四川乐山市油菜区域产量保险风险区划及费率精算研究
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摘要
农户在生产过程中主要面临着三大风险：产量风险,价格风险和质量风险,农业保险是应对农业产量风险的重要手段。近年来,我国越来越多的地区通过政策性农业保险的开展来分散农业风险,保障农民的收入稳定。四川省自2007年被列为国家政策性农业保险的首批试点省以来,全省的政策性农业保险发展速度快,承保规模不断增长,但现阶段政策性农业保险的开展往往是在一个地区甚至全省范围内对同一农作物实行统一费率,很容易造成逆选择和道德风险。本文主要以乐山市油菜区域产量保险为例研究风险区域划分的方法和费率精算问题,为乐山及四川省政策性农业保险科学、稳健的发展提供依据。论文的主要研究内容和主要观点如下：
第一章：绪论。阐明本文研究的背景、意义和思路,分析国内外研究成果。
第二章：我国及四川农业保险发展及存在问题分析。按时间顺序回顾了我国农业保险发展所经历的建国初期初探阶段、80年代的商业性农业保险试办阶段、90年代的停滞萎缩阶段和2004年以来的政策性农险发展阶段。分析认为,农业保险具有政策性保险的性质,其发展离不开政府的参与和财政扶持,如商业性农险发展时期农险累计赔付率高达81.82%,而政策性农险发展阶段农险累计赔付率大幅度降低到68.63%。在此基础上,论文还分析了四川省农业保险发展状况和存在的主要问题,认为影响四川政策性农业保险发展的关键问题之一是缺乏对保险经营技术的研究。
第三章：四川乐山油菜生产的主要风险及风险评估。在对乐山市概况介绍的基础上着重分析了乐山油菜生产的面临的自然灾害和病虫害风险,并运用适宜于小样本下进行灾害损失估计的非参数核密度估计中的信息扩散模型,根据乐山市2000年-2008年的各区(县)的油菜单位面积产量数据估算乐山市各区(县)油菜单产损失率分别为0、0.05、0.1、0.15......1共21种情形下的概率,得到了10个样本区(县)的损失率概率分布,计算结果表明总体来说,乐山市的油菜种植具有很大的优势,大多数地区损失率超过28%的概率为零,相对来说犍为县油菜因各种灾害产生损失的概率较大,市中区、沙湾区、五通桥区、夹江县的油菜生产发生一定损失的概率较小。
第四章：乐山油菜区域产量保险风险区划。利用油菜的产量数据,选取单产变异系数、灾害损失率超过4%和12%的概率、农作物生产效率指数、农作物生产规模指数作为聚类指标,利用分层聚类分析法将乐山市各区(县)的油菜生产风险分为三个风险区：市中区、沙湾区、五通桥区、夹江县、井研县和沐川县和峨眉山市为较低风险区；犍为县为中等风险区；峨边彝族自治县和马边彝族自治县为较高风险区。
第五章：乐山油菜区域产量保险费率的厘定。在风险区划的基础上,从单产相对随机波动(RSV)序列入手,采用参数估计法利用easyfit5.0统计分析软件确定每个风险区的RSV序列服从的分布函数——Johnson SB分布,再根据各风险区的单产波动情况选择合适的保障水平即低风险区选取80%,90%和100%三个保障水平,中风险区和高风险区选取70%,80%,90%和100%四个保障水平计算其纯费率,并在一定的经营管理费用率的基础上计算各风险区各保障水平下的毛费率。
本文的创新之处主要有两点：(1)在综合考虑影响油菜生产的气候条件、农业灾害、地形地貌、生产规模等因素的基础上,利用油菜的产量数据,构建合理的聚类指标体系,然后利用分层聚类分析法将乐山市各区县的油菜生产风险分为三个风险区,分别为较低风险区、中等风险区和较高风险区；(2)在风险分区的基础上,采用参数估计法确定合适的单产分布即Johnson SB分布,再根据各风险区的单产波动情况选择合适的保障水平,计算其纯费率,并在一定的经营管理费用率的基础上计算各风险区各保障水平下的毛费率。
Farmers usually face three main risks:production risk, price risk and quality risk, agricultural insurance is an important way to deal with all these risks.More and more areas developped agricultural insurance to diversify agricultural risks and protect a stable income for farmers.Sichuan Province was a national agricultural insurance pilot since 2007.Since then,the development speed and the scale of Sichuan's agricultural insurance was amazing,but the insurance rate at this moment is unreasonable for the rate in a region or even province is same.It is likely to cause adverse selection and moral hazard.In this paper, we take Leshan's rape area yield insurance as an example to study the method of risking zoning and rate-making to provide the basis for stable development.The main research content and main points are as follows:
Charpter one:Introduction.Clarifying the background of this study, meaning and ideas.Analyzing domestic and foreign research results.
Charprter two:Introduce the development of agricultural insurance in China and Sichuan to analyz problem.Chronological review of the development of agricultural insurance:experience of phase,state-run agricultural insurance pilot phase, commercial stage of development of agricultural insurance, agricultural insurance business to stop shrinking phase and stage of development of agricultural insurance policy.Based on the analysis of the development situation of agricultural insurance and the main issues raised in Sichuan, we take the lack of reasearch on agricultual insurance management techniques as the key issue to affected the development of agricultural insurance.
Charpter three:Sichuan Leshan major risk on rape production and risk assessment.Based on the introduction of Leshan City, we focus on the rape production risks of natural disasters, pests and diseases, and use the non-parametric kernel density estimate of the information in the diffusion model which is suitable fo small sample estamation to estimate the risk under multiple disasters.According to Leshan's 2000-2008 year districts (counties) the yield per unit area data for estimating the yield loss rate'probability of 21 cases.
Charpter four:Leshan rapeseed area yield insurance risk zoning.Based on the rapeseed production data, select the yield coefficient of variation, disaster loss rate of over 15% and 30% of the probability,efficiency index for crop production and crop production scale index as the clustering index,use hierarchical cluster to divide the Leshan City into three risk zones:City District, Shawan District, Wutongqiao, Jiajiang County and Emei City are at a lower risk area;Qianwei, Jinyan County and Muchuan are at a moderate risk areas;Ebian Mabian Yi Autonomous County and Yi Autonomous County are at a high risk area.
Charpter five:Ratemaking of Leshan rape area yield insurance.Based on the risk zoning,we start from the random fluctuations from the relative yields (RSV) angles,using appropriate statistical analysis software to find the the best fitting model——Jonhson SB distribution, then choose the right wavethe security level to calculate the rates
There are two main innovations of this paper:(1) considering the impact of rapeseed production in climatic conditions, agricultural disasters, topography, scale of production on the basis of such factors, the use of rapeseed production data to construct a reasonable clustering index system, and then use hierarchical cluster analysis of rape Leshan City, the county is divided into three risk areas production risks were low risk areas, medium risk areas and higher risk areas; (2)Based on the risk zoning, the use of each risk area easyfit5.0 software to find the best fitting model of yield fluctuations, according to the yield volatility risk areas to choose the appropriate level of protection to calculate the net rates.
第一章：绪论。阐明本文研究的背景、意义和思路,分析国内外研究成果。
第二章：我国及四川农业保险发展及存在问题分析。按时间顺序回顾了我国农业保险发展所经历的建国初期初探阶段、80年代的商业性农业保险试办阶段、90年代的停滞萎缩阶段和2004年以来的政策性农险发展阶段。分析认为,农业保险具有政策性保险的性质,其发展离不开政府的参与和财政扶持,如商业性农险发展时期农险累计赔付率高达81.82%,而政策性农险发展阶段农险累计赔付率大幅度降低到68.63%。在此基础上,论文还分析了四川省农业保险发展状况和存在的主要问题,认为影响四川政策性农业保险发展的关键问题之一是缺乏对保险经营技术的研究。
第三章：四川乐山油菜生产的主要风险及风险评估。在对乐山市概况介绍的基础上着重分析了乐山油菜生产的面临的自然灾害和病虫害风险,并运用适宜于小样本下进行灾害损失估计的非参数核密度估计中的信息扩散模型,根据乐山市2000年-2008年的各区(县)的油菜单位面积产量数据估算乐山市各区(县)油菜单产损失率分别为0、0.05、0.1、0.15......1共21种情形下的概率,得到了10个样本区(县)的损失率概率分布,计算结果表明总体来说,乐山市的油菜种植具有很大的优势,大多数地区损失率超过28%的概率为零,相对来说犍为县油菜因各种灾害产生损失的概率较大,市中区、沙湾区、五通桥区、夹江县的油菜生产发生一定损失的概率较小。
第四章：乐山油菜区域产量保险风险区划。利用油菜的产量数据,选取单产变异系数、灾害损失率超过4%和12%的概率、农作物生产效率指数、农作物生产规模指数作为聚类指标,利用分层聚类分析法将乐山市各区(县)的油菜生产风险分为三个风险区：市中区、沙湾区、五通桥区、夹江县、井研县和沐川县和峨眉山市为较低风险区；犍为县为中等风险区；峨边彝族自治县和马边彝族自治县为较高风险区。
第五章：乐山油菜区域产量保险费率的厘定。在风险区划的基础上,从单产相对随机波动(RSV)序列入手,采用参数估计法利用easyfit5.0统计分析软件确定每个风险区的RSV序列服从的分布函数——Johnson SB分布,再根据各风险区的单产波动情况选择合适的保障水平即低风险区选取80%,90%和100%三个保障水平,中风险区和高风险区选取70%,80%,90%和100%四个保障水平计算其纯费率,并在一定的经营管理费用率的基础上计算各风险区各保障水平下的毛费率。
本文的创新之处主要有两点：(1)在综合考虑影响油菜生产的气候条件、农业灾害、地形地貌、生产规模等因素的基础上,利用油菜的产量数据,构建合理的聚类指标体系,然后利用分层聚类分析法将乐山市各区县的油菜生产风险分为三个风险区,分别为较低风险区、中等风险区和较高风险区；(2)在风险分区的基础上,采用参数估计法确定合适的单产分布即Johnson SB分布,再根据各风险区的单产波动情况选择合适的保障水平,计算其纯费率,并在一定的经营管理费用率的基础上计算各风险区各保障水平下的毛费率。
Farmers usually face three main risks:production risk, price risk and quality risk, agricultural insurance is an important way to deal with all these risks.More and more areas developped agricultural insurance to diversify agricultural risks and protect a stable income for farmers.Sichuan Province was a national agricultural insurance pilot since 2007.Since then,the development speed and the scale of Sichuan's agricultural insurance was amazing,but the insurance rate at this moment is unreasonable for the rate in a region or even province is same.It is likely to cause adverse selection and moral hazard.In this paper, we take Leshan's rape area yield insurance as an example to study the method of risking zoning and rate-making to provide the basis for stable development.The main research content and main points are as follows:
Charpter one:Introduction.Clarifying the background of this study, meaning and ideas.Analyzing domestic and foreign research results.
Charprter two:Introduce the development of agricultural insurance in China and Sichuan to analyz problem.Chronological review of the development of agricultural insurance:experience of phase,state-run agricultural insurance pilot phase, commercial stage of development of agricultural insurance, agricultural insurance business to stop shrinking phase and stage of development of agricultural insurance policy.Based on the analysis of the development situation of agricultural insurance and the main issues raised in Sichuan, we take the lack of reasearch on agricultual insurance management techniques as the key issue to affected the development of agricultural insurance.
Charpter three:Sichuan Leshan major risk on rape production and risk assessment.Based on the introduction of Leshan City, we focus on the rape production risks of natural disasters, pests and diseases, and use the non-parametric kernel density estimate of the information in the diffusion model which is suitable fo small sample estamation to estimate the risk under multiple disasters.According to Leshan's 2000-2008 year districts (counties) the yield per unit area data for estimating the yield loss rate'probability of 21 cases.
Charpter four:Leshan rapeseed area yield insurance risk zoning.Based on the rapeseed production data, select the yield coefficient of variation, disaster loss rate of over 15% and 30% of the probability,efficiency index for crop production and crop production scale index as the clustering index,use hierarchical cluster to divide the Leshan City into three risk zones:City District, Shawan District, Wutongqiao, Jiajiang County and Emei City are at a lower risk area;Qianwei, Jinyan County and Muchuan are at a moderate risk areas;Ebian Mabian Yi Autonomous County and Yi Autonomous County are at a high risk area.
Charpter five:Ratemaking of Leshan rape area yield insurance.Based on the risk zoning,we start from the random fluctuations from the relative yields (RSV) angles,using appropriate statistical analysis software to find the the best fitting model——Jonhson SB distribution, then choose the right wavethe security level to calculate the rates
There are two main innovations of this paper:(1) considering the impact of rapeseed production in climatic conditions, agricultural disasters, topography, scale of production on the basis of such factors, the use of rapeseed production data to construct a reasonable clustering index system, and then use hierarchical cluster analysis of rape Leshan City, the county is divided into three risk areas production risks were low risk areas, medium risk areas and higher risk areas; (2)Based on the risk zoning, the use of each risk area easyfit5.0 software to find the best fitting model of yield fluctuations, according to the yield volatility risk areas to choose the appropriate level of protection to calculate the net rates.
引文
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