中国商品贸易模式演进与背离研究
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摘要
本文在梳理和评析比较优势理论和战略性贸易政策理论的基础上提出了贸易模式均衡假说,进而建立一个贸易模式演进特征及其背离倾向的分析框架,对1992-2008年中国对外贸易政策与商品贸易模式的关系进行多方面的经验性研究。本文的研究目的主要在于回答“是什么”、“怎么样”、“为什么”、“有没有”和“怎么办”五方面主要问题。主要观点和结论为:(1)2008年中国的贸易结构与贸易模式在不同技术含量的产品类别上存在较大差异,并广泛存在着显示性比较优势与净出口比率状况不符的贸易模式背离现象和贸易模式背离倾向,反映出我国鼓励资源型产品进口和制成品出口的战略性贸易政策,并在多数工业制成品的贸易上存在强调顺差的重商主义倾向;(2)1992-2008年对外贸易模式的演进及其背离是连续、动态的过程。以初级产品为主的多数产品类别显示性比较优势意义上的分工专业化程度趋于提高,但净出口则趋于分散;农业制成品、低技术制成品、自动化设备制成品和加工类制成品的贸易模式背离倾向指数上升趋势明显,而加工贸易因素使高技术产品出现贸易模式负背离倾向并不断强化;(3)资本深化、劳动生产率以及制度变迁因素推动中国走上了一条强调出口,用外需弥补内需不足的发展路径,但这种具有重商主义倾向的战略性贸易政策不但在短期无益于劳动生产率提高,从长期看反而会阻碍经济发展;(4)贸易的比较优势是净出口能力的原因而不是结果,无视比较优势的实际状况,试图靠扭曲国内价格体系来促进出口能力,从而提升国际贸易和国际分工比较优势的作法只能在极个别的领域获得成功;(5)制定和调整贸易政策和经济发展政策应坚持贸易或出口只是经济发展的手段而绝不是终极目的;坚持立足于中国的实际情况;坚持以技术进步作为评价政策绩效的主要标准;坚持结构性思路,对不同类型的产品采取不同具体的战略性贸易政策。
The dissertation studies the changes and distortion of Chinese commodity trade pattern in 1992-2008. Three reasons can be enumerated to explain the choice of this topic: Firstly, the commodity trade has made great development which facilitates the development of Chinese economy; Secondly, the excessive trade surplus of China has been widely scrutinized by almost every trade partner country, with an increase in protectionism and trade conflicts. A mainstream opinion links the trade surplus to Chinese investment-saving disequilibrium and the global imbalance, casting doubts on the trade pattern and even the economic development pattern of China; Thirdly, China has long adopted policies to support exports of manufactured products with an attempt to reinforce the relevant industries. However, only a few studies empirically analyze the effects of the strategic trade policies, leaving extensive space for further arguments. Consequently, a thorough analysis is necessary to explore deep into the dynamic features of Chinese commodity trade pattern.
The study is structured as follows:
Chapter 1 introduces the background of the theme, major conceptions, frame and principal innovations of the study. Chapter 2 reviews the literatures on the theory of comparative advantage and strategic trade policy, pointing out that the two theories are not radically contradictory, but the latter may tend to be embedded with mercantilism. Basing on the hypothesis of trade pattern equilibrium, where net exoport ratio (NRX) of an product is predetermined by its revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA), this chapter develops an analysis framework of trade pattern distortion as well as the propensity for trade pattern distortion. Moreover, 260 SITC Rev.3 3 digit level trade products are aggregated into 5 technology-based product categories, namely primary products, resource-based products, low, medium and high-technology products for further empirical tests.
Chapter 3 answers the question of "what is the current situation of the trade patterns in 2008". The distribution of Hillman conditions, RSCA and NRX and their combination, as well as the trade pattern distortion propensity index, are separately described for major products of the 11 technology intensity based product categories. China has revealed comparative advantage in low-technology manufactured products and the labour intensive process of high-technology electronic and electrical products, while imports of primary resource products, resource-based products and intermediaries for processing trade are especially emphasized. Moreover, trade pattern distortion propensity index analysis provides more evidence for the mercantilist oriention of Chinese strategic trade policy.
The question of "How has the Chinese trade patterns evolved" is anwered in Chapter 4. Lawrence index analysis reveals that the structural changes of Chinese imports are larger than that of exports, but there exist differences for each technology-based product categories; Hillman condition tests show an increased consistence of revealed comparative andvantage and specialization comparative andvantage; Cantwell tests are conducted to capture the dynamics of RSCA and NRX. Both RSCA and NRX are increasing for medium- technology and high-technology product groups and are declining for primary and resource-based products. What is noteworthy is that the low- technology group of "textile, garment, footwear" is winning in NRX but losing in the sense of RSCA, indicating an apparent preference for trade surplus. The changes of trade pattern and trade pattern distortion propensity for each product group are studied individually, strong evidences are found that the positive trade pattern distortion has been tending to be increasingly serious.
Chapter 5 answers "Why do the trade patterns distort". A dynamic model is derived from Cobb-Douglass function, with trade balance, rural labor mobility, intensity of government financial expenditure and capital deepening as explaining factors for labor productivity. Short-run and long-run Granger causality tests indicate that Chinese external disequilibrium is largely the result of domestic institutional changes. Although a substitution relationship is idendified between the export-oriented economic development and the relative intensity of fiscal intervention, there can be found no evidence that net exports can significantly improve Chinese labour productivity in the short-run. There exists rather negative long-run Granger causality from net exports to GDP per labour, implying the low efficiency of China's export-oriented economic development pattern.
Chapter 6 attempts to answer the question of "How is the performance of Chinese strategic trade policy". Panel cointegration and Granger causality tests are conducted to explore the relationship between RSCA and NRX for 11 categoried products. The results show that NRX is generally based on RSCA, while the strategic trade policy is only effective for mineral primary products and medium-technology automation equipments, with very limited effects for most other products. In general, the performance of Chinese strategic trade policy is poor, in the sense of improving comparative advantage by encouraging exports.
In Chapter 7 the dissertation concludes, aiming to answer the questions of "How to adjust the Chinese commodity trade patterns". Four principles are presented: 1) Abandoning the mercantilist oriention which is featured with the over-emphasis of exports and trade surplus; 2) Insisting on the progressive patterns of technology upgrading and industrial adjustment, according to the rule of technological change and on the basis of current comparative advantage; 3) Aiming at long-run technological progress and industrial structural change when making strategic trade policies and industrial policies; and 4) Considering structural differences among the product categories and making differentiated trade and industrial policies, allowing support, laissez-faire, or disencouragement for commodity exports.
The dissertation studies the changes and distortion of Chinese commodity trade pattern in 1992-2008. Three reasons can be enumerated to explain the choice of this topic: Firstly, the commodity trade has made great development which facilitates the development of Chinese economy; Secondly, the excessive trade surplus of China has been widely scrutinized by almost every trade partner country, with an increase in protectionism and trade conflicts. A mainstream opinion links the trade surplus to Chinese investment-saving disequilibrium and the global imbalance, casting doubts on the trade pattern and even the economic development pattern of China; Thirdly, China has long adopted policies to support exports of manufactured products with an attempt to reinforce the relevant industries. However, only a few studies empirically analyze the effects of the strategic trade policies, leaving extensive space for further arguments. Consequently, a thorough analysis is necessary to explore deep into the dynamic features of Chinese commodity trade pattern.
The study is structured as follows:
Chapter 1 introduces the background of the theme, major conceptions, frame and principal innovations of the study. Chapter 2 reviews the literatures on the theory of comparative advantage and strategic trade policy, pointing out that the two theories are not radically contradictory, but the latter may tend to be embedded with mercantilism. Basing on the hypothesis of trade pattern equilibrium, where net exoport ratio (NRX) of an product is predetermined by its revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA), this chapter develops an analysis framework of trade pattern distortion as well as the propensity for trade pattern distortion. Moreover, 260 SITC Rev.3 3 digit level trade products are aggregated into 5 technology-based product categories, namely primary products, resource-based products, low, medium and high-technology products for further empirical tests.
Chapter 3 answers the question of "what is the current situation of the trade patterns in 2008". The distribution of Hillman conditions, RSCA and NRX and their combination, as well as the trade pattern distortion propensity index, are separately described for major products of the 11 technology intensity based product categories. China has revealed comparative advantage in low-technology manufactured products and the labour intensive process of high-technology electronic and electrical products, while imports of primary resource products, resource-based products and intermediaries for processing trade are especially emphasized. Moreover, trade pattern distortion propensity index analysis provides more evidence for the mercantilist oriention of Chinese strategic trade policy.
The question of "How has the Chinese trade patterns evolved" is anwered in Chapter 4. Lawrence index analysis reveals that the structural changes of Chinese imports are larger than that of exports, but there exist differences for each technology-based product categories; Hillman condition tests show an increased consistence of revealed comparative andvantage and specialization comparative andvantage; Cantwell tests are conducted to capture the dynamics of RSCA and NRX. Both RSCA and NRX are increasing for medium- technology and high-technology product groups and are declining for primary and resource-based products. What is noteworthy is that the low- technology group of "textile, garment, footwear" is winning in NRX but losing in the sense of RSCA, indicating an apparent preference for trade surplus. The changes of trade pattern and trade pattern distortion propensity for each product group are studied individually, strong evidences are found that the positive trade pattern distortion has been tending to be increasingly serious.
Chapter 5 answers "Why do the trade patterns distort". A dynamic model is derived from Cobb-Douglass function, with trade balance, rural labor mobility, intensity of government financial expenditure and capital deepening as explaining factors for labor productivity. Short-run and long-run Granger causality tests indicate that Chinese external disequilibrium is largely the result of domestic institutional changes. Although a substitution relationship is idendified between the export-oriented economic development and the relative intensity of fiscal intervention, there can be found no evidence that net exports can significantly improve Chinese labour productivity in the short-run. There exists rather negative long-run Granger causality from net exports to GDP per labour, implying the low efficiency of China's export-oriented economic development pattern.
Chapter 6 attempts to answer the question of "How is the performance of Chinese strategic trade policy". Panel cointegration and Granger causality tests are conducted to explore the relationship between RSCA and NRX for 11 categoried products. The results show that NRX is generally based on RSCA, while the strategic trade policy is only effective for mineral primary products and medium-technology automation equipments, with very limited effects for most other products. In general, the performance of Chinese strategic trade policy is poor, in the sense of improving comparative advantage by encouraging exports.
In Chapter 7 the dissertation concludes, aiming to answer the questions of "How to adjust the Chinese commodity trade patterns". Four principles are presented: 1) Abandoning the mercantilist oriention which is featured with the over-emphasis of exports and trade surplus; 2) Insisting on the progressive patterns of technology upgrading and industrial adjustment, according to the rule of technological change and on the basis of current comparative advantage; 3) Aiming at long-run technological progress and industrial structural change when making strategic trade policies and industrial policies; and 4) Considering structural differences among the product categories and making differentiated trade and industrial policies, allowing support, laissez-faire, or disencouragement for commodity exports.
引文
①数据来源:http://zhs.mofcom.gov.cn/tongji.shtml
②数据来源:http://tradeinservices.mofcom.gov.cn/c/2008-11-17/62303.shtml
③关于中国国际收支双顺差的深入讨论可参阅:黄旭平、毛中根(2005);李鸿飞(2005);王月溪(2005);张曙光(2005);姜巍(2006);康立(2006);卢锋(2006);卢锋等(2006);余永定(2006);余永定、覃东海(2006);郑宝银(2006);巴曙松等(2007);邓立、张坤(2007);焦武、许少强(2007);孔曙东(2007);谭雅玲(2007);唐建伟(2007);徐明东、田素华(2007);许少强、焦武(2007);张燕生等(2007)。
①如:蓝庆新(2001);姚战琪(2002);庞守林、田志宏(2004);彭磊(2004);董小麟、董苑玫(2006);胡求光、霍学喜(2007);姜爱英(2007);王煜.(2007);尹栾玉(2007);宇方成(2007)。
②关于进口贸易与中国经济增长关系的研究可参阅:范柏乃、王益兵(2004);李平、鲁婧颉(2006);林永生、张生玲(2006);孙敬水(2007);徐光耀(2007);周春应(2007)。
①如:闫逢柱、张文兵(2007);毛凤霞、王朝阳(2008);范琛、张朝辉(2008)等。
②从这一意义上讲,相关研究文献包括但不局限于:Vernon(1966);Dixit和Norman(1980);Helpman(1987);Grossman(1992);Krugman(1994);Markusen(1995);Feenstra(2003);张定胜、杨小凯(2004);樊纲等(2006);李小平、朱钟棣(2006);Huang和Liu(2007);Fujita(2007);Janeba(2007);周申等(2007);Christiaans(2008);Kiyota和Urata(2008);Arribas等(2009);Baier和Bergstrand(2009a,2009b);Chen等(2009)。
③请参阅:Brown等(2003);彭国华(2007);刘遵义等(2007);陈六傅、钱学锋(2007);Disdie和Head(2008);Bahmani-Oskooee和Ratha(2008);Egger(2008);Lampe(2008)。
①例如:Findlay(1971);Dunning(1974);Hymans和Stafford(1995);Cypher和Dietz(1998,2008);Ocampo和Taylor (1998);张小蒂,李风华(2001);郑卫峰(2001);Subasat(2002);杜朝晖(2003);Lovett等(2004);Felbermay(2007);郭克莎(2004);张焕明(2007);Barry和Walsh(2008);Kiely(2008)。
②动态比较优势相关机理的研究还可参阅:Katz(1984);Nishimizu和Page(1986);Mody(1990);Reynolds(1990);Fagerberg(1994);Stokey(1996);Ruttan(1997);Redding(1999);Eswaran和Kotwa(l2001);Barnes等(2004);Doi等(2007);Goo和Park(2007);Botta(2009)。
①对RCA指数和NRX指数形式的深入讨论见本文第二章第三节。
②运用产业内贸易指数进行实证研究的文献如:宋全成(2003);任志祥、宋玉华(2004);张海霞(2006);王恬(2006);范爱军、林琳(2006);李汉君(2006);黄卫平、韩燕(2006);林琳(2006);李盾(2007);沈国兵(2007)。
③对贸易模式背离及贸易模式背离倾向的详细讨论见本文第二章第三节。
①全称为《国民财富的性质和原因的研究》(An Inquiry into the Nature And Causes of the Wealth of Nations),1776年出版。本文参考的版本为:亚当·斯密(郭大力、王亚南译).国民财富的性质和原因的研究[M].北京:商务印书馆,1972.
②英文文献名为“On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation”,1817出版,本文参考的版本为:大卫·李嘉图(郭大力、王亚南译).政治经济学及赋税原理[M].北京:商务印书馆,1972.
③请参阅:Balassa(1963);Katrak(1969);Solocha(1994);Soloch(1991);chefold(1998);李松志、刘叶飙(2007);隋福民、饶鹏(2007);刘厚俊、袁志田(2006);周梅妮(2005);杨玉生(2004);曾国良(2004)。
①具体而言,赫克歇尔—俄林的要素禀赋理论的基本假设包括:(1)贸易中有两个国家、两种产品、两种生产要素;(2)两国在生产中都使用相同的技术;(3)在两个国家中不存在要素密集度颠倒;(4)在两个国家中,两种产品的生产都是规模报酬不变的;(5)两国在生产中均为不完全分工;(6)两国的需求偏好相同;(7)在两个国家中,两种商品与两种要素市场都是完全竞争的;(8)在一国之内要素可以自由流动,但要素不能在国际间自由流动;(9)没有运输成本、关税或影响自由贸易的其他壁垒;(10)两国的资源都得到了充分利用;(11)两国的贸易是平衡的。参阅:萨尔瓦多(2003)。
②相关文献请参阅:Findlay(1970);Ruffin(1990);Fujiwara and Shimomura(2005);Hu, Kemp and Shimomura(2005);葛伟民(2002);Reeve(2006);何慧爽、刘东勋(2006)。
①关于正反馈效应和路径依赖请参阅:Chen(1992);Arthur(1994,1999);Elmslie(1994);Matthews(2001);Martin and Sunley(2006);Smith and Foley(2008);Van den Bergh(2008)。
①显示性比较优势指数的应用可参阅:Jones等(1993),Lee(1995),Maule(1996),Hoekman和Djankov(1997),Amiti(1999),Fert?和Hubbard(2003),Svaleryd和Vlachos(2005),以及Brunner和Cali(2006)。
①如:许心鹏等(2002),Naya and Plummer(2006),毛日昇(2006),Kreinin(2007),刘钧霆(2008)。
②如:齐俊妍(2008);杨汝岱、朱诗娥(2008);姚洋、章林峰(2008)。
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②数据来源:http://tradeinservices.mofcom.gov.cn/c/2008-11-17/62303.shtml
③关于中国国际收支双顺差的深入讨论可参阅:黄旭平、毛中根(2005);李鸿飞(2005);王月溪(2005);张曙光(2005);姜巍(2006);康立(2006);卢锋(2006);卢锋等(2006);余永定(2006);余永定、覃东海(2006);郑宝银(2006);巴曙松等(2007);邓立、张坤(2007);焦武、许少强(2007);孔曙东(2007);谭雅玲(2007);唐建伟(2007);徐明东、田素华(2007);许少强、焦武(2007);张燕生等(2007)。
①如:蓝庆新(2001);姚战琪(2002);庞守林、田志宏(2004);彭磊(2004);董小麟、董苑玫(2006);胡求光、霍学喜(2007);姜爱英(2007);王煜.(2007);尹栾玉(2007);宇方成(2007)。
②关于进口贸易与中国经济增长关系的研究可参阅:范柏乃、王益兵(2004);李平、鲁婧颉(2006);林永生、张生玲(2006);孙敬水(2007);徐光耀(2007);周春应(2007)。
①如:闫逢柱、张文兵(2007);毛凤霞、王朝阳(2008);范琛、张朝辉(2008)等。
②从这一意义上讲,相关研究文献包括但不局限于:Vernon(1966);Dixit和Norman(1980);Helpman(1987);Grossman(1992);Krugman(1994);Markusen(1995);Feenstra(2003);张定胜、杨小凯(2004);樊纲等(2006);李小平、朱钟棣(2006);Huang和Liu(2007);Fujita(2007);Janeba(2007);周申等(2007);Christiaans(2008);Kiyota和Urata(2008);Arribas等(2009);Baier和Bergstrand(2009a,2009b);Chen等(2009)。
③请参阅:Brown等(2003);彭国华(2007);刘遵义等(2007);陈六傅、钱学锋(2007);Disdie和Head(2008);Bahmani-Oskooee和Ratha(2008);Egger(2008);Lampe(2008)。
①例如:Findlay(1971);Dunning(1974);Hymans和Stafford(1995);Cypher和Dietz(1998,2008);Ocampo和Taylor (1998);张小蒂,李风华(2001);郑卫峰(2001);Subasat(2002);杜朝晖(2003);Lovett等(2004);Felbermay(2007);郭克莎(2004);张焕明(2007);Barry和Walsh(2008);Kiely(2008)。
②动态比较优势相关机理的研究还可参阅:Katz(1984);Nishimizu和Page(1986);Mody(1990);Reynolds(1990);Fagerberg(1994);Stokey(1996);Ruttan(1997);Redding(1999);Eswaran和Kotwa(l2001);Barnes等(2004);Doi等(2007);Goo和Park(2007);Botta(2009)。
①对RCA指数和NRX指数形式的深入讨论见本文第二章第三节。
②运用产业内贸易指数进行实证研究的文献如:宋全成(2003);任志祥、宋玉华(2004);张海霞(2006);王恬(2006);范爱军、林琳(2006);李汉君(2006);黄卫平、韩燕(2006);林琳(2006);李盾(2007);沈国兵(2007)。
③对贸易模式背离及贸易模式背离倾向的详细讨论见本文第二章第三节。
①全称为《国民财富的性质和原因的研究》(An Inquiry into the Nature And Causes of the Wealth of Nations),1776年出版。本文参考的版本为:亚当·斯密(郭大力、王亚南译).国民财富的性质和原因的研究[M].北京:商务印书馆,1972.
②英文文献名为“On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation”,1817出版,本文参考的版本为:大卫·李嘉图(郭大力、王亚南译).政治经济学及赋税原理[M].北京:商务印书馆,1972.
③请参阅:Balassa(1963);Katrak(1969);Solocha(1994);Soloch(1991);chefold(1998);李松志、刘叶飙(2007);隋福民、饶鹏(2007);刘厚俊、袁志田(2006);周梅妮(2005);杨玉生(2004);曾国良(2004)。
①具体而言,赫克歇尔—俄林的要素禀赋理论的基本假设包括:(1)贸易中有两个国家、两种产品、两种生产要素;(2)两国在生产中都使用相同的技术;(3)在两个国家中不存在要素密集度颠倒;(4)在两个国家中,两种产品的生产都是规模报酬不变的;(5)两国在生产中均为不完全分工;(6)两国的需求偏好相同;(7)在两个国家中,两种商品与两种要素市场都是完全竞争的;(8)在一国之内要素可以自由流动,但要素不能在国际间自由流动;(9)没有运输成本、关税或影响自由贸易的其他壁垒;(10)两国的资源都得到了充分利用;(11)两国的贸易是平衡的。参阅:萨尔瓦多(2003)。
②相关文献请参阅:Findlay(1970);Ruffin(1990);Fujiwara and Shimomura(2005);Hu, Kemp and Shimomura(2005);葛伟民(2002);Reeve(2006);何慧爽、刘东勋(2006)。
①关于正反馈效应和路径依赖请参阅:Chen(1992);Arthur(1994,1999);Elmslie(1994);Matthews(2001);Martin and Sunley(2006);Smith and Foley(2008);Van den Bergh(2008)。
①显示性比较优势指数的应用可参阅:Jones等(1993),Lee(1995),Maule(1996),Hoekman和Djankov(1997),Amiti(1999),Fert?和Hubbard(2003),Svaleryd和Vlachos(2005),以及Brunner和Cali(2006)。
①如:许心鹏等(2002),Naya and Plummer(2006),毛日昇(2006),Kreinin(2007),刘钧霆(2008)。
②如:齐俊妍(2008);杨汝岱、朱诗娥(2008);姚洋、章林峰(2008)。
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