特大城市综合公交系统规划理论与方法研究
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摘要
随着城市化和机动化进程加快以及城市轨道交通系统建设推进,综合公交线网形态、网络层次性和功能结构均已发生巨大改变,再按道路公交系统为城市轨道交通输送客流已不能适应当前要求。在城市居民出行结构、空间布局结构、规模和出行时间价值都在发生巨大变化背景下,综合公交系统规划还存在很多不足,难以满足居民多样性出行需求和缓解城市交通拥挤困局。综合公交系统规划与单式公交系统规划区别很大,不能简单套用现有规划方法,而应根据居民出行特征及综合公交线网形态和功能结构特征,注重系统需求与线网的关联和反馈,研究建立相应的综合公交系统规划方法体系。
基于此,针对现有综合公交系统的缺陷及公交系统各自适应性和发展趋势,将多样性公交需求作为综合公交“方式-路径”选择媒介,提出基于需求与线网结构关联反馈的规划原理性框图,构建一体化需求分析模型体系和综合公交线网布局优化流程和模型。论文主要的研究内容包含如下几个方面：
1.通过对综合公交系统内涵和系统组成的分析,指出综合公交系统规划应注重系统外部环境、系统结构和网络结构的研究,加强系统方式间的关联和协调。基于此,从市区公交全过程出行链、综合公交线网完整性和系统需求随机性等角度论证了综合公交系统规划的必要性。通过论证综合公交系统与其内外部环境关系,提出综合公交系统规划的核心技术是通过分区公交换乘枢纽锚固综合公交系统,并将不同出行时间价值的公交需求通过各式公交路径或多样性“方式-路径”组合路径分布在多层次的综合公交线网中,并制定了综合公交系统规划技术路线。
2.在解析城市综合公交系统结构、出行结构和交通配置关系模型的基础上,揭示出当且仅当综合公交系统配置(线路类型、规模等)与多样性出行需求协调匹配方可形成合理的公交系统结构。在此基础上,结合综合公交系统出行距离结构梯度、出行时间梯度以及合理公交系统结构分析,基于出行全过程效用函数等时点,并以现在资料和远期客运结构相结合综合推定合理公交系统结构。算例分析表明：不同方式各具适应性,统筹是规避系统能力枯竭或是系统恶化的有效方式。
3.通过对现有需求分析模型缺陷和适用性分析,提出了综合公交一体化需求分析的基本观点、原理性框架和技术路线,并构建了基于巢式Logit模型、参数估计、状态扩充、网络变换(SAM网络)和交通小区变换等建立了综合公交系统一体化需求分析模型体系。首层模型为基于交通小区聚类和参数估计的全方式全人口出行发生吸引、第二层模型为基于交通小区改造的重力分布模型、第三层模型通过构造基于状态扩充和网络变换的多式客运SAM网络,并基于Nested Logit模型建立综合公交方式划分-分配联合模型。模型体系通过Logsum变量实现线网布局优化与多样性需求分析以及各阶段模型的反馈和迭代。
4.通过总结当前综合公交系线网络结构同质化缺陷并研究综合公交网络形态与层次,建立了综合公交网络结构模式、布局优化框架和线网分层布局模型。在此基础上,立足于各式公交系统比较优势,并考虑不同出行目的和出行者时间价值差异性,构建了综合公交系统分区公交换乘枢纽布局模型和线网布局优化双层规划模型。下层模型为出行者平衡配流模型(UE),上层模型为交通小区间各式公交系统连通性的0-1规划模型,并通过引入Lagrange函数证明了综合公交客流分配满足Wardrop平衡准则,并利用改进的IOA算法进行循环迭代寻优。
5.基于可持续发展角度提出综合公交系统规划应在线网层面、运营层面以及市区与区域交通系统一体化层面实现关联和耦合,并提出基于熵权属性识别的综合公交系统规划评价决策模型。
综上所述,论文对综合公交系统规划理论框架、合理客运系统结构、一体化需求分析、线网布局优化等进行了较为全面的探索和研究,可为特大城市单式公交系统需求和线网布局优化、综合公交系统一体化需求分析和网络布局优化等提供理论及方法支撑,具有较强的理论意义和实用价值。
With the propulsion of urbanization process, acceleration of urban motorization and the urban rail transit system network density increasing, the competitive multi-modal transit system network morphology and structure were both changing hugely, as a result, the pure cohesion among different transit modes couldn't meet the demand. Under the great changing circumstances of trip structure, urban scale and trip time value, the traditional research result of the competitive transit system overall planning was difficult to satisfy the diversity transit demand and relieve urban traffic congestion. Because of great difference between the multi-modal transit system and single public transit, the multi-modal transit system overall planning should consider the characteristic of the trip structure, network morphology and structure and the relevance and feedback between the demand and network rather than using indiscriminately the traditional methods.
Based on it, it aimed at existing multi-modal transit system planning defects and the adaptability of different transit mode and development trends, taking the diversity public transit demand as the linkage of transit "mode-route", presented the framework and technical route of the competitive transit system overall planning based on relevance and feedback between the demand and network and established the competitive transit system integration demand analysis modal structure and the framework and modal of the multi-modal transit network layout and optimization. The main contents of this paper include the following:
1. Through the analysis and definition of competitive transit system connotation and composition, pointed out that competitive transit system should pay attention to the system external environment, system structure and network structure, and enhance the relevance and feedback among different modes. Based on it, this paper focused on the whole transit trip "mode-route" combination, demand plasticity and randomness, transit network integrity to demonstrate necessity of competitive transit system overall planning. Besides, this paper opened out that the core of competitive transit syetem overall planning was to distribute the restricted transit demand in the multi-modal-level competitive transit system network, which was integrated through using system units.
2. On basis of analyzing the relationship modal of multi-modal transit system structure, trip structure and system allocation, this paper revealed that only the multi-modal transit system allocation rationally matching transit trip structure could generate rational system structure. Besides, in combination of analyzing the multi-modal transit system trip distance structure gradient, trip time gradient and rational transit system structure, this paper established the future rational transit system structure on the whole trip process value equal time point and in the combination of the existing data and long-term passenger structure. Example analysis showed that each public transit mode had its own adaptability and overall planning was the effective way to avoid system capacity exhaustion or system deterioration.
3. On basis of analyzing the defects of existing modal and applicability, it proposed the general structure and technique framework of demand analysis and established integration multi-level demand analysis modal system. The first level was trip generation and attraction modal on traffic zone cluster and parameter estimation. The second level was gravity correction modal on traffic zone transformtion. The third level was multi-modal transit system mode split and distribution combination modal through establishing metropolitan multi-modal passenger transportation SAM network on state augmentation and network transformation and on Nested Logit modal. The modal system was through Logsum function to realize relevance and feedback between demand analysis and network structure layout optimization and among each level modal.
4. On analyzing existing network structure's defects and hierarchy, it built multi-modal transit system network structure mode, layout optimization framework and network layered layout modal. Considering the each transit mode adaptability in the competitive transit system, it built competitive transit system network layout modal and bi-level optimization modal on base of time value sensitivity of different trip purposes. The lower level was user equilibrium assignment (UE) modal, while the upper one was0-1planning modal and it proved that multi-modal transit demand distribution met Wardrop equilibrium criterion through using Lagrange function and established optimization algorithm on basis of improved IOA algorithm.
5. On the basis of sustainable development, this dissertation proposed that multi-modal transit system network overall plan should realize association relationship among network, operation and the integration between urban and regional transportation system. And it built the evaluation decision model of multi-modal transit system network overall plan based on the entropy weight attribute recognition.
In conclusion, this paper made comprehensive and in-depth exploration and research on multi-modal transit system overall planning theoretical framework, rational passenger transportation system structure, integration demand analysis and multi-modal transit network layout and optimization etc, could provide theoretical and methodological support on metropolitan single transit system demand analysis and network layout optimization, multi-modal transit system demand analysis and network layout optimization etc, and had strong theoretical and practical value.
基于此,针对现有综合公交系统的缺陷及公交系统各自适应性和发展趋势,将多样性公交需求作为综合公交“方式-路径”选择媒介,提出基于需求与线网结构关联反馈的规划原理性框图,构建一体化需求分析模型体系和综合公交线网布局优化流程和模型。论文主要的研究内容包含如下几个方面：
1.通过对综合公交系统内涵和系统组成的分析,指出综合公交系统规划应注重系统外部环境、系统结构和网络结构的研究,加强系统方式间的关联和协调。基于此,从市区公交全过程出行链、综合公交线网完整性和系统需求随机性等角度论证了综合公交系统规划的必要性。通过论证综合公交系统与其内外部环境关系,提出综合公交系统规划的核心技术是通过分区公交换乘枢纽锚固综合公交系统,并将不同出行时间价值的公交需求通过各式公交路径或多样性“方式-路径”组合路径分布在多层次的综合公交线网中,并制定了综合公交系统规划技术路线。
2.在解析城市综合公交系统结构、出行结构和交通配置关系模型的基础上,揭示出当且仅当综合公交系统配置(线路类型、规模等)与多样性出行需求协调匹配方可形成合理的公交系统结构。在此基础上,结合综合公交系统出行距离结构梯度、出行时间梯度以及合理公交系统结构分析,基于出行全过程效用函数等时点,并以现在资料和远期客运结构相结合综合推定合理公交系统结构。算例分析表明：不同方式各具适应性,统筹是规避系统能力枯竭或是系统恶化的有效方式。
3.通过对现有需求分析模型缺陷和适用性分析,提出了综合公交一体化需求分析的基本观点、原理性框架和技术路线,并构建了基于巢式Logit模型、参数估计、状态扩充、网络变换(SAM网络)和交通小区变换等建立了综合公交系统一体化需求分析模型体系。首层模型为基于交通小区聚类和参数估计的全方式全人口出行发生吸引、第二层模型为基于交通小区改造的重力分布模型、第三层模型通过构造基于状态扩充和网络变换的多式客运SAM网络,并基于Nested Logit模型建立综合公交方式划分-分配联合模型。模型体系通过Logsum变量实现线网布局优化与多样性需求分析以及各阶段模型的反馈和迭代。
4.通过总结当前综合公交系线网络结构同质化缺陷并研究综合公交网络形态与层次,建立了综合公交网络结构模式、布局优化框架和线网分层布局模型。在此基础上,立足于各式公交系统比较优势,并考虑不同出行目的和出行者时间价值差异性,构建了综合公交系统分区公交换乘枢纽布局模型和线网布局优化双层规划模型。下层模型为出行者平衡配流模型(UE),上层模型为交通小区间各式公交系统连通性的0-1规划模型,并通过引入Lagrange函数证明了综合公交客流分配满足Wardrop平衡准则,并利用改进的IOA算法进行循环迭代寻优。
5.基于可持续发展角度提出综合公交系统规划应在线网层面、运营层面以及市区与区域交通系统一体化层面实现关联和耦合,并提出基于熵权属性识别的综合公交系统规划评价决策模型。
综上所述,论文对综合公交系统规划理论框架、合理客运系统结构、一体化需求分析、线网布局优化等进行了较为全面的探索和研究,可为特大城市单式公交系统需求和线网布局优化、综合公交系统一体化需求分析和网络布局优化等提供理论及方法支撑,具有较强的理论意义和实用价值。
With the propulsion of urbanization process, acceleration of urban motorization and the urban rail transit system network density increasing, the competitive multi-modal transit system network morphology and structure were both changing hugely, as a result, the pure cohesion among different transit modes couldn't meet the demand. Under the great changing circumstances of trip structure, urban scale and trip time value, the traditional research result of the competitive transit system overall planning was difficult to satisfy the diversity transit demand and relieve urban traffic congestion. Because of great difference between the multi-modal transit system and single public transit, the multi-modal transit system overall planning should consider the characteristic of the trip structure, network morphology and structure and the relevance and feedback between the demand and network rather than using indiscriminately the traditional methods.
Based on it, it aimed at existing multi-modal transit system planning defects and the adaptability of different transit mode and development trends, taking the diversity public transit demand as the linkage of transit "mode-route", presented the framework and technical route of the competitive transit system overall planning based on relevance and feedback between the demand and network and established the competitive transit system integration demand analysis modal structure and the framework and modal of the multi-modal transit network layout and optimization. The main contents of this paper include the following:
1. Through the analysis and definition of competitive transit system connotation and composition, pointed out that competitive transit system should pay attention to the system external environment, system structure and network structure, and enhance the relevance and feedback among different modes. Based on it, this paper focused on the whole transit trip "mode-route" combination, demand plasticity and randomness, transit network integrity to demonstrate necessity of competitive transit system overall planning. Besides, this paper opened out that the core of competitive transit syetem overall planning was to distribute the restricted transit demand in the multi-modal-level competitive transit system network, which was integrated through using system units.
2. On basis of analyzing the relationship modal of multi-modal transit system structure, trip structure and system allocation, this paper revealed that only the multi-modal transit system allocation rationally matching transit trip structure could generate rational system structure. Besides, in combination of analyzing the multi-modal transit system trip distance structure gradient, trip time gradient and rational transit system structure, this paper established the future rational transit system structure on the whole trip process value equal time point and in the combination of the existing data and long-term passenger structure. Example analysis showed that each public transit mode had its own adaptability and overall planning was the effective way to avoid system capacity exhaustion or system deterioration.
3. On basis of analyzing the defects of existing modal and applicability, it proposed the general structure and technique framework of demand analysis and established integration multi-level demand analysis modal system. The first level was trip generation and attraction modal on traffic zone cluster and parameter estimation. The second level was gravity correction modal on traffic zone transformtion. The third level was multi-modal transit system mode split and distribution combination modal through establishing metropolitan multi-modal passenger transportation SAM network on state augmentation and network transformation and on Nested Logit modal. The modal system was through Logsum function to realize relevance and feedback between demand analysis and network structure layout optimization and among each level modal.
4. On analyzing existing network structure's defects and hierarchy, it built multi-modal transit system network structure mode, layout optimization framework and network layered layout modal. Considering the each transit mode adaptability in the competitive transit system, it built competitive transit system network layout modal and bi-level optimization modal on base of time value sensitivity of different trip purposes. The lower level was user equilibrium assignment (UE) modal, while the upper one was0-1planning modal and it proved that multi-modal transit demand distribution met Wardrop equilibrium criterion through using Lagrange function and established optimization algorithm on basis of improved IOA algorithm.
5. On the basis of sustainable development, this dissertation proposed that multi-modal transit system network overall plan should realize association relationship among network, operation and the integration between urban and regional transportation system. And it built the evaluation decision model of multi-modal transit system network overall plan based on the entropy weight attribute recognition.
In conclusion, this paper made comprehensive and in-depth exploration and research on multi-modal transit system overall planning theoretical framework, rational passenger transportation system structure, integration demand analysis and multi-modal transit network layout and optimization etc, could provide theoretical and methodological support on metropolitan single transit system demand analysis and network layout optimization, multi-modal transit system demand analysis and network layout optimization etc, and had strong theoretical and practical value.
引文
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