21世纪以来欧亚冷冬频发与冬季AO、极涡的联系及其机理
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摘要
21世纪初叶尤其是2008年以来,全球变暖响应最显著的欧亚大陆冷冬频发,与自1980s以来的变暖大背景形成鲜明对比,已引起国内外学者的格外关注。本文利用1948-2012年NCEP/NCAR全球再分析月平均地表温度、高度场、风场等资料、NOAA的全球再分析海温场和AO指数资料,针对欧亚大陆中高纬度地区冬季低温异常,从年际和年代际尺度变化角度分析,该区可划分全球变暖前、后的冬季温度异常两个阶段(1980年)。分别选取1960s-1970s和21世纪初这两个处于不同阶段的冬季低温频发期,对比分析其区域低温异常以及大尺度环流特征。着重研究北极涛动(AO)和北半球极涡这两个对北半球冬季异常影响最重要的大气环流基本模态的时空年际和年代际变化规律,揭示北半球极涡及分区与AO间对北半球气候变异解释的异同点及互补性,尤其是与21世纪以来欧亚大陆中高纬度地区冬季温度异常的联系；进一步探讨该区自2008年以来冬季低温频发的成因和机制。主要结论如下：
(1)21世纪尤其是2008年以来,欧亚大陆冬季低温频发,占全球变暖以来,该区域冷冬年的2/3,表现为低温阶段,其温度异常特征与1970s中期以前既有相似之处又有所差异。相似之处在于,冷冬的环流形势均表现为：中高纬度由低层至对流层中上层为相对深厚的垂直结构,呈显著的北半球环状模结构(AO),乌拉尔山偏北风异常偏强,分别向东、西方向传播,强冷空气主要活动在欧洲北部、亚洲大陆北部地区是两个阶段冷冬异常形成的共同主要环流背景；不同之处表现为全球变暖前的冷冬的中低纬度高度场一致偏低,极区强冷空气由对流层中低层向南输送至中高纬度地区,E-P通量辐合来源于低纬和极区。21世纪以来的冷冬的高度场却呈现中低纬度低层负距平与对流层中层以上为正距平的反位相分布形势,北风向南传播较弱,中低纬度平流层低温异常倾斜至欧亚大陆北部,E-P通量也仅来源于低纬对流层顶向北、向下传播。综合分析表明：两个不同阶段冷冬对应的北半球中、高纬度异常存在南北向的偏差,且异常程度不同。这也正是21世纪以来的冷冬异常低温区仅位于欧业中高纬度地区,而全球变暖前冷冬异常低温区覆盖中低纬—中高纬—北极区,两种冬季低温分布不同的主要表现所在。这种欧亚大陆冬季低温范围行星尺度差异不是区域性环流可以解释的,因此,研究北半球最主要的大气环流模态AO和极涡及分区的水平和垂直结构变化特征及其与21世纪欧亚大陆近几年冷冬异常的联系显得尤为必要。
(2)冬季AO和北半球极涡的时空分布特征与演变规律。在空间变化方面：冬季AO空间垂直分布表现为由海平面至平流层深厚的准正压性结构,其正位相时气压场/高度场呈极区负距平,与中高纬度地区正距平异常分布的遥相关结构显著区位于对流层。AO典型正位相时,以北太平洋比北大西洋区域气压场偏低为主,而负位相则以北大西洋气压场偏高为主,具有显著的偏态分布特征；北半球200hPa与500hPa的极涡指数存在非常显著的自相关,表明北半球对流中、上层极涡活动呈正压状态。另外,北半球对流层以极涡为核心与中高纬度地区呈反位相涛动的正压结构,随高度的变化到平流层收缩为仅有的极涡活动模态。时间演变规律表现为：AO模态具有显著的年代际周期变化,SLP层比500hPa的AO遥相关型变化大,1970s振幅最大,2000s进入新的周期变化；北半球及其4个分区的极涡也具有显著的年际和多年代际尺度的变化规律,呈6-7波分布,在2000's后期也进入新的长周期阶段。
(3)AO与北半球极涡及分区与海—气系统异常联系的主要模态存有异同点,并且具有较好的互补性。AO位相表现北半球极区与中高纬度环流异常反位相且呈环状分布,北半球极涡环流不仅具有环状分布,分区极涡还能更好的表征北太平洋地区半永久大气活动中心和侧重反映欧亚大陆环流异常的偏态分布特征；极涡太平洋面积指数与北太平洋的西风漂流区、赤道中东太平洋(ENSO模态区)海温关系密切,AO则与北大西洋漂流区SST异常密切。对AO位相异常进行分级,分析发现当AO正异常时对应PDO冷位相(La Nina型),反之为典型El Nino分布,而极端异常时赤道中东太平洋区的海温异常与之相反,显著性较弱；冬季极涡面积、强度随冬季ENSO事件和PDO位相的不同而呈现出显著的差异性,其中La Nina和PDO位相异常与AO、极涡异常同期关联显著。数值模拟亦表明,北太平洋冬季ENSO事件和PDO位相异常与同期AO、极涡异常分布联系显著。AO与极涡面积异常变化相反,而与强度变化正相关,关键区主要位于北美、大西洋欧洲区域。具体表现为北半球极涡面积偏大时,极区相对偏暖,而冷空气集中于中高纬度陆地,呈显著的AO负位相分布,反之,冷空气则主要龟缩于极区,对中高纬度冬季气候冷异常的影响很小。
(4)AO与北半球极涡同样对欧亚大陆冬、夏季气候的影响具有互补性。北半球极涡及其分区指数、AO指数分别与极区、欧亚大陆中高纬度地区和中国区域的冬季气温相关呈现反位相分布。其中AO与极区、中东地区北部、北非大陆和北大西洋气温关系密切,而北半球极涡面积指数则与北太平洋西风漂流区和赤道中东太平洋气温相关更加显著。当北半球极涡面积大时,欧亚大陆中、高纬度至北美洲中东部气温偏低,非洲北部和格陵兰岛气温偏高,AO异常则相反。北美区和大西洋欧洲区的极涡面积指数对中、高纬度极区气温影响具有相似性,但对区域气温的异常影响范围、强度等略有差异；亚洲区极涡面积指数不仅对亚洲中高纬度,还对中国东部及沿海区域,以及巴基斯坦等南亚和西北印度洋地区气温异常作用显著,恰恰能够表征亚洲大陆西面和东面两支主要冷空气向低纬度暴发的某些特征；总体而言,极涡与AO对北半球气温的影响具有共同的热力性质。但极涡及其分区活动,能更好地体现其与各大洲气温显著相关的地域特征。亚洲区极涡活动与AO指数对北半球冬季气温场影响相比,能更好地体现其与各大洲气温显著相关的地域特征,其主要机制是冬季北半球极涡及分区面积能清晰反映出北半球冷空气活动偏态活动特征,尤其能很好描述亚洲冬季风不仅体现在东亚,另一支侧重在中亚地区。此外,冬季AO、极涡对中国地区同期和次年夏季的温度、降水具有较好相关性,表明AO和极涡也是中国冬季温度和次年夏季温度和降水变化的主要因子,但上述关系亦呈现出显著的区域性差异。北半球极涡及分区面积波动显著；北半球极涡及分区面积不仅在冬季活动具有显著特点,春季北太平洋极涡面积强与弱的差值还强迫出NPO的正位相,并且成为影响夏季东北地区低温的重要前期信号,NPO的正(负)位相,有利于在北太平洋区域上空形成定常的超长波槽(脊),在非绝热加热后退慢波的作用下,分别对东北亚的冷涡(阻塞高压)异常活动提供低(高)值扰动源。
(5)AO与北半球极涡的异常变化与2008年以来欧亚大陆地区出现的冬季低温以及与东北夏季低温的诊断分析。多个例综合分析发现,2008年1-2月中国大范围、持续性的低温、雨雪、冰冻灾害与AO负位相分布有关；自2009年以来连续3年的北半球尤其是欧亚大陆中高纬度冬季低温事件频发,不仅由冬季AO负位相所致(2011年冬季AO为正位相除外),还与北半球极涡面积特别是亚洲区极涡面积偏大联系密切；2009年夏季东北气温偏低,冷涡活动异常偏多,不仅与其前冬1-2月AO正位相分布显著相关,还与北太平洋极涡面积偏小,也就是NPO的负位相联系密切。综合分析表明：2008年以来欧亚大陆地区出现的冷事件主要受AO、极涡异常变化的影响所致,AO和极涡是21世纪以来欧亚大陆中高纬度地区冬季频发的直接且最主要的影响因子,与太平洋极涡面积联系密切的NPO异常位相不仅是东北夏季气温变化的重要前期信号,还是大气中除了天气尺度混沌分量外可提取的行星尺度稳定分量。
(6)极涡及分区与AO同北半球海-气系统主要模态间的联系,特别是对21世纪初叶欧业大陆中高纬度地区冷冬开始频发的物理机制解释,具有互补性。北半球极涡及分4个区活动(亚洲、北太平洋、北美和大西洋欧洲区),是否具有客观性,正是本论文所要着重研究“互补性”的科学问题。
In the early21st century, especially since2008, cold winter has occurred frequently in Eurasia, the most significant place responsing to global warming. Contrast with the warming background since1980s, it has attracted special attention of scholars both at home and abroad. In this paper, using reanalysis data provided by NCEP/NCAR including monthly mean global surface temperature, height and wind, global SST reanalysis data provided by NOAA, and AO index data, aiming at the low temperature anomalies region in mid-high latitude in Eurasia, it could be divided into two winter temperature anomaly stages, before and after global warming (1980). We selected two different period of frequent winter low temperature, thus1960s-1970s and early21th century, and carried on a research on contrasting and analyzing their low temperature anomaly regions and the characteristics of large scale atmospheric circulation. We focused on the temporal variation rule and the characteristic of spatial distribution in detail of two important circulation systems for northern hemisphere winter, arctic oscillation (AO) and polar vortex. On this basis, we revealed the homogeny and complementarity of the effect on northern hemisphere climate anomaly of the arctic oscillation and the whole or different part of the polar vortex, especial the relationship between the both systems and the winter temperature anomaly in mid-high latitude of Eurasia. At last, we also conducted a further analysis on the cause and mechanism of frequent low temperature in winter since2008. We concluded that:
1) In21th century especial since2008, low winter temperature in Eurasia ocurried frequently.
The winters with low temperature has accounted for about2/3of the total winters since global warming, and it stays in a stage of low temperature, showing some similarities and differences of characteristic with that before1970s. The atmospheric circulations of the above two stages are similar. It is a relatively deep vertical structure from the lower to the upper troposphere in mid-hight latitude, and showing a significant annular structure in the northern hemisphere (AO). Northerly winds in Ural Mountains are strong and blowing towards east and west direction respectively. It is active of cold air in northern Eurasia.
Before global warming, the height fields in mid-low latitudes of cold winters were consistently low, strong clod air in Polar Regions transfered southward to mid-high latitudes in mid-low troposphere, and E-P flux converged from low latitude and Polar Regions. However, since21th century, the height fields of cold winter represent an opposite phase distribution, thus, it is negative anomaly in lower troposphere, and it is positive anomaly in upper troposphere in mid-low latitudes. It is weak of northerly wind to blow southward, low temperature anomaly of stratosphere in mid-low latitude leans to northern Eurasia, and E-P flux only converged from tropopause in low latitude. Comprehensive analysis shows that it has a south-north difference between the two stages, which leading to the difference of the low temperature distribution in winter. Since21th century, low temperature anomaly area is only located in mid-high latitudes in Eurasia. However, before global warming, it covered the extensive regions from mid-low latitudes to northern Polar Regions. Such a planetary scale difference of low temperature in Eurasia could not be explained by regional circulation. So, it is necessary to conduct a research on horizontal and vertical structure characteristics of the arctic oscillation and the whole or different part of the polar vortex, and the relationship between the above with clod winter in Eurasia since21th century.
2) Temporal variation rule and space distribution characteristics of AO and polar in winter.
For AO, its vertical distribution presents a deep quasi-barotropic structure from sea surface to stratosphere. When it stays in a positive phase, height anomaly is negative in Polar Regions, and it is positive in mid and high latitudes. The significant region of teleconnection distribution is located in troposphere. While in latitudinal direction, it shows a markedly skewed distribution. When AO stays in a positive phase, the main characteristic is that the atmospheric pressure in North Pacific is lower than that in North Atlantic. When in a negative phase, it presents that the atmospheric pressure in North Atlantic is higher. For polar vortex in northern hemisphere, it is significant autocorrelation for polar vortex indexes both in200hPa and500hPa, which indicate that the polar vortex in the northern hemisphere was positive pressure state in middle and upper troposphere. Besides, in troposphere of Northern hemisphere the major positive pressure mode presents a negative oscillation between polar vortex and mid-high latitudes. And along with the height changes into stratosphere, it only presents an active polar vortex mode.
In temporal variation rules, AO has significant decadal cycle. Especially in SLP and500hPa, the amplitude reached a peak in1970's. And after2000's, it changed into a new cycle. It also appears significant cycles in interannual scale and multi-interdecadal scales in the northern hemisphere and its four polar vortexes located in different regions, which showing a6-7waves distribution. And it also changed into a new long cycle stage in late2000s.
3) It has some similarities and differences of anomalous relationship between sea-air system and AO or polar vortex (including its different partitions) in northern hemisphere. They also are complementary for each other.
It is the annular distribution for the AO negative phase, showing the opposite anomaly between Polar Regions and mid-high latitudes in northern hemisphere. While, for polar vortex circulation, it is not only showing a annular distribution, but also charactering semipermanent atmospheric activity center in north Pacific better, and reflecting the skewness distribution characteristics of circulation anomalies in Eurasia. Sea surface temperature (SST) of west wind drift area in north Pacific and middle-east equator Pacific Ocean (ENSO) both have a relationship with the Pacific area index of polar vortex. While AO is related to SST in the north Atlantic drift area. After classifying anomalous phases of AO, we could find that positive AO anomaly corresponds with negative phase of PDO (La Nina), and negative AO anomaly corresponds with typical El Nino distribution. When AO stays in an extreme anomaly state, the corresponding relationship is opposite with the above. Both the effected area and strength of polar vortex in winter appear obvious distinction as the phases of ENSO or PDO change. It is significantly synchronous related for the phase anomalys of La Nina and PDO to AO and polar vortex, which has been proved by numerical simulation. Besides, AO is negatively/positively related to area/strength of polar vortex, and the significantly related regions are mainly located in North America and Atlantic nearby Europe. When the area of polar vortex in northern hemisphere is larger, it is relatively warmer in the polar region. At the same time, cold air concentrates at high latitudes in the land, embodying significantly AO negative phase distribution. On the other hand, the cold air is mainly to huddle in the polar region, has less effect on the high-latitude climate anomaly.
4) It also has some conplementary for AO and polar vortex to the effect on both summer and winter climate in Eurasia.
Polar vortex in the northern hemisphere, its different partition indexes, and AO index are negatively related to the winter temperature in polar area, high latitudes of Eurasia and China respectively. Among them, the temperatures of regions which are more significantly related to AO are located in polar area, the north Middle East, North Africa, and the north Atlantic. While polar vortex area index in the northern hemisphere is more significantly related to temperatures in the north Pacific west wind drift region and the Middle-East equator Pacific. When polar vortex area in the northern hemisphere is larger, it is colder from high latitudes of Eurasia to middle-east North America, and warmer in northern Africa and Greenland. However, the corresponding relationship is opposite for AO anomaly. Temperatures of middle and high latitudes in polar area are similar influenced by polar vortex area indexes in North America and the Atlantic nearby Europe. But the impact on anomaly scope, intensity of regional temperature is slightly different. Polar vortex area index in Asia is significantly related to temperatures not only in middle and high latitudes in Asia, but also in Eastern China and coastal areas and parts of South Asia like Pakistan and northwest Indian Ocean, which could precisely depict some characteristics that two main cold air burst out into low latitudes from the west and the east Asian continent. Overall, AO and polar vortex have similar thermal property to temperature of the northern hemisphere. While compared with the effect on the temperature field in the northern hemisphere winter, polar vortex in the northern hemisphere and its partition activity can better reflect regional characteristic on significantly related relationship between itself and temperature of each continent. The major mechanism, for polar vortex in Asia is that the area of the polar vortex could clearly reflect the activity characteristics of cold air, especially could depict the East Asian winter monsoon which is not only in East Asia, but also in Central Asia. Besides, AO and polar vortex area in winter are both well related to temperatures and precipitation in China during the same period and summer next year, showing that AO and polar vortex are the main factors leading to the temperature and precipitation changes in winter and next summer even though with great regional distinction. It fluctuates significantly of the areas of polar vortex and its partitions in the northern hemisphere, which has marked characteristics in winter. And the difference between the strong and weak earas of partition in north Pacific could also enforce the positive phase of NPO, which is an important early signal for low temperature of northeast China. The positive/negative phase of NPO conducives to the formation of constant super long wave trough/ridge, which will provide low/high value disturbance source for anomalous activities of cold vortex/blocking high in Northeast Asia under the function of non adiabatic heating by backward and slow wave.
5) the diagnosis analysis of the effect of AO and polar vortex in northern hemisphere anomaly changes on winter low temperature in Eurasia and summer low temperature in northeast China since2008.
After comprehensive analysis on individual cases, we could find that wide range and continuous low temperature, sleet and freezing disasters occurred in China from January to February2008are associated with AO positive phase distribution. Frequent low temperature events in winter in the northern hemisphere, especially the high latitude in Eurasia since2009, not only caused by the interseasonal AO negative phase (with the exception of the2011winter), and also are associated with the larger polar vortex area especially parts in Asia. Both low summer temperatures in northeast China and frequent cold vortex activity in2009are not only significantly related to AO positive phase in previous winter (January to February), but also have relationship with small polar vortex area in north Pacific (the negative phase of NPO). Comprehensive analysis shows that cold events occurried in Eurasia since2008are mainly affected by the anonamly changes of AO and polar vortex. AO and polar vortex are directly and main influence factors for frequent cold winter in mid-high latitudes of Eurasia since21th century. The anomaly phase of NPO which has relationship with polar vortex areas in Pacific is not only the important early signals for summer temperature anomaly in northeast China, but also the steady component in planetary scale which could be extracted in addition to chaotic components in synoptic-scale.
6) It is complementary each other between AO and polar vortex (including its partitions) for the relationship with the major models of sea-air system, and especial for the mechanism of cold winter occurried in mid-high latitudes of Eurasia in early21th century. What we focus on in this paper is whether polar vortex and its four partitions in the northern hemisphere (in Asia, north Pacific, north America and Atlantic near Europe) have objectivity.
(1)21世纪尤其是2008年以来,欧亚大陆冬季低温频发,占全球变暖以来,该区域冷冬年的2/3,表现为低温阶段,其温度异常特征与1970s中期以前既有相似之处又有所差异。相似之处在于,冷冬的环流形势均表现为：中高纬度由低层至对流层中上层为相对深厚的垂直结构,呈显著的北半球环状模结构(AO),乌拉尔山偏北风异常偏强,分别向东、西方向传播,强冷空气主要活动在欧洲北部、亚洲大陆北部地区是两个阶段冷冬异常形成的共同主要环流背景；不同之处表现为全球变暖前的冷冬的中低纬度高度场一致偏低,极区强冷空气由对流层中低层向南输送至中高纬度地区,E-P通量辐合来源于低纬和极区。21世纪以来的冷冬的高度场却呈现中低纬度低层负距平与对流层中层以上为正距平的反位相分布形势,北风向南传播较弱,中低纬度平流层低温异常倾斜至欧亚大陆北部,E-P通量也仅来源于低纬对流层顶向北、向下传播。综合分析表明：两个不同阶段冷冬对应的北半球中、高纬度异常存在南北向的偏差,且异常程度不同。这也正是21世纪以来的冷冬异常低温区仅位于欧业中高纬度地区,而全球变暖前冷冬异常低温区覆盖中低纬—中高纬—北极区,两种冬季低温分布不同的主要表现所在。这种欧亚大陆冬季低温范围行星尺度差异不是区域性环流可以解释的,因此,研究北半球最主要的大气环流模态AO和极涡及分区的水平和垂直结构变化特征及其与21世纪欧亚大陆近几年冷冬异常的联系显得尤为必要。
(2)冬季AO和北半球极涡的时空分布特征与演变规律。在空间变化方面：冬季AO空间垂直分布表现为由海平面至平流层深厚的准正压性结构,其正位相时气压场/高度场呈极区负距平,与中高纬度地区正距平异常分布的遥相关结构显著区位于对流层。AO典型正位相时,以北太平洋比北大西洋区域气压场偏低为主,而负位相则以北大西洋气压场偏高为主,具有显著的偏态分布特征；北半球200hPa与500hPa的极涡指数存在非常显著的自相关,表明北半球对流中、上层极涡活动呈正压状态。另外,北半球对流层以极涡为核心与中高纬度地区呈反位相涛动的正压结构,随高度的变化到平流层收缩为仅有的极涡活动模态。时间演变规律表现为：AO模态具有显著的年代际周期变化,SLP层比500hPa的AO遥相关型变化大,1970s振幅最大,2000s进入新的周期变化；北半球及其4个分区的极涡也具有显著的年际和多年代际尺度的变化规律,呈6-7波分布,在2000's后期也进入新的长周期阶段。
(3)AO与北半球极涡及分区与海—气系统异常联系的主要模态存有异同点,并且具有较好的互补性。AO位相表现北半球极区与中高纬度环流异常反位相且呈环状分布,北半球极涡环流不仅具有环状分布,分区极涡还能更好的表征北太平洋地区半永久大气活动中心和侧重反映欧亚大陆环流异常的偏态分布特征；极涡太平洋面积指数与北太平洋的西风漂流区、赤道中东太平洋(ENSO模态区)海温关系密切,AO则与北大西洋漂流区SST异常密切。对AO位相异常进行分级,分析发现当AO正异常时对应PDO冷位相(La Nina型),反之为典型El Nino分布,而极端异常时赤道中东太平洋区的海温异常与之相反,显著性较弱；冬季极涡面积、强度随冬季ENSO事件和PDO位相的不同而呈现出显著的差异性,其中La Nina和PDO位相异常与AO、极涡异常同期关联显著。数值模拟亦表明,北太平洋冬季ENSO事件和PDO位相异常与同期AO、极涡异常分布联系显著。AO与极涡面积异常变化相反,而与强度变化正相关,关键区主要位于北美、大西洋欧洲区域。具体表现为北半球极涡面积偏大时,极区相对偏暖,而冷空气集中于中高纬度陆地,呈显著的AO负位相分布,反之,冷空气则主要龟缩于极区,对中高纬度冬季气候冷异常的影响很小。
(4)AO与北半球极涡同样对欧亚大陆冬、夏季气候的影响具有互补性。北半球极涡及其分区指数、AO指数分别与极区、欧亚大陆中高纬度地区和中国区域的冬季气温相关呈现反位相分布。其中AO与极区、中东地区北部、北非大陆和北大西洋气温关系密切,而北半球极涡面积指数则与北太平洋西风漂流区和赤道中东太平洋气温相关更加显著。当北半球极涡面积大时,欧亚大陆中、高纬度至北美洲中东部气温偏低,非洲北部和格陵兰岛气温偏高,AO异常则相反。北美区和大西洋欧洲区的极涡面积指数对中、高纬度极区气温影响具有相似性,但对区域气温的异常影响范围、强度等略有差异；亚洲区极涡面积指数不仅对亚洲中高纬度,还对中国东部及沿海区域,以及巴基斯坦等南亚和西北印度洋地区气温异常作用显著,恰恰能够表征亚洲大陆西面和东面两支主要冷空气向低纬度暴发的某些特征；总体而言,极涡与AO对北半球气温的影响具有共同的热力性质。但极涡及其分区活动,能更好地体现其与各大洲气温显著相关的地域特征。亚洲区极涡活动与AO指数对北半球冬季气温场影响相比,能更好地体现其与各大洲气温显著相关的地域特征,其主要机制是冬季北半球极涡及分区面积能清晰反映出北半球冷空气活动偏态活动特征,尤其能很好描述亚洲冬季风不仅体现在东亚,另一支侧重在中亚地区。此外,冬季AO、极涡对中国地区同期和次年夏季的温度、降水具有较好相关性,表明AO和极涡也是中国冬季温度和次年夏季温度和降水变化的主要因子,但上述关系亦呈现出显著的区域性差异。北半球极涡及分区面积波动显著；北半球极涡及分区面积不仅在冬季活动具有显著特点,春季北太平洋极涡面积强与弱的差值还强迫出NPO的正位相,并且成为影响夏季东北地区低温的重要前期信号,NPO的正(负)位相,有利于在北太平洋区域上空形成定常的超长波槽(脊),在非绝热加热后退慢波的作用下,分别对东北亚的冷涡(阻塞高压)异常活动提供低(高)值扰动源。
(5)AO与北半球极涡的异常变化与2008年以来欧亚大陆地区出现的冬季低温以及与东北夏季低温的诊断分析。多个例综合分析发现,2008年1-2月中国大范围、持续性的低温、雨雪、冰冻灾害与AO负位相分布有关；自2009年以来连续3年的北半球尤其是欧亚大陆中高纬度冬季低温事件频发,不仅由冬季AO负位相所致(2011年冬季AO为正位相除外),还与北半球极涡面积特别是亚洲区极涡面积偏大联系密切；2009年夏季东北气温偏低,冷涡活动异常偏多,不仅与其前冬1-2月AO正位相分布显著相关,还与北太平洋极涡面积偏小,也就是NPO的负位相联系密切。综合分析表明：2008年以来欧亚大陆地区出现的冷事件主要受AO、极涡异常变化的影响所致,AO和极涡是21世纪以来欧亚大陆中高纬度地区冬季频发的直接且最主要的影响因子,与太平洋极涡面积联系密切的NPO异常位相不仅是东北夏季气温变化的重要前期信号,还是大气中除了天气尺度混沌分量外可提取的行星尺度稳定分量。
(6)极涡及分区与AO同北半球海-气系统主要模态间的联系,特别是对21世纪初叶欧业大陆中高纬度地区冷冬开始频发的物理机制解释,具有互补性。北半球极涡及分4个区活动(亚洲、北太平洋、北美和大西洋欧洲区),是否具有客观性,正是本论文所要着重研究“互补性”的科学问题。
In the early21st century, especially since2008, cold winter has occurred frequently in Eurasia, the most significant place responsing to global warming. Contrast with the warming background since1980s, it has attracted special attention of scholars both at home and abroad. In this paper, using reanalysis data provided by NCEP/NCAR including monthly mean global surface temperature, height and wind, global SST reanalysis data provided by NOAA, and AO index data, aiming at the low temperature anomalies region in mid-high latitude in Eurasia, it could be divided into two winter temperature anomaly stages, before and after global warming (1980). We selected two different period of frequent winter low temperature, thus1960s-1970s and early21th century, and carried on a research on contrasting and analyzing their low temperature anomaly regions and the characteristics of large scale atmospheric circulation. We focused on the temporal variation rule and the characteristic of spatial distribution in detail of two important circulation systems for northern hemisphere winter, arctic oscillation (AO) and polar vortex. On this basis, we revealed the homogeny and complementarity of the effect on northern hemisphere climate anomaly of the arctic oscillation and the whole or different part of the polar vortex, especial the relationship between the both systems and the winter temperature anomaly in mid-high latitude of Eurasia. At last, we also conducted a further analysis on the cause and mechanism of frequent low temperature in winter since2008. We concluded that:
1) In21th century especial since2008, low winter temperature in Eurasia ocurried frequently.
The winters with low temperature has accounted for about2/3of the total winters since global warming, and it stays in a stage of low temperature, showing some similarities and differences of characteristic with that before1970s. The atmospheric circulations of the above two stages are similar. It is a relatively deep vertical structure from the lower to the upper troposphere in mid-hight latitude, and showing a significant annular structure in the northern hemisphere (AO). Northerly winds in Ural Mountains are strong and blowing towards east and west direction respectively. It is active of cold air in northern Eurasia.
Before global warming, the height fields in mid-low latitudes of cold winters were consistently low, strong clod air in Polar Regions transfered southward to mid-high latitudes in mid-low troposphere, and E-P flux converged from low latitude and Polar Regions. However, since21th century, the height fields of cold winter represent an opposite phase distribution, thus, it is negative anomaly in lower troposphere, and it is positive anomaly in upper troposphere in mid-low latitudes. It is weak of northerly wind to blow southward, low temperature anomaly of stratosphere in mid-low latitude leans to northern Eurasia, and E-P flux only converged from tropopause in low latitude. Comprehensive analysis shows that it has a south-north difference between the two stages, which leading to the difference of the low temperature distribution in winter. Since21th century, low temperature anomaly area is only located in mid-high latitudes in Eurasia. However, before global warming, it covered the extensive regions from mid-low latitudes to northern Polar Regions. Such a planetary scale difference of low temperature in Eurasia could not be explained by regional circulation. So, it is necessary to conduct a research on horizontal and vertical structure characteristics of the arctic oscillation and the whole or different part of the polar vortex, and the relationship between the above with clod winter in Eurasia since21th century.
2) Temporal variation rule and space distribution characteristics of AO and polar in winter.
For AO, its vertical distribution presents a deep quasi-barotropic structure from sea surface to stratosphere. When it stays in a positive phase, height anomaly is negative in Polar Regions, and it is positive in mid and high latitudes. The significant region of teleconnection distribution is located in troposphere. While in latitudinal direction, it shows a markedly skewed distribution. When AO stays in a positive phase, the main characteristic is that the atmospheric pressure in North Pacific is lower than that in North Atlantic. When in a negative phase, it presents that the atmospheric pressure in North Atlantic is higher. For polar vortex in northern hemisphere, it is significant autocorrelation for polar vortex indexes both in200hPa and500hPa, which indicate that the polar vortex in the northern hemisphere was positive pressure state in middle and upper troposphere. Besides, in troposphere of Northern hemisphere the major positive pressure mode presents a negative oscillation between polar vortex and mid-high latitudes. And along with the height changes into stratosphere, it only presents an active polar vortex mode.
In temporal variation rules, AO has significant decadal cycle. Especially in SLP and500hPa, the amplitude reached a peak in1970's. And after2000's, it changed into a new cycle. It also appears significant cycles in interannual scale and multi-interdecadal scales in the northern hemisphere and its four polar vortexes located in different regions, which showing a6-7waves distribution. And it also changed into a new long cycle stage in late2000s.
3) It has some similarities and differences of anomalous relationship between sea-air system and AO or polar vortex (including its different partitions) in northern hemisphere. They also are complementary for each other.
It is the annular distribution for the AO negative phase, showing the opposite anomaly between Polar Regions and mid-high latitudes in northern hemisphere. While, for polar vortex circulation, it is not only showing a annular distribution, but also charactering semipermanent atmospheric activity center in north Pacific better, and reflecting the skewness distribution characteristics of circulation anomalies in Eurasia. Sea surface temperature (SST) of west wind drift area in north Pacific and middle-east equator Pacific Ocean (ENSO) both have a relationship with the Pacific area index of polar vortex. While AO is related to SST in the north Atlantic drift area. After classifying anomalous phases of AO, we could find that positive AO anomaly corresponds with negative phase of PDO (La Nina), and negative AO anomaly corresponds with typical El Nino distribution. When AO stays in an extreme anomaly state, the corresponding relationship is opposite with the above. Both the effected area and strength of polar vortex in winter appear obvious distinction as the phases of ENSO or PDO change. It is significantly synchronous related for the phase anomalys of La Nina and PDO to AO and polar vortex, which has been proved by numerical simulation. Besides, AO is negatively/positively related to area/strength of polar vortex, and the significantly related regions are mainly located in North America and Atlantic nearby Europe. When the area of polar vortex in northern hemisphere is larger, it is relatively warmer in the polar region. At the same time, cold air concentrates at high latitudes in the land, embodying significantly AO negative phase distribution. On the other hand, the cold air is mainly to huddle in the polar region, has less effect on the high-latitude climate anomaly.
4) It also has some conplementary for AO and polar vortex to the effect on both summer and winter climate in Eurasia.
Polar vortex in the northern hemisphere, its different partition indexes, and AO index are negatively related to the winter temperature in polar area, high latitudes of Eurasia and China respectively. Among them, the temperatures of regions which are more significantly related to AO are located in polar area, the north Middle East, North Africa, and the north Atlantic. While polar vortex area index in the northern hemisphere is more significantly related to temperatures in the north Pacific west wind drift region and the Middle-East equator Pacific. When polar vortex area in the northern hemisphere is larger, it is colder from high latitudes of Eurasia to middle-east North America, and warmer in northern Africa and Greenland. However, the corresponding relationship is opposite for AO anomaly. Temperatures of middle and high latitudes in polar area are similar influenced by polar vortex area indexes in North America and the Atlantic nearby Europe. But the impact on anomaly scope, intensity of regional temperature is slightly different. Polar vortex area index in Asia is significantly related to temperatures not only in middle and high latitudes in Asia, but also in Eastern China and coastal areas and parts of South Asia like Pakistan and northwest Indian Ocean, which could precisely depict some characteristics that two main cold air burst out into low latitudes from the west and the east Asian continent. Overall, AO and polar vortex have similar thermal property to temperature of the northern hemisphere. While compared with the effect on the temperature field in the northern hemisphere winter, polar vortex in the northern hemisphere and its partition activity can better reflect regional characteristic on significantly related relationship between itself and temperature of each continent. The major mechanism, for polar vortex in Asia is that the area of the polar vortex could clearly reflect the activity characteristics of cold air, especially could depict the East Asian winter monsoon which is not only in East Asia, but also in Central Asia. Besides, AO and polar vortex area in winter are both well related to temperatures and precipitation in China during the same period and summer next year, showing that AO and polar vortex are the main factors leading to the temperature and precipitation changes in winter and next summer even though with great regional distinction. It fluctuates significantly of the areas of polar vortex and its partitions in the northern hemisphere, which has marked characteristics in winter. And the difference between the strong and weak earas of partition in north Pacific could also enforce the positive phase of NPO, which is an important early signal for low temperature of northeast China. The positive/negative phase of NPO conducives to the formation of constant super long wave trough/ridge, which will provide low/high value disturbance source for anomalous activities of cold vortex/blocking high in Northeast Asia under the function of non adiabatic heating by backward and slow wave.
5) the diagnosis analysis of the effect of AO and polar vortex in northern hemisphere anomaly changes on winter low temperature in Eurasia and summer low temperature in northeast China since2008.
After comprehensive analysis on individual cases, we could find that wide range and continuous low temperature, sleet and freezing disasters occurred in China from January to February2008are associated with AO positive phase distribution. Frequent low temperature events in winter in the northern hemisphere, especially the high latitude in Eurasia since2009, not only caused by the interseasonal AO negative phase (with the exception of the2011winter), and also are associated with the larger polar vortex area especially parts in Asia. Both low summer temperatures in northeast China and frequent cold vortex activity in2009are not only significantly related to AO positive phase in previous winter (January to February), but also have relationship with small polar vortex area in north Pacific (the negative phase of NPO). Comprehensive analysis shows that cold events occurried in Eurasia since2008are mainly affected by the anonamly changes of AO and polar vortex. AO and polar vortex are directly and main influence factors for frequent cold winter in mid-high latitudes of Eurasia since21th century. The anomaly phase of NPO which has relationship with polar vortex areas in Pacific is not only the important early signals for summer temperature anomaly in northeast China, but also the steady component in planetary scale which could be extracted in addition to chaotic components in synoptic-scale.
6) It is complementary each other between AO and polar vortex (including its partitions) for the relationship with the major models of sea-air system, and especial for the mechanism of cold winter occurried in mid-high latitudes of Eurasia in early21th century. What we focus on in this paper is whether polar vortex and its four partitions in the northern hemisphere (in Asia, north Pacific, north America and Atlantic near Europe) have objectivity.
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