核电厂正常运行和事故条件下大气扩散模式的适用性分析
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- 英文论文题名：Analysis of the suitability of atmospheric dispersion models used under normal operational and accident conditions of NPPs
- 论文作者：朱好 ; 熊章辉 ; 刘新建 ; 郑伟 ; 李凤菊 ; 王璐
- 英文论文作者：ZHU Hao ; XIONG Zhang-hui ; LIU Xin-jian ; ZHENG Wei ; LI Feng-ju ; WANG Lu ; China Nuclear Power Engineering Co. ; Ltd. ; Nuclear and Radiation Safety Center ; Ministry of Environmental Protection
- 年：2015
- 作者机构：中国核电工程有限公司;环境保护部核与辐射安全中心;
- 论文关键词：大气扩散模式 ; 正常运行 ; 概率风险评价 ; 实时后果评价 ; 气象场
- 英文论文关键词：atmospheric dispersion model ; normal operation ; probability risk assessment ; real-time consequence assessment ; meteorological field
- 会议召开时间：2015-09-21
- 会议录名称：中国核科学技术进展报告（第四卷）——中国核学会2015年学术年会论文集第5册（核材料分卷、辐射防护分卷）
- 语种：中文
- 分类号：TM623.8
- 学会代码：EGVD
- 会议名称：中国核学会2015年学术年会
- 会议地点：中国四川绵阳
- 主办单位：中国核学会
- 学会名称：中国核学会
- 页数：10
- 文件大小：624k
- 原文格式：O
- 会议级别：全国
摘要
大气扩散模拟是核电厂正常运行工况下剂量评价和事故后果评价系统的重要组成部分,决定了剂量评价的准确性、核电厂潜在事故条件下的环境风险,并直接影响事故后的应急决策。本文概述了国内外有代表性的用于正常运行剂量评价、概率风险评价和实时后果评价的大气扩散模式,对不同模式的特征、气象输入和适用范围进行了对比分析,指出应用中需要关注的问题,并探讨了今后大气扩散模式的发展前景。分析表明,对于空间均一风场、风速不太小和局地尺度的扩散,可采用高斯烟流模式;但对于复杂地形、长距离、小静风情况下的扩散,应采用其他适用模式,如拉格朗日轨迹烟团模式或随机粒子模式;对于内陆厂址冷却塔周围的扩散,需要采用CFD数值模式或风洞物理模拟。对于正常运行剂量评价系统,有必要开发接口程序来耦合其他大气扩散模式输出的浓度和沉积结果,作为剂量评价的输入,从而扩大剂量评价系统的适用范围和增强应用的灵活性。概率风险评价方面应开发更加多样化的大气扩散模式,并注重气象条件采样方案的选取。事故实时后果评价中,应关注气象场预报的准确性,开发嵌套模式,扩展多尺度的模拟能力,加强模式有效性的验证,并开展核事故情况下的扩散集合预报,加强国际交流合作,进一步提高实时后果评价系统的预报模拟能力,为应急响应和决策提供更优的技术支持。在实际应用中,根据应用目的的不同,需要对所采用的大气扩散模式的复杂程度、运行成本和模拟准确度之间进行权衡,选用适用的模式。
Atmospheric dispersion modeling is a critical component of the systems for NPP dose assessment under normal operational condition and nuclear accident consequence assessment.It determines the accuracy of dose assessment results and the environmental risk of potential accidents of an NPP.It also directly impacts a decision making process against a nuclear emergency.In this paper,representative national and foreign atmospheric dispersion models used for dose assessment under normal operational condition,and for probability risk assessment and real-time consequence assessment are reviewed.The characteristics,meteorological inputs,and suitability of various models are compared and analyzed.Problems that should be considered in application are indicated.The future prospects of atmospheric dispersion models are discussed.The results indicate that Gaussian-plume models can be used under spatially uniform wind field,windy conditions and for local scale dispersion.However,other appropriate models should be applied when the terrain is complex,the dispersion range is long,or the wind is calm or light.For the aspect of probability risk assessment,a diversity of atmospheric dispersion models should be developed.For real-time consequence assessment,the accuracy of meteorological forecasts is of particular concern.Nested atmospheric dispersion models of multi-scales should be developed,and model validation should be enhanced.In practical application,a balance between the model complexity,running cost,and the accuracy of modeling results should be taken into account.
Atmospheric dispersion modeling is a critical component of the systems for NPP dose assessment under normal operational condition and nuclear accident consequence assessment.It determines the accuracy of dose assessment results and the environmental risk of potential accidents of an NPP.It also directly impacts a decision making process against a nuclear emergency.In this paper,representative national and foreign atmospheric dispersion models used for dose assessment under normal operational condition,and for probability risk assessment and real-time consequence assessment are reviewed.The characteristics,meteorological inputs,and suitability of various models are compared and analyzed.Problems that should be considered in application are indicated.The future prospects of atmospheric dispersion models are discussed.The results indicate that Gaussian-plume models can be used under spatially uniform wind field,windy conditions and for local scale dispersion.However,other appropriate models should be applied when the terrain is complex,the dispersion range is long,or the wind is calm or light.For the aspect of probability risk assessment,a diversity of atmospheric dispersion models should be developed.For real-time consequence assessment,the accuracy of meteorological forecasts is of particular concern.Nested atmospheric dispersion models of multi-scales should be developed,and model validation should be enhanced.In practical application,a balance between the model complexity,running cost,and the accuracy of modeling results should be taken into account.
引文
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[2]崔慧玲,等.放射性核素长距离迁移模拟研究进展[J].辐射防护,2012,32(4):240-247.
[3]USNRC.Methods for estimating atmospheric transport and dispersion of gaseous effluents in routine releases from light-water-cooled reactors[R].Regulatory Guide 1.111,Revision 1,1977.
[4]IAEA.Generic models for use in assessing the impact of discharges of radioactive substances to the environment[R].Safety Reports Series No.19,2001.
[5]USNRC.XOQDOQ:computer program for the meteorological evaluation of routine effluent releases at nuclear power stations[R].NUREG/CR-2919,1982.
[6]Smith J G,Simmonds J R.The methodology for assessing the radiological consequences of routine releases of radionuclides to the environment used in PC-CREAM 08[R].HPA-RPD-058,2009.
[7]潘自强,等.中国核工业三十年辐射环境质量评价[M].北京:原子能出版社,1990:30-44.
[8]IRSN.SYMBIOSE:a simulation platform for performing radiological risk assessments[G].CNPE training workshop:Experience environmental assessment knowledge.Beijing,China,2013.
[9]聂邦胜.国内外常用的空气质量模式介绍[J].海洋技术,2008,27(1):118-121.
[10]朱好,等.内陆丘陵河谷地区小风条件下的大气扩散模拟研究[J].环境科学学报,2011,31(3):613-623.
[11]朱好,等.CALPUFF在复杂地形条件下的近场大气扩散模拟研究[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2013,49(3):452-462.
[12]Scire J S,Strimaitis D G,Yamartino R J.A user's guide for the CALPUFF dispersion model(version 5)[R].2000,Concord,MA:Earth Tech,Inc,l-36.
[13]USNRC.Atmospheric dispersion models for potential accident consequence assessments at nuclear power plants[R].Regulatory Guide 1.145,Revision 1,1982.
[14]USNRC.PANAN:an atmospheric dispersion program for evaluating design basis accidental releases of radioactive materials from nuclear power stations[R].NUREG/CR-2858,1982.
[15]姚仁太.核事故后果评价研究进展[J].辐射防护通讯,2009,29(1):1-10.
[16]USDOE.MACCS2 computer code application guidance for documented safety analysis[R].DOE-EH-4.2.1.4,2004.
[17]USNRC.Code manual for MACCS2:Volume 1,user's guide[R].NUREG/CR-6613,1998
[18]Commission of the European Communities.Cosyma:A new programme package for accident consequence assessment[R].EUR 13028 EN,1991.
[19]National Radiological Protection Board.PC COSYMA(Version 2):an accident consequence assessment package for use on a PC[R].EUR 16239.
[20]Bradley M.NARAC:an emergency response resource for predicting the atmospheric dispersion and assessing the consequences of airborne radionuclides[J].Journal of Environmental Radioactivity,2007,96:116-121.
[21]Nasstrom J.S.,Sugiyama G.,Leone J.M.et al.A real-time atmospheric dispersion modeling system[R].Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory,UCRL-JC-135120,1999.
[22]曲静原,曹建主.RODOS 4.0与RODOS的未来发展[J].辐射防护,2002,22(4):193-199.
[23]姚仁太,等.RODOS系统中两种大气弥散模型链的比较[J].辐射防护,2003,23(3):146-155.
[24]Hirohiko Ishikawa.Development of Worldwide Version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information;WSPEEDI,(Ⅲ)Revised Numerical Models,Integrated Software Environment and Verification[J].Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology,1994,31(9):969-978.
[25]Terada H.,et al.Improvement of Worldwide Version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information(WSPEEDI),(I)new combination of models,atmospheric dynamic model MM5 and particle random walk model GEARN-new[J].Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology,2004,41(5):632-640.
[26]USNRC.PRA procedures guide:a guide to the performance of probabilistic risk assessments for nuclear power plants[R].vol.2.NUREG/CR-2300,1983.
[27]国家核安全局.核电厂厂址选择的大气弥散问题[R].1987,HAD 101/02.
[28]蒋维楣等.空气污染气象学[M].南京:南京大学出版社,2003:219.
[29]Schulman L L,et al.Development and evaluation of the PRIME plume rise and building downwash model[J].Journal of the Air&Waste Management Association,2000,50:378-390.
[30]乔清党,等.内陆核电厂冷却塔对周围大气流动和污染物扩散影响的风洞实验研究[J].辐射防护,2011,31(3):141-149.
[31]USNRC.Comparison of average transport and dispersion among a Gaussian,a two-dimensional,and a threedimensional model[R].NUREG/CR-6853,2004.
[32]陈晓秋,潘自强,张永兴,等.核事故早期应急响应的预报模式及其设计方案[J].辐射防护,2005,25(1):1-10.