县域尺度环境脆弱性演变及其土地利用/覆盖效应
|
摘要
当前,人类正以空前的速度、幅度和空间规模影响着全球环境。人们通过土地利用而改变了地表覆被,土地利用/覆被变化则引起诸多自然要素和生态过程的变化,这在生态环境脆弱地区体现得更加明显。因此,土地利用/覆被的环境效应尤其是生态脆弱区的土地利用/覆被的环境效应得到各国科学家的重视,研究“人类驱动力-土地利用/土地覆被变化-全球变化-环境反馈”之间相互作用机制的“土地利用土地覆被变化”(LUCC)成为国际地圈-生物圈计划(IGBP)和全球环境变化中的人文因素计划(IHDP)重要的研究计划之一。而从目前的研究看,多数研究仍侧重于土地利用/覆被的变化,而对其造成的生态环境影响研究则显不足。
生态环境脆弱性是生态环境恶化的内因及生态环境重要属性。近年来,随着全球变化而导致的生态环境问题的突显,生态环境脆弱性受到越来越多的关注,国际生物学计划(IBP)、人与生物圈计划(MAB)以及地圈、生物圈计划(IGBP)都把生态环境脆弱性作为重要的研究领域。生态环境脆弱性除受自然环境条件的控制外,人类活动也是影响其变化的重要因素,人类不合理的土地利用方式将会加剧生态环境的脆弱程度。中国的资源环境问题尤为严重,人地矛盾非常突出,同时也是世界上生态环境脆弱区分布面积最大、脆弱生态环境类型最多、环境脆弱性表现最明显的国家之一。加强生态环境脆弱性研究,对环境脆弱区保护、解决生态环境恶化问题和促进人与自然的和谐共处都具有重要意义
本研究针对目前环境脆弱性研究领域中存在的主要问题,围绕环境脆弱性评价、时空变化及土地利用对环境脆弱性影响三个问题重点展开讨论。
首先,对环境脆弱性的内涵和实质进行了较深入的剖析。在分析环境脆弱性形成机理的基础上,对其进行了定性描述和定量表达。从环境-外界与环境内部组成两个层面上对环境脆弱性进行分析,明确了环境脆弱性的显现条件、实质和特点。基于此,对环境脆弱性的动态演化过程进行了进一步分析并对生态环境脆弱性的基本特性进行系统的归纳总结。
其次,进行了县域尺度生态环境脆弱性的动态评价。在对生态环境脆弱性主要属性重新界定基础上,分别从稳定性、敏感性和区域适应性三个方面选取评价指标构建指标体系,建立了评价模型,并对该县1986-2003年的生态环境脆弱性发展变化进行了动态分析。研究结果不仅揭示了1986-2003年期间垦利县生态环境的稳定程度、敏感性和区域适应性的发展趋势,环境自然因子的敏感性分析显示:自然因子的敏感排序结果为地下水埋深>蒸降比>地下水矿化度>气温,确定地下水埋深、蒸降比和地下水矿化度为该区生态环境自然敏感因子。垦利县区域适应性的“障碍度”计算结果表明:盐碱地治理比例始终是第一障碍因素;农田防护林密度的限制集中出现在1995-1998年之间;化肥农药递减率自2000年以后成为主要障碍因素;有效灌溉面积比率和排涝体系面积比例的限制在1990年之前出现。表明了该评价方法可体现出县域生态环境脆弱性的根本原因及其发展变化过程,能反应环境脆弱性多方面特性,对环境决策和管理指导意义更明显。
第三,应用熵、突变论等非线性科学理论方法研究了生态环境脆弱性的时空演变。采用信息熵理论对环境脆弱性进行量化表达,借助遥感手段获取数据,设置生态环境样方并计算其环境脆弱度,在此基础上分析了1987-2005年间样方生态环境脆弱性状况。基于突变理论确定了脆弱性发生的时间点和条件,明确了突变的原因和特征;在空间层面,从与黄河和海洋不同距离的两个方向线上,分析了生态环境脆弱性的空间变化规律,结果证明了生态环境脆弱性空间上的渐变性。
第四,在分析县域尺度环境脆弱性的动态演变规律和脆弱性发生条件和时间的基础上,从土地利用角度入手,分别采用统计分析和定量方法对LUCC对环境脆弱性的影响进行了研究。首先,通过遥感影像解译获取土地利用信息,并结合垦利县生态脆弱性状况和遥感影像特点,确定地表的植被状况、土壤水分以及地表蒸腾强度为环境脆弱性因子,并以遥感指标表示,通过将其与LUCC进行连接,分析土地利用对环境脆弱因子的影响,得到土地利用类型的环境因子的顺序,在此基础上,根据人类对土地的干扰或利用强度,将土地利用/覆被进一步归类合并,分为不同级别干扰型用地,按面积平差后计算各环境脆弱性因子的值,得到不同干扰度的环境脆弱因子值的计算结果。
定量方法的研究又分成两部分进行。一是利用生态位理论度量土地利用对环境脆弱性的影响。结合生态位和生态适宜理论建立了土地利用的环境脆弱性效应的理论框架,在此基础上划分土地生态单元,确定土地利用的需求生态位,计算各单元土地利用的生态环境脆弱效应值。并根据效应值将土地利用的环境脆弱效应划分为四个级别:不脆弱、临界脆弱、轻度脆弱、重度脆弱;二是从土地利用类型的角度,对土地利用/覆被的环境脆弱性效应进行综合评价。在分析土地利用类型对生态环境脆弱性的影响的基础上,构建了包括土地利用类型的空间格局、土地利用类型的生态适宜性和土地利用类型的稳定性等三方面指标构成的评价指标体系。以遥感手段获取土地利用类型信息,层次分析法确定其权重,在此基础上,构建了土地利用类型的空间格局指数模型、土地利用类型的稳定性指数模型以及土地利用生态适宜性指数模型,并进而构建了垦利县土地利用的生态环境脆弱性效应综合指数模型。通过评价,得到了垦利县县域整体和乡镇两个尺度上的土地利用类型生态环境脆弱性综合效应值,系统分析了土地利用类型对生态环境脆弱性的影响及其空间分异。根据评价结果进行了垦利县土地利用的调整分区,提出了各区生态环境建设的措施建议。
At present, human being is affecting the global environment deeply at a wide extent and spatial scale, and land use has changed the earth's surface, which cuased changes in natural key elements and biological process; this effects are especially obvious in vulnerable areas. Therefore, the environmental effects of land use/ cover especially in vulnerable area have gotten more attention. The research on the interact of " human being driving force- land use/ cover change- the global change- environment feedback " becomes one of the important program in the International Humanity Factor Program (IHDP) and the International Geosphere Biosphere Program (IGBP). Up to now, the majority studies still put emphasis on the changes of the land use, while reseaches on the environmental effect of the land use caused by human activities appears insufficient.
Environment vulnerability is the internal cause and important attribute of the environment. Ecological environment problems become intense in recent years, so the environment vulnerability catches more and more attention. The International Biology Plans (IBP), the Man and Biosphere Plan (MAB) and the International Geosphere Biosphere Program (IGBP) all take the environment vulnerability as the important field. The environment vulnerability is affected by the natural environmental conditions and the human being activities, and improper land use will be able to aggravate environment vulnerability degree. Chinese resource environment problem is especially severe, the contradiction of person and land is obvious, and china is one of the countries that have the maximum vulnerable area, maximum vulnerability types and the most obvious vulnerability. Therefore, the environment vulnerability study is especially important for preserving the environment and harmonizeing the relation between man and nature in China.
Based on the main problems in the environment vulnerability study, this paper mainly discussed the environment vulnerability evaluation, spatio-temporal changes and the land use impacts on environment vulnerability.
First, connotation and essence of the environment vulnerability have analyzed. We got the qualitative description and expression of the environment vulnerability based on theist forming mechanism. Environment vulnerability was analyzed from two levels of external comprise and internal environment. The emergence condition, essence and characteristics were ascertained. Owing to that, the environment vulnerability evolvement was analyzed.
Secondly, the dynamic changes of environmental vulnerability at county level were assessed. Based on the requirements of environment management, focused on county level, this paper clarified the attributes of environmental vulnerability, selected evaluation indexes from three aspects of stability, sensitivity and applicability, and established the evaluation models, so as to systematically assess environmental vulnerability within county area. The results indicated that the environmental stability of Kenli County was instable, the environmental sensitivity appeared a descend trend and the environmental adaptability showed an uptrend as a whole during 1986-2003. The natural factor sensitivity analysis of Kenli County showed that their sensitivity sequence was that the groundwater level>evaporation and precipitation ratio>groundwater salinity>air temperature. Therefore, the natural sensitive factors of the study area were determined as the former three. The results of obstacle degree of regional adaptability indicated that the saline-alkali soil amelioration rate was the most important obstacle factor during 1986-2003, the restriction of the farmland shelter-forest density mainly appeared during 1995-1998, and the pesticide and fertilization application became the main obstacle since 2000, and the effective irrigation area ratio and the drainage system area ratio raised as the problem before 1990. The conclusions are that the environmental vulnerability of Kenli County is declining, but still in vulnerable state. At the same time, Kenli County should put the emphases on the development of the sensitive and obstacle factors. The assessment method can find the fundamental reasons and the development process of the county environmental vulnerability, which is significant for the current domestic study.
Thirdly, this paper utilized the entropy theory and catastrophe theory to study the environmental vulnerability. Spatial-temporal variations of environmental vulnerability in Kenli County of the Yellow River Delta were systematically analyzed through environment samples and remote sensing techniques. Methods of analysis and estimation for the environmental vulnerability catastrophe were established. Our results indicated that the environment of the sample tended to deteriorating during the period of 1987 to 2005, and two catastrophes of environmental vulnerability occurred, one was in 1997, and the other in 2004. Their causes and characteristics were specified accordingly. In addition, spatial variations of environmental vulnerability along two direction lines of different distances to the Yellow River and to the ocean in Kenli County were analyzed, while the results testified the spatial gradual changing pattern of environmental vulnerability.
Fourthly, based on the above analysis, this paper analyzed and assessed the impacts of land use on environmental vulnerability in Kenli County focusing on land use types.
First, the remote sensing technique was adopted to acquire the land use information, and the vegetation conditions, soil water and surface evaporation were selected as the environmental vulnerability according to the actual situation in Kenli County and the RS image characteristic, which were also expressed by the RS indicators. The impacts of land use on vironmental vulnerability were analyzed through spatial lingking the environmental vulnerability factors and the land use. The vironmental vulnerability factors sequence of different land use type was got. The land use types were classified according to the disturb strength of human. The environmental vulnerability of different disturb degree was calculated by area weights.
The quantitative study was divided into two parts, on one hand, the land use impacts to environmental vulnerability was calculated by ecologyical niche. The theoretical framework of land use’s effect to vironmental vulnerability was established according to niche and suitability theories. Based on this, land ecological units were compartmentalized, and the requirement niche of land use was confirmed. Then the unit’s vironmental vulnerability effects of land use were calculated, which were marked into four grades: not vulnerable, verge vulnerable, low-grade and high-grade vulnerable. On the other hand, focused on the land use types, the impacts of land use on environmental vulnerability was assessed, the assessment index system including landscape structure and pattern, land use ecological applicability and land use stability was established. Remote Sensing techniques were adopted to acquire land use information, expert decision method was used for index quantification, and AHP method was adopted for index weight determination. Based on these, the landscape structure and pattern index model, land use ecological applicability index model and land use stability index model were built up, and land use environment vulnerability effect index models were established accordingly. Through assessment, we got the land use environment vulnerability effect index values in two scales of the county and town. Land use impacts on environmental vulnerability and their spatial distribution were discovered. Based on the results, partition of land use adjustment in Kenli County was proposed, and countermeasures of ecological construction in different areas were brought forward.
生态环境脆弱性是生态环境恶化的内因及生态环境重要属性。近年来,随着全球变化而导致的生态环境问题的突显,生态环境脆弱性受到越来越多的关注,国际生物学计划(IBP)、人与生物圈计划(MAB)以及地圈、生物圈计划(IGBP)都把生态环境脆弱性作为重要的研究领域。生态环境脆弱性除受自然环境条件的控制外,人类活动也是影响其变化的重要因素,人类不合理的土地利用方式将会加剧生态环境的脆弱程度。中国的资源环境问题尤为严重,人地矛盾非常突出,同时也是世界上生态环境脆弱区分布面积最大、脆弱生态环境类型最多、环境脆弱性表现最明显的国家之一。加强生态环境脆弱性研究,对环境脆弱区保护、解决生态环境恶化问题和促进人与自然的和谐共处都具有重要意义
本研究针对目前环境脆弱性研究领域中存在的主要问题,围绕环境脆弱性评价、时空变化及土地利用对环境脆弱性影响三个问题重点展开讨论。
首先,对环境脆弱性的内涵和实质进行了较深入的剖析。在分析环境脆弱性形成机理的基础上,对其进行了定性描述和定量表达。从环境-外界与环境内部组成两个层面上对环境脆弱性进行分析,明确了环境脆弱性的显现条件、实质和特点。基于此,对环境脆弱性的动态演化过程进行了进一步分析并对生态环境脆弱性的基本特性进行系统的归纳总结。
其次,进行了县域尺度生态环境脆弱性的动态评价。在对生态环境脆弱性主要属性重新界定基础上,分别从稳定性、敏感性和区域适应性三个方面选取评价指标构建指标体系,建立了评价模型,并对该县1986-2003年的生态环境脆弱性发展变化进行了动态分析。研究结果不仅揭示了1986-2003年期间垦利县生态环境的稳定程度、敏感性和区域适应性的发展趋势,环境自然因子的敏感性分析显示:自然因子的敏感排序结果为地下水埋深>蒸降比>地下水矿化度>气温,确定地下水埋深、蒸降比和地下水矿化度为该区生态环境自然敏感因子。垦利县区域适应性的“障碍度”计算结果表明:盐碱地治理比例始终是第一障碍因素;农田防护林密度的限制集中出现在1995-1998年之间;化肥农药递减率自2000年以后成为主要障碍因素;有效灌溉面积比率和排涝体系面积比例的限制在1990年之前出现。表明了该评价方法可体现出县域生态环境脆弱性的根本原因及其发展变化过程,能反应环境脆弱性多方面特性,对环境决策和管理指导意义更明显。
第三,应用熵、突变论等非线性科学理论方法研究了生态环境脆弱性的时空演变。采用信息熵理论对环境脆弱性进行量化表达,借助遥感手段获取数据,设置生态环境样方并计算其环境脆弱度,在此基础上分析了1987-2005年间样方生态环境脆弱性状况。基于突变理论确定了脆弱性发生的时间点和条件,明确了突变的原因和特征;在空间层面,从与黄河和海洋不同距离的两个方向线上,分析了生态环境脆弱性的空间变化规律,结果证明了生态环境脆弱性空间上的渐变性。
第四,在分析县域尺度环境脆弱性的动态演变规律和脆弱性发生条件和时间的基础上,从土地利用角度入手,分别采用统计分析和定量方法对LUCC对环境脆弱性的影响进行了研究。首先,通过遥感影像解译获取土地利用信息,并结合垦利县生态脆弱性状况和遥感影像特点,确定地表的植被状况、土壤水分以及地表蒸腾强度为环境脆弱性因子,并以遥感指标表示,通过将其与LUCC进行连接,分析土地利用对环境脆弱因子的影响,得到土地利用类型的环境因子的顺序,在此基础上,根据人类对土地的干扰或利用强度,将土地利用/覆被进一步归类合并,分为不同级别干扰型用地,按面积平差后计算各环境脆弱性因子的值,得到不同干扰度的环境脆弱因子值的计算结果。
定量方法的研究又分成两部分进行。一是利用生态位理论度量土地利用对环境脆弱性的影响。结合生态位和生态适宜理论建立了土地利用的环境脆弱性效应的理论框架,在此基础上划分土地生态单元,确定土地利用的需求生态位,计算各单元土地利用的生态环境脆弱效应值。并根据效应值将土地利用的环境脆弱效应划分为四个级别:不脆弱、临界脆弱、轻度脆弱、重度脆弱;二是从土地利用类型的角度,对土地利用/覆被的环境脆弱性效应进行综合评价。在分析土地利用类型对生态环境脆弱性的影响的基础上,构建了包括土地利用类型的空间格局、土地利用类型的生态适宜性和土地利用类型的稳定性等三方面指标构成的评价指标体系。以遥感手段获取土地利用类型信息,层次分析法确定其权重,在此基础上,构建了土地利用类型的空间格局指数模型、土地利用类型的稳定性指数模型以及土地利用生态适宜性指数模型,并进而构建了垦利县土地利用的生态环境脆弱性效应综合指数模型。通过评价,得到了垦利县县域整体和乡镇两个尺度上的土地利用类型生态环境脆弱性综合效应值,系统分析了土地利用类型对生态环境脆弱性的影响及其空间分异。根据评价结果进行了垦利县土地利用的调整分区,提出了各区生态环境建设的措施建议。
At present, human being is affecting the global environment deeply at a wide extent and spatial scale, and land use has changed the earth's surface, which cuased changes in natural key elements and biological process; this effects are especially obvious in vulnerable areas. Therefore, the environmental effects of land use/ cover especially in vulnerable area have gotten more attention. The research on the interact of " human being driving force- land use/ cover change- the global change- environment feedback " becomes one of the important program in the International Humanity Factor Program (IHDP) and the International Geosphere Biosphere Program (IGBP). Up to now, the majority studies still put emphasis on the changes of the land use, while reseaches on the environmental effect of the land use caused by human activities appears insufficient.
Environment vulnerability is the internal cause and important attribute of the environment. Ecological environment problems become intense in recent years, so the environment vulnerability catches more and more attention. The International Biology Plans (IBP), the Man and Biosphere Plan (MAB) and the International Geosphere Biosphere Program (IGBP) all take the environment vulnerability as the important field. The environment vulnerability is affected by the natural environmental conditions and the human being activities, and improper land use will be able to aggravate environment vulnerability degree. Chinese resource environment problem is especially severe, the contradiction of person and land is obvious, and china is one of the countries that have the maximum vulnerable area, maximum vulnerability types and the most obvious vulnerability. Therefore, the environment vulnerability study is especially important for preserving the environment and harmonizeing the relation between man and nature in China.
Based on the main problems in the environment vulnerability study, this paper mainly discussed the environment vulnerability evaluation, spatio-temporal changes and the land use impacts on environment vulnerability.
First, connotation and essence of the environment vulnerability have analyzed. We got the qualitative description and expression of the environment vulnerability based on theist forming mechanism. Environment vulnerability was analyzed from two levels of external comprise and internal environment. The emergence condition, essence and characteristics were ascertained. Owing to that, the environment vulnerability evolvement was analyzed.
Secondly, the dynamic changes of environmental vulnerability at county level were assessed. Based on the requirements of environment management, focused on county level, this paper clarified the attributes of environmental vulnerability, selected evaluation indexes from three aspects of stability, sensitivity and applicability, and established the evaluation models, so as to systematically assess environmental vulnerability within county area. The results indicated that the environmental stability of Kenli County was instable, the environmental sensitivity appeared a descend trend and the environmental adaptability showed an uptrend as a whole during 1986-2003. The natural factor sensitivity analysis of Kenli County showed that their sensitivity sequence was that the groundwater level>evaporation and precipitation ratio>groundwater salinity>air temperature. Therefore, the natural sensitive factors of the study area were determined as the former three. The results of obstacle degree of regional adaptability indicated that the saline-alkali soil amelioration rate was the most important obstacle factor during 1986-2003, the restriction of the farmland shelter-forest density mainly appeared during 1995-1998, and the pesticide and fertilization application became the main obstacle since 2000, and the effective irrigation area ratio and the drainage system area ratio raised as the problem before 1990. The conclusions are that the environmental vulnerability of Kenli County is declining, but still in vulnerable state. At the same time, Kenli County should put the emphases on the development of the sensitive and obstacle factors. The assessment method can find the fundamental reasons and the development process of the county environmental vulnerability, which is significant for the current domestic study.
Thirdly, this paper utilized the entropy theory and catastrophe theory to study the environmental vulnerability. Spatial-temporal variations of environmental vulnerability in Kenli County of the Yellow River Delta were systematically analyzed through environment samples and remote sensing techniques. Methods of analysis and estimation for the environmental vulnerability catastrophe were established. Our results indicated that the environment of the sample tended to deteriorating during the period of 1987 to 2005, and two catastrophes of environmental vulnerability occurred, one was in 1997, and the other in 2004. Their causes and characteristics were specified accordingly. In addition, spatial variations of environmental vulnerability along two direction lines of different distances to the Yellow River and to the ocean in Kenli County were analyzed, while the results testified the spatial gradual changing pattern of environmental vulnerability.
Fourthly, based on the above analysis, this paper analyzed and assessed the impacts of land use on environmental vulnerability in Kenli County focusing on land use types.
First, the remote sensing technique was adopted to acquire the land use information, and the vegetation conditions, soil water and surface evaporation were selected as the environmental vulnerability according to the actual situation in Kenli County and the RS image characteristic, which were also expressed by the RS indicators. The impacts of land use on vironmental vulnerability were analyzed through spatial lingking the environmental vulnerability factors and the land use. The vironmental vulnerability factors sequence of different land use type was got. The land use types were classified according to the disturb strength of human. The environmental vulnerability of different disturb degree was calculated by area weights.
The quantitative study was divided into two parts, on one hand, the land use impacts to environmental vulnerability was calculated by ecologyical niche. The theoretical framework of land use’s effect to vironmental vulnerability was established according to niche and suitability theories. Based on this, land ecological units were compartmentalized, and the requirement niche of land use was confirmed. Then the unit’s vironmental vulnerability effects of land use were calculated, which were marked into four grades: not vulnerable, verge vulnerable, low-grade and high-grade vulnerable. On the other hand, focused on the land use types, the impacts of land use on environmental vulnerability was assessed, the assessment index system including landscape structure and pattern, land use ecological applicability and land use stability was established. Remote Sensing techniques were adopted to acquire land use information, expert decision method was used for index quantification, and AHP method was adopted for index weight determination. Based on these, the landscape structure and pattern index model, land use ecological applicability index model and land use stability index model were built up, and land use environment vulnerability effect index models were established accordingly. Through assessment, we got the land use environment vulnerability effect index values in two scales of the county and town. Land use impacts on environmental vulnerability and their spatial distribution were discovered. Based on the results, partition of land use adjustment in Kenli County was proposed, and countermeasures of ecological construction in different areas were brought forward.
引文
[1] Adger W N. Vulnerability[J].Global Environmental Change, 2006,16:268-281.
[2] Adger W N.,Kelly P M.Social vulnerability to climate change and the architecture of entitlements[J].Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,1999,4:253~266.
[3] Blaikie,P.M.,Brookfield,H.C..Land Degradation and Society[M].London:Methuen,1987.
[4] Bodin O,Norberg J.Information network topologies for enhanced local adaptive management[J].Environmental Management,2005,35:175~193.
[5] Burton I,Kates R W,White G F.The Environment as Hazard[M].New York:Oxford University Press,1978.
[6] Burton I.,Kates R W.,and White G F. The environment as Hazand[M].Second Edition, New York:The Guilford Press,1993.
[7] Carpenter S R,Brock W A.Spatial complexity,resilience and policy diversity:fishing on lake-rich landscapes.Ecology and Society 9(1),8[J/OL],Waterloo,Canada:Resilience Alliance Publications,2004[2004-3-15] http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol9/iss1/art8/.
[8] Clatter S L. Vulnerability to environmental hazards[J]. Progress in Human Geography, 1996, 20: 529-539
[9] Clatter S L, Boruff B J, Shirley W L. Social vulnerability to environmental hazards[J]. Social Science Quarterly, 2003, 84: 242-261.
[10] Davis F.M., Dozier J., Mutual information analysis of spatial database for ecological landscape classification[J]. Phtogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, 1990, 54.
[11] Dietz T, Ostrom E, Stern P. The struggle to govern the commons[J]. Science, 2003, 302: 1907-1912
[12] Doerfliger N. et al. Water vulnerability assessment in Karst environments a new method of defining protection areas using a multiattribute approach and GIS tools[J].Environmental Geology,1999, 39(2):165-176.
[13] Dow K. Exploring differences in our common future(s): the meaning of vulnerability to global environmental change[J]. Geoforum, 1992, 23: 417-436
[14] Downing T.Vulnerability to hunger in Africa:a climate change perspective[J].Global Environmental Change,1991,1:365~380.
[15] Environmental Protection Agence (EPA), Landscape monitoring and assessment research plan. EPA 620/R-94/009, Office of Research and Development, Washington, D.C., 1994.
[16] Eric F. Lambin, B.L. Turner, Helmut J. Geist, et al. The causes of land-use and land-cover change: moving beyond the myths[J]. Globle Environment Change 2001, (11): 261-269.
[17] Fankhauser S,Smith J B,Tol,R S J.Weathering climate change:some simple rules to guide adaptation decisions[J].Ecological Economics,1999,30:67~78.
[18] FAO. Rome declaration on world food security and world food summit plan of action. Rome: FAO,1996.
[19] Folke C, Hahn T, Olsson P, Norberg J. Adaptive governance of social-ecological systems[J]. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 2005, 30: 441-473.
[20] Gallopin G C,Gutman P,Maletta H.Global impoverishment,sustainable development and the environment.A conceptual approach[J].International Social Science Journal,1989,121:375~397.
[21] Gallopin G C. A systemic synthesis of the relations between vulnerability, hazard, exposure and impact, aimed at policy identification.//Economic Commission for Latin American and the Caribbean. Handbook for Estimating the Socio- Economic and Environmental Effects of Disasters. ECLAC. Mexico: D.F.LGMEX/G.S., 2003,25
[22] Gallopin G C. Linkages between vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity[J].Global Environmental Change, 2006, 16:293-303.
[23] Gogu R C.,Dassargues A. Current trends and future challenges in groundwater vulnerability assessment using overlay and index methods [J].Environment Geology,2000,39(6):549-559.
[24] H.I.EL-GAMILY, S.NASR and M.EL-RAEY. An assessment of natural and human-induced changes along Hurghada and Ras Abu Soma coastal area, Red Sea, Egypt [J]. INT. J. REMOTE SENING, 2001,22(15): 2999-3014.
[25] Hobbs R J.Effects of landscape fragmentation on ecosystem processes in the Western Austrlian wheatbelt [J].Biological Conservation,1993,64(3):193-201.
[26] Holling C S. Resilience and stability of ecological systems[J].Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 1973, 4:1-23.
[27] IPCC. Technical Summary: CLIMATE CHANGE 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Cambridge[M]. Cambridge University Press, 2001.
[28] IPCC. The fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (Summart' for policymakers of the report). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007.
[29] Johson L.B., Analysing spatial and temporal phenomena using Geographical Information Systems[J]. Landscape Ecology, 1990,4(1): 31-43.
[30] J. Slater, R. Brown. Changing landscapes: monitoring Environmentally Sensitive Areas using satellite imagery[J]. INT. J. Remote Sensing, 2000, 21(13): 2753-2767.
[31] Janssen M A,Walker B H,Langridge J,et al.An adaptive agent model for analysing co-evolution of management and policies in a complex rangeland system[J].Ecological Modelling,2000,131:249~268.
[32] Kaly U. Briguglio L, McLeod H, Pratt C, Schmall S. and Pal R. 1999. Report on the Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) Think Tank, 7-10 September 1999, Pacific Harbour, Fiji. SOPAC Technical Report 299.
[33] Kenneth Hewitt. Regions of Risk[M]. Produced by Longman Singapore Publisher(Pte) Ltd. Printed in Singapore,1997.
[34] Lambin E. F, Baulies X, Bockstael N, etal. Land-use and land-cover change[R]. Implementation Strategy. IGBP report No. 48, IHDP report No.10, 1999.
[35] Louisa J. M. Jansen, Antonio Di Gregorio. Parametric land cover and land-use classification as tools for environmental change detection[J]. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 2002(91): 89-100.
[36] Louisa J. M. Jansen, Antonio Di Gregorio. Parametric land cover and land-use classification as tools for environmental change detection[J]. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 2002(91): 89-100.
[37] Lovendal, Christian R. et al.. Understanding Vulnerability to Food insecurity Lessons from Vulnerable Livelihood Profiling [DB/OL]. ESA Working Paper No.04/18. ESA, FAO: 2004.http:www.fao.org//docrep/007/ae2203/ae220e00.html.
[38] Milne B.T., Lessons from applying fractal models to landscape patterns. In: Quantitative Methods in Landscape Ecology[M], New York, 1991.
[39] MOORE BⅢ. International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme: A study of global change, some reflections [Z]. IGBP News Letter, 2000, 40: 1-3.
[40] O’Brien M,Holland T D.The role of adaptation in archeological explanation[J].American Antiquity,1992,57:36~69.
[41] Ojima D S, Kittel T G T, Rosswall T,et al. Critical issues for understanding global change effects on terrestrial ecosystems [J]. EcolAppl,1991,1:316～325.
[42] O’neill R.V., Krummel J.R., Gardner R.H., et al, Indices of Landscape pattern[J]. Landscape Ecology, 1988, 1: 153-162.
[43] Orians G. Diversity, stability and maturity in natural ecosystems Unifying Concepts in Ecology[M]. The Hague: Dr W. Junk Publishers,1975,139-158.
[44] Pantin, D. 1997. Alternative Ecological Vulnerability Indicators for Developing Countries with Special Reference to SIDS. Report Prepared for the Expert Group on Vulnerability Indices, UN-DESA, 17-19 December 1997.
[45] Q. Weng. A remote sensing-GIS evaluation of urban expansion and its impact on surface temperature in the Zhujiang Delta, China[J]. INT. J. Remote Sensing, 2001, 22(10): 1999-2014.
[46] Radeloff, Volker C. Exploring the Spatial Relationship Between Census and Land-cover Data [J]. Society & Natural Resources, 2000, 13(6): 599-611.
[47] Riebsame W E, Meyer W B, Turner II B L. Modeling Land use and cover as part of global environmental change [J]. Climate Change, 1994, (28): 45-64.
[48] Radeloff, Volker C. Exploring the Spatial Relationship Between Census and Land-cover Data [J]. Society & Natural Resources, 2000, 13(6): 599-611.
[49] Rewillard M.M., Welch R.A., GIS technologies for aquctic macrophyte studies: modeling applications[J]. Landscape Ecology, 1993, 8(3): 163-175.
[50] Riebsame W E, Meyer W B, Turner II B L. Modeling Land use and cover as part of global environmental change [J]. Climate Change, 1994, (28): 45-64.
[51] Scientific-Technical Analyses, the Second Assessment Report of IPCC. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995.
[52] Scluiiter D, Polsky C, Patt A G. Assessing vulnerabilities to the effects of global change: An eight step approach[J]. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2005, 10 (4): 573-595.
[53] Sen A K. Resources, Values and Development[M]. Oxford: Blackwell, 1984.
[54] Smit B,Burton I,Klein R,Wandel J.An anatomy of adaptation to climate change and variability[J].Climatic Change,2000,45:223-251.
[55] Smit B J,Wandel.Adaptation,adaptive capacity and vulnerability[J].Global Environmental Change,2006,16:282-292.
[56] Smithers J,Smit B.Human adaptation to climatic variability and change[J].Global Environmental Change,1997,7(2),129~146.
[57] Turner II B. L., Moss R. H, Skole D.L., Relation of land use and global land cover change[R]. IGBP Report No. 24 and HDP Report No.5. Stochkholm, IGBP. 1993.
[58] Turner II B L, Skole D, Sanderson S et al. Land-use and land-cover change science/research plan[R]. IGBP Report No. 35 and HDP Report NO.7. Stochkholm IGBP, 1995.
[59] Turner II B L, Skole D, G. Fisher et al, Land-use and land-cover changes: science/research plan[R]. IGBP Report No. 5. Stochkholm, IGBP. 1995.
[60] Vogel C. Vulnerability and global environmental change[J]. LUCC Newsletter, 1998, 3: 15-19
[61] Vrba J, Zaporozec A. Guide book on mapping groundwater vulnerability. International contributions to hydrogeology[M]. Hannover:GFR,1994.16
[62] Watson R T, Zinyowera M C, Moss R H. eds .The Regional Impacts of Climate Change:An Assessment of Vulnerability Cambridge[M]. Cambridge University Press, 1997.
[63] William E. R, William B M, Turner II B L. Modeling land use and land cover as part of global environmental change[J]. Climatic Change, 1994, 28:45-64.
[64] Westman W E. Measuring the inertia and resilience of ecosysterns[J]. BioScience,1978,28:47-60.
[65] Whittaker R H. Communities and ecosystem[M].New York:Macmillan Publishing Corporation, 1975,169-181.
[66] Wickham J.D. and Ritters K.H., Sensitivity of landscape metrics to pixel size[J]. International Journal of Remote Sensing. 1995, 16: 3585-3594.
[67] Wickham J.D., Norton D.J., Mapping and analysing landscape patterns[J]. Landscape Ecology, 1994, 9(1): 7-23.
[68] William E. R, William B M, Turner II B L. Modeling land use and land cover as part of global environmental change[J]. Climatic Change, 1994, 28:45-64.
[69] Yukio Himiyama. Some thougts on human aspects of LUCC in Japan and China[A]. Proceeding of International Conference on Land Use/Cover Change Dynamics. Beijing: LUCC, 2001, 17-26.
[70]摆万奇,赵士洞.土地利用和土地覆盖变化研究模型综述.自然资源学报, 1997,12(2): 169-175.
[71]摆万奇.深圳市土地利用动态趋势分析[J].自然资源学报. 2000,15(2): 112-116.
[72]蔡运龙.土地利用/土地覆被变化研究:寻求新的综合途径[J].地理研究, 2001,20(6): 645-652.
[73]常军.基于RS和GIS的黄河三角洲海岸线动态变化监测与模拟预测研究[D].山东师范大学硕士学位论文, 2001.
[74]陈百明.试论中国土地利用和土地覆被变化及其人类驱动力研究[J].自然资源, 1997,2 :31-35.
[75]陈葵.鄱阳湖区土地利用遥感快速解译[J].江西农业大学学报, 2001, 23(3): 421-424.
[76]陈四清,刘纪远,庄大方等.基于Landsat TM/ETM数据的锡林河流域土地覆盖变化.地理学报, 2003, 58(1): 45-52.
[77]陈佑启, Peter H. Verburg.基于GIS的中国土地利用变化及其影响模型[J].生态科学, 2000,19(3):1-7.
[78]陈佑启,杨鹏.国际上土地利用/土地覆盖变化研究的新进展[J].经济地理, 2001, 21(1): 95-100.
[79]邓慧平,李秀彬,陈军锋等.流域土地覆被变化水文效应的模拟-以长江上游源头区梭磨河为例[J].地理学报, 2003, 58(1): 53-62.
[80]董玉祥,陈克龙.长江上游地区土地沙漠化现状及其驱动力研究[J].长江流域资源与环境, 2002,11(1):84-88.
[81]冯春,陈建平.土地利用/土地覆盖研究中遥感图像分类精度的提高方法[J].地理与地理信息科学. 2003 19(3): 26-28.
[82]符淙斌.全球变化科学的发展[J].科学, 2001, 52(6): 3-5
[83]符淙斌,温刚,周嗣松等.我国大陆植被变化的气象卫星遥感[J].科学通报, 1992, 37(16): 1486-1488.
[84]江源,刘硕.城市土地利用下的植物物种资源特征分析[J].自然资源学报, 1999, 14(4): 359-362.
[85]李秀彬.全球环境变化研究的核心领域—土地利用/覆盖变化的国际研究动向[J].地理学报,1996,51(6):553-557.
[86]李秀彬.中国近20年来耕地面积的变化及其政策启示[J].自然资源学报,1999,14(4): 329-333.
[87]龙花楼,李秀彬.长江沿线样带土地利用格局及其影响因子分析[J].地理学报, 2001,56(4):417-425.
[88]史培军,陈晋,潘耀忠.深圳市土地利用变化机制分析[J].地理学报, 2000, 55(2): 151~160.
[89]史培军,宫鹏,李晓兵等.土地利用/覆盖变化研究的方法与实践[M].北京:科技出版社, 2000.
[90]田庆久.植被指数研究进展[J].地球科学进展. 1998, 13(4): 327-333.
[91]王根绪,程国栋,沈永平等.土地覆盖变化对高山草甸土壤特性的影响[J].科学通报, 2002, 47(23): 1771-1777.
[92]王绍强,许珺,周成虎.土地覆被变化对陆地碳循环的影响[J].遥感学报, 2001, 5(2): 142-148.
[93]王周龙,冯学智,刘晓枚等.秦淮河丘陵地区土地利用遥感信息提取及制图[J].遥感学报, 2003, 7(2): 131-135.
[94]文英.人类活动强度定量评价强度的初步探讨[J].科学对社会的影响. 1998,4:55-60.
[95]谢高地,成升魁,丁贤忠.人口增长胁迫下的全球土地利用变化研究[J].自然资源学报, 1999,14(3):193-199.
[96]许学工,陈晓玲,郭洪海等.黄河三角洲土地利用与土地覆被的质量变化[J].地理学报, 2001, 56(6): 640-648.
[97]赵庚星.区域土地利用监测系统(RLUMS)的研制与应用—以山东省垦利县为例[D].浙江农业大学博士学位论文, 1997.
[98]赵庚星,田文新,张银辉等.垦利县冬小麦面积的卫星遥感与分布动态监测技术[J].农业工程学报, 2001, 17(4): 135-139.
[99]赵庚星,王人潮,尚建业.黄河三角洲垦利县土地利用的系统动力学仿真模型研究[J].浙江农业大学学报, 1998,24(2):141-147.
[100]赵英石,陈东梅,杨立明等.遥感应用分析原理与方法[M].北京:科学出版社, 2003.
[101]彭建,王仰麟等.滇西北生态脆弱区土地利用变化及其生态效应——以云南省永胜县为例[J].地理学报,2004,59(4):629-638.
[102]东营市国土资源局。东营市国土资源志(征求意见稿)。2003。25-27。
[103]基于RS与GIS的三工河流域生态景观格局分析[J].干旱区研究,2004,21(1):33-37.
[104]冷疏影,刘燕华.中国脆弱生态区可持续发展指标体系框架设计[J].中国人口、资源与环境,1999,9(2):40-44.
[105]刘燕华,李秀彬.脆弱生态环境与可持续发展[M].北京:商务印书馆,2001.6-10.
[106]刘燕华.中国脆弱环境类型划分与指标[M].见:起佳久,刘燕华,赵名茶主编.生态环境综合整治与恢复技术研究(策2集).北京:北京科学技术出版社,1995:8-17.
[107]刘振乾,刘红玉等.三江平原湿地生态脆弱性研究[J].应用生态学报2001,12(2):241-245.
[108]罗新正,朱坦.河北迁西县山区环境脆弱性分区初探[J].山地学报,2002,20(3):348-353 .
[109]牛文元。生态脆弱带ECOTONE的基础判定[J ]。生态学报,1989,8(2):97-104。
[110]史德明,梁音.我国脆弱生态环境的保护与评估[J].水土保持学报,2002,16(1):6-10.
[111]史培军,潘耀忠等.深圳市土地利用/覆盖变化与生态环境安全分析[J].自然资源学报,1999,14(4):293-299.
[112]王经民,汪有科.黄土高原环境脆弱性计算方发探讨[J].水土保持通报,1996,16(3):32-38.
[113]王让会,樊自立.干旱区内陆河流域生态脆弱性评价——以新疆塔里木河流域为例[J].生态学杂志,2001,20(3):63-68.
[114]王玉朝,赵成义.三工河流域景观格局的形成与环境分异特征[J].水土保持学报,2001,15(3):98-101.
[115]温仲明,焦峰等.纸坊沟流域近60年来土地利用景观变化的环境效应[J].生态学报,2004,24(9):1094-1011.
[116]肖笃宁.景观空间结构的指标体系和研究方法.见:肖笃宁,景观生态学理论、方法及其应用.北京,中国林业出版社,1991:92-98.
[117]许学工.黄河三角洲生态环境的评估和预警研究[J].生态学报,1996,16(5):461-468.
[118]许学工,陈晓玲,郭洪海等.黄河三角洲土地利用与土地覆被的质量变化[J].地理学报, 2001, 56(6): 640-648.
[119]杨勤业,张镱锂等.中国的环境脆弱形势和危机区域[J ]。地理研究,1992,11 (4 ):1-9。
[120]于锡军,莫大伦.黄河三角洲环境脆弱带与农业发展研究[J ]。农业环境保护,1998,17(2):90-94.
[121]曾辉,刘国军.基于景观结构的区域生态风险分析[J].中国环境科学,1999,19(5):454-457.
[122]赵庚星,李玉环.遥感和GIS支持的土地利用动态监测研究——以黄河三角洲垦利县为例[J].应用生态学报,2000,11(4):573-576.
[123]赵庚星,林戈.黄河口耕地遥感动态监测及其生态环境安全分析[J].水土保持学报,2004,18(2):37-40.
[124]赵庚星.区域土地利用监测系统(RLUMS)的研制与应用—以山东省垦利县为例[D].浙江农业大学博士学位论文, 1997.
[125]赵跃龙,张玲娟.脆弱生态环境定量评价方法的研究[J].地理科学,1998,18(1):73-78.
[126]朱德明,周鸣歧.太湖生态脆弱性特征及评价指标体系研究[J].生态经济,1998,6:1-5.
[127]李自珍,林红,杨锋,刘新民,黄子琛.沙区人工固沙植物水分生态适宜度模型及其应用研究[J].自然科学进展,1999,(8).
[128]欧阳志云,王如松,符贵南.生态位适宜度模型及其在土地利用适宜性评价中的应用[J].生态学报, 1996,16(2):113-120.
[2] Adger W N.,Kelly P M.Social vulnerability to climate change and the architecture of entitlements[J].Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,1999,4:253~266.
[3] Blaikie,P.M.,Brookfield,H.C..Land Degradation and Society[M].London:Methuen,1987.
[4] Bodin O,Norberg J.Information network topologies for enhanced local adaptive management[J].Environmental Management,2005,35:175~193.
[5] Burton I,Kates R W,White G F.The Environment as Hazard[M].New York:Oxford University Press,1978.
[6] Burton I.,Kates R W.,and White G F. The environment as Hazand[M].Second Edition, New York:The Guilford Press,1993.
[7] Carpenter S R,Brock W A.Spatial complexity,resilience and policy diversity:fishing on lake-rich landscapes.Ecology and Society 9(1),8[J/OL],Waterloo,Canada:Resilience Alliance Publications,2004[2004-3-15] http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol9/iss1/art8/.
[8] Clatter S L. Vulnerability to environmental hazards[J]. Progress in Human Geography, 1996, 20: 529-539
[9] Clatter S L, Boruff B J, Shirley W L. Social vulnerability to environmental hazards[J]. Social Science Quarterly, 2003, 84: 242-261.
[10] Davis F.M., Dozier J., Mutual information analysis of spatial database for ecological landscape classification[J]. Phtogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, 1990, 54.
[11] Dietz T, Ostrom E, Stern P. The struggle to govern the commons[J]. Science, 2003, 302: 1907-1912
[12] Doerfliger N. et al. Water vulnerability assessment in Karst environments a new method of defining protection areas using a multiattribute approach and GIS tools[J].Environmental Geology,1999, 39(2):165-176.
[13] Dow K. Exploring differences in our common future(s): the meaning of vulnerability to global environmental change[J]. Geoforum, 1992, 23: 417-436
[14] Downing T.Vulnerability to hunger in Africa:a climate change perspective[J].Global Environmental Change,1991,1:365~380.
[15] Environmental Protection Agence (EPA), Landscape monitoring and assessment research plan. EPA 620/R-94/009, Office of Research and Development, Washington, D.C., 1994.
[16] Eric F. Lambin, B.L. Turner, Helmut J. Geist, et al. The causes of land-use and land-cover change: moving beyond the myths[J]. Globle Environment Change 2001, (11): 261-269.
[17] Fankhauser S,Smith J B,Tol,R S J.Weathering climate change:some simple rules to guide adaptation decisions[J].Ecological Economics,1999,30:67~78.
[18] FAO. Rome declaration on world food security and world food summit plan of action. Rome: FAO,1996.
[19] Folke C, Hahn T, Olsson P, Norberg J. Adaptive governance of social-ecological systems[J]. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 2005, 30: 441-473.
[20] Gallopin G C,Gutman P,Maletta H.Global impoverishment,sustainable development and the environment.A conceptual approach[J].International Social Science Journal,1989,121:375~397.
[21] Gallopin G C. A systemic synthesis of the relations between vulnerability, hazard, exposure and impact, aimed at policy identification.//Economic Commission for Latin American and the Caribbean. Handbook for Estimating the Socio- Economic and Environmental Effects of Disasters. ECLAC. Mexico: D.F.LGMEX/G.S., 2003,25
[22] Gallopin G C. Linkages between vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity[J].Global Environmental Change, 2006, 16:293-303.
[23] Gogu R C.,Dassargues A. Current trends and future challenges in groundwater vulnerability assessment using overlay and index methods [J].Environment Geology,2000,39(6):549-559.
[24] H.I.EL-GAMILY, S.NASR and M.EL-RAEY. An assessment of natural and human-induced changes along Hurghada and Ras Abu Soma coastal area, Red Sea, Egypt [J]. INT. J. REMOTE SENING, 2001,22(15): 2999-3014.
[25] Hobbs R J.Effects of landscape fragmentation on ecosystem processes in the Western Austrlian wheatbelt [J].Biological Conservation,1993,64(3):193-201.
[26] Holling C S. Resilience and stability of ecological systems[J].Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 1973, 4:1-23.
[27] IPCC. Technical Summary: CLIMATE CHANGE 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Cambridge[M]. Cambridge University Press, 2001.
[28] IPCC. The fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (Summart' for policymakers of the report). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007.
[29] Johson L.B., Analysing spatial and temporal phenomena using Geographical Information Systems[J]. Landscape Ecology, 1990,4(1): 31-43.
[30] J. Slater, R. Brown. Changing landscapes: monitoring Environmentally Sensitive Areas using satellite imagery[J]. INT. J. Remote Sensing, 2000, 21(13): 2753-2767.
[31] Janssen M A,Walker B H,Langridge J,et al.An adaptive agent model for analysing co-evolution of management and policies in a complex rangeland system[J].Ecological Modelling,2000,131:249~268.
[32] Kaly U. Briguglio L, McLeod H, Pratt C, Schmall S. and Pal R. 1999. Report on the Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) Think Tank, 7-10 September 1999, Pacific Harbour, Fiji. SOPAC Technical Report 299.
[33] Kenneth Hewitt. Regions of Risk[M]. Produced by Longman Singapore Publisher(Pte) Ltd. Printed in Singapore,1997.
[34] Lambin E. F, Baulies X, Bockstael N, etal. Land-use and land-cover change[R]. Implementation Strategy. IGBP report No. 48, IHDP report No.10, 1999.
[35] Louisa J. M. Jansen, Antonio Di Gregorio. Parametric land cover and land-use classification as tools for environmental change detection[J]. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 2002(91): 89-100.
[36] Louisa J. M. Jansen, Antonio Di Gregorio. Parametric land cover and land-use classification as tools for environmental change detection[J]. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 2002(91): 89-100.
[37] Lovendal, Christian R. et al.. Understanding Vulnerability to Food insecurity Lessons from Vulnerable Livelihood Profiling [DB/OL]. ESA Working Paper No.04/18. ESA, FAO: 2004.http:www.fao.org//docrep/007/ae2203/ae220e00.html.
[38] Milne B.T., Lessons from applying fractal models to landscape patterns. In: Quantitative Methods in Landscape Ecology[M], New York, 1991.
[39] MOORE BⅢ. International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme: A study of global change, some reflections [Z]. IGBP News Letter, 2000, 40: 1-3.
[40] O’Brien M,Holland T D.The role of adaptation in archeological explanation[J].American Antiquity,1992,57:36~69.
[41] Ojima D S, Kittel T G T, Rosswall T,et al. Critical issues for understanding global change effects on terrestrial ecosystems [J]. EcolAppl,1991,1:316～325.
[42] O’neill R.V., Krummel J.R., Gardner R.H., et al, Indices of Landscape pattern[J]. Landscape Ecology, 1988, 1: 153-162.
[43] Orians G. Diversity, stability and maturity in natural ecosystems Unifying Concepts in Ecology[M]. The Hague: Dr W. Junk Publishers,1975,139-158.
[44] Pantin, D. 1997. Alternative Ecological Vulnerability Indicators for Developing Countries with Special Reference to SIDS. Report Prepared for the Expert Group on Vulnerability Indices, UN-DESA, 17-19 December 1997.
[45] Q. Weng. A remote sensing-GIS evaluation of urban expansion and its impact on surface temperature in the Zhujiang Delta, China[J]. INT. J. Remote Sensing, 2001, 22(10): 1999-2014.
[46] Radeloff, Volker C. Exploring the Spatial Relationship Between Census and Land-cover Data [J]. Society & Natural Resources, 2000, 13(6): 599-611.
[47] Riebsame W E, Meyer W B, Turner II B L. Modeling Land use and cover as part of global environmental change [J]. Climate Change, 1994, (28): 45-64.
[48] Radeloff, Volker C. Exploring the Spatial Relationship Between Census and Land-cover Data [J]. Society & Natural Resources, 2000, 13(6): 599-611.
[49] Rewillard M.M., Welch R.A., GIS technologies for aquctic macrophyte studies: modeling applications[J]. Landscape Ecology, 1993, 8(3): 163-175.
[50] Riebsame W E, Meyer W B, Turner II B L. Modeling Land use and cover as part of global environmental change [J]. Climate Change, 1994, (28): 45-64.
[51] Scientific-Technical Analyses, the Second Assessment Report of IPCC. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995.
[52] Scluiiter D, Polsky C, Patt A G. Assessing vulnerabilities to the effects of global change: An eight step approach[J]. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2005, 10 (4): 573-595.
[53] Sen A K. Resources, Values and Development[M]. Oxford: Blackwell, 1984.
[54] Smit B,Burton I,Klein R,Wandel J.An anatomy of adaptation to climate change and variability[J].Climatic Change,2000,45:223-251.
[55] Smit B J,Wandel.Adaptation,adaptive capacity and vulnerability[J].Global Environmental Change,2006,16:282-292.
[56] Smithers J,Smit B.Human adaptation to climatic variability and change[J].Global Environmental Change,1997,7(2),129~146.
[57] Turner II B. L., Moss R. H, Skole D.L., Relation of land use and global land cover change[R]. IGBP Report No. 24 and HDP Report No.5. Stochkholm, IGBP. 1993.
[58] Turner II B L, Skole D, Sanderson S et al. Land-use and land-cover change science/research plan[R]. IGBP Report No. 35 and HDP Report NO.7. Stochkholm IGBP, 1995.
[59] Turner II B L, Skole D, G. Fisher et al, Land-use and land-cover changes: science/research plan[R]. IGBP Report No. 5. Stochkholm, IGBP. 1995.
[60] Vogel C. Vulnerability and global environmental change[J]. LUCC Newsletter, 1998, 3: 15-19
[61] Vrba J, Zaporozec A. Guide book on mapping groundwater vulnerability. International contributions to hydrogeology[M]. Hannover:GFR,1994.16
[62] Watson R T, Zinyowera M C, Moss R H. eds .The Regional Impacts of Climate Change:An Assessment of Vulnerability Cambridge[M]. Cambridge University Press, 1997.
[63] William E. R, William B M, Turner II B L. Modeling land use and land cover as part of global environmental change[J]. Climatic Change, 1994, 28:45-64.
[64] Westman W E. Measuring the inertia and resilience of ecosysterns[J]. BioScience,1978,28:47-60.
[65] Whittaker R H. Communities and ecosystem[M].New York:Macmillan Publishing Corporation, 1975,169-181.
[66] Wickham J.D. and Ritters K.H., Sensitivity of landscape metrics to pixel size[J]. International Journal of Remote Sensing. 1995, 16: 3585-3594.
[67] Wickham J.D., Norton D.J., Mapping and analysing landscape patterns[J]. Landscape Ecology, 1994, 9(1): 7-23.
[68] William E. R, William B M, Turner II B L. Modeling land use and land cover as part of global environmental change[J]. Climatic Change, 1994, 28:45-64.
[69] Yukio Himiyama. Some thougts on human aspects of LUCC in Japan and China[A]. Proceeding of International Conference on Land Use/Cover Change Dynamics. Beijing: LUCC, 2001, 17-26.
[70]摆万奇,赵士洞.土地利用和土地覆盖变化研究模型综述.自然资源学报, 1997,12(2): 169-175.
[71]摆万奇.深圳市土地利用动态趋势分析[J].自然资源学报. 2000,15(2): 112-116.
[72]蔡运龙.土地利用/土地覆被变化研究:寻求新的综合途径[J].地理研究, 2001,20(6): 645-652.
[73]常军.基于RS和GIS的黄河三角洲海岸线动态变化监测与模拟预测研究[D].山东师范大学硕士学位论文, 2001.
[74]陈百明.试论中国土地利用和土地覆被变化及其人类驱动力研究[J].自然资源, 1997,2 :31-35.
[75]陈葵.鄱阳湖区土地利用遥感快速解译[J].江西农业大学学报, 2001, 23(3): 421-424.
[76]陈四清,刘纪远,庄大方等.基于Landsat TM/ETM数据的锡林河流域土地覆盖变化.地理学报, 2003, 58(1): 45-52.
[77]陈佑启, Peter H. Verburg.基于GIS的中国土地利用变化及其影响模型[J].生态科学, 2000,19(3):1-7.
[78]陈佑启,杨鹏.国际上土地利用/土地覆盖变化研究的新进展[J].经济地理, 2001, 21(1): 95-100.
[79]邓慧平,李秀彬,陈军锋等.流域土地覆被变化水文效应的模拟-以长江上游源头区梭磨河为例[J].地理学报, 2003, 58(1): 53-62.
[80]董玉祥,陈克龙.长江上游地区土地沙漠化现状及其驱动力研究[J].长江流域资源与环境, 2002,11(1):84-88.
[81]冯春,陈建平.土地利用/土地覆盖研究中遥感图像分类精度的提高方法[J].地理与地理信息科学. 2003 19(3): 26-28.
[82]符淙斌.全球变化科学的发展[J].科学, 2001, 52(6): 3-5
[83]符淙斌,温刚,周嗣松等.我国大陆植被变化的气象卫星遥感[J].科学通报, 1992, 37(16): 1486-1488.
[84]江源,刘硕.城市土地利用下的植物物种资源特征分析[J].自然资源学报, 1999, 14(4): 359-362.
[85]李秀彬.全球环境变化研究的核心领域—土地利用/覆盖变化的国际研究动向[J].地理学报,1996,51(6):553-557.
[86]李秀彬.中国近20年来耕地面积的变化及其政策启示[J].自然资源学报,1999,14(4): 329-333.
[87]龙花楼,李秀彬.长江沿线样带土地利用格局及其影响因子分析[J].地理学报, 2001,56(4):417-425.
[88]史培军,陈晋,潘耀忠.深圳市土地利用变化机制分析[J].地理学报, 2000, 55(2): 151~160.
[89]史培军,宫鹏,李晓兵等.土地利用/覆盖变化研究的方法与实践[M].北京:科技出版社, 2000.
[90]田庆久.植被指数研究进展[J].地球科学进展. 1998, 13(4): 327-333.
[91]王根绪,程国栋,沈永平等.土地覆盖变化对高山草甸土壤特性的影响[J].科学通报, 2002, 47(23): 1771-1777.
[92]王绍强,许珺,周成虎.土地覆被变化对陆地碳循环的影响[J].遥感学报, 2001, 5(2): 142-148.
[93]王周龙,冯学智,刘晓枚等.秦淮河丘陵地区土地利用遥感信息提取及制图[J].遥感学报, 2003, 7(2): 131-135.
[94]文英.人类活动强度定量评价强度的初步探讨[J].科学对社会的影响. 1998,4:55-60.
[95]谢高地,成升魁,丁贤忠.人口增长胁迫下的全球土地利用变化研究[J].自然资源学报, 1999,14(3):193-199.
[96]许学工,陈晓玲,郭洪海等.黄河三角洲土地利用与土地覆被的质量变化[J].地理学报, 2001, 56(6): 640-648.
[97]赵庚星.区域土地利用监测系统(RLUMS)的研制与应用—以山东省垦利县为例[D].浙江农业大学博士学位论文, 1997.
[98]赵庚星,田文新,张银辉等.垦利县冬小麦面积的卫星遥感与分布动态监测技术[J].农业工程学报, 2001, 17(4): 135-139.
[99]赵庚星,王人潮,尚建业.黄河三角洲垦利县土地利用的系统动力学仿真模型研究[J].浙江农业大学学报, 1998,24(2):141-147.
[100]赵英石,陈东梅,杨立明等.遥感应用分析原理与方法[M].北京:科学出版社, 2003.
[101]彭建,王仰麟等.滇西北生态脆弱区土地利用变化及其生态效应——以云南省永胜县为例[J].地理学报,2004,59(4):629-638.
[102]东营市国土资源局。东营市国土资源志(征求意见稿)。2003。25-27。
[103]基于RS与GIS的三工河流域生态景观格局分析[J].干旱区研究,2004,21(1):33-37.
[104]冷疏影,刘燕华.中国脆弱生态区可持续发展指标体系框架设计[J].中国人口、资源与环境,1999,9(2):40-44.
[105]刘燕华,李秀彬.脆弱生态环境与可持续发展[M].北京:商务印书馆,2001.6-10.
[106]刘燕华.中国脆弱环境类型划分与指标[M].见:起佳久,刘燕华,赵名茶主编.生态环境综合整治与恢复技术研究(策2集).北京:北京科学技术出版社,1995:8-17.
[107]刘振乾,刘红玉等.三江平原湿地生态脆弱性研究[J].应用生态学报2001,12(2):241-245.
[108]罗新正,朱坦.河北迁西县山区环境脆弱性分区初探[J].山地学报,2002,20(3):348-353 .
[109]牛文元。生态脆弱带ECOTONE的基础判定[J ]。生态学报,1989,8(2):97-104。
[110]史德明,梁音.我国脆弱生态环境的保护与评估[J].水土保持学报,2002,16(1):6-10.
[111]史培军,潘耀忠等.深圳市土地利用/覆盖变化与生态环境安全分析[J].自然资源学报,1999,14(4):293-299.
[112]王经民,汪有科.黄土高原环境脆弱性计算方发探讨[J].水土保持通报,1996,16(3):32-38.
[113]王让会,樊自立.干旱区内陆河流域生态脆弱性评价——以新疆塔里木河流域为例[J].生态学杂志,2001,20(3):63-68.
[114]王玉朝,赵成义.三工河流域景观格局的形成与环境分异特征[J].水土保持学报,2001,15(3):98-101.
[115]温仲明,焦峰等.纸坊沟流域近60年来土地利用景观变化的环境效应[J].生态学报,2004,24(9):1094-1011.
[116]肖笃宁.景观空间结构的指标体系和研究方法.见:肖笃宁,景观生态学理论、方法及其应用.北京,中国林业出版社,1991:92-98.
[117]许学工.黄河三角洲生态环境的评估和预警研究[J].生态学报,1996,16(5):461-468.
[118]许学工,陈晓玲,郭洪海等.黄河三角洲土地利用与土地覆被的质量变化[J].地理学报, 2001, 56(6): 640-648.
[119]杨勤业,张镱锂等.中国的环境脆弱形势和危机区域[J ]。地理研究,1992,11 (4 ):1-9。
[120]于锡军,莫大伦.黄河三角洲环境脆弱带与农业发展研究[J ]。农业环境保护,1998,17(2):90-94.
[121]曾辉,刘国军.基于景观结构的区域生态风险分析[J].中国环境科学,1999,19(5):454-457.
[122]赵庚星,李玉环.遥感和GIS支持的土地利用动态监测研究——以黄河三角洲垦利县为例[J].应用生态学报,2000,11(4):573-576.
[123]赵庚星,林戈.黄河口耕地遥感动态监测及其生态环境安全分析[J].水土保持学报,2004,18(2):37-40.
[124]赵庚星.区域土地利用监测系统(RLUMS)的研制与应用—以山东省垦利县为例[D].浙江农业大学博士学位论文, 1997.
[125]赵跃龙,张玲娟.脆弱生态环境定量评价方法的研究[J].地理科学,1998,18(1):73-78.
[126]朱德明,周鸣歧.太湖生态脆弱性特征及评价指标体系研究[J].生态经济,1998,6:1-5.
[127]李自珍,林红,杨锋,刘新民,黄子琛.沙区人工固沙植物水分生态适宜度模型及其应用研究[J].自然科学进展,1999,(8).
[128]欧阳志云,王如松,符贵南.生态位适宜度模型及其在土地利用适宜性评价中的应用[J].生态学报, 1996,16(2):113-120.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |