人力资源管理数理分析
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摘要
将随机的方法应用到人力资源中是一种新的思路,是对人力资源评估方法的一种创新,它考虑了传统人力资源评估模型中未充分考虑的因素,如灵活性。这种方法可以更加准确用来描述人力系统。
王键等人提出了人力系统的基本要素:系统人数、任职期限、能量、结构等,而系统人数和任职期限是研究人力系统的最核心的要素,是研究一个人力系统稳定性和合理性的关键所在。影响人力系统主要因素有:人口和劳动队伍变化、人员年龄的增长、经济发展状况、技术变化、正常的人事变动、法律和法规的约束、系统发展阶段的影响、系统内个体对工作岗位态度的变化等。因为影响人力系统的因素有很多,一般模型难以把各种因素都考虑进去,实际上也没有必要把各种因素都考虑进去。把系统人数和人员系统内任职期限的波动过程看作是一个随机过程,再将各种因素对系统人数的影响看作是随机扰动,便产生了系统人数的随机模型。
为了更有针对性本文把人力系统分为两类:定容和非定容。再把定容人力系统分割成若干子系统,而子系统又由若干同类成员构成。要保证人力系统正常运行,必须对人力系统的人员流失进行及时的补充,否则人力系统处于非正常状态。系统内人员的流进流出又是一个随机过程,根据分析可把系统内人员的任职期限看作服从指数分布。要保证人力系统正常运行,必须能判断一段时间内流出的人员数量,以此确定出人员补给方案。根据分析可把系统内人员的任职期限看作服从指数分布,要保障人力系统的正常运行必须能判断一段时间内流出系统的人员数量和系统人数的波动程度,来确定出系统人员需求的随机模型。
在非定容人力系统中,同样可把人力系统分割成若干子系统,而子系统又由若干同类成员构成,建立人力系统容量随机模型,并利用随机微分方程和偏微分方程的关系,对人力系统容量不确定性进行估计,得到关于人力系统不确定性指标的动态轨线,从而对人力系统受各种因素的变化有整体上的把握。
本文的最后一部分目的是在国内外人力资源价值评估的理论研究基础上,尝试着对人力资源价值评估方法进行分析,以此充实我国人力资源价值评估的理论,完善我国人力资源价值的评估方法,并为人力资源价值评估实践提供理论指导和依据。
Applying random method to human resources is a new thinking and is an innovative approach of human resources assessment, which considers the factors that are not considered sufficiently in traditional human resource assessment model ,such as flexibility.This method is more accurate for describing human system.
Wang Jian, make the basic elements of human systems: system size, term of office, energy, structure and so on, Among of which system size and term of office is the key of studying the human system and its stability and rationality.The major factors impacting on human system are: population and workforce changes, the age of growth, economic development, technological development, the normal personnel changes, legal and regulatory constraints, the impact of the system development stage,the attitude changes of individuals in the system.Because there are many factors impactinhg on the Human system, most general models are difficult to take various factors into account. In fact it is not necessary to consider all the factors. Considering the fluctuation process of the system size and the term of office as a random process, taking various factors affecting the system as the number of random disturbances, than the random model of system size is put forwanrd.
For more pertinency ,we divide the system into two types: human capacity and non- human capacity . Human capacity can be divided into several sub-system system, and subsystems are composed of some similar members.In order to ensure human system operating, the reduce people in the system must be recruited timely , or the human system is unnormal.The flowing and outflowing number of The system is a random process, based on analysis ,we could consider that the term of office in the system obeies index distribution,To ensure the human systems operating normally ,we must judge the outflowing number of The system and the fluctuation of the number ,then we can find out the stochastic model of the need in the system
In non-Human capacity system,we can also divided it into several sub-system systems, and subsystems are composed of some similar members.Building human capacity stochastic model,using the differential equations and partial differential equations ,estimating the uncertainty of the system capacity,we get the dynamic rail line of the uncertain indicators of the human system.Then we can grasp all the changes impacted by various factors of the human system.
The main purpose of this paper is to try to analyze all kinds of human resource evaluation methods to enrich the human resource evaluation theory of our country, to improve the evaluation methods on human resource and to provide theoretical instruction, based on human resource evaluation practice.
王键等人提出了人力系统的基本要素:系统人数、任职期限、能量、结构等,而系统人数和任职期限是研究人力系统的最核心的要素,是研究一个人力系统稳定性和合理性的关键所在。影响人力系统主要因素有:人口和劳动队伍变化、人员年龄的增长、经济发展状况、技术变化、正常的人事变动、法律和法规的约束、系统发展阶段的影响、系统内个体对工作岗位态度的变化等。因为影响人力系统的因素有很多,一般模型难以把各种因素都考虑进去,实际上也没有必要把各种因素都考虑进去。把系统人数和人员系统内任职期限的波动过程看作是一个随机过程,再将各种因素对系统人数的影响看作是随机扰动,便产生了系统人数的随机模型。
为了更有针对性本文把人力系统分为两类:定容和非定容。再把定容人力系统分割成若干子系统,而子系统又由若干同类成员构成。要保证人力系统正常运行,必须对人力系统的人员流失进行及时的补充,否则人力系统处于非正常状态。系统内人员的流进流出又是一个随机过程,根据分析可把系统内人员的任职期限看作服从指数分布。要保证人力系统正常运行,必须能判断一段时间内流出的人员数量,以此确定出人员补给方案。根据分析可把系统内人员的任职期限看作服从指数分布,要保障人力系统的正常运行必须能判断一段时间内流出系统的人员数量和系统人数的波动程度,来确定出系统人员需求的随机模型。
在非定容人力系统中,同样可把人力系统分割成若干子系统,而子系统又由若干同类成员构成,建立人力系统容量随机模型,并利用随机微分方程和偏微分方程的关系,对人力系统容量不确定性进行估计,得到关于人力系统不确定性指标的动态轨线,从而对人力系统受各种因素的变化有整体上的把握。
本文的最后一部分目的是在国内外人力资源价值评估的理论研究基础上,尝试着对人力资源价值评估方法进行分析,以此充实我国人力资源价值评估的理论,完善我国人力资源价值的评估方法,并为人力资源价值评估实践提供理论指导和依据。
Applying random method to human resources is a new thinking and is an innovative approach of human resources assessment, which considers the factors that are not considered sufficiently in traditional human resource assessment model ,such as flexibility.This method is more accurate for describing human system.
Wang Jian, make the basic elements of human systems: system size, term of office, energy, structure and so on, Among of which system size and term of office is the key of studying the human system and its stability and rationality.The major factors impacting on human system are: population and workforce changes, the age of growth, economic development, technological development, the normal personnel changes, legal and regulatory constraints, the impact of the system development stage,the attitude changes of individuals in the system.Because there are many factors impactinhg on the Human system, most general models are difficult to take various factors into account. In fact it is not necessary to consider all the factors. Considering the fluctuation process of the system size and the term of office as a random process, taking various factors affecting the system as the number of random disturbances, than the random model of system size is put forwanrd.
For more pertinency ,we divide the system into two types: human capacity and non- human capacity . Human capacity can be divided into several sub-system system, and subsystems are composed of some similar members.In order to ensure human system operating, the reduce people in the system must be recruited timely , or the human system is unnormal.The flowing and outflowing number of The system is a random process, based on analysis ,we could consider that the term of office in the system obeies index distribution,To ensure the human systems operating normally ,we must judge the outflowing number of The system and the fluctuation of the number ,then we can find out the stochastic model of the need in the system
In non-Human capacity system,we can also divided it into several sub-system systems, and subsystems are composed of some similar members.Building human capacity stochastic model,using the differential equations and partial differential equations ,estimating the uncertainty of the system capacity,we get the dynamic rail line of the uncertain indicators of the human system.Then we can grasp all the changes impacted by various factors of the human system.
The main purpose of this paper is to try to analyze all kinds of human resource evaluation methods to enrich the human resource evaluation theory of our country, to improve the evaluation methods on human resource and to provide theoretical instruction, based on human resource evaluation practice.
引文
[1] 西奥多·W·舒尔茨.人力资本投资.北京:商务印书馆,1990:323-342
[2] 王键,邓建国,于红旗.高等学校的师资配置与调控.湘潭大学社会科学学报, 2000,24(6):52-56.
[3] 王键.人力资源管理的数理分析.长沙电力学院学报(自然科学版),2003,18(2):1- 5.
[4] 郑明川, 魏旭丹.实物期权在人力资源价值计量中的应用.经济论坛,2004, (13):60-61.
[5] 孙红丽,何永贵,张文建,韩月娥.马尔科夫模型在企业人力资源供给预测中的应用.华北电力大学学报 2004,31(5):56-58.
[6] 覃绍峰,严淑珍.广西高校人力资源战略管理初探.学术论坛,2005,(11):176-179.
[7] 崔晓君.现代人力资源测评观简论. 山东教育学院学报,2006,(5).
[8] 张洪.论高校人力资源的优化配置. 煤炭高等教育,2006,(4).
[9] 方四平.基于马尔科夫链的企业内部人力资源供给预测.北京工业职业技术学院学报,2004,(4).
[10] 王树华.有替换定时截尾寿命试验参数的极大似然估计. 河北师范大学学报(自然科学版), 1999/02.
[11] 高峰, 定时截尾试验下带有固定精度的置信区间.淮阴工学院学报. 2006,05
[12] 李云飞. 指数分布参数基于不完全数据的区间估计. 科技信息(学术研究). 2007,15
[13] 赵修平.寿命服从指数分布的电子设备备件储备量的确定.海军航空工程学院学报. 2006/04.
[14] 戴树森.关于寿命试验的某些统计分析——(指数分布的情形) .数学的实践与认识. 1982/01
[15] 杨振宇.股票的随机模型及投资风险初探. 系统工程. 1994,04
[16] Darrell Deffie,Security Markets Stochastic,ACADFMIC PRESS,INC,1988.
[17] Black,F,and M,Scholes.The Pricing of Options an Corporate Liablites, J.ef Business, 1973,45,444-454.
[18] A.Friedmas, Stochastic Differential Equations and Applications, Vol 1,New York; Academic Press,1983.
[19] A.Pazy, Semigroups of Linear Oprators and Applications to PDFs, SpringerVerlag, New York,1983
[20] 范丽霞 , 李谷成. 人力资源价值评估中的模糊计量 . 全国商情(经济理论研究),2006,(9).
[21] 蔡吉祥.无形资产学深圳.海天出版社,2002,114-115
[22] John M.Ivancevich .Human Resource Management. American University of Houston,2004,123-126
[23] 姜楠.资产评估.大连:东北财经大学出版社,2001,87-89
[24] 赵海超.人力资源价值评估方法研究:[东北大学硕士学位论文]. 辽宁省沈阳市:东北大学工商管理学院,2005,30-39
[25]万玺,李生智.人力资源绩效评估方法研究. 重庆工商大学学报(社会科学版),2006,(4).
[26] 唐小剑.人力资源评估的量化参考模型. 经济与管理,2006,(8).
[27] 陈凯华,张孝远.主成分分析法在人力资源测评中的应用. 统计与决策,2006,(11).
[28] 胡学群. 论人力资源管理模式在高校师资管理中的应用.邵阳学院学报(社会科学版),2006,(4).
[29] 蔡志强,卢厚清, 模糊数学在人力资源管理绩效评价中的应用[J]. 数学的实践与认识,2006,(7).
[30] 李耘涛,赵涛.基于模糊数学的人力资源岗位匹配度研究. 西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版),2006,(2).
[31] 赵雪萍.高等学校人力资源管理的模糊综合评判. 西安科技大学学报,2005,(2).
[32] 张英才.基于模糊神经网络的企业人力资源风险评价. 河南理工大学学报(社会科学版),2005,(1).
[33] 陈婕, 对高校人力资源管理有关问题的探讨[J]. 淮海工学院学报(人文社会科学版),2005,(1).
[34] Campabell R, Huisman R, Keoedijk K. Optimal portfolio selection in a Value-at-Risk framework[J],Journal of Banking&Finance,2001,25(4):1789-1804
[35] Stambaugh F. Risk and Value-at-Risk[J],European Management Journal,1996, 14 (4):612-621
[36] Rockafeller T, Uryasev S. Optimization of Conditional VaR[J},Journal of Risk. 2000, 2(3):21-24
[37] Nikolas T, Hercules V, Stavros A.CVaR models with selective hedging international assets allocation[J],Journal of Banking&Finance.2002,26(3):1535-1561
[38] Uryasev S. Conditional Value-at-Risk: Optimization Algorithms and Applications [N],Financial Engineering News,2000, 02,14:1-5
[39] Rockfeller T, Uryasev S. Conditional Value-at-Risk for general loss distribution [J],Journal of Banking&Finance, 2002, 26(4):1445-1471
[40] 雷水清.高校人力资源管理探析. 绥化学院学报,2005,(1).
[41] 肖笃森.高校校园文化与人力资源开发探析.赣南师范学院学报,2005,(2).
[42] 王金干,李玉萍,施小丽.人力资源管理中人才甄选的灰色多层次评价.工业工程,2005,(1).
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[45] 陈萍,田双亮.基于马尔柯夫分析的人力资源管理定量评价模型.西北民族大学学报(自然科学版),2004,(2).
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[2] 王键,邓建国,于红旗.高等学校的师资配置与调控.湘潭大学社会科学学报, 2000,24(6):52-56.
[3] 王键.人力资源管理的数理分析.长沙电力学院学报(自然科学版),2003,18(2):1- 5.
[4] 郑明川, 魏旭丹.实物期权在人力资源价值计量中的应用.经济论坛,2004, (13):60-61.
[5] 孙红丽,何永贵,张文建,韩月娥.马尔科夫模型在企业人力资源供给预测中的应用.华北电力大学学报 2004,31(5):56-58.
[6] 覃绍峰,严淑珍.广西高校人力资源战略管理初探.学术论坛,2005,(11):176-179.
[7] 崔晓君.现代人力资源测评观简论. 山东教育学院学报,2006,(5).
[8] 张洪.论高校人力资源的优化配置. 煤炭高等教育,2006,(4).
[9] 方四平.基于马尔科夫链的企业内部人力资源供给预测.北京工业职业技术学院学报,2004,(4).
[10] 王树华.有替换定时截尾寿命试验参数的极大似然估计. 河北师范大学学报(自然科学版), 1999/02.
[11] 高峰, 定时截尾试验下带有固定精度的置信区间.淮阴工学院学报. 2006,05
[12] 李云飞. 指数分布参数基于不完全数据的区间估计. 科技信息(学术研究). 2007,15
[13] 赵修平.寿命服从指数分布的电子设备备件储备量的确定.海军航空工程学院学报. 2006/04.
[14] 戴树森.关于寿命试验的某些统计分析——(指数分布的情形) .数学的实践与认识. 1982/01
[15] 杨振宇.股票的随机模型及投资风险初探. 系统工程. 1994,04
[16] Darrell Deffie,Security Markets Stochastic,ACADFMIC PRESS,INC,1988.
[17] Black,F,and M,Scholes.The Pricing of Options an Corporate Liablites, J.ef Business, 1973,45,444-454.
[18] A.Friedmas, Stochastic Differential Equations and Applications, Vol 1,New York; Academic Press,1983.
[19] A.Pazy, Semigroups of Linear Oprators and Applications to PDFs, SpringerVerlag, New York,1983
[20] 范丽霞 , 李谷成. 人力资源价值评估中的模糊计量 . 全国商情(经济理论研究),2006,(9).
[21] 蔡吉祥.无形资产学深圳.海天出版社,2002,114-115
[22] John M.Ivancevich .Human Resource Management. American University of Houston,2004,123-126
[23] 姜楠.资产评估.大连:东北财经大学出版社,2001,87-89
[24] 赵海超.人力资源价值评估方法研究:[东北大学硕士学位论文]. 辽宁省沈阳市:东北大学工商管理学院,2005,30-39
[25]万玺,李生智.人力资源绩效评估方法研究. 重庆工商大学学报(社会科学版),2006,(4).
[26] 唐小剑.人力资源评估的量化参考模型. 经济与管理,2006,(8).
[27] 陈凯华,张孝远.主成分分析法在人力资源测评中的应用. 统计与决策,2006,(11).
[28] 胡学群. 论人力资源管理模式在高校师资管理中的应用.邵阳学院学报(社会科学版),2006,(4).
[29] 蔡志强,卢厚清, 模糊数学在人力资源管理绩效评价中的应用[J]. 数学的实践与认识,2006,(7).
[30] 李耘涛,赵涛.基于模糊数学的人力资源岗位匹配度研究. 西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版),2006,(2).
[31] 赵雪萍.高等学校人力资源管理的模糊综合评判. 西安科技大学学报,2005,(2).
[32] 张英才.基于模糊神经网络的企业人力资源风险评价. 河南理工大学学报(社会科学版),2005,(1).
[33] 陈婕, 对高校人力资源管理有关问题的探讨[J]. 淮海工学院学报(人文社会科学版),2005,(1).
[34] Campabell R, Huisman R, Keoedijk K. Optimal portfolio selection in a Value-at-Risk framework[J],Journal of Banking&Finance,2001,25(4):1789-1804
[35] Stambaugh F. Risk and Value-at-Risk[J],European Management Journal,1996, 14 (4):612-621
[36] Rockafeller T, Uryasev S. Optimization of Conditional VaR[J},Journal of Risk. 2000, 2(3):21-24
[37] Nikolas T, Hercules V, Stavros A.CVaR models with selective hedging international assets allocation[J],Journal of Banking&Finance.2002,26(3):1535-1561
[38] Uryasev S. Conditional Value-at-Risk: Optimization Algorithms and Applications [N],Financial Engineering News,2000, 02,14:1-5
[39] Rockfeller T, Uryasev S. Conditional Value-at-Risk for general loss distribution [J],Journal of Banking&Finance, 2002, 26(4):1445-1471
[40] 雷水清.高校人力资源管理探析. 绥化学院学报,2005,(1).
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