房地产价格波动与金融稳定研究
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摘要
出于对通货膨胀危害严重性的认识，长期以来各国中央银行一直将物价稳定作为货币政策的主要目标。20世纪80年代以来，主要国家和地区的通货膨胀得到有效控制，这在一定程度上为宏观经济稳定持续发展提供了必要前提。与此形成鲜明对照的是，伴随着经济全球化和金融自由化，股票、房地产等资产市场接连发生了膨胀与紧缩的巨大波动，并导致严重的金融危机，20世纪80年代日本泡沫经济、90年代亚洲金融危机和2007年美国次贷危机都与房地产价格大幅波动有关。房地产业是一个资本密集型行业，其发展离不开金融机构信贷资金的支持，而房地产价格过度波动引发泡沫现象的概率很高，加之银行业自身的经营特点使其具有天生的脆弱性，两者的结合将使金融稳定容易受到房地产价格波动的影响。研究房地产价格波动，特别是房地产价格下跌对金融稳定的影响对我国目前房地产市场调控有一定的理论和实践价值。
从理论角度看，房地产实物资产和虚拟资产兼有的特殊属性，决定了房地产的价格不仅取决于其居住效用，还取决于房地产的投资收益。房地产业是专业性很强的行业，产品的异质性决定了交易过程中存在典型的信息不对称，房地产企业、购房人、金融机构之间非对称信息博弈的均衡决定了房地产价格内在上涨动力和信贷资金流入机制。如果金融环境宽松，或政府在引导房地产业发展中存在失误，房地产可能出现泡沫，泡沫一旦崩溃会通过银行信贷风险暴露、流动性冲击、加剧信息不对称等途径影响金融稳定。
我国房地产市场和房地产金融在1998年住房制度改革以来快速发展，但由于保障性住房发展滞后，偏重于通过市场化推动房地产业发展，供需失衡使商品房市场长期存在价格上涨压力，部分城市存在明显的房地产泡沫。住房贷款证券化（Mortgage-Backed Securities，MBS）、房地产投资信托基金（Real Estate InvestmentTrusts，REITs）仍处于试点或探索阶段，房地产金融市场过分依赖商业银行贷款资金供给，风险集中于银行体系，给金融稳定埋下隐患。实证分析表明近几年我国房地产市场价格和银行房地产信贷之间存在明显的因果关系，而通过信贷融资参与的房价上涨蕴含较大的金融风险。
在房地产价格回调的背景下，应该关注房地产企业偿债能力和房地产按揭贷款安全性，采取稳妥渐进的调控方式，需要选择性货币政策工具、宏观审慎监管、完善房地产金融支持方式、构建房地产发展长效机制等措施平抑房地产价格波动，维护金融稳定。
本文创新之处在于：
一是本文系统回顾我国房地产金融的发展历程，特别是1998年以来房地产行业运行、价格变化和金融机构信贷资金之间的内在联系。从日本泡沫经济和美国次贷危机中可以发现资产价格泡沫膨胀和崩溃对金融稳定的影响，关键在于泡沫形成过程中信贷融资以及杠杆机构直接参与的程度。与国外相比我国房地产融资杠杆率不高，但房地产金融市场以银行信贷为主导的单一融资格局，使房地产价格波动带来的风险汇集在商业银行。
二是重点分析房地产价格回落对信贷资金安全、金融稳定的影响。从理论上讲资产价格泡沫有三种可能的运行方式：1、短时间内大幅下跌，泡沫破灭；2、价格长时间内缓慢下跌，价格逐步向价值回归，泡沫趋于消失；3、泡沫存在的市场条件仍然存在，泡沫被容忍而持续存在。本文认为我国房价快速上涨使部分城市存在房地产泡沫，但已不具备泡沫持续存在的经济、社会基础，关键是通过灵活调控实现新建商品房价格小幅平稳回落，在2到3年内居民收入不断提高的基础上，达到“房价合理回归”的调控目标；同时采取货币政策、宏观审慎、金融创新等措施维护金融稳定。
For the understanding of the serious hazard of the inflation, the central bank has putprice stability as the main monetary policy objective for a long time. Since the1980s, theinflation of the major countries and regions in the world has been effectively controlled,this provided a necessary precondition for macroeconomic stability and sustaineddevelopment in a certain extent. In sharp contrast with this, along with economicglobalization and financial liberalization, stocks, a spate of large fluctuations of theexpansion and contraction in real estate and other asset markets, caused serious financialcrisis, such as1980s Japan's bubble economy,1990s Asian financial crisis and the2007U.S. subprime mortgage crisis. The real estate is a capital-intensive industry, and itsdevelopment can not do without the support of financial institutions, credit funds. Realestate price high may induce probability of excessive volatility to create bubble, and withbanking industry itself inherently vulnerability, the combination of them will make thefinancial stability vulnerable to the fluctuations of the real estate price. There are sometheoretical and practical values about studying on the fluctuations in real estate price,especially fall of the price on the financial stability during China's current real estatemarket regulation.
From the perspective of theory, due to real estate with special attributes of bothphysical assets and virtual assets, the determination of the price not only depends on theirhousing utility, also depends on the real estate investment income. Real estate is a highlyspecialized industry and the heterogeneity of the product determines the typicalasymmetric information during transaction process. The game of asymmetric informationamong real estate companies, buyers and commercial banks decides inherent upwardmomentum of real estate price and credit fund excessive putting in the real estate industry.If there is a relaxed financial environment or government mismanagement in the real estateindustry, there will be a bubble in the real estate market. The collapse of the bubble will effect a serious threat on financial stability through the bank credit risk exposure, liquidityshock, and exacerbate the asymmetric information or other ways.
China's real estate market and real estate finance developed rapidly after the housingsystem reform from1998, but due to the slow development of affordable housing and theemphasis on promoting real estate development through market-oriented, the real estateprice has experienced upward pressure for a long time, and in some cities there areobvious the real estate bubble. MBS (Mortgage-Backed Securities) and REITs (Real EstateInvestment Trusts) are being still in experiment or discovery stage. The risk of the realestate finance market over-reliance on commercial bank loan money supply willconcentrate in the banking system, and hide in the Financial Stability. Empirical analysisshows that the causal relationship has existed in the China's real estate market price andbanks real estate credit in recent years. Credit facilities to participate in house price soaringup contain a greater financial risk. In the context of real estate price fall, we should beconcerned about the security of real estate firms' solvency and the safe of real estatemortgage loan, by adopting the safest way of regulation gradual with prior positiveregulation of the monetary policy, macro-prudential supervision, improving real estatefinancial support to build long-term mechanism of the real estate development and othermeasures to stabilize the real estate price fluctuations and maintain financial stability.
1. The paper reviews the development process of the China's real estate finance,especially the intrinsic links between the real estate price and Credit fund of financialinstitutions. From the bubble economy in Japan and the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, wehas found that the impact of the asset price bubble and collapse on financial stability wasthat degree of credit financing and leveraged institutions directly involved in the process ofthe bubble formation. The China's real estate financing leverage ratio was low, the risk offluctuations in real estate price would assemble in commercial banks which was adominant factor at the real estate finance market.
2. The paper focuses on the real estate price fall, which influences on the security ofcredit fund and financial stability. According to the theory, there are three possibleoperating modes about asset price bubble: the first is that Real estate price falls sharply fastand Bubble bursts; the second is that the price falls slowly in a long time and the bubbletends to disappear; the third mode is that the bubble tolerates and persists because themarket conditions are still present. This article shows that there is the real estate bubble in some cities of China when house price rises rapidly, but there is no economic, socialinfrastructure of foam persistently. We think that if the market conditions of real estatebubble do not exist, the most important thing would be to regulate real estate price timelyand moderately for the goal of “Price reasonable return” and take monetary policy,macro-prudential policy, financial innovation or other measures to safeguard financialstability on the basis of continuous improvement of people's income in two to three years.
从理论角度看，房地产实物资产和虚拟资产兼有的特殊属性，决定了房地产的价格不仅取决于其居住效用，还取决于房地产的投资收益。房地产业是专业性很强的行业，产品的异质性决定了交易过程中存在典型的信息不对称，房地产企业、购房人、金融机构之间非对称信息博弈的均衡决定了房地产价格内在上涨动力和信贷资金流入机制。如果金融环境宽松，或政府在引导房地产业发展中存在失误，房地产可能出现泡沫，泡沫一旦崩溃会通过银行信贷风险暴露、流动性冲击、加剧信息不对称等途径影响金融稳定。
我国房地产市场和房地产金融在1998年住房制度改革以来快速发展，但由于保障性住房发展滞后，偏重于通过市场化推动房地产业发展，供需失衡使商品房市场长期存在价格上涨压力，部分城市存在明显的房地产泡沫。住房贷款证券化（Mortgage-Backed Securities，MBS）、房地产投资信托基金（Real Estate InvestmentTrusts，REITs）仍处于试点或探索阶段，房地产金融市场过分依赖商业银行贷款资金供给，风险集中于银行体系，给金融稳定埋下隐患。实证分析表明近几年我国房地产市场价格和银行房地产信贷之间存在明显的因果关系，而通过信贷融资参与的房价上涨蕴含较大的金融风险。
在房地产价格回调的背景下，应该关注房地产企业偿债能力和房地产按揭贷款安全性，采取稳妥渐进的调控方式，需要选择性货币政策工具、宏观审慎监管、完善房地产金融支持方式、构建房地产发展长效机制等措施平抑房地产价格波动，维护金融稳定。
本文创新之处在于：
一是本文系统回顾我国房地产金融的发展历程，特别是1998年以来房地产行业运行、价格变化和金融机构信贷资金之间的内在联系。从日本泡沫经济和美国次贷危机中可以发现资产价格泡沫膨胀和崩溃对金融稳定的影响，关键在于泡沫形成过程中信贷融资以及杠杆机构直接参与的程度。与国外相比我国房地产融资杠杆率不高，但房地产金融市场以银行信贷为主导的单一融资格局，使房地产价格波动带来的风险汇集在商业银行。
二是重点分析房地产价格回落对信贷资金安全、金融稳定的影响。从理论上讲资产价格泡沫有三种可能的运行方式：1、短时间内大幅下跌，泡沫破灭；2、价格长时间内缓慢下跌，价格逐步向价值回归，泡沫趋于消失；3、泡沫存在的市场条件仍然存在，泡沫被容忍而持续存在。本文认为我国房价快速上涨使部分城市存在房地产泡沫，但已不具备泡沫持续存在的经济、社会基础，关键是通过灵活调控实现新建商品房价格小幅平稳回落，在2到3年内居民收入不断提高的基础上，达到“房价合理回归”的调控目标；同时采取货币政策、宏观审慎、金融创新等措施维护金融稳定。
For the understanding of the serious hazard of the inflation, the central bank has putprice stability as the main monetary policy objective for a long time. Since the1980s, theinflation of the major countries and regions in the world has been effectively controlled,this provided a necessary precondition for macroeconomic stability and sustaineddevelopment in a certain extent. In sharp contrast with this, along with economicglobalization and financial liberalization, stocks, a spate of large fluctuations of theexpansion and contraction in real estate and other asset markets, caused serious financialcrisis, such as1980s Japan's bubble economy,1990s Asian financial crisis and the2007U.S. subprime mortgage crisis. The real estate is a capital-intensive industry, and itsdevelopment can not do without the support of financial institutions, credit funds. Realestate price high may induce probability of excessive volatility to create bubble, and withbanking industry itself inherently vulnerability, the combination of them will make thefinancial stability vulnerable to the fluctuations of the real estate price. There are sometheoretical and practical values about studying on the fluctuations in real estate price,especially fall of the price on the financial stability during China's current real estatemarket regulation.
From the perspective of theory, due to real estate with special attributes of bothphysical assets and virtual assets, the determination of the price not only depends on theirhousing utility, also depends on the real estate investment income. Real estate is a highlyspecialized industry and the heterogeneity of the product determines the typicalasymmetric information during transaction process. The game of asymmetric informationamong real estate companies, buyers and commercial banks decides inherent upwardmomentum of real estate price and credit fund excessive putting in the real estate industry.If there is a relaxed financial environment or government mismanagement in the real estateindustry, there will be a bubble in the real estate market. The collapse of the bubble will effect a serious threat on financial stability through the bank credit risk exposure, liquidityshock, and exacerbate the asymmetric information or other ways.
China's real estate market and real estate finance developed rapidly after the housingsystem reform from1998, but due to the slow development of affordable housing and theemphasis on promoting real estate development through market-oriented, the real estateprice has experienced upward pressure for a long time, and in some cities there areobvious the real estate bubble. MBS (Mortgage-Backed Securities) and REITs (Real EstateInvestment Trusts) are being still in experiment or discovery stage. The risk of the realestate finance market over-reliance on commercial bank loan money supply willconcentrate in the banking system, and hide in the Financial Stability. Empirical analysisshows that the causal relationship has existed in the China's real estate market price andbanks real estate credit in recent years. Credit facilities to participate in house price soaringup contain a greater financial risk. In the context of real estate price fall, we should beconcerned about the security of real estate firms' solvency and the safe of real estatemortgage loan, by adopting the safest way of regulation gradual with prior positiveregulation of the monetary policy, macro-prudential supervision, improving real estatefinancial support to build long-term mechanism of the real estate development and othermeasures to stabilize the real estate price fluctuations and maintain financial stability.
1. The paper reviews the development process of the China's real estate finance,especially the intrinsic links between the real estate price and Credit fund of financialinstitutions. From the bubble economy in Japan and the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, wehas found that the impact of the asset price bubble and collapse on financial stability wasthat degree of credit financing and leveraged institutions directly involved in the process ofthe bubble formation. The China's real estate financing leverage ratio was low, the risk offluctuations in real estate price would assemble in commercial banks which was adominant factor at the real estate finance market.
2. The paper focuses on the real estate price fall, which influences on the security ofcredit fund and financial stability. According to the theory, there are three possibleoperating modes about asset price bubble: the first is that Real estate price falls sharply fastand Bubble bursts; the second is that the price falls slowly in a long time and the bubbletends to disappear; the third mode is that the bubble tolerates and persists because themarket conditions are still present. This article shows that there is the real estate bubble in some cities of China when house price rises rapidly, but there is no economic, socialinfrastructure of foam persistently. We think that if the market conditions of real estatebubble do not exist, the most important thing would be to regulate real estate price timelyand moderately for the goal of “Price reasonable return” and take monetary policy,macro-prudential policy, financial innovation or other measures to safeguard financialstability on the basis of continuous improvement of people's income in two to three years.
引文
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5数据来源:《中国统计年鉴》2011
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