长春市信用联社中小企业信贷风险评估和控制研究
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摘要
本文以长春市信用联社的中小企业贷款业务为研究对象,围绕其中小企业信贷决策风险评估、风险防范与风险管理从理论和实务两方面展开研究。
首先,根据长春市信用联社的基本情况和发展的市场战略,分析总结了中小企业信贷业务的现状及业务特点;其次,从中小企业信贷风险形成的内部因素和外部因素两方面,分析研究了长春市信用联社中小企业信贷风险的成因;再次,通过分析对信贷风险影响较大的财务和非财务指标,利用专家评分的方法建立了长春市信用联社中小企业信贷风险评估指标体系;基于回归支持向量积构建多分类模型,建立了长春市信用联社中小企业信贷风险决策评估模型,并用长春市信用联社43家中小企业的贷款做了实证分析;最后,为了防范和化解中小企业信贷风险,提出了长春市信用联社中小企业信贷风险预警及风险控制与管理体系。
Research on credit risk of small-and-medium-sized enterprises is the important research project in financial field. At present, there have been a lot of papers and monographs about the study of credit risk in the domestic and international financial field. But, only a few contents are worth to learn for the local fiancial institution. Therefor, enforcing the strength of research on the credit risk of small-and-medium-sized enterprises is more and more important for ChangChun Rural Credit Cooperative such as local fiancial institution bank. Based on this fact, from both theoretical and practical aspects, a thorough investigation is carried on small-and-medium-sized enterprises credit risk assessment and management of ChangChun Rural Credit Cooperative out in this paper.
Firstly, characteristic analysis of small-and-medium-sized enterprises credit operations and credit risk are carrried on for ChangChun Rural Credit Cooperative. From its inception, explore and development business ideas are always put at a premium in ChangChun Rural Credit Cooperative. The management idea-focusing on the central task of economic benefits and making the marketing the guidance is put forward by ChangChun Rural Credit Cooperative. Thus, the long-closed way of thinking, old-fashioned business concept and traditional management style under the planned economic system are exploded, and the concept of economic benefit and market is enforced in the further work. In 2005, ChangChun Rural Credit Cooperative put forward the business idea-occupation in the near future and standing firm in farest future. In the same year, they put forward the market positions which are that small-and-medium-sized enterprises are viewed as partners and that fostering and developing the growing small-and-medium-sized enterprises. This development idea established the business model and emphasis marketing concept for ChangChun Rural Credit Cooperative in the future. Based on this market strategy, a detailed analysis of the current small-and-medium-sized enterprises credit risk is carried out, the conclusion is drawn that small-and-medium-sized enterprises credit risk is of complex formation, Risk--focused, objective and various forms. Compared with state-owned commercial banks, ChangChun Rural Credit Cooperative credit risk is of more complexity. In the mean time, because Changchun Rural Credit Cooperative is a legal person unit, its credit risk and loss must be taken on by them. This concentrative assumption of credit risk has increased the difficult to resist and resolve credit risk for ChangChun Rural Credit Cooperative.
Secondly, Analysis to the Cause of small-and-medium-sized enterprises credit risk. With the social and economic development, small-and-medium-sized enterprises have become an important force to promoting the country's economic construction. Small-and-medium-sized enterprises have played an important and irreplaceable role in some aspects, such as enhancing market competition power, promoting economic growth, increasing employment opportunity, maintaining social stability, reducing the impact of the economical circle, increasing farmers' income and shifting surplus rural labor. However, the development of small-and-medium-sized enterprises is still in a dilemma, and the biggest difficulty is the lack of financial support. Due to small-and-medium-sized enterprises’own defect, the loan bank, social environment and so on, these disadvantageous factors make small-and-medium-sized enterprises suffered discrimination on financial support by the loan bank. Therefore, the detailed analysis on the causes of credit risk is crucial. ChangChun Rural Credit Cooperative always acts as the local financial institution supporting the small-and-medium-sized enterprises. The main problem of risk management in the loan bank shows weak awareness of risk and insufficient management, weakness of risk management basis and common existence of virtue risk. In addition, Administrative regulations are irregular, a series of problems lie in accountancy in small-and-medium-sized enterprises for its short time, weak basis, small scale in foundation, the risk resistance ability is weak, effective asset is deficiency, the property legal document is incomplete, these factors induce that the small-and-medium-sized enterprises cannot transact the busseness of mortgage guarantee. The subjective inner factors of loans difficulties and high credit risk are many sides, such as the backward idea of the enterprises, lack of communication with bank management, customary raising money in folk, the lower legal quality of small and medium sized enterprises and indifference of the legal concept, lack of credit concept, low quality of managers, imperfect accounting system of enterprises, and so on. Even if the risk caused by these subjective inner factors has been improved, external unfavorable factors, such as the social environment, the state's macroeconomic policies, etc., will cause the occurrence of the credit risk. As far as ChangChun Rural Credit Cooperative is concerned, through the analysis of internal and external factors of credit risk in small and medium sized enterprises, we learn what the problems of the cause of credit risk are. All of these work laid the foundations for further study on the design of credit decision risk assessment model and measure establishment of credit risk management and control.
Thirdly, the credit decision risk assessment model of small and medium sized enterprise. In the first place, the practice of risk assessment in foreign banks is overviewed and the present method of assessing credit risk of small and medium sized enterprise in ChangChun Rural Credit Cooperative is introduced. In the second place, combined the actuality and the characteristic of ChangChun Rural Credit Cooperative' crediting and credit business with the oversea studying experience, after analysed the characteristics of management in small and medium sized enterprise, we putforward the financial index and non-financial index that reflect the the ability of operating capital, debt paying ability and main operator's quality in small and medium sized enterprise. These indexes are total assets reward rate, sales net profit ratio, accounts receivable turnover, inventory turnover ratio, current ratio, asset-liability ratio and the increase rate of main business revenue etc. seven financial indexes and prospect of industry, the position of industry, the financial management level of enterprises, the ways of guarantee, industry experience of the professional managers, management experience of the professional managers, social public relation, enterprise's credit record, cooperative sincerity to accepted investigation, the professional managers’moral character; etc. ten non-financial indexes. These indexes reflect the financial status of enterprises from fluidity, profitability, the enterprises' growth and operation etc. different point of view. These indexes also give prominent to the indicator of cash-flow. From industry environment, macro-policy, level of enterprise management and managers’experence and quality, credit quality etc. different point of view, these are objective factors that influence the development of enterprise. Then, we construct the credit decision risk assession model based on regression support vector machine for multiclass (CDRASVM), and establish the credit decision risk assession process based on CDRASVM. Empirical study validates that CDRASVM model is effectiveness and feasibility. And, Taken loan busseness of fourty three small and medium sized enterprises in ChangChun Rural Credit Cooperative as an illustration, Empirical analysis is conducted.
Fourthly, credit risk early warning system and mechanism of risk evasion are built up. In a general way, because there is a period of time from risk appearance to loss appearance, loans enterprises should be carried out all-round dynamic analysis. So that we can find out the early warning signal of credit risk, point out the risks and make measures timely to avoid risk. For example, decision managers are disappearance or unreachable, customer deposits changes abnormally, interest payment or loan payment is delayed, we should make measures when these signals appear. When financial institution as creditor discover that production and management of loan enterprise has been or is being in difficulty that endanger credit security, they withdraw credit funds from customers initiatively or passively, so as to prevent and resolve potential credit risk. This measure is called as mechanism of risk evasion. When the following happens, the enterprise is in arrears with the due loans principal and interest, products are overloading and unsalable, enterprise appearce halt of production abnormally, heavy losses or insolvency and deficit, voluntary bankruptcy and bankruptcy liquidation, financial institution may make measures to prevent and resolve potential credit risk.
Fifthly, the framework of credit risk control and management of small and medium sized enterprise in ChangChun Rural Credit Cooperative is constructed. Every link of financial institution's operation and management brings risks. Risk is not terrible, the key is how to deal with and prevent, control and resolve them. Enhancing credit risk control and management and guaranteeing the safety of capital are the first important task of financial institution operation and management, also are prerequisite and guarantee of development and expansion. Rural Credit Cooperatives managers and employees should attach great importance to the credit risk management and clearly recognized that the presentive credit risk is still high. Therefor, establishing and perfecting the operation flow of credit busseness of small and medium sized enterprise, finishing corresponding rules and regulations, making the process more scientific and rationalize, making the operation more standardized, these guarantee the sound development of credit buseness of small and medium sized enterprise. In this paper, through analyse the organization structure of credit buseness, business process, credit products, and risk management mechanism, staff quality etc., we design and make the corresponding credit risk management system. A firewall and sound risk prevention system can be constructed for the credit buseness of small and medium sized enterprise in ChangChun Rural Credit Cooperative.
首先,根据长春市信用联社的基本情况和发展的市场战略,分析总结了中小企业信贷业务的现状及业务特点;其次,从中小企业信贷风险形成的内部因素和外部因素两方面,分析研究了长春市信用联社中小企业信贷风险的成因;再次,通过分析对信贷风险影响较大的财务和非财务指标,利用专家评分的方法建立了长春市信用联社中小企业信贷风险评估指标体系;基于回归支持向量积构建多分类模型,建立了长春市信用联社中小企业信贷风险决策评估模型,并用长春市信用联社43家中小企业的贷款做了实证分析;最后,为了防范和化解中小企业信贷风险,提出了长春市信用联社中小企业信贷风险预警及风险控制与管理体系。
Research on credit risk of small-and-medium-sized enterprises is the important research project in financial field. At present, there have been a lot of papers and monographs about the study of credit risk in the domestic and international financial field. But, only a few contents are worth to learn for the local fiancial institution. Therefor, enforcing the strength of research on the credit risk of small-and-medium-sized enterprises is more and more important for ChangChun Rural Credit Cooperative such as local fiancial institution bank. Based on this fact, from both theoretical and practical aspects, a thorough investigation is carried on small-and-medium-sized enterprises credit risk assessment and management of ChangChun Rural Credit Cooperative out in this paper.
Firstly, characteristic analysis of small-and-medium-sized enterprises credit operations and credit risk are carrried on for ChangChun Rural Credit Cooperative. From its inception, explore and development business ideas are always put at a premium in ChangChun Rural Credit Cooperative. The management idea-focusing on the central task of economic benefits and making the marketing the guidance is put forward by ChangChun Rural Credit Cooperative. Thus, the long-closed way of thinking, old-fashioned business concept and traditional management style under the planned economic system are exploded, and the concept of economic benefit and market is enforced in the further work. In 2005, ChangChun Rural Credit Cooperative put forward the business idea-occupation in the near future and standing firm in farest future. In the same year, they put forward the market positions which are that small-and-medium-sized enterprises are viewed as partners and that fostering and developing the growing small-and-medium-sized enterprises. This development idea established the business model and emphasis marketing concept for ChangChun Rural Credit Cooperative in the future. Based on this market strategy, a detailed analysis of the current small-and-medium-sized enterprises credit risk is carried out, the conclusion is drawn that small-and-medium-sized enterprises credit risk is of complex formation, Risk--focused, objective and various forms. Compared with state-owned commercial banks, ChangChun Rural Credit Cooperative credit risk is of more complexity. In the mean time, because Changchun Rural Credit Cooperative is a legal person unit, its credit risk and loss must be taken on by them. This concentrative assumption of credit risk has increased the difficult to resist and resolve credit risk for ChangChun Rural Credit Cooperative.
Secondly, Analysis to the Cause of small-and-medium-sized enterprises credit risk. With the social and economic development, small-and-medium-sized enterprises have become an important force to promoting the country's economic construction. Small-and-medium-sized enterprises have played an important and irreplaceable role in some aspects, such as enhancing market competition power, promoting economic growth, increasing employment opportunity, maintaining social stability, reducing the impact of the economical circle, increasing farmers' income and shifting surplus rural labor. However, the development of small-and-medium-sized enterprises is still in a dilemma, and the biggest difficulty is the lack of financial support. Due to small-and-medium-sized enterprises’own defect, the loan bank, social environment and so on, these disadvantageous factors make small-and-medium-sized enterprises suffered discrimination on financial support by the loan bank. Therefore, the detailed analysis on the causes of credit risk is crucial. ChangChun Rural Credit Cooperative always acts as the local financial institution supporting the small-and-medium-sized enterprises. The main problem of risk management in the loan bank shows weak awareness of risk and insufficient management, weakness of risk management basis and common existence of virtue risk. In addition, Administrative regulations are irregular, a series of problems lie in accountancy in small-and-medium-sized enterprises for its short time, weak basis, small scale in foundation, the risk resistance ability is weak, effective asset is deficiency, the property legal document is incomplete, these factors induce that the small-and-medium-sized enterprises cannot transact the busseness of mortgage guarantee. The subjective inner factors of loans difficulties and high credit risk are many sides, such as the backward idea of the enterprises, lack of communication with bank management, customary raising money in folk, the lower legal quality of small and medium sized enterprises and indifference of the legal concept, lack of credit concept, low quality of managers, imperfect accounting system of enterprises, and so on. Even if the risk caused by these subjective inner factors has been improved, external unfavorable factors, such as the social environment, the state's macroeconomic policies, etc., will cause the occurrence of the credit risk. As far as ChangChun Rural Credit Cooperative is concerned, through the analysis of internal and external factors of credit risk in small and medium sized enterprises, we learn what the problems of the cause of credit risk are. All of these work laid the foundations for further study on the design of credit decision risk assessment model and measure establishment of credit risk management and control.
Thirdly, the credit decision risk assessment model of small and medium sized enterprise. In the first place, the practice of risk assessment in foreign banks is overviewed and the present method of assessing credit risk of small and medium sized enterprise in ChangChun Rural Credit Cooperative is introduced. In the second place, combined the actuality and the characteristic of ChangChun Rural Credit Cooperative' crediting and credit business with the oversea studying experience, after analysed the characteristics of management in small and medium sized enterprise, we putforward the financial index and non-financial index that reflect the the ability of operating capital, debt paying ability and main operator's quality in small and medium sized enterprise. These indexes are total assets reward rate, sales net profit ratio, accounts receivable turnover, inventory turnover ratio, current ratio, asset-liability ratio and the increase rate of main business revenue etc. seven financial indexes and prospect of industry, the position of industry, the financial management level of enterprises, the ways of guarantee, industry experience of the professional managers, management experience of the professional managers, social public relation, enterprise's credit record, cooperative sincerity to accepted investigation, the professional managers’moral character; etc. ten non-financial indexes. These indexes reflect the financial status of enterprises from fluidity, profitability, the enterprises' growth and operation etc. different point of view. These indexes also give prominent to the indicator of cash-flow. From industry environment, macro-policy, level of enterprise management and managers’experence and quality, credit quality etc. different point of view, these are objective factors that influence the development of enterprise. Then, we construct the credit decision risk assession model based on regression support vector machine for multiclass (CDRASVM), and establish the credit decision risk assession process based on CDRASVM. Empirical study validates that CDRASVM model is effectiveness and feasibility. And, Taken loan busseness of fourty three small and medium sized enterprises in ChangChun Rural Credit Cooperative as an illustration, Empirical analysis is conducted.
Fourthly, credit risk early warning system and mechanism of risk evasion are built up. In a general way, because there is a period of time from risk appearance to loss appearance, loans enterprises should be carried out all-round dynamic analysis. So that we can find out the early warning signal of credit risk, point out the risks and make measures timely to avoid risk. For example, decision managers are disappearance or unreachable, customer deposits changes abnormally, interest payment or loan payment is delayed, we should make measures when these signals appear. When financial institution as creditor discover that production and management of loan enterprise has been or is being in difficulty that endanger credit security, they withdraw credit funds from customers initiatively or passively, so as to prevent and resolve potential credit risk. This measure is called as mechanism of risk evasion. When the following happens, the enterprise is in arrears with the due loans principal and interest, products are overloading and unsalable, enterprise appearce halt of production abnormally, heavy losses or insolvency and deficit, voluntary bankruptcy and bankruptcy liquidation, financial institution may make measures to prevent and resolve potential credit risk.
Fifthly, the framework of credit risk control and management of small and medium sized enterprise in ChangChun Rural Credit Cooperative is constructed. Every link of financial institution's operation and management brings risks. Risk is not terrible, the key is how to deal with and prevent, control and resolve them. Enhancing credit risk control and management and guaranteeing the safety of capital are the first important task of financial institution operation and management, also are prerequisite and guarantee of development and expansion. Rural Credit Cooperatives managers and employees should attach great importance to the credit risk management and clearly recognized that the presentive credit risk is still high. Therefor, establishing and perfecting the operation flow of credit busseness of small and medium sized enterprise, finishing corresponding rules and regulations, making the process more scientific and rationalize, making the operation more standardized, these guarantee the sound development of credit buseness of small and medium sized enterprise. In this paper, through analyse the organization structure of credit buseness, business process, credit products, and risk management mechanism, staff quality etc., we design and make the corresponding credit risk management system. A firewall and sound risk prevention system can be constructed for the credit buseness of small and medium sized enterprise in ChangChun Rural Credit Cooperative.
引文
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[2]詹原瑞.银行信用风险的现代度量与管理[M].北京:经济科学出版社, 2004年11月.
[3]杨军.银行信用风险-理论、模型和实证分析[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社, 2004年9月.
[4]林威.中小企业发展与金融支持[D].福州:福建师范大学, 2004年.
[5]赵伟.农村信用社运行风险监测与预警系统研究[D].泰安:山东农业大学, 2006年.
[6]蒋桂湘.我国农村信用社金融风险研究[D].南宁:广西大学, 2006年.
[7]梁亮.我国农村信用社贷款信用风险管理研究[D].成都:西南财经大学, 2004年.
[8]乐林平.我国商业银行信贷风险管理研究[D].南昌:江西财经大学, 2006年.
[9]刘学之,李志杰,蒋来.我国中小企业信贷融资管理创新问题探析[J].社会科学家, 2006(6).
[10]赵国忻.中小企业信贷风险控制研究[J].当代经济, 2006(10).
[11]邱玉莲,徐先甫.中小企业信贷融资问题研究[J].企业改革与发展, 2005(3).
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