大型离心压缩机组风险评估及安全运行管理研究
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摘要
大型离心压缩机组是石油化工行业的关键动力设备,其运行状况关系到整个企业的安全生产和经济效益。由于故障类型多、故障原因交错复杂,其安全运行水平具有很大的模糊性,一旦发生事故极易造成重大的经济损失和人员伤亡,因此有必要对大型离心压缩机组的运行状况进行风险评估,并对如何开展安全运行管理工作进行研究。
本文介绍了离心压缩机组的工作原理,对危险级别在临界级(二级)以上的十种典型故障进行了分析,详细介绍了其产生机理、故障表征、故障原因及改进措施。通过对比分析各类风险评估方法,提出采用故障树—模糊综合评价分析方法,研究大型离心压缩机组的整体安全运行水平及其风险性。
建立了大型离心压缩机组十种典型故障的故障树,并进行了定性定量分析,基于故障树分析结果并综合研究各项因素,构建了离心压缩机组安全运行水平评价指标体系,利用层次分析法(PHA)计算了各级评价指标权重,并采用专家调查法建立了各级因素集的评判矩阵,通过最后模糊综合评判得到验证模型中离心压缩机组的安全运行水平结果。
制定了石化企业事故应急响应的内容和基本方针,基于离心压缩机组不同安全运行水平下所对应的应急状态,建立了事故应急响应标准和事故应急响应组织体系,讨论了制定最优预案的必要性,提出了采用案例式推理(Case -Based Reasoning,CBR)专家系统思想实现应急预案优选。
本文最后用Visual Basic6.0和Microsoft Access数据库管理工具开发了离心压缩机组安全运行管理系统软件,采用案例式分析和教学式知识获取方法,建立了综合数据库,基于演绎推理和CBR专家系统推理规则,完成了设备管理、人员管理、模糊综合评价和应急响应管理四个功能模块的设计,并用实例验证了系统的正确性和有效性。
Large centrifugal compressor unit, which operation status related with the safety operation and economic benefit of the whole company, is the crucial power equipment in petrochemical industry. As large number of fault types and complicated fault reasons, its safety operation leavel has great fuzziness and tends to cause serious losses of economy and life. so it is necessary to assess the operation risk of large centrifugal compressor unit and research how to lunch safety management work.
Operation principle of centrifugal compressor was introduced in this paper and ten typical faults, which risk level is above two, were analysised by introduced their cause mechanism, fault characteristic, fault reason and remark measures. FTA—fuzzy comprehensive evaluation was proposed to study the safety operation level and risk of large centrifugal compressor unit by analyzing contrastively every kind of risk assessment methods.
Ten kinds of fault trees of large centrifugal compressor unit were built and qualitative and quantitative analysis were done. Evaluation indicator system of safety operation level was built based on FTA results and comprehensive analysis of every factor. Weighing of every evaluation indicator was calculated by PHA, and evaluation matrixes of every factor collection were built based on expert survey method, and got safety operation level result of centrifugal compressor unit in model by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.
Emergency response content and basic policies were established. Emergency response standard and organizational system were built based on emergency status corresponding to diffent safety operation level. The necessity of establishing optimal emergency response plan was discussed and realizing optimization of emergency response plan by using CBR was proposed.
At last, the software of safety operation management system of centrifugal compressor unit was developed by Visual Basic6.0 and Microsoft Access. Database was ser up by using knowledge acquisition method of case analysis method and case teaching. Desigen of four functional modules were completed based on deductive reasoning and CBR expert system and the four functional modules include equipment management, staff manament, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and emergency response management. The system was verified correctly and effectively by example.
本文介绍了离心压缩机组的工作原理,对危险级别在临界级(二级)以上的十种典型故障进行了分析,详细介绍了其产生机理、故障表征、故障原因及改进措施。通过对比分析各类风险评估方法,提出采用故障树—模糊综合评价分析方法,研究大型离心压缩机组的整体安全运行水平及其风险性。
建立了大型离心压缩机组十种典型故障的故障树,并进行了定性定量分析,基于故障树分析结果并综合研究各项因素,构建了离心压缩机组安全运行水平评价指标体系,利用层次分析法(PHA)计算了各级评价指标权重,并采用专家调查法建立了各级因素集的评判矩阵,通过最后模糊综合评判得到验证模型中离心压缩机组的安全运行水平结果。
制定了石化企业事故应急响应的内容和基本方针,基于离心压缩机组不同安全运行水平下所对应的应急状态,建立了事故应急响应标准和事故应急响应组织体系,讨论了制定最优预案的必要性,提出了采用案例式推理(Case -Based Reasoning,CBR)专家系统思想实现应急预案优选。
本文最后用Visual Basic6.0和Microsoft Access数据库管理工具开发了离心压缩机组安全运行管理系统软件,采用案例式分析和教学式知识获取方法,建立了综合数据库,基于演绎推理和CBR专家系统推理规则,完成了设备管理、人员管理、模糊综合评价和应急响应管理四个功能模块的设计,并用实例验证了系统的正确性和有效性。
Large centrifugal compressor unit, which operation status related with the safety operation and economic benefit of the whole company, is the crucial power equipment in petrochemical industry. As large number of fault types and complicated fault reasons, its safety operation leavel has great fuzziness and tends to cause serious losses of economy and life. so it is necessary to assess the operation risk of large centrifugal compressor unit and research how to lunch safety management work.
Operation principle of centrifugal compressor was introduced in this paper and ten typical faults, which risk level is above two, were analysised by introduced their cause mechanism, fault characteristic, fault reason and remark measures. FTA—fuzzy comprehensive evaluation was proposed to study the safety operation level and risk of large centrifugal compressor unit by analyzing contrastively every kind of risk assessment methods.
Ten kinds of fault trees of large centrifugal compressor unit were built and qualitative and quantitative analysis were done. Evaluation indicator system of safety operation level was built based on FTA results and comprehensive analysis of every factor. Weighing of every evaluation indicator was calculated by PHA, and evaluation matrixes of every factor collection were built based on expert survey method, and got safety operation level result of centrifugal compressor unit in model by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.
Emergency response content and basic policies were established. Emergency response standard and organizational system were built based on emergency status corresponding to diffent safety operation level. The necessity of establishing optimal emergency response plan was discussed and realizing optimization of emergency response plan by using CBR was proposed.
At last, the software of safety operation management system of centrifugal compressor unit was developed by Visual Basic6.0 and Microsoft Access. Database was ser up by using knowledge acquisition method of case analysis method and case teaching. Desigen of four functional modules were completed based on deductive reasoning and CBR expert system and the four functional modules include equipment management, staff manament, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and emergency response management. The system was verified correctly and effectively by example.
引文
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[2]侯海云.大型回转机械故障诊断的现状和发展趋势[J].建设机械技术与管理,2006,4:98-101
[3]陈宗华.国内大化肥装置离心式压缩机的现状[J].大氮肥,1999,22(6) :372 -374
[4]王光亮.安全评价及进展[J].现代职业安全.2002,l(17):3- 35
[5]周世宇,林柏泉,沈斐敏.安全科学与工程导论[M].北京:中国矿业大学出版社,2005:42-55
[6]武波,马玉祥.专家系统[M].北京:北京理工大学出版社,2001:9-22
[7] Quinlan.J.R..Indution on Decision [J],Machine Learning,1986,1:81-106
[8]刘相臣,张秉淑.化工装备事故分析与预防[M].北京:化学工业出版社,1994:77-78
[9]马雷.离心式压缩机故障原因分析及处理措施[J].风机技术,2007,1:83-84
[10]钱锡俊.泵和压缩机[M].北京:石油大学出版社,2007:118-121
[11] EpsteiIl.A.H.,Williams.J.E.,GreitzerE.M..Active Suppression of Compressor Instabilitie[J].Journal of Propulsion and Power,1989,5(1):204-211.
[12] GB 150-l998,钢制压力容器[S].北京:国家技术监督局,1998
[13]安婧红,李树臣.浅析离心压缩机转子失稳故障[J].中国设备工程,2004,2:42-43
[14]钟书明.密封技术的探讨[J].工业技术,2009,1:104
[15]刘宏军.机械密封泄露原因及补救方法浅析[J].炼化世界,2007,3:24-25
[16]潘得胜,李荣良.大型离心压缩机组的故障与处理[J].中氮肥,2005,6:49-50
[17]肖绍嵩.离心压缩机的喘振分析与控制[J].压缩机技术,2002,3:4-7
[18] Pinsley.Active Stabilization of Centrifugal Compressor surge[J].Journal of Turbo Maehinery,1990,1(113):723-732.
[19]李红.离心式压缩机实施防喘振控制浅析[J].石油化工设备技术,1999,2:29-32
[20]王书敏.离心式压缩机技术问答[M].北京:中国石化出版社,l995:23-56
[21]徐忠.离心式压缩机原理[M].北京:机械工业出版社,1990:38-55
[22]徐敏,黄昭毅.设备故障诊断手册[M].西安:西安交通大学出版社,1998:32-40
[23]张景林,崔国璋.安全系统工程[M].煤炭工业出版社,2002:32-76
[24] Dey P.K.,Tabucanon M.T.Planning for project control through risk analysis-a case of petroleum pipeline laying project[J].International Journal of ProjectManagement,1994,13:23-33
[25]许树柏.层次分析法原理[M].天津:天津大学出版社,1988:12-40
[26]刘新宪,朱道立.选择与判断——AHP (层次分析法)决策[M].上海:上海科学普及出版社,1990:17-22
[27]徐国平.焊接事故因素综合分析及其安全评价方法的建立[J].工业安全与环保,2007,33(6):48
[28]杨伦标,高英仪.模糊数学—原理及应用[M].广州:华南理工大学出版社,1993:62-73
[29] Lin.C.T.,Hybrid.Fault Tree Analysis Using Fuzzy Sets[J ],Reliability Engineering and System Safety,1997,58 :205-213
[30]阎凤霞,董玉华,高惠临.故障树分析方法在油气管线方面的应用[J].西安石油学院学报,2003,18(1):47-50
[31]王志明,李东明,许涛.抽油泵故障树及模糊综合评判组合分析研究[J].石油学报,2003,24(6):87-89
[32] Keller.L.V.Further Application of Fuzzy Logic to Reliability Assessment and Safety Analysis[J].Microelectron Reliab,1989,3(29):399-404
[33] Cai Kaiyuan.Fuzzy Variables an Basis for A Theory of Fuzzy Reliability in The Possibility Context[J].Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1991,42(3):267-286
[34] Cezary. Z.J.Fuzzy Decision Trees Issues and Methods on System[ J ] .Man and Cybe rnetics,1998,28(1):1-14
[35]徐晓丽,钟秉林.离心压缩机组的模糊诊断决策树[J].机电一体化,2008,7:45-52
[36] Xie Kaiyan.The Reliability Design Research of Control System in Large and Middle Size Wind Turbiness[J].Mechanical and Electrical Engineering,1998,25(1):1-2
[37]邵秋峰,马亚龙,胡锦川.模糊合成算子在作战方案综合评估的应用研究[J].装甲兵工工程学院学报,2004,18(4):41-43
[38] Partovi F.Y.,Burton .J.,Banerjee .A.Application of analytic hierarchy process in operations management[J].International Journal of Operations and ProductionManagement,1990,2(12):5-19
[39]申金升.城市交通应急指挥系统的应急能力评价及预案研究—以北京市为例[D].北京:北京交通大学,2007
[40] Robert.T.Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act[J].As Amended by Public Law,2000,10:106-390.
[41]王智新,蒋运茂.重大事故控制实用手册[M].北京:中国劳动出版社,1993:28-30
[42] Entire.D.A.A Proposal forthe Future of Emergency Management[J].International Journal of Emergency Management,2003,1(3):298—308
[43]甄亮.事故调查分析与应急救援[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2007:69-72
[44]刘铁民.企业安全生产管理规章制度精选[M].北京:中国劳动社会保障出版社,2003:372-376
[45]王炜亮,李光明,赵修华,等.事故应急预案的建立和完善[J].工业安全与环保,2006,32(8):57-60
[46]印鉴.专家系统原理与编程[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2000:16-40
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