大型地下洞室群施工进度实时控制研究
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摘要
水利水电工程地下洞室群施工极为复杂,影响施工进度的不确定因素众多,即使制定一个合理的进度计划也难以很好地起到指导实际施工的作用。为此,本文旨在从解决施工进度控制中的关键问题出发,研究提出实用而有效的地下洞室群施工进度控制方法与实现手段。将网络计划技术、系统仿真技术、控制论思想以及现代项目管理理论与方法引入水电工程施工管理领域,开展了大型地下洞室群施工进度实时控制研究,主要工作与研究成果如下:
1.针对地下洞室群施工进度控制的特点,在综合了横道图、网络图、进度状态向量、进度前锋线等各种进度表达与比较方法的基础上加以改进,研究了基于PSD模型的施工进度表达与比较分析方法,可以将工程进度计划、进度状态、进度偏差简单而形象地表示出来,并依此进行施工进度的偏差比较分析。
2.提出了基于实时仿真的地下洞室群施工方案评价与进度预测方法,能够客观地反映地下洞室群实际施工工艺、资源配置等施工条件的动态变化。通过施工过程的实时仿真,不仅可以根据当前施工现状,在施工任意时刻分析预测施工工序持续时间与工程后期施工进度,而且可以对不同进度调整措施下施工方案的有效性进行评价,为选择合理的控制措施提供依据。
3.提出了地下洞室群施工进度的偏差影响分析方法和动态调整与控制方法,并依据进度控制基本原理,建立了地下洞室群施工实际可行的进度控制流程。通过研究施工进度的监测预警模型、进度动态调整规则与具体实现手段,详细分析了在偏差出现后,应该针对哪些工作以及采取怎样的措施进行调整,为如何进行施工进度的实时控制提供了实用性的指导。
4.深入研究了地下洞室群施工进度的不确定性问题,采用柔性网络仿真方法进行施工进度计划按期实现的概率与风险分析,并引入多个“关键指标”综合分析了关键线路的分布情况以及各个工序的关键程度。从而,使施工管理人员可以预先把握工期的变化范围和关键线路的可能变化趋势,为进度控制与决策提供更多的信息。
5.研制开发了地下洞室群施工进度实时控制系统(CSC),深入研究了系统的总体设计、模块划分及功能实现,并成功应用于惠州抽水蓄能电站地下洞室群施工中。实际工程应用表明该系统可以有效地实现地下洞室群施工进度的实时控制,为施工管理人员提供了一个强有力的辅助分析工具。
The construction process of large scale underground structure group in hydraulic and hydroelectric engineering is very complicated, which is influenced by many uncertain factors, so that even an optimal schedule plan can not find its way well into the practical construction. In order to solve the key problems in construction scheduling control, the practical and effective methods for construction scheduling control of underground structure group is presented. The paper studies a real-time control methodology for construction scheduling of large scale underground structure group, in which many theories including network plan, system simulation, engineering cybernetics and modern project management, are introduced into the construction management field of hydraulic and hydroelectric engineering. The main contents and achievements are as follows:
1. According to the characteristics of scheduling control in underground structure group construction, the method for schedule representation and comparison based on PSD model is studied by synthesizing and improving many traditional methods such as Gantt chart, network chart, schedule state vectors and progress secant, which can show schedule plan, schedule state and schedule deviation visually.
2. A method for plan evaluation and scheduling forecast in underground structure group construction based on real-time simulation is presented, which can objectively reflect dynamical change of construction operation procedure, resource allocation and so on. By real-time simulating the construction process according to current conditions, not only the work duration or scheduling deviation can be forecasted and analyzed, but also the effectiveness of different scheduling adjustment measures can be evaluated. The method provides decision-making basis for choosing rational scheduling control measures.
3. The methods for deviation effect analysis and dynamic schedule adjusting are presented, and the practical scheduling control procedure of underground structure group construction is brought out based on theory of cybernetics. With research on scheduling monitoring model, scheduling adjustment rule and practical implementation, the activities which need to be adjusted are pointed out and how to take measures response to scheduling deviation is analized, so more practical instruction for scheduling real-time control is provided.
4. The scheduling uncertainties of underground structure group construction are studied thoroughly and the methods for calculating completion probability or scheduling risk with flexible network simulation are proposed. Besides, several key indexes are introduced to analyze the distribution of critical paths and critical degree of each activity. So, the variation range of construction time limit and probable change trend of critical path can be grasped and more information for construction scheduling control is provided.
5. The software system (CSC) for scheduling real-time control of underground structure group construction is developed and applied to Huizhou pumped storage station. The software design, module structure and system function realization is deeply studied. The practical application shows that the system provides a powerful assistant analysis instrument for construction management, with which the scheduling real-time control can be achieved effectively.
1.针对地下洞室群施工进度控制的特点,在综合了横道图、网络图、进度状态向量、进度前锋线等各种进度表达与比较方法的基础上加以改进,研究了基于PSD模型的施工进度表达与比较分析方法,可以将工程进度计划、进度状态、进度偏差简单而形象地表示出来,并依此进行施工进度的偏差比较分析。
2.提出了基于实时仿真的地下洞室群施工方案评价与进度预测方法,能够客观地反映地下洞室群实际施工工艺、资源配置等施工条件的动态变化。通过施工过程的实时仿真,不仅可以根据当前施工现状,在施工任意时刻分析预测施工工序持续时间与工程后期施工进度,而且可以对不同进度调整措施下施工方案的有效性进行评价,为选择合理的控制措施提供依据。
3.提出了地下洞室群施工进度的偏差影响分析方法和动态调整与控制方法,并依据进度控制基本原理,建立了地下洞室群施工实际可行的进度控制流程。通过研究施工进度的监测预警模型、进度动态调整规则与具体实现手段,详细分析了在偏差出现后,应该针对哪些工作以及采取怎样的措施进行调整,为如何进行施工进度的实时控制提供了实用性的指导。
4.深入研究了地下洞室群施工进度的不确定性问题,采用柔性网络仿真方法进行施工进度计划按期实现的概率与风险分析,并引入多个“关键指标”综合分析了关键线路的分布情况以及各个工序的关键程度。从而,使施工管理人员可以预先把握工期的变化范围和关键线路的可能变化趋势,为进度控制与决策提供更多的信息。
5.研制开发了地下洞室群施工进度实时控制系统(CSC),深入研究了系统的总体设计、模块划分及功能实现,并成功应用于惠州抽水蓄能电站地下洞室群施工中。实际工程应用表明该系统可以有效地实现地下洞室群施工进度的实时控制,为施工管理人员提供了一个强有力的辅助分析工具。
The construction process of large scale underground structure group in hydraulic and hydroelectric engineering is very complicated, which is influenced by many uncertain factors, so that even an optimal schedule plan can not find its way well into the practical construction. In order to solve the key problems in construction scheduling control, the practical and effective methods for construction scheduling control of underground structure group is presented. The paper studies a real-time control methodology for construction scheduling of large scale underground structure group, in which many theories including network plan, system simulation, engineering cybernetics and modern project management, are introduced into the construction management field of hydraulic and hydroelectric engineering. The main contents and achievements are as follows:
1. According to the characteristics of scheduling control in underground structure group construction, the method for schedule representation and comparison based on PSD model is studied by synthesizing and improving many traditional methods such as Gantt chart, network chart, schedule state vectors and progress secant, which can show schedule plan, schedule state and schedule deviation visually.
2. A method for plan evaluation and scheduling forecast in underground structure group construction based on real-time simulation is presented, which can objectively reflect dynamical change of construction operation procedure, resource allocation and so on. By real-time simulating the construction process according to current conditions, not only the work duration or scheduling deviation can be forecasted and analyzed, but also the effectiveness of different scheduling adjustment measures can be evaluated. The method provides decision-making basis for choosing rational scheduling control measures.
3. The methods for deviation effect analysis and dynamic schedule adjusting are presented, and the practical scheduling control procedure of underground structure group construction is brought out based on theory of cybernetics. With research on scheduling monitoring model, scheduling adjustment rule and practical implementation, the activities which need to be adjusted are pointed out and how to take measures response to scheduling deviation is analized, so more practical instruction for scheduling real-time control is provided.
4. The scheduling uncertainties of underground structure group construction are studied thoroughly and the methods for calculating completion probability or scheduling risk with flexible network simulation are proposed. Besides, several key indexes are introduced to analyze the distribution of critical paths and critical degree of each activity. So, the variation range of construction time limit and probable change trend of critical path can be grasped and more information for construction scheduling control is provided.
5. The software system (CSC) for scheduling real-time control of underground structure group construction is developed and applied to Huizhou pumped storage station. The software design, module structure and system function realization is deeply studied. The practical application shows that the system provides a powerful assistant analysis instrument for construction management, with which the scheduling real-time control can be achieved effectively.
引文
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