产业转移路径对枢纽城市物流需求增长的长期影响——基于空间经济学的模拟与检验
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- 英文论文题名：Industry-transferring Paths and the Logistics Long-term Development of Transit-hub City:at the Spatial Economy's Data Simulation and Empirical Research
- 论文作者：阳明明
- 英文论文作者：YANG Ming-ming ; Guangdong University of Finance & Economics
- 年：2016
- 作者机构：广东财经大学;
- 论文关键词：产业转移 ; 路径 ; 枢纽城市 ; 城际物流
- 英文论文关键词：industry transferring ; paths ; transport hub city ; inter-city freight
- 会议召开时间：2016-11-12
- 会议录名称：第十八届中国管理科学学术年会论文集
- 英文会议录名称：Proceedings of the 18th Chinese Annual Conference on Management Science
- 语种：中文
- 分类号：F259.27
- 学会代码：ZHYJ
- 会议名称：第十八届中国管理科学学术年会
- 会议地点：中国陕西西安
- 主办单位：中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会、西安交通大学、中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院、《中国管理科学》编辑部
- 学会名称：中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
- 页数：9
- 文件大小：946k
- 原文格式：O
- 会议级别：全国
摘要
构建一个存在两个交通枢纽城市的城际物流模型,提出以相对人口规模系数来衡量城市间的产业转移规模,并由此导出流经枢纽城市的城际物流量方程,用以预测随着产业由中心城市向外围城市转移的进程中,产业转移路径对流经枢纽城市物流增长的长期影响,从理论上总结了三种不同产业转移路径下,流经枢纽城市的城际物流量的长期增长趋势。结合最近十年京津冀、长三角和珠三角三大城市群内的产业转移路径和物流发展数据,以北上广三个重要枢纽城市为例,对理论模型进行了实践检验。文章主要结论包括:(1)产业转移路径对交通枢纽城市的物流增长有长期影响,且城市人口规模越大,城际物流增长越稳定;(2)产业转移的路径不同,流经枢纽城市的城际物流需求增长趋势也各不相同;(3)因产业转移路径不同,北京市的交通枢纽地位将面临衰退,上海市的枢纽地位稳定,而广州市的枢纽地位还将继续增强。
In this article,a inter-city freight model made up by two closed regions which are connected through tow hub-cities is constructed.Based on Spatial Economy's evolution approaches,how the industry transferring paths would affect the increasing trend of the hub-city's inter-city's throughput is simulated.The transit freight increasing trend of china's three biggest hub cities at the last 10 years is also analyzed.It is concludes that,the industry transferring paths would definitely affect the long term increasing trend of inter-city's freight of the hub cities,while it also depends on the hub cities' population and the process of the industry transferring;when the industries are transferred from one hub city to another,the inter-city's freight throughput of the hub city would increase first then decrease,and again,increase and decrease just like a wave in the long run;when the industries are transferred out of the area of the hub city to the under-industrialized hinterlands,the throughput would increase in the long run,yet when the industries are transferred to it self's hinterland areas,both of the hub cities' throughput will go to recession as the industries transferring.Finally,because of the different paths of industries transferring,as one of the biggest transit hub cities,Beijing's hub position is recessing in the long-run,Shanghai's just slowing down,while Guangzhou's position as a hub is prospering.
In this article,a inter-city freight model made up by two closed regions which are connected through tow hub-cities is constructed.Based on Spatial Economy's evolution approaches,how the industry transferring paths would affect the increasing trend of the hub-city's inter-city's throughput is simulated.The transit freight increasing trend of china's three biggest hub cities at the last 10 years is also analyzed.It is concludes that,the industry transferring paths would definitely affect the long term increasing trend of inter-city's freight of the hub cities,while it also depends on the hub cities' population and the process of the industry transferring;when the industries are transferred from one hub city to another,the inter-city's freight throughput of the hub city would increase first then decrease,and again,increase and decrease just like a wave in the long run;when the industries are transferred out of the area of the hub city to the under-industrialized hinterlands,the throughput would increase in the long run,yet when the industries are transferred to it self's hinterland areas,both of the hub cities' throughput will go to recession as the industries transferring.Finally,because of the different paths of industries transferring,as one of the biggest transit hub cities,Beijing's hub position is recessing in the long-run,Shanghai's just slowing down,while Guangzhou's position as a hub is prospering.
引文
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[3]毛广雄,曹蕾.基于流空间视角的苏南产业向苏北转移流强度测算及层域划分[J].软科学,2009,(4):78-82.
[4]孙久文.从北京与周边城市的经济联系看首都圈建设[J].投资区域,2014,(2):67-69.
[5]覃成林,梁夏瑜.广东产业转移与区域协调发展[J].国际经贸探索,2010,(7):44-49.
[6]左小德,张力方,梁云.产业转移的引力模型及实证研究[J].产经评论,2011,(5):47-54.
[7]巴斯帝哀.德泽[法],陈光庭摘译.城市交通与城市规划[J].城市问题,1983,(1):64-69.
[8]江兵,付丹阳,梁昌勇.基于扩展DEA的物流业能源效率评价研究[J].中国管理科学,2015,(S1):518-524.
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[10]郭建科,韩增林,王利.我国中心城市货运外向服务功能空间体系[J].地理研究,2012,(10):1849-1860.
[11]吴价宝,卢珂.基于多主体的港口物流协同机制研究——以江苏沿海港口物流为例[J].中国管理科学,2014,(Sl):440-446.
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[13]Clifford W.A disaggregate model of the demand for intercity freight transportation[J].Econometrica,1981,49,(4):981-1006.
[14]Harker P T,Friesz T L.Prediction of intercity freight flows,I:Theory[J].Transportation Research Part B:Methodological,1986 20(2):139-153.
[15]Ashtakala B,Murthy A S N.Sequential models to determine intercity commodity transportation demand[J].Transportation Research Part A.Policy and Practice,1993,27(5):373-382.
[16]Forkenbrock D J.External costs of intercity truck freight transportation[J].Transportation Research Part A.Policy and Practice,1999,33(7-8):505-526.
[17]Fernandez L J E,de Cea Ch J,So to A.A multi-modal supply-demand equilibrium model for predicting intercity freight flows[J].Transportation Research Part B:Methodological,2003,37(7):615-640.
[18]de Jong G,Vierth I.Tavasszy L,et al.Recent developments in national and international freight transport models within Europe[J].Transportation,2013,(40):347-371.
[19]Jin Y,Williams I.Shahkarami M.Integrated regional economic and freight logistics modeling:Results from a model for the Trans-Pennine Corridor,UK[C]//Proceedings of European Transport Policy and OperationsFreight and Logistics-Freight Modelling I,Strasbourg,France,September 18-20,2005.
[20]Bates J J.Freight modelling and policy analysis in the United Kingdom[R]//Proceedings of the CTS-seminar on European and National Freight Demand Models,Stockholm,2011.
[21]Zhong Ming,Hunt J D.Abraham J E.Design and development of a statewide land use transport model for Alberta[J]Journal of.Transp ortation.Systems.Engineering and Information,Technology,2007,7(1):79-91.
[22]Hansen C O.Freight modelling and policy analysis in Denmark[C]//Proceedings of the CTS-seminar on European and national freight demand models,Stockholm,2001.
[23]Samimi A.Mohammadian A.Kawamura K.Freight demand microsimulation in the U.S.[C]//Proceedings of world Conference on Transport Research(WCTR).Lisbon,July,2010.
[24]Lewe J H,Hivin L F,Mavris D N.A multi-paradigm approach to system dynamics modeling of intercity transportation[J].Transportation Research Part E:Logistics and Transportation Review,2014 71:188-202.
[25]Donovan P S.Ila M.A comprehensive theoretical model of the complex strategic demand management process[J].Transportation Journal 2015,54(2):213-39.
[26]徐旭,曹小曙,闫小培.不同指标下的穗港城市走廊潜在通达性及其空间格局[J].地理研究,2007,126(11):179-186.
[27]刘秉镰,杨明.城市物流园区需求预测的系统动力学模型构建[J].城市交通,2009,(5):21-25.
[28]Fujita M,Mori T.The role of ports in the making of major cities:Self-agglomeration and hub-effect[J].Journal of Development Economics 1996,49:93-120.
[29]Dixit A K.Stiglitz J E.Monopolistic competition and optimum product diversity[J].American Economic Review,1997,67(3):297-308.
[2]何奕,童牧.产业转移与产业集聚的动态与路径选择—基于长三角第二、三类制造业的研究[J].宏观经济研究,2008,(7):50-57.
[3]毛广雄,曹蕾.基于流空间视角的苏南产业向苏北转移流强度测算及层域划分[J].软科学,2009,(4):78-82.
[4]孙久文.从北京与周边城市的经济联系看首都圈建设[J].投资区域,2014,(2):67-69.
[5]覃成林,梁夏瑜.广东产业转移与区域协调发展[J].国际经贸探索,2010,(7):44-49.
[6]左小德,张力方,梁云.产业转移的引力模型及实证研究[J].产经评论,2011,(5):47-54.
[7]巴斯帝哀.德泽[法],陈光庭摘译.城市交通与城市规划[J].城市问题,1983,(1):64-69.
[8]江兵,付丹阳,梁昌勇.基于扩展DEA的物流业能源效率评价研究[J].中国管理科学,2015,(S1):518-524.
[9]斯蒂芬森[美].美国的交通运输[M].刘秉镰,译.北京:人民交通出版社,1990.
[10]郭建科,韩增林,王利.我国中心城市货运外向服务功能空间体系[J].地理研究,2012,(10):1849-1860.
[11]吴价宝,卢珂.基于多主体的港口物流协同机制研究——以江苏沿海港口物流为例[J].中国管理科学,2014,(Sl):440-446.
[12]Fujita M,Krugman P,Mori T,on the evolution of hierarchical urban systems[J].European Economic Review,1999,43:209-251.
[13]Clifford W.A disaggregate model of the demand for intercity freight transportation[J].Econometrica,1981,49,(4):981-1006.
[14]Harker P T,Friesz T L.Prediction of intercity freight flows,I:Theory[J].Transportation Research Part B:Methodological,1986 20(2):139-153.
[15]Ashtakala B,Murthy A S N.Sequential models to determine intercity commodity transportation demand[J].Transportation Research Part A.Policy and Practice,1993,27(5):373-382.
[16]Forkenbrock D J.External costs of intercity truck freight transportation[J].Transportation Research Part A.Policy and Practice,1999,33(7-8):505-526.
[17]Fernandez L J E,de Cea Ch J,So to A.A multi-modal supply-demand equilibrium model for predicting intercity freight flows[J].Transportation Research Part B:Methodological,2003,37(7):615-640.
[18]de Jong G,Vierth I.Tavasszy L,et al.Recent developments in national and international freight transport models within Europe[J].Transportation,2013,(40):347-371.
[19]Jin Y,Williams I.Shahkarami M.Integrated regional economic and freight logistics modeling:Results from a model for the Trans-Pennine Corridor,UK[C]//Proceedings of European Transport Policy and OperationsFreight and Logistics-Freight Modelling I,Strasbourg,France,September 18-20,2005.
[20]Bates J J.Freight modelling and policy analysis in the United Kingdom[R]//Proceedings of the CTS-seminar on European and National Freight Demand Models,Stockholm,2011.
[21]Zhong Ming,Hunt J D.Abraham J E.Design and development of a statewide land use transport model for Alberta[J]Journal of.Transp ortation.Systems.Engineering and Information,Technology,2007,7(1):79-91.
[22]Hansen C O.Freight modelling and policy analysis in Denmark[C]//Proceedings of the CTS-seminar on European and national freight demand models,Stockholm,2001.
[23]Samimi A.Mohammadian A.Kawamura K.Freight demand microsimulation in the U.S.[C]//Proceedings of world Conference on Transport Research(WCTR).Lisbon,July,2010.
[24]Lewe J H,Hivin L F,Mavris D N.A multi-paradigm approach to system dynamics modeling of intercity transportation[J].Transportation Research Part E:Logistics and Transportation Review,2014 71:188-202.
[25]Donovan P S.Ila M.A comprehensive theoretical model of the complex strategic demand management process[J].Transportation Journal 2015,54(2):213-39.
[26]徐旭,曹小曙,闫小培.不同指标下的穗港城市走廊潜在通达性及其空间格局[J].地理研究,2007,126(11):179-186.
[27]刘秉镰,杨明.城市物流园区需求预测的系统动力学模型构建[J].城市交通,2009,(5):21-25.
[28]Fujita M,Mori T.The role of ports in the making of major cities:Self-agglomeration and hub-effect[J].Journal of Development Economics 1996,49:93-120.
[29]Dixit A K.Stiglitz J E.Monopolistic competition and optimum product diversity[J].American Economic Review,1997,67(3):297-308.
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