马莲河流域水安全研究
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摘要
水资源是人类生存和发展必不可少的自然资源,是经济社会可持续发展和维持生态平衡的重要基础。任何地区、国家的发展都需要足够的水资源作为保障。但随着世界人口的持续增长和经济社会的快速发展,出现了诸多的水安全问题,如水资源短缺、水环境污染、水土流失、洪涝灾害频繁等,并由此引发了一些与水安全有关的其他安全问题,如人身健康安全、粮食安全、经济安全、生态环境安全、社会安全和国家安全等问题。在世界的许多地区,这些问题已经成为危及人类正常生存,制约社会经济的可持续发展,影响环境质量和阻碍人类文明进步的首要环境问题。
水安全问题是一个十分复杂的综合性问题,涉及到的影响因素众多,评价过程繁琐,国内外关于这方面的研究仍处于起步阶段,总体看来,目前关于水安全的研究还是定性研究多,定量研究少,相关研究多,直接研究少,没有形成一个较为系统的理论体系。因此本文选取水安全的量化评价作为水安全研究的主要内容。
在前人研究成果的基础上,分析了目前水安全研究的现状及背景,马莲河流域水安全存在的问题,并根据量化评价的要求,研究建立了水安全评价指标体系建立的原则和方法,并选取1990-2005年的实测数据作为基础,建立水安全的评价指标体系。本文采用熵值法作为评价指标的权值的赋值方法,运用多层次多目标模糊优选模型对马莲河流域进行水安全评价。通过对评价的结果进行分析发现马莲河流域水安全状况总体呈不断恶化的趋势,但在不同的评价要素上还不尽相同,如从饮用水安全及控制灾害的方面分析,马莲河流域水安全最近15年呈现上升的趋势,但从水资源供需矛盾,水资源安全,粮食安全等方面分析,马莲河流域水安全呈现下降的趋势。最后在分析马莲河流域水安全现状及面临的问题上,提出其以后发展的意见和建议。
本文共分为六章。第一章对当前水安全研究的背景、意义及现状进行分析。第二章分析了马莲河流域的区域特点及存在的主要水安全问题。第三章分析了水安全评价指标的确定原则及权重值的确定方法。第四章从模糊数学的角度系统分析了水安全评价模型的原因及方法。第五章采用模糊数学的原理对马莲河流域的水安全状况进行评价。第六章对评价结果进行分析及提出相应的对策措施。
Water resources are essential natural resources for human survival and development. And its also are an important basis for maintaining the economic and social sustainable development and ecological balance. Any developments of region or nation all need enough water resources as a guarantee. But appeared many water safe problem along with the rapid development of keeping on of world population growth and economic society, such as water resources missing, water pollution of the environment, soil erosion and the disaster of Flood and drought multifarious etc., and caused some other safe problems that have relation with water safety from here, such as Human body health safety, Food safety, Economy safety, Eco-environment safety, Social problems, and Safety and national security etc. Many regions in world, these problems are already come endangering mankind normal existence, check and supervision social economy of can keep on a development, influence environment quality and bar mankind civilization progress of initial environment problem.
Water safe problem is one very complicated of comprehensive sex problem. The factor for involving is numerous, it is also tedious to evaluate. In domestic and international, the research concerning this aspect is still placed in a beginning stage. Total see, the research concerning water safety still settles sex research currently many, the fixed amount studies little, related research many, directly study little, have never formed a theories system of system. Therefore this selected works takes the quantity of water safety to turn to evaluate is the main contents of water safety research.
This text refer to the existing studies, analyzed currently the present condition and background of water safety research, the problem of Ma Lian river area water safety existence, and turn the request of evaluation according to the quantity, the research built up the principle and method of water safety evaluation index sign system establishment, and select by examinations a data is foundation for actually measuring of 1990-2005, build up the evaluation index sign of water safety system. And studied Entropy is the power that evaluates index sign to be worth of endow with a value method, make use of the Multi-objective and multilevel fuzzy optimization model target to carry on water safety evaluation to the Ma Lian river area. Pass to the evaluation of the result carry on analysis and discover Ma Lian the river area water safe condition is total to present continuously worsen trend, but still don't exert a homology on the different evaluation main factor, such as the aspect from the drinking water safety and the control disaster analysis, Ma Lian river area water present the buoyant trend for safe recent 15 years, but self-contradict from water resources supply and demand, water resources safety, food safety etc. analyzes, Ma Lian the river area water safety presents the descendent trend. Finally put forward the opinion and suggestion in analyzing Ma Lian the river area water safe present condition and the problem.
This text is totally divided into six chapters. Chapter 1 carries on analysis to background, meaning and present condition of current water safety research. Chapter 2 analyzed the district characteristics of the Ma Lian river area and main water safe problem of the existence. Chapter 3 analyzed water safety evaluation index sign to really settle principle and power to weigh a value to really settle a method. Chapter 4 analyzed the reason and method of water safety evaluation model from the angle system of misty mathematics. Chapter 5 adopts the principle of misty mathematics to carry on an evaluation to the water safe condition of Ma Lian river area. Chapter 6 carries on analysis and puts forward homologous counter plan measure as a result to the evaluation.
水安全问题是一个十分复杂的综合性问题,涉及到的影响因素众多,评价过程繁琐,国内外关于这方面的研究仍处于起步阶段,总体看来,目前关于水安全的研究还是定性研究多,定量研究少,相关研究多,直接研究少,没有形成一个较为系统的理论体系。因此本文选取水安全的量化评价作为水安全研究的主要内容。
在前人研究成果的基础上,分析了目前水安全研究的现状及背景,马莲河流域水安全存在的问题,并根据量化评价的要求,研究建立了水安全评价指标体系建立的原则和方法,并选取1990-2005年的实测数据作为基础,建立水安全的评价指标体系。本文采用熵值法作为评价指标的权值的赋值方法,运用多层次多目标模糊优选模型对马莲河流域进行水安全评价。通过对评价的结果进行分析发现马莲河流域水安全状况总体呈不断恶化的趋势,但在不同的评价要素上还不尽相同,如从饮用水安全及控制灾害的方面分析,马莲河流域水安全最近15年呈现上升的趋势,但从水资源供需矛盾,水资源安全,粮食安全等方面分析,马莲河流域水安全呈现下降的趋势。最后在分析马莲河流域水安全现状及面临的问题上,提出其以后发展的意见和建议。
本文共分为六章。第一章对当前水安全研究的背景、意义及现状进行分析。第二章分析了马莲河流域的区域特点及存在的主要水安全问题。第三章分析了水安全评价指标的确定原则及权重值的确定方法。第四章从模糊数学的角度系统分析了水安全评价模型的原因及方法。第五章采用模糊数学的原理对马莲河流域的水安全状况进行评价。第六章对评价结果进行分析及提出相应的对策措施。
Water resources are essential natural resources for human survival and development. And its also are an important basis for maintaining the economic and social sustainable development and ecological balance. Any developments of region or nation all need enough water resources as a guarantee. But appeared many water safe problem along with the rapid development of keeping on of world population growth and economic society, such as water resources missing, water pollution of the environment, soil erosion and the disaster of Flood and drought multifarious etc., and caused some other safe problems that have relation with water safety from here, such as Human body health safety, Food safety, Economy safety, Eco-environment safety, Social problems, and Safety and national security etc. Many regions in world, these problems are already come endangering mankind normal existence, check and supervision social economy of can keep on a development, influence environment quality and bar mankind civilization progress of initial environment problem.
Water safe problem is one very complicated of comprehensive sex problem. The factor for involving is numerous, it is also tedious to evaluate. In domestic and international, the research concerning this aspect is still placed in a beginning stage. Total see, the research concerning water safety still settles sex research currently many, the fixed amount studies little, related research many, directly study little, have never formed a theories system of system. Therefore this selected works takes the quantity of water safety to turn to evaluate is the main contents of water safety research.
This text refer to the existing studies, analyzed currently the present condition and background of water safety research, the problem of Ma Lian river area water safety existence, and turn the request of evaluation according to the quantity, the research built up the principle and method of water safety evaluation index sign system establishment, and select by examinations a data is foundation for actually measuring of 1990-2005, build up the evaluation index sign of water safety system. And studied Entropy is the power that evaluates index sign to be worth of endow with a value method, make use of the Multi-objective and multilevel fuzzy optimization model target to carry on water safety evaluation to the Ma Lian river area. Pass to the evaluation of the result carry on analysis and discover Ma Lian the river area water safe condition is total to present continuously worsen trend, but still don't exert a homology on the different evaluation main factor, such as the aspect from the drinking water safety and the control disaster analysis, Ma Lian river area water present the buoyant trend for safe recent 15 years, but self-contradict from water resources supply and demand, water resources safety, food safety etc. analyzes, Ma Lian the river area water safety presents the descendent trend. Finally put forward the opinion and suggestion in analyzing Ma Lian the river area water safe present condition and the problem.
This text is totally divided into six chapters. Chapter 1 carries on analysis to background, meaning and present condition of current water safety research. Chapter 2 analyzed the district characteristics of the Ma Lian river area and main water safe problem of the existence. Chapter 3 analyzed water safety evaluation index sign to really settle principle and power to weigh a value to really settle a method. Chapter 4 analyzed the reason and method of water safety evaluation model from the angle system of misty mathematics. Chapter 5 adopts the principle of misty mathematics to carry on an evaluation to the water safe condition of Ma Lian river area. Chapter 6 carries on analysis and puts forward homologous counter plan measure as a result to the evaluation.
引文
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[5]姜文,唐曲.水资源管理学导论[M].北京：化学工业出版社,2005.15-103.
[6]方子云.提供水安全是21世纪现代水利的主要目标——兼介斯德哥尔摩千年国际水会议及海牙部长级会议宣言[J].水利水电科技进展,2001,21(1)：9-10.
[7]李瑞英.呼和浩特水安全与经济社会可持续发展研究[D].2006,11-12.
[8]科菲安南.水安全人类的基本需要和权利[J].水科学进展,2001,12(2)：280.
[9]刘国香.水安全评价模型及保障对策研究[D].2005,18.
[10]Brown L R, B Halwei. China's Water Shortage could Shake World Food Security [J]. World Watch,1998,11(4):10-20.
[21]科菲安南.水安全人类的基本需要和权利[J].水科学进展,2001,12(2)：110-197.
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[14]宋国涛.中国国际环境问题报告[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社,2000.2-12.
[15]贾绍风,张军岩,张士锋.区域水资源压力指数与水资源安全评价指标体系[J].地球科学进展,2002,21(6)：538-545.
[16]夏军.水资源安全的度量：水资源承载力的研究与挑战[J].自然资源学报,2002,17(3)：262-269.
[17]陈家琦.水安全保障问题浅议[J].自然资源学报,2002,17(3)：276-279.
[18]曾畅云,李贵宝.水环境安全的研究进展[J].水利发展研究,2004,(4)：30-33.
[19]陈德敏,张玉飞.水资源法治初探[J].广东水利水电,2004(6)：6-8.
[20]夏军,朱一中.水资源安全的度量：水资源承载力的研究与挑战[J].自然资源,2002,17(3)：262-269
[21]夏军.华北地区水循环与水资源安全：问题与挑战[J].地理科学进展,2002,21(6)：517-526.
[22]王志敏.张掖市水安全的定量评价[D].2006,14-20.
[23]张中生.长江洪涝灾害的可持续发展综合防御对策体系[J].灾害学,1999,14(3)：28-31.
[24]蔡述明.长江中游洪涝灾害的成因与监测决策支持系统的建立[J].地球科学——中国地质大学学报,2001,26(6)：643-647.
[25]万中英,钟茂生.都阳湖区洪涝灾害遥感动态监测系统设计与实现[J].计算机工程与应用,2004,(8)：229-232.
[26]曲华,况明生.建立控制论支持下的长江洪涝灾害管理系统[J].临沂师范学院学报,2004,26(6)：62-66.
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