产品内分工与贸易的决定因素
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摘要
20世纪70年代后,随着经济全球化进程的不断深入与科学技术革命的不断发展,国际分工从产品层面延伸到产品内工序层面,产品内分工以及建立在此基础上的贸易形式开始日渐增长。这种贸易形式以产品生产过程的分散化为基础,根据不同国家与地区所存在的资源禀赋、生产技术、交易成本、制度等因素的差异,将原来生产的过程拆分为不同的生产阶段并分散到不同的国家与地区进行生产,形成以生产工序、环节为对象的分工体系。
基于比较优势的传统贸易理论和建立在规模经济与不完全竞争前提下的新贸易理论仍可以解释该分工与贸易的成因。但由于产品内分工的一些问题难以用贸易理论来解释,比如产品内分工与贸易的组织形式选择问题。所以产品内分工理论亟需一些新的理论加入,以完善贸易理论对产品内分工现象的合理解释。2000年以后一些经济学家从产业组织、契约理论方面分析了国际贸易理论涉及的微观基础,和世界范围产品内分工的原因及其对世界贸易模式的影响。本文在前人研究的基础上,将Grossman-Hart-Moore的不完全契约理论与国际贸易理论相结合,在Dixit-Stiglitz(DS)垄断竞争框架内建立理论模型,从不完全契约的角度分析产品内分工的出现及其组织模式选择,并讨论不完全契约对产品内贸易的影响。同时还考察企业对一体化即FDI、非一体化即外包生产的选择问题,及产品资本密集度和企业剩余控制权等因素对产品内分工与贸易的影响。
本文共分为六个部分。导论部分首先对产品内分工与贸易及相关概念作了界定,并介绍了文章的选题背景、理论现实意义、研究思路和方法、结构安排、创新点和有待研究的问题。第一章为产品内分工与贸易的文献综述,对产品内分工与贸易的成因及企业组织方式选择的相关文献进行梳理,并归纳了产品内分工与贸易的度量方法。第二章为本文的理论基础部分,首先,在国际贸易理论框架下分析产品内分工的成因。其次,在Dixit-Stiglitz(DS)垄断竞争框架内建立理论模型,从不完全契约的角度分析产品内分工的出现及其模式选择,并讨论不完全契约对产品内贸易的影响。第三章首先对亚洲经济体参与产品内分工与贸易的现状进行分析,并根据出口竞争力RCA指数和出口相似度指数,对各经济体产品内贸易情况进行比较。其次,研究中国参与产品内分工与贸易的主要形式——加工贸易的发展状况及存在的问题。再次,利用投入产出分析法计算我国工业行业出口的垂直专业化指数,从而进一步对我国参与产品内分工与贸易的程度进行分析。第四章为本文的实证部分,首先利用1996-2007年亚洲经济体的产品内贸易数据建立模型,分析国际产品内贸易的决定因素。其次在计量模型检验结果的基础上,采用主成分分析法对产品内分工与贸易的影响因素进行动态评估。第五章为结论和政策建议部分,根据以上分析对全文进行总结,并针对我国参与国际产品内分工与贸易的现状提出相关政策建议。
通过分析本文得出以下主要结论:第一,在不完全契约条件下,产品为资本密集型时,企业会选择一体化即FDI的方式进行生产,产品内贸易表现为一体化的FDI的形式;若产品为劳动密集型,企业选择外包的方式进行生产,产品内贸易形式以非一体化的外包形式。第二,与完全契约条件相比较,不完全契约会使得中间产品的资本和劳动投入不足,而且提高了产品的价格,扭曲了收入分配结构。第三,开放条件下,不完全契约不会改变传统的分工和贸易模式,资本密集型的中间产品通过一体化即FDI的方式从资本丰裕的国家获得,劳动密集性的产品通过非一体化即外包的方式从劳动丰裕的国家获得。第四,亚洲经济体内部的零部件贸易量已经大大超过了与区域外的零部件贸易。而且发展中经济体实现了产业升级,发达国家和发展中国家在产品内贸易结构上雷同。第五,利用投入产出法对我国参与产品内分工与贸易的程度表明,近十年中我国参与产品内分工与贸易的程度不断加深,2007年受国际金融危机的影响略有下降。分行业计算VS指数结果显示,机械类行业参与产品内分工与贸易程度较高;纺织和服装行业参与产品内分工与贸易的程度相对较低。第六,产品内贸易出口国的要素禀赋、基础设施条件、契约环境等因素是吸引国际生产转移的持续动力,也是产品内分工与贸易发展的基础和动因。
本文主要创新在于:第一,将传统的比较优势理论从研究对象和概念涵义上进行延伸和扩展,这种新型国际分工的研究使标准贸易理论的研究视野由产业间、产业内分工扩展到产品内分工;概念涵义也进行了扩展,如契约环境、交易成本、基础设施等因素也纳入到比较优势范围,形成了广义的比较优势的概念。第二,对产品内分工的微观基础——企业的组织形式进行深入研究。由于原有的贸易理论难以解释产品内分工的微观问题,在国际贸易理论框架中引入不完全契约理论,能够更好地分析产品内分工与贸易的成因和企业组织形式的微观基础。第三,在Dixit-Stiglitz不完全竞争、差异产品模型基础上建立理论模型,将比较优势、规模经济理论与不完全契约理论相结合,对企业的组织形式选择和贸易模式的影响进行理论分析。第四,利用回归分析和主成分分析法,对亚洲10个经济体的产品内贸易的结构及其变化进行分析,并在此基础上对影响因素进行动态评估和比较。
With the deepening of economic globalization and the development of revolution in science and technology, international specialization extends its level from product to infra-product process. Intra-product specialization and infra-product trade have become to increase since1970s. The infra-product trade based on the fragmentation which is in accordance with the differences of resource endowments, production technology, transaction costs, institutions and other factors splits the production process into different stages and different countries, which brings about this new kind of specialization system.
Traditional trade theory based on the comparative advantage and the new trade theory based on scale economy and imperfect competition can also explain the causes of intra-product specialization and trade. However, some questions about this specialization, such as choices of organizational form, cannot be explained by the trade theory. Therefore, new theories need to be added in order to improve the explanation of infra-product specialization. Since year 2000, some economists analyze the micro-basis related to international trade theory, causes and economic effects of international intra-product specialization from industrial organization and contract theory. Based on the previous studies, this dissertation combines Grossman-Hart-Moore's imperfect contract theory with the international trade theory, establishes the theoretical model in the framework of Dixit-Stiglitz's monopolistic competition model, analyzes the emergence and organizational form choices of infra-product specialization from the view of imperfect contract, and discusses the effects of imperfect contract on infra-product trade. Meanwhile, this dissertation also discusses production choices between integration, i.e. FDI and non-integration, i.e. outsourcing, and analyzes the effects of capital intensity and residual control rights on the infra-product specialization and trade.
This dissertation consists of six parts. Introduction defines the intra-product specialization, trade and other related concepts, introduces research background, theoretical and practical significance, study motifs, structure, contributions and issues to be discussed. Chapter 1 is the literature review which outlines the related literature about the causes of intra-product specialization and trade, choices of organizational form. This part also introduces measurement of intra-product specialization and trade. Chapter 2 is the theoretical basis which analyzes the causes of intra-product specialization under the framework of international trade theory. Next, this part establishes the theoretical model in the framework of Dixit-Stiglitz's monopolistic competition model, analyzes the emergence and organizational form choices of intra-product specialization from the view of imperfect contract, and discusses the effects of imperfect contract on intra-product trade. Chapter 3 firstly introduces the situation of Asian Economies' intra-product specialization, compares the situations of every economy according to the indices of RCA and ESI. Secondly, this chapter analyzes China's situation and problems in intra-product specialization and trade in the form of processing trade. Thirdly, by using the input-output analysis, this chapter calculates the vertical specialization index of Chinese industries' export, which further analyzes the degree of China's participation in intra-product specialization and trade. Chapter 4 establishes empirical model of intra-product trade of Asian Economies in 1996-2007, analyzes the determinants. Next, this part makes dynamic analysis on the determinants by using the principal component analysis. Chapter 5 concludes the dissertation and gives related suggestions according to the situations of China's intra-product specialization and trade.
This dissertation arrives at the following major conclusions. Firstly, under conditions of incomplete contract, if the product is capital-intensive, company will choose FDI approach to produce and trade; if the product is labor-intensive, will choose outsourcing approach to produce and trade. Secondly, compared with the complete contract condition, incomplete contract will make the investment inefficiency in capital and labor, increase the final product's price, and distort the structure of income distribution. Thirdly, incomplete contract will not change the traditional specialization and trade pattern. Capital intensive intermediates will be produced by capital abundant countries through the integration pattern; labor intensive intermediates will be produced by labor abundant countries through the non-integration pattern. Fourthly, trade volume of intra-product trade within Asia surpasses the volume of trade outside the region. Furthermore, developing economies have achieved the industrial upgrading, so the structure of intra-product trade between developed countries and developing countries are similar. Fifthly, the degrees of China's participation in intra-product specialization and trade shows that this index keeps increasing in recent 10 years, whereas decreases slightly in 2007 caused by international financial crises. By industries, VS indices show that the degree of mechanical industry is high; degrees of textile and clothing industry are relatively low. Sixthly, endowments, infrastructure, contractual environment are the driving force of attracting international production and the determinants of intra-product specialization and trade.
The main contributions of this dissertation are as follows. Firstly, extend the object and concept of traditional comparative advantage, from the inter-industry, intra-industry to intra-product specialization. Some factors, such as contractual environment, transaction cost and infrastructure, are included to the broad comparative advantage. Secondly, make deep analysis on the micro-basis of intra-product specialization, i.e. the form of industrial organization. Because the original trade theory difficult to explain the micro problems of intra-product specialization, the introduction of imperfect contract theory to the trade theory can explain the causes and micro basis of intra-product specialization and trade. Thirdly, on the basis of Dixit-Stiglitz imperfect competition, differentiated products model, establish theoretical model, combines the comparative advantage, scale economy and incomplete contract theory to analyze the organizational form and trade pattern. Fourthly, by using the regression analysis and principal component analysis, analyze the intra-product trade structure of Asia 10 economies, make dynamic assessment and comparison of determinants of every economy.
基于比较优势的传统贸易理论和建立在规模经济与不完全竞争前提下的新贸易理论仍可以解释该分工与贸易的成因。但由于产品内分工的一些问题难以用贸易理论来解释,比如产品内分工与贸易的组织形式选择问题。所以产品内分工理论亟需一些新的理论加入,以完善贸易理论对产品内分工现象的合理解释。2000年以后一些经济学家从产业组织、契约理论方面分析了国际贸易理论涉及的微观基础,和世界范围产品内分工的原因及其对世界贸易模式的影响。本文在前人研究的基础上,将Grossman-Hart-Moore的不完全契约理论与国际贸易理论相结合,在Dixit-Stiglitz(DS)垄断竞争框架内建立理论模型,从不完全契约的角度分析产品内分工的出现及其组织模式选择,并讨论不完全契约对产品内贸易的影响。同时还考察企业对一体化即FDI、非一体化即外包生产的选择问题,及产品资本密集度和企业剩余控制权等因素对产品内分工与贸易的影响。
本文共分为六个部分。导论部分首先对产品内分工与贸易及相关概念作了界定,并介绍了文章的选题背景、理论现实意义、研究思路和方法、结构安排、创新点和有待研究的问题。第一章为产品内分工与贸易的文献综述,对产品内分工与贸易的成因及企业组织方式选择的相关文献进行梳理,并归纳了产品内分工与贸易的度量方法。第二章为本文的理论基础部分,首先,在国际贸易理论框架下分析产品内分工的成因。其次,在Dixit-Stiglitz(DS)垄断竞争框架内建立理论模型,从不完全契约的角度分析产品内分工的出现及其模式选择,并讨论不完全契约对产品内贸易的影响。第三章首先对亚洲经济体参与产品内分工与贸易的现状进行分析,并根据出口竞争力RCA指数和出口相似度指数,对各经济体产品内贸易情况进行比较。其次,研究中国参与产品内分工与贸易的主要形式——加工贸易的发展状况及存在的问题。再次,利用投入产出分析法计算我国工业行业出口的垂直专业化指数,从而进一步对我国参与产品内分工与贸易的程度进行分析。第四章为本文的实证部分,首先利用1996-2007年亚洲经济体的产品内贸易数据建立模型,分析国际产品内贸易的决定因素。其次在计量模型检验结果的基础上,采用主成分分析法对产品内分工与贸易的影响因素进行动态评估。第五章为结论和政策建议部分,根据以上分析对全文进行总结,并针对我国参与国际产品内分工与贸易的现状提出相关政策建议。
通过分析本文得出以下主要结论:第一,在不完全契约条件下,产品为资本密集型时,企业会选择一体化即FDI的方式进行生产,产品内贸易表现为一体化的FDI的形式;若产品为劳动密集型,企业选择外包的方式进行生产,产品内贸易形式以非一体化的外包形式。第二,与完全契约条件相比较,不完全契约会使得中间产品的资本和劳动投入不足,而且提高了产品的价格,扭曲了收入分配结构。第三,开放条件下,不完全契约不会改变传统的分工和贸易模式,资本密集型的中间产品通过一体化即FDI的方式从资本丰裕的国家获得,劳动密集性的产品通过非一体化即外包的方式从劳动丰裕的国家获得。第四,亚洲经济体内部的零部件贸易量已经大大超过了与区域外的零部件贸易。而且发展中经济体实现了产业升级,发达国家和发展中国家在产品内贸易结构上雷同。第五,利用投入产出法对我国参与产品内分工与贸易的程度表明,近十年中我国参与产品内分工与贸易的程度不断加深,2007年受国际金融危机的影响略有下降。分行业计算VS指数结果显示,机械类行业参与产品内分工与贸易程度较高;纺织和服装行业参与产品内分工与贸易的程度相对较低。第六,产品内贸易出口国的要素禀赋、基础设施条件、契约环境等因素是吸引国际生产转移的持续动力,也是产品内分工与贸易发展的基础和动因。
本文主要创新在于:第一,将传统的比较优势理论从研究对象和概念涵义上进行延伸和扩展,这种新型国际分工的研究使标准贸易理论的研究视野由产业间、产业内分工扩展到产品内分工;概念涵义也进行了扩展,如契约环境、交易成本、基础设施等因素也纳入到比较优势范围,形成了广义的比较优势的概念。第二,对产品内分工的微观基础——企业的组织形式进行深入研究。由于原有的贸易理论难以解释产品内分工的微观问题,在国际贸易理论框架中引入不完全契约理论,能够更好地分析产品内分工与贸易的成因和企业组织形式的微观基础。第三,在Dixit-Stiglitz不完全竞争、差异产品模型基础上建立理论模型,将比较优势、规模经济理论与不完全契约理论相结合,对企业的组织形式选择和贸易模式的影响进行理论分析。第四,利用回归分析和主成分分析法,对亚洲10个经济体的产品内贸易的结构及其变化进行分析,并在此基础上对影响因素进行动态评估和比较。
With the deepening of economic globalization and the development of revolution in science and technology, international specialization extends its level from product to infra-product process. Intra-product specialization and infra-product trade have become to increase since1970s. The infra-product trade based on the fragmentation which is in accordance with the differences of resource endowments, production technology, transaction costs, institutions and other factors splits the production process into different stages and different countries, which brings about this new kind of specialization system.
Traditional trade theory based on the comparative advantage and the new trade theory based on scale economy and imperfect competition can also explain the causes of intra-product specialization and trade. However, some questions about this specialization, such as choices of organizational form, cannot be explained by the trade theory. Therefore, new theories need to be added in order to improve the explanation of infra-product specialization. Since year 2000, some economists analyze the micro-basis related to international trade theory, causes and economic effects of international intra-product specialization from industrial organization and contract theory. Based on the previous studies, this dissertation combines Grossman-Hart-Moore's imperfect contract theory with the international trade theory, establishes the theoretical model in the framework of Dixit-Stiglitz's monopolistic competition model, analyzes the emergence and organizational form choices of infra-product specialization from the view of imperfect contract, and discusses the effects of imperfect contract on infra-product trade. Meanwhile, this dissertation also discusses production choices between integration, i.e. FDI and non-integration, i.e. outsourcing, and analyzes the effects of capital intensity and residual control rights on the infra-product specialization and trade.
This dissertation consists of six parts. Introduction defines the intra-product specialization, trade and other related concepts, introduces research background, theoretical and practical significance, study motifs, structure, contributions and issues to be discussed. Chapter 1 is the literature review which outlines the related literature about the causes of intra-product specialization and trade, choices of organizational form. This part also introduces measurement of intra-product specialization and trade. Chapter 2 is the theoretical basis which analyzes the causes of intra-product specialization under the framework of international trade theory. Next, this part establishes the theoretical model in the framework of Dixit-Stiglitz's monopolistic competition model, analyzes the emergence and organizational form choices of intra-product specialization from the view of imperfect contract, and discusses the effects of imperfect contract on intra-product trade. Chapter 3 firstly introduces the situation of Asian Economies' intra-product specialization, compares the situations of every economy according to the indices of RCA and ESI. Secondly, this chapter analyzes China's situation and problems in intra-product specialization and trade in the form of processing trade. Thirdly, by using the input-output analysis, this chapter calculates the vertical specialization index of Chinese industries' export, which further analyzes the degree of China's participation in intra-product specialization and trade. Chapter 4 establishes empirical model of intra-product trade of Asian Economies in 1996-2007, analyzes the determinants. Next, this part makes dynamic analysis on the determinants by using the principal component analysis. Chapter 5 concludes the dissertation and gives related suggestions according to the situations of China's intra-product specialization and trade.
This dissertation arrives at the following major conclusions. Firstly, under conditions of incomplete contract, if the product is capital-intensive, company will choose FDI approach to produce and trade; if the product is labor-intensive, will choose outsourcing approach to produce and trade. Secondly, compared with the complete contract condition, incomplete contract will make the investment inefficiency in capital and labor, increase the final product's price, and distort the structure of income distribution. Thirdly, incomplete contract will not change the traditional specialization and trade pattern. Capital intensive intermediates will be produced by capital abundant countries through the integration pattern; labor intensive intermediates will be produced by labor abundant countries through the non-integration pattern. Fourthly, trade volume of intra-product trade within Asia surpasses the volume of trade outside the region. Furthermore, developing economies have achieved the industrial upgrading, so the structure of intra-product trade between developed countries and developing countries are similar. Fifthly, the degrees of China's participation in intra-product specialization and trade shows that this index keeps increasing in recent 10 years, whereas decreases slightly in 2007 caused by international financial crises. By industries, VS indices show that the degree of mechanical industry is high; degrees of textile and clothing industry are relatively low. Sixthly, endowments, infrastructure, contractual environment are the driving force of attracting international production and the determinants of intra-product specialization and trade.
The main contributions of this dissertation are as follows. Firstly, extend the object and concept of traditional comparative advantage, from the inter-industry, intra-industry to intra-product specialization. Some factors, such as contractual environment, transaction cost and infrastructure, are included to the broad comparative advantage. Secondly, make deep analysis on the micro-basis of intra-product specialization, i.e. the form of industrial organization. Because the original trade theory difficult to explain the micro problems of intra-product specialization, the introduction of imperfect contract theory to the trade theory can explain the causes and micro basis of intra-product specialization and trade. Thirdly, on the basis of Dixit-Stiglitz imperfect competition, differentiated products model, establish theoretical model, combines the comparative advantage, scale economy and incomplete contract theory to analyze the organizational form and trade pattern. Fourthly, by using the regression analysis and principal component analysis, analyze the intra-product trade structure of Asia 10 economies, make dynamic assessment and comparison of determinants of every economy.
引文
[1]北京大学中国经济研究中心,“垂直专门化,产业内贸易与中美贸易关系”,CCER Working paper,No.c2005005,2005,1-36
[2]北京大学中国经济研究中心,“中国出口贸易中的垂直专门化与中美贸易”,《世界经济》,2006年第五期
[3]范爱军,林琳,“中国工业品的国际竞争力”,《世界经济》,2006年第11期
[4]高越,“分割生产、垂直型投资与产业内贸易”,《财经研究》,2008年7月
[5]高越,“分割生产与产业内贸易:一个基于DS垄断竞争的模型”,《世界经济》,2008年第5期
[6]高越,高峰,“产品内贸易与外商直接投资的关系”,《数量经济与技术经济研究》,2006年第8期
[7]海闻,赵达,“国际生产与贸易格局的新变化”,《国际经济评论》,2007年第1-2期
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