多突发事件耦合的城市交通应急等级评价
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摘要
随着城市化和机动化进程的加快，城市多突发事件耦合发生越来越频繁，给本身就已经不堪重负的城市交通系统带来很大的威胁。多突发事件下的交通应急处置，成为城市和交通研究的热点和难点。为了在多突发事件耦合发生后，能快速、有效的处置事件，减少损失，就需要交通部门能迅速、正确的评估交通应急等级，从而采取相应的交通应急预案。目前，专门针对交通应急响应级别的研究很少，并且也只是定性的描述，缺少定量模型。论文以国家软科学研究计划项目“面向多突发事件耦合的城市交通应急决策支持体系研究”为背景，开展多突发事件耦合的城市交通应急等级评价研究，主要研究成果如下：
（1）以火灾、爆炸、危险品泄漏和交通事故等涉及交通系统的事故灾难为研究对象，详细分析了各种事故本身特性及其交通特性；对多突发事件耦合进行了分析和归类，并对事件的耦合特性及多突发事件耦合和交通系统的相互关系进行了分析。
（2）在特性分析的基础上，提炼出了影响交通应急等级评价的因素，借助层次分析法的思想，从交通响应的紧急程度和交通救援的难易程度两方面，初步拟定了多因素、多层次的评价指标体系，利用专家经验法和模糊优先排序法对初拟的评价指标体系进行了优化，提出了多突发事件耦合的交通应急等级评价指标体系，并明确给出了各指标的定义。
（3）通过参考国家相关规范、突发事件分级标准、应急交通疏散标准以及相关文献资料，初步建立了各评价指标的阈值标准。
（4）考虑传统的层次分析法确定权重的局限性，引入基于三角模糊数的模糊层次分析法计算了各指标的权重，借助模糊综合评判法构建了交通应急等级判定模型；并利用MATLAB软件设计开发了多突发事件耦合的交通应急等级评价系统。
本论文的研究成果可以为交通管理部门在处置多突发事件耦合时提供一定的决策指导，从而能快速、有效地实施交通应急预案，最大程度的减少社会损失。
With the rapid development of urbanization and motorization, coupling of multipleemergencies occurred frequently, which has threatened the hard-pressed urban trafficsystem. Traffic emergency disposal of coupling of multiple accidents has become one ofthe hotspots and difficulties of the urban and traffic research. In order to deal with accidentquickly and effectively after coupling of accident and reduce loss, traffic department mustevaluate grade of traffic emergency correctly and rapidly as to take corresponding trafficemergency plan. Currently, there are few researches on classification of traffic emergencyresponse. In addition, the previous researches are qualitative, lacking of quantitative model.Taking the National soft science research program-urban traffic emergency decisionsupport system of coupling of multiple emergencies for background, this paper discussedthe grade of traffic emergency of coupling of multiple accidents. The researches of thispaper are as follows:
(1) Taking such disaster accidents involved in traffic system as fire, explosion,leakage of dangerous goods and traffic accident as study objects, the characteristics ofaccidents and their traffic characteristics were analyzed in detail. Coupling of multipleaccidents were analyzed and classified, and the characteristics of coupling of accident andrelationship between accident and traffic system were analyzed.
(2) Based on the analysis of characteristics, the influence factors of grade of trafficemergency were extracted. With the thought of analytic hierarchy process, the initialevaluation index system was established from two aspects, such as urgent degree of trafficresponse and difficult degree of traffic rescue. The expert experience and fuzzyprioritization method were used to optimize the initial index system and a comprehensiveevaluation index system of traffic response grading was proposed. Each index wasdefined.
(3) The threshold criteria of each index were established through analyzing relevantnational standard, classifications criteria of accident, classifications standard of emergencyevacuation and relavant references.
(4) Considering the limitation of traditional analytic hierarchy process, the fuzzyanalytic hierarchy process based on triangular fuzzy number was introduced to calculate weight of each index. Grading model of traffic emergency was established by fuzzycomprehensive evaluation. The traffic emergency grade evaluation software system wasdeveloped using MATLAB software.
The results of this paper can provide certain guidance for traffic department whenthey deal with coupling of accident, which will contribute to implement traffic emergencyplan rapidly and effectively and reduce society loss to greatest extent.
（1）以火灾、爆炸、危险品泄漏和交通事故等涉及交通系统的事故灾难为研究对象，详细分析了各种事故本身特性及其交通特性；对多突发事件耦合进行了分析和归类，并对事件的耦合特性及多突发事件耦合和交通系统的相互关系进行了分析。
（2）在特性分析的基础上，提炼出了影响交通应急等级评价的因素，借助层次分析法的思想，从交通响应的紧急程度和交通救援的难易程度两方面，初步拟定了多因素、多层次的评价指标体系，利用专家经验法和模糊优先排序法对初拟的评价指标体系进行了优化，提出了多突发事件耦合的交通应急等级评价指标体系，并明确给出了各指标的定义。
（3）通过参考国家相关规范、突发事件分级标准、应急交通疏散标准以及相关文献资料，初步建立了各评价指标的阈值标准。
（4）考虑传统的层次分析法确定权重的局限性，引入基于三角模糊数的模糊层次分析法计算了各指标的权重，借助模糊综合评判法构建了交通应急等级判定模型；并利用MATLAB软件设计开发了多突发事件耦合的交通应急等级评价系统。
本论文的研究成果可以为交通管理部门在处置多突发事件耦合时提供一定的决策指导，从而能快速、有效地实施交通应急预案，最大程度的减少社会损失。
With the rapid development of urbanization and motorization, coupling of multipleemergencies occurred frequently, which has threatened the hard-pressed urban trafficsystem. Traffic emergency disposal of coupling of multiple accidents has become one ofthe hotspots and difficulties of the urban and traffic research. In order to deal with accidentquickly and effectively after coupling of accident and reduce loss, traffic department mustevaluate grade of traffic emergency correctly and rapidly as to take corresponding trafficemergency plan. Currently, there are few researches on classification of traffic emergencyresponse. In addition, the previous researches are qualitative, lacking of quantitative model.Taking the National soft science research program-urban traffic emergency decisionsupport system of coupling of multiple emergencies for background, this paper discussedthe grade of traffic emergency of coupling of multiple accidents. The researches of thispaper are as follows:
(1) Taking such disaster accidents involved in traffic system as fire, explosion,leakage of dangerous goods and traffic accident as study objects, the characteristics ofaccidents and their traffic characteristics were analyzed in detail. Coupling of multipleaccidents were analyzed and classified, and the characteristics of coupling of accident andrelationship between accident and traffic system were analyzed.
(2) Based on the analysis of characteristics, the influence factors of grade of trafficemergency were extracted. With the thought of analytic hierarchy process, the initialevaluation index system was established from two aspects, such as urgent degree of trafficresponse and difficult degree of traffic rescue. The expert experience and fuzzyprioritization method were used to optimize the initial index system and a comprehensiveevaluation index system of traffic response grading was proposed. Each index wasdefined.
(3) The threshold criteria of each index were established through analyzing relevantnational standard, classifications criteria of accident, classifications standard of emergencyevacuation and relavant references.
(4) Considering the limitation of traditional analytic hierarchy process, the fuzzyanalytic hierarchy process based on triangular fuzzy number was introduced to calculate weight of each index. Grading model of traffic emergency was established by fuzzycomprehensive evaluation. The traffic emergency grade evaluation software system wasdeveloped using MATLAB software.
The results of this paper can provide certain guidance for traffic department whenthey deal with coupling of accident, which will contribute to implement traffic emergencyplan rapidly and effectively and reduce society loss to greatest extent.
引文
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