及其在环境污染防治管理创新中的应用.环境保护,2016,44(6):44-48.
[12]IBM绿色地平线主页.http://www.research,ibm.com/labs/china/greenhorizoa html.
(1)2013年6月14日,国务院总理李克强主持召开国务院常务会议,部署大气污染防治十条措施。
[2]任万辉,苏枞枞,赵宏德.城市环境空气污染预报研究进展[J].环境保护科学,2010,36(3):9-11.
[3]Byun D W,Ching J K&Science algorithms of the EPA Models-3 community multi-scale air quality(CMAQ)modeling system[R].EPA/600/R-99/030,Office of Research and Development,US Environmental Protection Agency,1999.
[4]Dennis R L,ByunDW,Novak J H,et al.The next generation of integrated air quality modeling;EPA's Models-3[J].Atmospheric Environment,1996,30(12):1925-1938.
[5]ENVIRON;2000,User's Guide,Comprehensive Air QualityModel with Extensions(CAMx),Version 3.00,ENVIRON International Corporatioa
[6]Scheffe R D,Morris RE.A review of the development and application of the urban airshed model[J].Atmospheric Environment,1993,27B:23-39.
[7]王自发,谢付莹,王喜全,等.嵌套网格空气质量预报模式系统的发展与应用[J].大气科学,2006,30(5):778-790.
[8]Mallet V,Quelo D,Sportisse B,et al.Technical Note:The air quality model system Polyphemus[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2007,7(20):5479-5487.
[9]孝恩,韩志伟,张美根,等.城市空气污染数值预报模式系统[J].1997,1-15.
[10]刘娟.长三角区域环境空气质量预测预警体系建设的思考[J].中国环境监测,2012,28(4):135-140.
[11]詹志明,尹文君.环保大数据及其在环境污染防治管理创新中的应用.环境保护,2016,44(6):44-48.
[12]IBM绿色地平线主页.http://www.research,ibm.com/labs/china/greenhorizoa html.
(1)2013年6月14日,国务院总理李克强主持召开国务院常务会议,部署大气污染防治十条措施。
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