房地产市场泡沫现象的经济学分析及治理措施
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摘要
房地产业在整个国民经济体系中属于先导性、基础性产业，处于主导产业地位。房地产业以其产业关联度强、带动系数大的特点，成为促进国民经济增长的支柱产业。
改革开放以后，随着计划经济体制向市场经济体制的转变，我国房地产业从80年代初的机关、企事业单位的福利分房到98年的“住房分配货币化”，彻底改变了人们的住房消费观念，有效拉动了社会需求。目前房地产市场正处于发展的第三次高潮中。
本文正是在这样的现实背景下，以近两三年的房地产市场景气指标为依据，对在新一轮增长时期中出现的许多泡沫成分的现状、原因以及所带来的危害进行了详细的论述，并提出了相应的治理措施和政策建议。
本文认为虽然目前我国房地产业整体没有大面积出现“泡沫”，但是局部地区“过热”的现象已经明显的显现，如果不及时加以调整，整个房地产市场将会出现更大的问题，进而波及到国民经济整体的健康发展。
本文首先从对房地产业的简单介绍入手，然后重点从三个方面对过热的迹象进行了分析。第一个方面，对房价的过高进行了剖析。分析房价虚高的原因以及提出了合理房价的标准；第二方面，对空置率问题进行了分析，从空置率的概念入手，对国内外空置率的涵义作了对比，提出了如何修正空置率公式使之更符合我国国情，并对空置率增加的原因进行了分析；第三方面，对当前突出的房地产投资过热进行了探讨。最后，对以上三个方面出现的问题提出了一些个人的建议，包括如何对“房价”进行消肿，抑制商品房价格；调整开发结构，降低空置率；以及如何完善金融制度，引导理性投资，防范金融风险。
Real estate industry belongs to the basic and superior industry and now it is a dominant position. Due to its advantage of strong relevance with other industries it has been the main industry.
With the transform from planned economy system to market economy system after reformation and open real estate industry has changed largely from distributing houses freely in 1980s to selling houses after 1998, the consumers' notion has been changed thoroughly. Real estate industry has brought along the society aggregate demand. Now real estate industry is in the third climax of development.
However more and more foam is emerging in the development of real estate industry. In so circumstance this article is based the data of the late two or three years, and illustrates the present conditions of real estate industry including large amount of foam and reasons why this condition appear and puts forward to some proposes and methods.
The author believes that the foam has appeared in some parts of that even though hasn' t appeared in the whole industry. Unless this condition is adjusted in time, the whole industry will produce more problems and influence further the healthy development of whole economy.
Firstly this article begins with the simple introduction of real estate industry. Secondly this article analyses emphatically from three parts. The first part analyses the reasons of high house price and put forward to the standard of reasonable price. The second part analyses the conception of the rate of empty and compare the domestic and international
concept of the rate of empty, in the same time , the part gives some suggestions how to modify the formula of the rate of empty to be suitable our conditions. The third part discusses the reasons of the excessive investment in real estate industry. In the end, the article gives some suggestions to above three parts. These suggestions include how to lower the price of real estate and how to adjust the structure of real estate open and decrease the rate of empty and how to guide the reasonable investment and guide against risk of financial.
改革开放以后，随着计划经济体制向市场经济体制的转变，我国房地产业从80年代初的机关、企事业单位的福利分房到98年的“住房分配货币化”，彻底改变了人们的住房消费观念，有效拉动了社会需求。目前房地产市场正处于发展的第三次高潮中。
本文正是在这样的现实背景下，以近两三年的房地产市场景气指标为依据，对在新一轮增长时期中出现的许多泡沫成分的现状、原因以及所带来的危害进行了详细的论述，并提出了相应的治理措施和政策建议。
本文认为虽然目前我国房地产业整体没有大面积出现“泡沫”，但是局部地区“过热”的现象已经明显的显现，如果不及时加以调整，整个房地产市场将会出现更大的问题，进而波及到国民经济整体的健康发展。
本文首先从对房地产业的简单介绍入手，然后重点从三个方面对过热的迹象进行了分析。第一个方面，对房价的过高进行了剖析。分析房价虚高的原因以及提出了合理房价的标准；第二方面，对空置率问题进行了分析，从空置率的概念入手，对国内外空置率的涵义作了对比，提出了如何修正空置率公式使之更符合我国国情，并对空置率增加的原因进行了分析；第三方面，对当前突出的房地产投资过热进行了探讨。最后，对以上三个方面出现的问题提出了一些个人的建议，包括如何对“房价”进行消肿，抑制商品房价格；调整开发结构，降低空置率；以及如何完善金融制度，引导理性投资，防范金融风险。
Real estate industry belongs to the basic and superior industry and now it is a dominant position. Due to its advantage of strong relevance with other industries it has been the main industry.
With the transform from planned economy system to market economy system after reformation and open real estate industry has changed largely from distributing houses freely in 1980s to selling houses after 1998, the consumers' notion has been changed thoroughly. Real estate industry has brought along the society aggregate demand. Now real estate industry is in the third climax of development.
However more and more foam is emerging in the development of real estate industry. In so circumstance this article is based the data of the late two or three years, and illustrates the present conditions of real estate industry including large amount of foam and reasons why this condition appear and puts forward to some proposes and methods.
The author believes that the foam has appeared in some parts of that even though hasn' t appeared in the whole industry. Unless this condition is adjusted in time, the whole industry will produce more problems and influence further the healthy development of whole economy.
Firstly this article begins with the simple introduction of real estate industry. Secondly this article analyses emphatically from three parts. The first part analyses the reasons of high house price and put forward to the standard of reasonable price. The second part analyses the conception of the rate of empty and compare the domestic and international
concept of the rate of empty, in the same time , the part gives some suggestions how to modify the formula of the rate of empty to be suitable our conditions. The third part discusses the reasons of the excessive investment in real estate industry. In the end, the article gives some suggestions to above three parts. These suggestions include how to lower the price of real estate and how to adjust the structure of real estate open and decrease the rate of empty and how to guide the reasonable investment and guide against risk of financial.
引文
[1] 谢经荣，吕萍，乔志敏《房地产经济学》中国人民大学出版社 2003年版
[2] 谢伏瞻，李培育，刘士余《住宅产业：发展战略与对策》中国发展出版社 2001年版
[3] 孙宁《房地产证券化—我国未来房地产业发展方向》河南社会科学 2000．5
[4] 万东华《我国房地产价格的现状及走势》《中国投资》2001．7
[5] 彭锦穷《中国房地产十年发展实录》中国企业报 2002．11
[6] 陈秀良《加强房地产金融风险防范》经济日报 2003．1
[7] 高波《全球化背景下的中国房地产业：发展前景与本土对策》江海学刊 2002．5
[8] 常永胜，赵红凌《中国房地产证券化发展模式》经济科学 2003．7
[9] 谢经荣，殷红，王玉玫《房地产金融》中国人民大学出版社 2002年版
[10] 俞明轩，丰雷《房地产投资分析》中国人民大学出版社 2002年版
[11] 丰雷《漫谈当前中国房地产市场的问题、改革及政策取向》国房景气 2002．10
[12] 简德三，王洪卫《房地产经济学》上海财经大学出版社 2003年版
[13] 董寿昆《住宅商品化与金融》中国金融出版社 1992年版
[14] 周永《启动我国房地产市场的对策思考》新东方 2000．5
[15] 张泓铭《住宅经济学》上海财经大学出版社 1998年版
[16] 王伟，张锦波《房地产投资》西南财经大学出版社 2003年版
[17] 陈伯庚《房地产业与泡沫经济——兼评当前房地产市场形势》
中国房地产报 2002．10
[18] 孙斌艺《现代房地产市场研究理沦和方法》上海人民出版社 2003年版
[19] 李清立《房地产开发与经营》清华大学出版社，北方交大出版社 2004年版
[20] 殷红《我国房地产金融的过去、现在和将来》人大期刊 1998．7
[21] 徐立中《我国房地产市场的发展趋势和经营取向》金融论坛 2002．9
[21] 高炽海《信息与房地产经济》经济学动态 2001．8
[22] 万东华《我国房地产价格的现状及走势》中国投资 2001．7
[23] 马嵘，陈兆南《关于房地产经营的几点思考》《嘉兴学院学报》2001．5
[2] 谢伏瞻，李培育，刘士余《住宅产业：发展战略与对策》中国发展出版社 2001年版
[3] 孙宁《房地产证券化—我国未来房地产业发展方向》河南社会科学 2000．5
[4] 万东华《我国房地产价格的现状及走势》《中国投资》2001．7
[5] 彭锦穷《中国房地产十年发展实录》中国企业报 2002．11
[6] 陈秀良《加强房地产金融风险防范》经济日报 2003．1
[7] 高波《全球化背景下的中国房地产业：发展前景与本土对策》江海学刊 2002．5
[8] 常永胜，赵红凌《中国房地产证券化发展模式》经济科学 2003．7
[9] 谢经荣，殷红，王玉玫《房地产金融》中国人民大学出版社 2002年版
[10] 俞明轩，丰雷《房地产投资分析》中国人民大学出版社 2002年版
[11] 丰雷《漫谈当前中国房地产市场的问题、改革及政策取向》国房景气 2002．10
[12] 简德三，王洪卫《房地产经济学》上海财经大学出版社 2003年版
[13] 董寿昆《住宅商品化与金融》中国金融出版社 1992年版
[14] 周永《启动我国房地产市场的对策思考》新东方 2000．5
[15] 张泓铭《住宅经济学》上海财经大学出版社 1998年版
[16] 王伟，张锦波《房地产投资》西南财经大学出版社 2003年版
[17] 陈伯庚《房地产业与泡沫经济——兼评当前房地产市场形势》
中国房地产报 2002．10
[18] 孙斌艺《现代房地产市场研究理沦和方法》上海人民出版社 2003年版
[19] 李清立《房地产开发与经营》清华大学出版社，北方交大出版社 2004年版
[20] 殷红《我国房地产金融的过去、现在和将来》人大期刊 1998．7
[21] 徐立中《我国房地产市场的发展趋势和经营取向》金融论坛 2002．9
[21] 高炽海《信息与房地产经济》经济学动态 2001．8
[22] 万东华《我国房地产价格的现状及走势》中国投资 2001．7
[23] 马嵘，陈兆南《关于房地产经营的几点思考》《嘉兴学院学报》2001．5