我国养老表现制度经济分析及运行效率研究
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摘要
养老保险制度是社会保障的主要内容,其目的是通过一定的制度模式将养老保险基金发放到离退休的老年人手中,以保障老年退休群体基本的生活需要开支。本文以制度经济学、(新)福利经济学、人本社会学、发展社会学和系统工程理论作为理论研究基础,分别从养老保险制度经济分析和养老保险制度运行效率研究两个切入点入手进行了系统分析与研究。
首先,鉴于发达国家的养老保险制度安排较我国早且比较完善和成熟,实际的操作模式也比较丰富,本文从养老保险制度组织模式、组织结构及主体受益程度等多个层面对德国、瑞典、美国、日本、新加坡、智利等国家的养老保险制度与中国进行比较与分析。通过OECD统计数据的比较,可获得我国养老保险制度运行中存在的差距和启示。
其次,养老保险制度安排是众多系统因素相互影响及作用的结果,这些系统因素包括政府相关因素、企事业单位相关因素、个人相关因素及社会相关因素等等。为从系统内部获得养老保险制度的关键影响因素,本文采用DEMATEL方法,从定量分析的角度对养老保险制度众多影响因素进行了辨识,从而获得了养老保险制度确立的关键要素。
再次,养老保险制度是在关键要素的相互作用下,伴随社会经济环境的变化而逐渐变迁的一个过程。通过对我国职工养老保险制度变迁演化过程的追踪,可以获得目前我国养老保险制度安排存在的弊端与不足。本文利用制度经济学的优化模型和关键要素的整合分析可确定我国养老保险制度安排的优化模式。
第四,养老保险制度确立只是养老保险制度研究的一个方面,其组织管理及运行效率的测算与评估也是增强我国养老保险制度安排的重要内容。本文利用DEA算法对我国的养老保险制度变迁及区域运行效率进行了测算,获得了我国养老保险制度的运行状况。为进一步从参保人的视角测度养老保险制度的运行状况,本文以吉林省为实证研究对象,通过调研问卷获得了离退休人员对现行养老保险制度的运行的满意度分析。
最后,根据本文的国际比较,系统要素辨识,经济分析和运行效率研究,获得了我国养老保险制度优化的对策、措施与建议,并确定了养老保险制度改革的方向与路径。
Endowment insurance institution is a kind of society insurance which is arranged by country and society for resolving the issue of retirement. The goals of endowment insurance institute is enhancing the capability of labor for facing adventures in the stage of retirement and making up the shortage on family raise. The main method of endoement insuarancce institution is providing some pension for labor when she or he retires. With the transfering of society and developing of macro background of society, the family number is reducing and the relationship in family is fading. In the restricting of this society environment, endowment insurance institution becomes the main dependence of retire people.
The endowment insurance istitutions is the core content in social security institutions in China. The endowment institution in China had passed the establish stage, adjust and development stage, pause stage and reforme and development stage, and we are staying in the stage of reforme and development. However, there are many of isuues which should be resoled in the endowment insurance institution in China, which include the isuue of fund gap and empety account, the low level of integeration, society aging and generation transformation, tax reforme on enterprises, agricultural population and issue of peasant joining, etc. Therefore, the studies on economic analysis and running efficiency on endowment insurance institutions in China is significant and meaniful.
By referencing on the research on endowment institution arrangement, optimal economics model and running efficiency, the main study orientiations in this dissertation are identified, which include international comparation, system key factor identification, trendency forecast, analysis on optimal economics models and measuring on running efficiency. Based on the theory of institutional economics, welfare economics, humanism and society economics, development economics and system engineering, we can study the endowment insurance institution in more in-depth way.
The establishment and running of endowment insurance institution in developed countries are ealier and more perfect than China. Comparing the organization mode, organization structure and benefit of aging in Germany, Sweden, USA, Japan, Singapore, Chile to China, we can get some useful inspiration in establishing of endowment insurance institution. By using the statistic data on GDP, aging ratio and endowment fund in Germany, Sweden, USA, Japan, Singapore, Korea, Chile and China, we can obtain the gap information. By using the information obtained in international comparation, we should establish our endowmwnt insurance insititution based on the realistic conditions of China. In the arrangement of endowment insurance institution, we should pay more attention to cultivate the knowledge structure of resident, construct endowment insurance system based on realistics, chose corresponding fund mode, establish government administrate management system, marketing and optimal modes.
Using the game theory analysis between enterprises and government, influencing factor analysis and in endowment insurance institute, there are 28 factors which reflect government, enterprises, humanbeing and society environment. By using DEMATEL methodology, the 28 factors can be ranked by the degree of importance in endownment insurance institution. As the indentification result, the key influencing factor on government include preference on economy policy (F1), institution running cost (F3), scale of financial payment (F5). The enterprises key factors include running intension of policy (F7), procuding cost in enterprises (F8), tax evation cost in interprises (F12). The employee key factors include avoiding adventure capability (F14), endowment mode (F15), fund substitute ratio (16), payment ratio (17) and income level (21). The society environment key factors include economy conditions of country (23) and corresponding institutions and law (F24).
Because of pressure from the aging issue happened in proverty condition and multiple dimensions payment, latent debet and transferring cost, the running of endowment institution becomes more difficult in China. Based on the information of factors indentification, government should take the key factors into account when we reforme the endowment insurance institution system, which can enhance the management capablicy and running efficiency on endowment insurance institution.
Using the statistic data of endowment insurance fund income, endowment insurance fund output, employee number joining endowment insurance and retirement people number from 1989 to 2007, we can calculate the regression ffunction for each index. Based on the regression function, we can forecaste the corresponding data from 2009 to 2030. By analysising the data of forecast, the endowment fund balance keeps in the trend of increasing, which can provid the feasibility on applying the fund mode. For indentifying the optimal reforme path, the running mode of endowment insurance institution, adventure investment and debet crisis anaysis on endowment insurance institution and payment game process are stidies in the dissertation.
There are two kinds of modes present in endowment insurance system, denoted as Pay-as-you-go mode and pension fund mode. Pay as you go mode origined from Europe, which collect penstion fund from all of society by society insurance institutes, on the same time, enterprises and employees will be collect some money in certain ration from their income based on the principle of without balance.
This kind of endowment insurance mode applies generation transformation, which means this generation of employee will pay pension fund for the last generation, which can avoid the influence of pension and inflation and ratio. In fact, this is a kind of fiancial process.
Fension fund mode will accumulate amount of capital for paying the debet in future, and all of the pay and investment will pay in current value. In pension fund mode, the main process is new wmpolyee will be forced to join in endowment insurance plan, which will be charged from income in some certain ratio, input into account. As the long term deposit fund, the amount of money will belong to employee.When the employee retired, the accumulate deposite will pay to employee in each month.
The endownment insurance institute is influenced by key factors and changed follow the change of economy environment. By using the reference on the endowment insurance institute transformation, we can obtain the shortcomings in running the endowment insurance institute in China.
By using the economics mode to analysis the present running endowment insurance institutes in Chia, we can get the conclusion that the present mode on endowment insurance institution should be the integration of pay as you go and fund mode.The integrated mode can fully express the function of endowment insurance institute.
The establishment of endowment insurance institute just one side of endowment insurance institute, on the other side, the running efficiency and evaluation are also the important aspect for construction of endownment insurance institute. For measuring the running efficiency of endowment insurance institute, the CRS and VRS models of DEA are applied in this dissertation. Based on the CRS hypothetic, there are 4 years are DEA efficient by using the history from 1989 to 2007, denoted as 1989, 1990, 1991 and 2007. After 1992, the running efficiency obviously decreased and reached to the bottom in 1998. The change curve following the CRS efficiency is expreesed as a parabola. With the development of reforme in endowment insurance institute, the running efficiency is raising from 1999 and reach the maximum in 2007. In the view of scale return the variable, the VRS efficient year is 1992, 2001, 2005 and 2006.
By using DEA to calculate the regional running efficiency, there are serious unequribrium in regional development on endowment insurance institute, which can reflect on different regions and between rural and city. By using DEA efficiency, DMU19 (Guangdong Province) is CRS efficiency and the other DMUs are inefficient DMUs. The CRS efficiency value of Zhejiang Province is 0.89715 and Shanxi Province is 0.87033, which indicate they are ranked in seond and third position separately. The DEA efficiency of Shanghai is 0.58646. All of the results can show the running efficiency of endowment insurance institute have huge gap.
By analysis on the rural resident endowment insurance institute, the coverage of the institute is pretty low which are all lower than 30%. The coverage of Shanghai (occupied 27.85%), Jiangsu (occupied 23.93%), Shandong (occupied 21.26%), Zhejiang (occupied 20.49%) and Beijing (occupied 18.06%). On the same time, the coverage of Guizhou province is 0.22%. Because of the limitment of endownment insurance institute in rural region, the rural institutions are lattered than cities.
By using questionnaires and survey, we can get the satisfaction degree from retire population. Following the survey, the satisfaction on pension amount, increase ration and government employee pension gap, which are all reflect on the shortcoming on management in endowment insurance institutions. On the other hand, the knowledge about endowment insurance institute for each aging people is absence. Thereforem we should enforce the education on employees on endownment insurance institutions.
By using the international comparation, system key factors identification, economics model analysis and mesurment on running efficiency, we can get the mesures and strategy on endowment insurance institute, which include considering both of fair and efficiency in endownment insurance institution design, enhancing the macro pension output design, optimizing organization structure in endowment insurance institute, enhancing management on the running of endownment insurance institution, and adding more supplement pention mode in endowment insurance institute.
首先,鉴于发达国家的养老保险制度安排较我国早且比较完善和成熟,实际的操作模式也比较丰富,本文从养老保险制度组织模式、组织结构及主体受益程度等多个层面对德国、瑞典、美国、日本、新加坡、智利等国家的养老保险制度与中国进行比较与分析。通过OECD统计数据的比较,可获得我国养老保险制度运行中存在的差距和启示。
其次,养老保险制度安排是众多系统因素相互影响及作用的结果,这些系统因素包括政府相关因素、企事业单位相关因素、个人相关因素及社会相关因素等等。为从系统内部获得养老保险制度的关键影响因素,本文采用DEMATEL方法,从定量分析的角度对养老保险制度众多影响因素进行了辨识,从而获得了养老保险制度确立的关键要素。
再次,养老保险制度是在关键要素的相互作用下,伴随社会经济环境的变化而逐渐变迁的一个过程。通过对我国职工养老保险制度变迁演化过程的追踪,可以获得目前我国养老保险制度安排存在的弊端与不足。本文利用制度经济学的优化模型和关键要素的整合分析可确定我国养老保险制度安排的优化模式。
第四,养老保险制度确立只是养老保险制度研究的一个方面,其组织管理及运行效率的测算与评估也是增强我国养老保险制度安排的重要内容。本文利用DEA算法对我国的养老保险制度变迁及区域运行效率进行了测算,获得了我国养老保险制度的运行状况。为进一步从参保人的视角测度养老保险制度的运行状况,本文以吉林省为实证研究对象,通过调研问卷获得了离退休人员对现行养老保险制度的运行的满意度分析。
最后,根据本文的国际比较,系统要素辨识,经济分析和运行效率研究,获得了我国养老保险制度优化的对策、措施与建议,并确定了养老保险制度改革的方向与路径。
Endowment insurance institution is a kind of society insurance which is arranged by country and society for resolving the issue of retirement. The goals of endowment insurance institute is enhancing the capability of labor for facing adventures in the stage of retirement and making up the shortage on family raise. The main method of endoement insuarancce institution is providing some pension for labor when she or he retires. With the transfering of society and developing of macro background of society, the family number is reducing and the relationship in family is fading. In the restricting of this society environment, endowment insurance institution becomes the main dependence of retire people.
The endowment insurance istitutions is the core content in social security institutions in China. The endowment institution in China had passed the establish stage, adjust and development stage, pause stage and reforme and development stage, and we are staying in the stage of reforme and development. However, there are many of isuues which should be resoled in the endowment insurance institution in China, which include the isuue of fund gap and empety account, the low level of integeration, society aging and generation transformation, tax reforme on enterprises, agricultural population and issue of peasant joining, etc. Therefore, the studies on economic analysis and running efficiency on endowment insurance institutions in China is significant and meaniful.
By referencing on the research on endowment institution arrangement, optimal economics model and running efficiency, the main study orientiations in this dissertation are identified, which include international comparation, system key factor identification, trendency forecast, analysis on optimal economics models and measuring on running efficiency. Based on the theory of institutional economics, welfare economics, humanism and society economics, development economics and system engineering, we can study the endowment insurance institution in more in-depth way.
The establishment and running of endowment insurance institution in developed countries are ealier and more perfect than China. Comparing the organization mode, organization structure and benefit of aging in Germany, Sweden, USA, Japan, Singapore, Chile to China, we can get some useful inspiration in establishing of endowment insurance institution. By using the statistic data on GDP, aging ratio and endowment fund in Germany, Sweden, USA, Japan, Singapore, Korea, Chile and China, we can obtain the gap information. By using the information obtained in international comparation, we should establish our endowmwnt insurance insititution based on the realistic conditions of China. In the arrangement of endowment insurance institution, we should pay more attention to cultivate the knowledge structure of resident, construct endowment insurance system based on realistics, chose corresponding fund mode, establish government administrate management system, marketing and optimal modes.
Using the game theory analysis between enterprises and government, influencing factor analysis and in endowment insurance institute, there are 28 factors which reflect government, enterprises, humanbeing and society environment. By using DEMATEL methodology, the 28 factors can be ranked by the degree of importance in endownment insurance institution. As the indentification result, the key influencing factor on government include preference on economy policy (F1), institution running cost (F3), scale of financial payment (F5). The enterprises key factors include running intension of policy (F7), procuding cost in enterprises (F8), tax evation cost in interprises (F12). The employee key factors include avoiding adventure capability (F14), endowment mode (F15), fund substitute ratio (16), payment ratio (17) and income level (21). The society environment key factors include economy conditions of country (23) and corresponding institutions and law (F24).
Because of pressure from the aging issue happened in proverty condition and multiple dimensions payment, latent debet and transferring cost, the running of endowment institution becomes more difficult in China. Based on the information of factors indentification, government should take the key factors into account when we reforme the endowment insurance institution system, which can enhance the management capablicy and running efficiency on endowment insurance institution.
Using the statistic data of endowment insurance fund income, endowment insurance fund output, employee number joining endowment insurance and retirement people number from 1989 to 2007, we can calculate the regression ffunction for each index. Based on the regression function, we can forecaste the corresponding data from 2009 to 2030. By analysising the data of forecast, the endowment fund balance keeps in the trend of increasing, which can provid the feasibility on applying the fund mode. For indentifying the optimal reforme path, the running mode of endowment insurance institution, adventure investment and debet crisis anaysis on endowment insurance institution and payment game process are stidies in the dissertation.
There are two kinds of modes present in endowment insurance system, denoted as Pay-as-you-go mode and pension fund mode. Pay as you go mode origined from Europe, which collect penstion fund from all of society by society insurance institutes, on the same time, enterprises and employees will be collect some money in certain ration from their income based on the principle of without balance.
This kind of endowment insurance mode applies generation transformation, which means this generation of employee will pay pension fund for the last generation, which can avoid the influence of pension and inflation and ratio. In fact, this is a kind of fiancial process.
Fension fund mode will accumulate amount of capital for paying the debet in future, and all of the pay and investment will pay in current value. In pension fund mode, the main process is new wmpolyee will be forced to join in endowment insurance plan, which will be charged from income in some certain ratio, input into account. As the long term deposit fund, the amount of money will belong to employee.When the employee retired, the accumulate deposite will pay to employee in each month.
The endownment insurance institute is influenced by key factors and changed follow the change of economy environment. By using the reference on the endowment insurance institute transformation, we can obtain the shortcomings in running the endowment insurance institute in China.
By using the economics mode to analysis the present running endowment insurance institutes in Chia, we can get the conclusion that the present mode on endowment insurance institution should be the integration of pay as you go and fund mode.The integrated mode can fully express the function of endowment insurance institute.
The establishment of endowment insurance institute just one side of endowment insurance institute, on the other side, the running efficiency and evaluation are also the important aspect for construction of endownment insurance institute. For measuring the running efficiency of endowment insurance institute, the CRS and VRS models of DEA are applied in this dissertation. Based on the CRS hypothetic, there are 4 years are DEA efficient by using the history from 1989 to 2007, denoted as 1989, 1990, 1991 and 2007. After 1992, the running efficiency obviously decreased and reached to the bottom in 1998. The change curve following the CRS efficiency is expreesed as a parabola. With the development of reforme in endowment insurance institute, the running efficiency is raising from 1999 and reach the maximum in 2007. In the view of scale return the variable, the VRS efficient year is 1992, 2001, 2005 and 2006.
By using DEA to calculate the regional running efficiency, there are serious unequribrium in regional development on endowment insurance institute, which can reflect on different regions and between rural and city. By using DEA efficiency, DMU19 (Guangdong Province) is CRS efficiency and the other DMUs are inefficient DMUs. The CRS efficiency value of Zhejiang Province is 0.89715 and Shanxi Province is 0.87033, which indicate they are ranked in seond and third position separately. The DEA efficiency of Shanghai is 0.58646. All of the results can show the running efficiency of endowment insurance institute have huge gap.
By analysis on the rural resident endowment insurance institute, the coverage of the institute is pretty low which are all lower than 30%. The coverage of Shanghai (occupied 27.85%), Jiangsu (occupied 23.93%), Shandong (occupied 21.26%), Zhejiang (occupied 20.49%) and Beijing (occupied 18.06%). On the same time, the coverage of Guizhou province is 0.22%. Because of the limitment of endownment insurance institute in rural region, the rural institutions are lattered than cities.
By using questionnaires and survey, we can get the satisfaction degree from retire population. Following the survey, the satisfaction on pension amount, increase ration and government employee pension gap, which are all reflect on the shortcoming on management in endowment insurance institutions. On the other hand, the knowledge about endowment insurance institute for each aging people is absence. Thereforem we should enforce the education on employees on endownment insurance institutions.
By using the international comparation, system key factors identification, economics model analysis and mesurment on running efficiency, we can get the mesures and strategy on endowment insurance institute, which include considering both of fair and efficiency in endownment insurance institution design, enhancing the macro pension output design, optimizing organization structure in endowment insurance institute, enhancing management on the running of endownment insurance institution, and adding more supplement pention mode in endowment insurance institute.
引文
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