中国消费税的经济效应研究
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摘要
消费税因其征税范围的选择性、征收方法的灵活性、税率设计的差别性及税收负担的可转嫁性等特点,成为中外学者普遍认同的“良税”,同时也成为各国政府重要的宏观调控工具之一。我国现行的消费税是1994年税制改革时,在部分产品税和特殊消费税的基础上设立的,体现国家对某些产品进行特殊调节的一个税种。自1994年设立以来,为了更好的发挥消费税的宏观调控职能,我国政府对消费税进行了若干次调整,其中调整幅度较大的如2006年的消费税全面改革和2009年的消费税《暂行条例》和《实施细则》的重新修订等。我国消费税的历次调整会产生何种经济效应?本文力图从微观和宏观层面,从效率和公平的视角,全面考察消费税在中国实践中的经济效应,以期为我国消费税的后续改革提供参考依据。
全文共分10章,主要由理论和实践分析、实证检验和综合评价及政策优化三大部分组成。其中,第1章是导论,第2章和第3章是对消费税的基本理论及实践进行的分析,第4-9章是实证分析部分,第4-7章是从微观层面实证分析消费税的经济效应,第8和第9章是从宏观层面实证分析消费税的经济效应。其中第4-8章是基于经济效率的视角研究消费税的效应,第9章是基于公平的视角研究消费税的收入再分配效应。第10章是对消费税的经济效应进行综合评价及政策优化的建议。具体来看：
第1章,导论。本章主要介绍本文的选题背景、意义；对国内外学者的研究文献进行了回顾及简要评述；说明了本文的研究方法及结构安排；阐述了本文可能的创新点和存在的不足。
第2章,消费税经济效应的一般分析。本章主要运用规范分析法,首先对消费税做了一般性分析,包括消费税的涵义界定、设计目标等。其次通过对消费税机制运行的分析,揭示消费税经济效应的内在机理,为后文的实证检验提供理论依据。最后分析了不同市场条件下的消费税税负归宿问题。
第3章,消费税的实践分析。本章首先从中国消费税的历史沿革及发展变动趋势两个方面分析了我国消费税的实践,以确定实证检验中国消费税经济效应的实践依据。然后通过对消费税的国际比较为我国消费税的不断完善提供可鉴之处。
第4章,消费税归宿的实证分析。本章主要是从供给弹性和需求弹性的角度探讨消费税的税负归宿问题。首先构建测算供给弹性和需求弹性的理论模型,然后使用居民的消费数据和企业的投入产出数据,实证分析了消费品的供求弹性,并以此为基础测算了我国消费税在生产者和消费者之间的分摊比例。
第5章,消费税对企业产出影响的实证分析。本章沿着消费税政策变化→应税消费品价格变化→企业实际可得价格变化→企业利润(收入、产出)变化的思路,在第4章构建的供给函数模型的基础上,引入消费税变动因素,通过数值模拟分析了消费税政策变动对企业短期产品供给的影响,然后通过构建多变量VAR模型,实证分析了消费税政策变动对企业长期销售收入(利润)的动态影响。
第6章,消费税对消费影响的实证分析。本章沿着消费税政策变化→应税消费品价格变化→消费需求变化的思路,通过引入CES居民消费效用函数和C-D生产函数,构建了含税收变化因素的消费效应模型,实证考察了我国历次消费税政策变化的消费效应。
第7章,消费税矫正负外部性效应的实证分析。本章沿着消费税政策变化→消费品价格变化→消费需求变化→负外部性变化的思路,根据庇古税的思路,构建有关消费税矫正负外部性效应的理论模型,然后在第6章消费税消费效应实证分析结果的基础上,模拟分析了消费税矫正负外部性效应。
第8章,消费税经济增长效应实证分析。本章从宏观层面的经济效率角度,揭示了消费税与经济增长之间的关系。首先在巴罗内生经济增长模型的基础上,引入消费税因素,构建了包括家庭、厂商和政府三部门经济增长模型,在此基础上,通过Matlab软件数值模拟了消费税税率与经济增长率之间的相关关系。然后通过构建多变量的VAR模型实证检验了消费税政策变化与经济增长之间的动态变化关系。
第9章,消费税收入再分配效应的实证分析。本章基于宏观层面的社会公平视角,揭示了消费税对居民收入差距的调节作用。首先在Kakwani(1977)模型的基础上,构建了衡量消费税收入再分配效应的理论模型。然后通过K指数和平均税率的计算,从整体的角度出发,实证考察了消费税的收入再分配效应；从结构的角度出发,分税目的考察了卷烟、酒、汽车和成品油消费税的收入再分配效应。
第10章,消费税经济效应的综合评价与制度优化。首先归纳概括了中国消费税的实际经济效应,为消费税的优化提供客观依据。然后根据消费税经济效应的实证分析结果,阐述了中国消费税进一步改革的目标及优化的思路。
通过对已有研究的拓展和深化,本文可能进行了以下几点创新性探索：
1.理论分析的拓展性
消费税政策变动通过对微观经济主体的生产行为和消费行为产生影响,进而影响到宏观经济的运行,这是一个复杂的过程。本文结合微观经济学理论,宏观调控理论、税收经济学等理论工具,以效用函数模型、内生经济增长模型及IS-LM模型为基础,将消费税变量引入到基本模型中,逻辑推导出了消费税经济效应的作用流程、作用机理,从而创建了消费税经济效应的理论框架。具体体现在：消费税政策变动通过价格传导机制对生产者和消费者产生收入效应和替代效应,进而对生产者的生产行为和消费者的消费行为产生影响,其中消费行为的改变又会对某些消费过程中产生的负外部性起到一定的影响,体现了消费税的负外部性矫正效应。微观经济主体的生产行为、消费行为、投资行为和储蓄行为的改变会直接或间接的影响宏观经济的运行,对经济增长产生一定的影响。同时消费税的征收和使用又会对居民间的收入差距起到一定的调节作用,形成消费税的收入再分配效应。
2.理论模型的拓展性
(1)拓展了消费税的消费效应模型。首先拓展了消费税对居民生活消费效应模型。关于消费税对消费的影响,国内外学者都做了大量研究,但都是通过构建线性支出系统模型,从需求弹性角度讨论应税消费品价格变化对需求量的影响。本文在构建消费税消费效应模型时,选用最具一般性的CES(常替代弹性)效用函数,探讨消费税政策变动对人们消费选择的影响。其次,拓展了消费税对企业生产用应税消费品的生产函数模型。本文在基本的生产函数C-D生产函数的基础上,把应税消费品作为中间生产要素引入到生产函数中,考察了在消费税政策变化的情况下,企业对中间投入品的消费选择。
(2)拓展了含消费税的供给函数模型。本文在基本的企业生产函数的基础上,通过推导出企业供给函数模型后引入消费税的变动因素,为探讨消费税对企业生产的影响提供理论依据。
(3)拓展了含消费税因素的经济增长模型。学界对经济增长问题的研究较多,最具代表性的是巴罗的经济增长模型。但有关消费税对经济增长影响的研究文献较少,本文在巴罗的内生经济增长模型的基础上,引入消费税因素,通过模型的推导,得出消费税与经济增长率之间关系的理论模型。
3.实证研究的拓展性
本文在理论分析的基础上,借助计量工具和中国的经验数据,从不同的视角实证研究了消费税的经济效应。
(1)实证研究了消费税在生产者和消费者之间的归宿问题。已有文献对消费税归宿问题的实证研究鲜为少见,仅有的几篇都是假设消费税完全由消费者承担,从需求弹性的角度研究消费税在不同收入水平消费者之间的分布。本文从需求弹性和供给弹性两个角度,实证分析了消费税在生产者和消费者之间的分摊比例。结果发现不同消费税税目的税负在生产者和消费者之间的分摊比例不同,烟、酒消费税的大部分税负由消费者承担,而汽车和成品油消费税的税负在生产者和消费者之间的分担比例大致相当。
(2)实证分析了消费税对企业产出的影响。已有文献有关消费税对企业产出的影响分析,都是使用定性分析方法,定性研究虽然能够分析出影响的方向,但不能分析出影响的大小。本文借助于推导的含消费税的供给模型,实证分析了消费税政策变化对企业产出的影响。同时使用多变量VAR模型的脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析了消费税政策变动对企业销售收入影响的动态变化过程。研究结果表明消费税对不同应税生产企业的影响呈现差异性,卷烟消费税对卷烟生产企业的短期调控是有效的,而酒消费税对酒生产企业的调控效果不佳。成品油消费税对石化生产企业调控效果显著,而汽车消费税对汽车生产企业的影响体现在产品的结构调节而非总量控制。
(3)实证考察了消费税的消费效应。国内学者有关消费税改革对消费影响的分析,基本都采用规范性研究,缺乏实证检验。本文在CES效用函数理论模型的基础上,使用中国经验数据和计量分析工具,实证考察了历次消费税政策变动对应税消费品的消费影响。实证结果显示,卷烟消费税对卷烟消费的调控效果较为明显,而酒消费税对酒消费的调控力度较小。汽车消费税对不同排量汽车消费的调控效果呈现差异性,相对于中高排量的汽车而言,微型汽车的消费对消费税的变动不敏感。成品油消费税对企业生产用成品油调控效果显著,而对居民生活用成品油的调控失效。
(4)实证考察了消费税矫正负外部性效应。学界对我国现行消费税的负外部性矫正效应的研究较少,本文推进了这一研究,在消费税消费效应实证结果的基础上,通过负外部性衡量指标的选择,实证考察了消费税对负外部性的矫正效应,研究结果表明,我国的消费税在经过若干次调整后,其对负外部性的矫正效应日益凸显。除了酒消费税的矫正效应相对较弱且不具有连续性外,其他的税目,尤其是汽车消费税和成品油消费税的负外部性矫正效果较为显著,我国消费税的环保效应日益凸显。
(5)动态模拟了消费税对经济增长的影响。近年来,国内采用模拟分析方法研究的文献逐渐增多,但对消费税与经济增长关系进行模拟分析的文献较少。本文采用Matlab软件动态模拟了消费税税率与经济增长率之间的相关关系,结果显示消费税与经济增长是正向相关的,且消费税对经济增长的影响具有时期性。
(6)通过K指数和平均税率的计算,实证研究了消费税的收入再分配效应。从整体的角度出发,通过计算消费税的K指数和平均税率,实证考察了消费税的收入再分配效应,结果表明,从2007年起我国的消费税具有累进性,能对居民间收入差距起到一定的调节作用。从结构的角度出发,分税目的考察了卷烟、酒、汽车和成品油消费税的收入再分配效应,结果显示,我国的卷烟和酒消费税一直是累退的,恶化了居民间收入差距,而汽车和成品油消费税一直是累进的,有利于缩小居民间的收入差距。
4.优化措施的应用性
(1)根据实证检验结果和我国的政策实践,提出我国消费税改革的短期和中长期政策目标。短期目标为消费税的政策制定要着重发挥消费税对经济主体的调节作用,同时兼顾其对居民收入差距的二次调节效应。即进一步矫正消费者消费的需求偏差,引导人们树立健康合理的消费理念,正确核定“污染性”消费品的外部成本,不断完善环境性消费税的设计。中长期目标为消费税改革要有利于我国经济和社会的可持续性发展。要实现由有限型消费税向中间型消费税的转变,构建“绿色”消费税的同时增加对奢侈性消费品和消费行为的课税内容,充分发挥消费税的收入差距调节职能,实现消费税的经济、公平双重调控功能。
(2)从长期视角,提出了我国应逐渐提高卷烟消费税的税率,实现“寓禁于征”；逐渐提高我国白酒消费税从量税额并按价格设置差别税率征收从价税。
Because of the alternative of range of collection, the flexible way of collecting, the difference of the tax rate and the transferable of the tax burden, the excise taxation is called the "good taxation" by the scholars. At the same time, the excise taxation is the important tool of macroscopic adjusting control of the government. The excise taxation in China was established in the tax reform in1994, and was on the base of partial product-tax and special excise taxation. It represented the government's special adjustability on some special goods. Since it was established in1994, in order to developing the excise taxation function of microscopic adjustments, the government had carried out a number of adjustments. What economic effects of adjustments can produce? In order to providing reference for the following-up reform, this paper explored real economic effects of excise taxation from the angle of micro and macro, efficiency and justice.
The text is divided into ten chapters, including theoretical and practical analysis, empirical test and the optimization method of policy. The first chapter is introduction. The chapter2and3are the basic theory of excise. From the fourth chapter to the ninth chapter are the part of empirical analysis. The tenth chapter is the comprehensive evaluation and optimization proposals on the excise.
Chapter1is the introduction. This chapter covers describing the background and meaning of topics, reviewing domestic and foreign literature, introducing to the methods of study and the structure arrangement, pointing out the innovation and weakness of this paper.
Chapter2is the general analysis of the economic effects of the excise. Using the normative analysis method, we firstly have a general analysis of the excise, including the definition, target and so on. Secondly, we analyses the process of excise system run, reveals the internal mechanism of economic effect of excise, which provide the basis for empirical analysis. Finally, we analyze the tax burden on the different market conditions.
Chapter3is the practice analysis of the excise. We firstly analyze the practice of the excise in China from the history and development trend. And then we have an international comparison of excise in order to provide reference for the continuous improvement of the excise.
Chapter4is the empirical analysis of excise tax burden. The chapter explores the tax burden from the perspective of supply and demand elasticity. At first, we construct the theoretical models to measure the supply and demand elasticity. And then we use the consumption data and enterprise of input and output data to analysis the elasticity. On the basis of the empirical analysis, we estimate the share proportion of tax burden between the producers and consumers.
Chapter5is the empirical analysis of the influence of enterprise output about excise. This chapter analyzes alone the thought of excise taxation policy changing→price changing→the profits changing. On the basis of introducing the change of excise taxation into the model of supply function, we analyze the short-term effect of supply on the change of excise taxation policy through numerical simulation. And then we use the VAR model analyze the long-term dynamic effect of profit on the changes of excise taxation policy.
Chapter6is the empirical analysis of the consumption effect about the excise. This chapter analyzes alone the thought of excise taxation policy changing→price changing→demand changing. We construct the consumption effect model which contenting the changing of excise taxation through introducing the CES consumer utility and the C-D production function. And then we analyze the consumption effect of the excise by empirical study.
Chapter7is the empirical analysis of correcting negative externalities effect about the excise. This chapter analyzes alone the thought of excise taxation policy changing→price changing→the negative externalities changing. We firstly construct the correcting negative externality model about the excise according to pigou tax. And then we simulate the correction negative externalities effect about the excise on the base of the result of the consumption in chapter6.
Chapter8is the empirical analysis of the economic growth effect of the excise. This chapter reveals the relationship between the economic growth and the excise from the macroscopic level of efficiency. At first, we added the excise into the endogenous economic growth model and set up a new economic growth model with three sector including families, enterprises and government. And then we simulated the relationship between the excise and economic with Matlab software. Second we constructed the VAR model to empirically test the dynamic relationship between the excise and economic growth.
Chapter9is the empirical analysis of the income redistribution effect of excise. First we constructed the theory model to measure the excise tax's income redistribution effect on the base of Kakwani (1977). Then by calculating the K index and the average tax rate, we empirically test the income redistribution effect of excise from an overall point of view and from the angle of structure.
Chapter10gave the suggestions of the optimization of about the excise. We summary the economic effects of the excise which is severed as a basis for policy recommendations. Second, we expounded the further reform goal and the optimization of the excise according the empirical results of the economic effects of the excise.
Through an expandedness and in-depth study on economic effects of excise, this paper may make a number of innovative explorations in the following aspects:
1. The in-depth of theoretical analyses
This is a complicated process that the changes of excise impacted the micro economy, and then affect the operation of the macro economy. We introduced the excise taxation into the basic models that combined with the theory of microeconomics and macroeconomics regulation, endogenous growth and IS-LM model. Through these theoretical models, we deduced the action process and the mechanism of the economic effect of excise, and then we set up the theoretical framework of excise's economic effects. Specific reflects in:the changes of excise taxation policy generate the income effect and substitution effect between the producers and consumers through the price mechanism. These have an impact on the behavior of producers and consumers. The changes of consumers'behaviors would affect the negative externality that was generated in the process of consumption. These could reflect the negative externalities correction effect of excise. The changes of production, consumption, investment and saving behavior would directly or indirectly affect the operation of the macro economy, and produce certain effect to economic growth. At the same time, the collection and the use of excise could regulate the income gap, and have the income distribution effects.
2. The in-depth of theoretical models
(1) This paper expanded the consumption effect model of the excise. First, this paper set up the consumption effect model of the excise by choosing the most general CES utility function, and discussed the influence of the consumption choice with the changes of excise taxation policy. Second, this paper expanded the production function model of the excise by choosing the C-D production function, and discussed the consumption choice of the taxable goods as an intermediate factor of production, with the changes of excise taxation policy.
(2) This paper expanded the supply function model of containing the excise. Literatures from the point of view of the tax to research enterprise output and supply are few:Based on the based of enterprise production function, this paper deduced the supply function model that including the factor of excise and to provide the theory basis for exploring the influence of excise tax on the enterprise production.
(3) This paper expanded the economic growth model of including excise. The study on the economic growth is more, one of the most representative is the Barrow's model of economic growth. This paper introduced excise on the based of the Barrow's model of economic growth. Through the deduction of the model, we draw the theoretical model of relationship between the excise and the economic growth rate.
3. Depth of empirical research
On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper empirically studies economic effect of excise from different perspective using the experience data of China and measurement tools.
(1) This paper empirically studied the excise burden between the producers and consumers. From two angles of supply and demand elasticity, this paper empirically analyzed the share proportion of excise burden between the producers and consumers. The results found that different excise taxable items of tax burden share different proportion between producers and consumers. Most of the cigarette and alcohol excise burden are bearing by consumers, while the automobile and fuel excise burden are bearing roughly equal between producers and consumers.
(2) This paper empirically analyzed the impact of excise on the enterprise output. Based on the derivation supply model that containing the excise, this paper empirically analyzed the effect of enterprise output when the changes of excise taxation policy. At the same time using the impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis, this paper analyzed the dynamic process of enterprise sales revenue, with the changing of the excise taxation policy. The results show that different influences on different taxable production. Cigarette excise on cigarette production enterprise of regulation is effective, while alcohol excise on alcohol production enterprise of regulation is ineffective. Fuel excise on petrochemical production enterprise can rise to a short-term effect, and the influence of the automobile excise on auto enterprise reflected in adjusting the structure of the product, not to control the total amount.
(3) This paper empirically researches the consumption effect on excise. When the domestic scholars'studies the consumption effect of the excise's reform, most of them used the normative research, that lack of empirical test. Based on the theoretical model of CES utility function, this paper used the experience data and metrological tools, and empirically investigated the consumption effect on the taxable goods, with the changing of excise. The result showed the control effect of cigarette excise taxes on cigarette consumption is more obvious, while the smaller control efforts of the alcohol excise tax on alcohol consumption. Vehicle excise showing differences in the regulation effect of the different displacement car consumption, relative to the high displacement vehicles, the consumption of micro-car is not sensitive to changes of excise. Fuel excise was effective when to control the enterprises'consumption, but was failure when to control the consumption of customers.
(4) This paper empirically inquired into the correction of negative, external effects of excise. Base on the empirical results of the chapter6and the selection index, this paper inquired into the correction of negative external effect of excise. The result showed that after a number of adjustments, the correction of negative external effects of excise had become more prominent. In addition to the corrective effect of the alcohol excise was relatively weak and did not have continuity, the other taxable item, in particular the corrective effects of the vehicle excise and fuel excise were more significant, the environment effects of the excise in China has become increasing prominent.
(5)This paper dynamically simulated the economic growth effect of excise. Using the Matlab software, this paper dynamically simulated the relationship between the excise tax rate and economic growth rate. The results showed that the excise and economic growth is positively correlated, and the influence on economic growth had a period.
(6)This paper empirically study the income redistribution effect of excise by the K index and the of average tax rate. From an overall perspective, the excise in China became progressive and can play a regulatory role in the income gap since2007. From the perspective of structure, we studied the effect of redistribution of the taxable items, and found that the cigarette and alcohol excise were always regressive, deterioration of the income gap between residents, while the vehicle and fuel excise were progressive, conducive to narrowing the income gap among the residents.
4. The applicability of optimization measures
(1)According to the empirical results and policy practice, this paper put forward the short-term and long-term goals of the excise tax reform. The short-term goals for excise's reform are to focuses on the economic regulation function and taking into account its regulation effects on the income gap between residents. That is correcting the demand deviation of consumer, guiding people to establish a health consumption concept, and constantly improving the design of the excise tax in order to improve the environment. The long-term goals for excise's reform should be helpful to the economic and social sustainable development. The limited excise system should transform to the intermediate excise system, we should build the "green" excise, and at the same time increase the luxury tax in order to play the redistribution function of excise.
(2) From a long-term perspective, this paper suggested that the cigarette excise rate should be increase gradually, in order to achieve "prohibition". At the same time, this paper suggested the specific tax of alcohol excise should be increased gradually, and the ad valorem tax should be set differential rates according the price.
全文共分10章,主要由理论和实践分析、实证检验和综合评价及政策优化三大部分组成。其中,第1章是导论,第2章和第3章是对消费税的基本理论及实践进行的分析,第4-9章是实证分析部分,第4-7章是从微观层面实证分析消费税的经济效应,第8和第9章是从宏观层面实证分析消费税的经济效应。其中第4-8章是基于经济效率的视角研究消费税的效应,第9章是基于公平的视角研究消费税的收入再分配效应。第10章是对消费税的经济效应进行综合评价及政策优化的建议。具体来看：
第1章,导论。本章主要介绍本文的选题背景、意义；对国内外学者的研究文献进行了回顾及简要评述；说明了本文的研究方法及结构安排；阐述了本文可能的创新点和存在的不足。
第2章,消费税经济效应的一般分析。本章主要运用规范分析法,首先对消费税做了一般性分析,包括消费税的涵义界定、设计目标等。其次通过对消费税机制运行的分析,揭示消费税经济效应的内在机理,为后文的实证检验提供理论依据。最后分析了不同市场条件下的消费税税负归宿问题。
第3章,消费税的实践分析。本章首先从中国消费税的历史沿革及发展变动趋势两个方面分析了我国消费税的实践,以确定实证检验中国消费税经济效应的实践依据。然后通过对消费税的国际比较为我国消费税的不断完善提供可鉴之处。
第4章,消费税归宿的实证分析。本章主要是从供给弹性和需求弹性的角度探讨消费税的税负归宿问题。首先构建测算供给弹性和需求弹性的理论模型,然后使用居民的消费数据和企业的投入产出数据,实证分析了消费品的供求弹性,并以此为基础测算了我国消费税在生产者和消费者之间的分摊比例。
第5章,消费税对企业产出影响的实证分析。本章沿着消费税政策变化→应税消费品价格变化→企业实际可得价格变化→企业利润(收入、产出)变化的思路,在第4章构建的供给函数模型的基础上,引入消费税变动因素,通过数值模拟分析了消费税政策变动对企业短期产品供给的影响,然后通过构建多变量VAR模型,实证分析了消费税政策变动对企业长期销售收入(利润)的动态影响。
第6章,消费税对消费影响的实证分析。本章沿着消费税政策变化→应税消费品价格变化→消费需求变化的思路,通过引入CES居民消费效用函数和C-D生产函数,构建了含税收变化因素的消费效应模型,实证考察了我国历次消费税政策变化的消费效应。
第7章,消费税矫正负外部性效应的实证分析。本章沿着消费税政策变化→消费品价格变化→消费需求变化→负外部性变化的思路,根据庇古税的思路,构建有关消费税矫正负外部性效应的理论模型,然后在第6章消费税消费效应实证分析结果的基础上,模拟分析了消费税矫正负外部性效应。
第8章,消费税经济增长效应实证分析。本章从宏观层面的经济效率角度,揭示了消费税与经济增长之间的关系。首先在巴罗内生经济增长模型的基础上,引入消费税因素,构建了包括家庭、厂商和政府三部门经济增长模型,在此基础上,通过Matlab软件数值模拟了消费税税率与经济增长率之间的相关关系。然后通过构建多变量的VAR模型实证检验了消费税政策变化与经济增长之间的动态变化关系。
第9章,消费税收入再分配效应的实证分析。本章基于宏观层面的社会公平视角,揭示了消费税对居民收入差距的调节作用。首先在Kakwani(1977)模型的基础上,构建了衡量消费税收入再分配效应的理论模型。然后通过K指数和平均税率的计算,从整体的角度出发,实证考察了消费税的收入再分配效应；从结构的角度出发,分税目的考察了卷烟、酒、汽车和成品油消费税的收入再分配效应。
第10章,消费税经济效应的综合评价与制度优化。首先归纳概括了中国消费税的实际经济效应,为消费税的优化提供客观依据。然后根据消费税经济效应的实证分析结果,阐述了中国消费税进一步改革的目标及优化的思路。
通过对已有研究的拓展和深化,本文可能进行了以下几点创新性探索：
1.理论分析的拓展性
消费税政策变动通过对微观经济主体的生产行为和消费行为产生影响,进而影响到宏观经济的运行,这是一个复杂的过程。本文结合微观经济学理论,宏观调控理论、税收经济学等理论工具,以效用函数模型、内生经济增长模型及IS-LM模型为基础,将消费税变量引入到基本模型中,逻辑推导出了消费税经济效应的作用流程、作用机理,从而创建了消费税经济效应的理论框架。具体体现在：消费税政策变动通过价格传导机制对生产者和消费者产生收入效应和替代效应,进而对生产者的生产行为和消费者的消费行为产生影响,其中消费行为的改变又会对某些消费过程中产生的负外部性起到一定的影响,体现了消费税的负外部性矫正效应。微观经济主体的生产行为、消费行为、投资行为和储蓄行为的改变会直接或间接的影响宏观经济的运行,对经济增长产生一定的影响。同时消费税的征收和使用又会对居民间的收入差距起到一定的调节作用,形成消费税的收入再分配效应。
2.理论模型的拓展性
(1)拓展了消费税的消费效应模型。首先拓展了消费税对居民生活消费效应模型。关于消费税对消费的影响,国内外学者都做了大量研究,但都是通过构建线性支出系统模型,从需求弹性角度讨论应税消费品价格变化对需求量的影响。本文在构建消费税消费效应模型时,选用最具一般性的CES(常替代弹性)效用函数,探讨消费税政策变动对人们消费选择的影响。其次,拓展了消费税对企业生产用应税消费品的生产函数模型。本文在基本的生产函数C-D生产函数的基础上,把应税消费品作为中间生产要素引入到生产函数中,考察了在消费税政策变化的情况下,企业对中间投入品的消费选择。
(2)拓展了含消费税的供给函数模型。本文在基本的企业生产函数的基础上,通过推导出企业供给函数模型后引入消费税的变动因素,为探讨消费税对企业生产的影响提供理论依据。
(3)拓展了含消费税因素的经济增长模型。学界对经济增长问题的研究较多,最具代表性的是巴罗的经济增长模型。但有关消费税对经济增长影响的研究文献较少,本文在巴罗的内生经济增长模型的基础上,引入消费税因素,通过模型的推导,得出消费税与经济增长率之间关系的理论模型。
3.实证研究的拓展性
本文在理论分析的基础上,借助计量工具和中国的经验数据,从不同的视角实证研究了消费税的经济效应。
(1)实证研究了消费税在生产者和消费者之间的归宿问题。已有文献对消费税归宿问题的实证研究鲜为少见,仅有的几篇都是假设消费税完全由消费者承担,从需求弹性的角度研究消费税在不同收入水平消费者之间的分布。本文从需求弹性和供给弹性两个角度,实证分析了消费税在生产者和消费者之间的分摊比例。结果发现不同消费税税目的税负在生产者和消费者之间的分摊比例不同,烟、酒消费税的大部分税负由消费者承担,而汽车和成品油消费税的税负在生产者和消费者之间的分担比例大致相当。
(2)实证分析了消费税对企业产出的影响。已有文献有关消费税对企业产出的影响分析,都是使用定性分析方法,定性研究虽然能够分析出影响的方向,但不能分析出影响的大小。本文借助于推导的含消费税的供给模型,实证分析了消费税政策变化对企业产出的影响。同时使用多变量VAR模型的脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析了消费税政策变动对企业销售收入影响的动态变化过程。研究结果表明消费税对不同应税生产企业的影响呈现差异性,卷烟消费税对卷烟生产企业的短期调控是有效的,而酒消费税对酒生产企业的调控效果不佳。成品油消费税对石化生产企业调控效果显著,而汽车消费税对汽车生产企业的影响体现在产品的结构调节而非总量控制。
(3)实证考察了消费税的消费效应。国内学者有关消费税改革对消费影响的分析,基本都采用规范性研究,缺乏实证检验。本文在CES效用函数理论模型的基础上,使用中国经验数据和计量分析工具,实证考察了历次消费税政策变动对应税消费品的消费影响。实证结果显示,卷烟消费税对卷烟消费的调控效果较为明显,而酒消费税对酒消费的调控力度较小。汽车消费税对不同排量汽车消费的调控效果呈现差异性,相对于中高排量的汽车而言,微型汽车的消费对消费税的变动不敏感。成品油消费税对企业生产用成品油调控效果显著,而对居民生活用成品油的调控失效。
(4)实证考察了消费税矫正负外部性效应。学界对我国现行消费税的负外部性矫正效应的研究较少,本文推进了这一研究,在消费税消费效应实证结果的基础上,通过负外部性衡量指标的选择,实证考察了消费税对负外部性的矫正效应,研究结果表明,我国的消费税在经过若干次调整后,其对负外部性的矫正效应日益凸显。除了酒消费税的矫正效应相对较弱且不具有连续性外,其他的税目,尤其是汽车消费税和成品油消费税的负外部性矫正效果较为显著,我国消费税的环保效应日益凸显。
(5)动态模拟了消费税对经济增长的影响。近年来,国内采用模拟分析方法研究的文献逐渐增多,但对消费税与经济增长关系进行模拟分析的文献较少。本文采用Matlab软件动态模拟了消费税税率与经济增长率之间的相关关系,结果显示消费税与经济增长是正向相关的,且消费税对经济增长的影响具有时期性。
(6)通过K指数和平均税率的计算,实证研究了消费税的收入再分配效应。从整体的角度出发,通过计算消费税的K指数和平均税率,实证考察了消费税的收入再分配效应,结果表明,从2007年起我国的消费税具有累进性,能对居民间收入差距起到一定的调节作用。从结构的角度出发,分税目的考察了卷烟、酒、汽车和成品油消费税的收入再分配效应,结果显示,我国的卷烟和酒消费税一直是累退的,恶化了居民间收入差距,而汽车和成品油消费税一直是累进的,有利于缩小居民间的收入差距。
4.优化措施的应用性
(1)根据实证检验结果和我国的政策实践,提出我国消费税改革的短期和中长期政策目标。短期目标为消费税的政策制定要着重发挥消费税对经济主体的调节作用,同时兼顾其对居民收入差距的二次调节效应。即进一步矫正消费者消费的需求偏差,引导人们树立健康合理的消费理念,正确核定“污染性”消费品的外部成本,不断完善环境性消费税的设计。中长期目标为消费税改革要有利于我国经济和社会的可持续性发展。要实现由有限型消费税向中间型消费税的转变,构建“绿色”消费税的同时增加对奢侈性消费品和消费行为的课税内容,充分发挥消费税的收入差距调节职能,实现消费税的经济、公平双重调控功能。
(2)从长期视角,提出了我国应逐渐提高卷烟消费税的税率,实现“寓禁于征”；逐渐提高我国白酒消费税从量税额并按价格设置差别税率征收从价税。
Because of the alternative of range of collection, the flexible way of collecting, the difference of the tax rate and the transferable of the tax burden, the excise taxation is called the "good taxation" by the scholars. At the same time, the excise taxation is the important tool of macroscopic adjusting control of the government. The excise taxation in China was established in the tax reform in1994, and was on the base of partial product-tax and special excise taxation. It represented the government's special adjustability on some special goods. Since it was established in1994, in order to developing the excise taxation function of microscopic adjustments, the government had carried out a number of adjustments. What economic effects of adjustments can produce? In order to providing reference for the following-up reform, this paper explored real economic effects of excise taxation from the angle of micro and macro, efficiency and justice.
The text is divided into ten chapters, including theoretical and practical analysis, empirical test and the optimization method of policy. The first chapter is introduction. The chapter2and3are the basic theory of excise. From the fourth chapter to the ninth chapter are the part of empirical analysis. The tenth chapter is the comprehensive evaluation and optimization proposals on the excise.
Chapter1is the introduction. This chapter covers describing the background and meaning of topics, reviewing domestic and foreign literature, introducing to the methods of study and the structure arrangement, pointing out the innovation and weakness of this paper.
Chapter2is the general analysis of the economic effects of the excise. Using the normative analysis method, we firstly have a general analysis of the excise, including the definition, target and so on. Secondly, we analyses the process of excise system run, reveals the internal mechanism of economic effect of excise, which provide the basis for empirical analysis. Finally, we analyze the tax burden on the different market conditions.
Chapter3is the practice analysis of the excise. We firstly analyze the practice of the excise in China from the history and development trend. And then we have an international comparison of excise in order to provide reference for the continuous improvement of the excise.
Chapter4is the empirical analysis of excise tax burden. The chapter explores the tax burden from the perspective of supply and demand elasticity. At first, we construct the theoretical models to measure the supply and demand elasticity. And then we use the consumption data and enterprise of input and output data to analysis the elasticity. On the basis of the empirical analysis, we estimate the share proportion of tax burden between the producers and consumers.
Chapter5is the empirical analysis of the influence of enterprise output about excise. This chapter analyzes alone the thought of excise taxation policy changing→price changing→the profits changing. On the basis of introducing the change of excise taxation into the model of supply function, we analyze the short-term effect of supply on the change of excise taxation policy through numerical simulation. And then we use the VAR model analyze the long-term dynamic effect of profit on the changes of excise taxation policy.
Chapter6is the empirical analysis of the consumption effect about the excise. This chapter analyzes alone the thought of excise taxation policy changing→price changing→demand changing. We construct the consumption effect model which contenting the changing of excise taxation through introducing the CES consumer utility and the C-D production function. And then we analyze the consumption effect of the excise by empirical study.
Chapter7is the empirical analysis of correcting negative externalities effect about the excise. This chapter analyzes alone the thought of excise taxation policy changing→price changing→the negative externalities changing. We firstly construct the correcting negative externality model about the excise according to pigou tax. And then we simulate the correction negative externalities effect about the excise on the base of the result of the consumption in chapter6.
Chapter8is the empirical analysis of the economic growth effect of the excise. This chapter reveals the relationship between the economic growth and the excise from the macroscopic level of efficiency. At first, we added the excise into the endogenous economic growth model and set up a new economic growth model with three sector including families, enterprises and government. And then we simulated the relationship between the excise and economic with Matlab software. Second we constructed the VAR model to empirically test the dynamic relationship between the excise and economic growth.
Chapter9is the empirical analysis of the income redistribution effect of excise. First we constructed the theory model to measure the excise tax's income redistribution effect on the base of Kakwani (1977). Then by calculating the K index and the average tax rate, we empirically test the income redistribution effect of excise from an overall point of view and from the angle of structure.
Chapter10gave the suggestions of the optimization of about the excise. We summary the economic effects of the excise which is severed as a basis for policy recommendations. Second, we expounded the further reform goal and the optimization of the excise according the empirical results of the economic effects of the excise.
Through an expandedness and in-depth study on economic effects of excise, this paper may make a number of innovative explorations in the following aspects:
1. The in-depth of theoretical analyses
This is a complicated process that the changes of excise impacted the micro economy, and then affect the operation of the macro economy. We introduced the excise taxation into the basic models that combined with the theory of microeconomics and macroeconomics regulation, endogenous growth and IS-LM model. Through these theoretical models, we deduced the action process and the mechanism of the economic effect of excise, and then we set up the theoretical framework of excise's economic effects. Specific reflects in:the changes of excise taxation policy generate the income effect and substitution effect between the producers and consumers through the price mechanism. These have an impact on the behavior of producers and consumers. The changes of consumers'behaviors would affect the negative externality that was generated in the process of consumption. These could reflect the negative externalities correction effect of excise. The changes of production, consumption, investment and saving behavior would directly or indirectly affect the operation of the macro economy, and produce certain effect to economic growth. At the same time, the collection and the use of excise could regulate the income gap, and have the income distribution effects.
2. The in-depth of theoretical models
(1) This paper expanded the consumption effect model of the excise. First, this paper set up the consumption effect model of the excise by choosing the most general CES utility function, and discussed the influence of the consumption choice with the changes of excise taxation policy. Second, this paper expanded the production function model of the excise by choosing the C-D production function, and discussed the consumption choice of the taxable goods as an intermediate factor of production, with the changes of excise taxation policy.
(2) This paper expanded the supply function model of containing the excise. Literatures from the point of view of the tax to research enterprise output and supply are few:Based on the based of enterprise production function, this paper deduced the supply function model that including the factor of excise and to provide the theory basis for exploring the influence of excise tax on the enterprise production.
(3) This paper expanded the economic growth model of including excise. The study on the economic growth is more, one of the most representative is the Barrow's model of economic growth. This paper introduced excise on the based of the Barrow's model of economic growth. Through the deduction of the model, we draw the theoretical model of relationship between the excise and the economic growth rate.
3. Depth of empirical research
On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper empirically studies economic effect of excise from different perspective using the experience data of China and measurement tools.
(1) This paper empirically studied the excise burden between the producers and consumers. From two angles of supply and demand elasticity, this paper empirically analyzed the share proportion of excise burden between the producers and consumers. The results found that different excise taxable items of tax burden share different proportion between producers and consumers. Most of the cigarette and alcohol excise burden are bearing by consumers, while the automobile and fuel excise burden are bearing roughly equal between producers and consumers.
(2) This paper empirically analyzed the impact of excise on the enterprise output. Based on the derivation supply model that containing the excise, this paper empirically analyzed the effect of enterprise output when the changes of excise taxation policy. At the same time using the impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis, this paper analyzed the dynamic process of enterprise sales revenue, with the changing of the excise taxation policy. The results show that different influences on different taxable production. Cigarette excise on cigarette production enterprise of regulation is effective, while alcohol excise on alcohol production enterprise of regulation is ineffective. Fuel excise on petrochemical production enterprise can rise to a short-term effect, and the influence of the automobile excise on auto enterprise reflected in adjusting the structure of the product, not to control the total amount.
(3) This paper empirically researches the consumption effect on excise. When the domestic scholars'studies the consumption effect of the excise's reform, most of them used the normative research, that lack of empirical test. Based on the theoretical model of CES utility function, this paper used the experience data and metrological tools, and empirically investigated the consumption effect on the taxable goods, with the changing of excise. The result showed the control effect of cigarette excise taxes on cigarette consumption is more obvious, while the smaller control efforts of the alcohol excise tax on alcohol consumption. Vehicle excise showing differences in the regulation effect of the different displacement car consumption, relative to the high displacement vehicles, the consumption of micro-car is not sensitive to changes of excise. Fuel excise was effective when to control the enterprises'consumption, but was failure when to control the consumption of customers.
(4) This paper empirically inquired into the correction of negative, external effects of excise. Base on the empirical results of the chapter6and the selection index, this paper inquired into the correction of negative external effect of excise. The result showed that after a number of adjustments, the correction of negative external effects of excise had become more prominent. In addition to the corrective effect of the alcohol excise was relatively weak and did not have continuity, the other taxable item, in particular the corrective effects of the vehicle excise and fuel excise were more significant, the environment effects of the excise in China has become increasing prominent.
(5)This paper dynamically simulated the economic growth effect of excise. Using the Matlab software, this paper dynamically simulated the relationship between the excise tax rate and economic growth rate. The results showed that the excise and economic growth is positively correlated, and the influence on economic growth had a period.
(6)This paper empirically study the income redistribution effect of excise by the K index and the of average tax rate. From an overall perspective, the excise in China became progressive and can play a regulatory role in the income gap since2007. From the perspective of structure, we studied the effect of redistribution of the taxable items, and found that the cigarette and alcohol excise were always regressive, deterioration of the income gap between residents, while the vehicle and fuel excise were progressive, conducive to narrowing the income gap among the residents.
4. The applicability of optimization measures
(1)According to the empirical results and policy practice, this paper put forward the short-term and long-term goals of the excise tax reform. The short-term goals for excise's reform are to focuses on the economic regulation function and taking into account its regulation effects on the income gap between residents. That is correcting the demand deviation of consumer, guiding people to establish a health consumption concept, and constantly improving the design of the excise tax in order to improve the environment. The long-term goals for excise's reform should be helpful to the economic and social sustainable development. The limited excise system should transform to the intermediate excise system, we should build the "green" excise, and at the same time increase the luxury tax in order to play the redistribution function of excise.
(2) From a long-term perspective, this paper suggested that the cigarette excise rate should be increase gradually, in order to achieve "prohibition". At the same time, this paper suggested the specific tax of alcohol excise should be increased gradually, and the ad valorem tax should be set differential rates according the price.
引文
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2 Evans WN, Farrelly MC. The compensating behavior of smokers:taxes, tar, and nicotine. Rand J Econ. 1998;29(3):578-579.
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1 Kenkel, D.S.. Drinking, driving and deterrence:the effectiveness and social cost of alternative policies, Journal of Law and Economics,1993(26):877-913
2 Evans WN, Farrelly MC. The compensating behavior of smokers:taxes, tar, and nicotine. Rand J Econ. 1998;29(3):578-579.
3 Kenkel, D.S. Drinking, driving and deterrence:the effectiveness and social cost of alternative policies.Journal of Law and Economics,1993,(26):877-913.
4 Manning, W.G, L. Blumberg and L.H. Moulton. The demand for alcohol:the differential response to price. Journal of Health Economics,1995,(14):123-148
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6 Chaloupka FJ, Hu T-W, Warner KE, Jacobs R, Yurekli AA. The taxation of tobacco products. Tobacco Control in Developing Countries. Oxford, England:Oxford University Press Inc; 2000:237-272.
7 Franks, P., Jerant, A. F., Leigh, J. P., Lee, D., Chiem, A., Lewis, I., et al.. Cigarette prices, smoking, and the poor:implications of recent trends. American Journal of Public Health,2007 (97):1873.
8 Carpenter, Christopher and Cook, Philip. Cigarette Taxes and Youth Smoking:New Evidence from National, State, and Local Youth Risk Behavior Surveys. Journal of Health Economics.2008 (27):287-299.
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3 Moore MJ. Death and tobacco taxes. Journal of Economics,1996(2):415-28.
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