软件产品创新中的领先用户识别研究
摘要
软件产业是国民经济和社会信息化的重要基础,近年来对大众生活和社会生产各个领域的渗透不断深入,已经成为我国战略性新兴产业,就目前而言,创新能力不足乃是其进一步发展的瓶颈。传统的创新模式通常需要企业追随市场变化来调整资源配置,但是随着技术经济的飞速发展,主流市场需求变幻莫测,越来越难以把握,对于像软件业这样的高新技术产业,费时费力研制出的某些新产品在实现其商业化的时候往往已经不能满足市场需要了。为应对这一困境,20世纪80年代,麻省理工斯隆学院的希普尔教授基于大量的理论和实证分析,发现在市场中存在一种特殊群体,他们对某种产品或服务具有强烈需求,而且这种需求在未来市场中将会得到普遍认同,这种人就被希普尔称为“领先用户”。基于这一概念,希普尔教授提出了一种新的新产品开发方法,并称之为“领先用户法”,该方法不再要求企业追随主流市场的需求,而是认为企业应去调查领先用户的需求数据并据此进行新产品研发。依据“领先用户法”进行产品研发,首当其冲又至关重要的一环就是要准确地识别出那些领先用户。
综合上述分析可知,进行软件产品创新中的领先用户识别研究对于提升软件企业创新能力具有重要意义。本文的主旨正是为软件企业寻找那些可以帮助他们获得未来市场的领先用户,力图为正处于技术追赶地位的软件企业探求一条值得信赖的领先用户创新之路。
本文通过理论研究、调查问卷以及多属性决策相结合的研究方法,在详细介绍了我国软件产业发展情况的基础上,从创新相关理论入手,提出领先用户是我国软件产业创新的重要源泉,并构建了消费品与工业品领域软件企业实施领先用户法的整体框架,进而提出识别软件领域领先用户的具体方法,并建立了切实可行的识别模型。本文进行的具体工作包括以下几方面：
首先,分析与综述了与本文主旨密切相关的重要理论和方法。对技术创新和用户创新相关的理论进行了较为深入的分析,引出领先用户的重要性；围绕研究问题对软件创新和领先用户识别领域的研究现状进行了综述,进而指出现有领先用户识别方法的不足,并明确了利用多属性决策方法识别领先用户的必要性；经过各种多属性决策方法的优劣比较,选择了PROMETHEE作为本文进行领先用户识别的核心方法,并对PROMETHEE方法的研究现状进行了阐述与分析。
其次,对具体的领先用户识别研究进行了整体的研究设计。在给定研究假设的基础上,明确从两个领域分别识别领先用户,并进一步给出了识别工作的基本思路；将领先用户的识别过程分成两步,包括指标构建和具体的识别方法：在指标构建中,采用浙江大学范柏乃教授提出的指标体系构建方法,通过文献分析、指标初建、专家筛选、相关分析以及鉴别力分析等环节,最终确定领先用户的识别指标体系；在识别方法中,明确提出两个领域中分别采用以PROMETHEE为核心的不同方法求得净流量,评价用户的领先水平,并据此识别领先用户。
第三,给出了消费品软件领域领先用户识别的具体模型和步骤。基于对该领域用户特点的分析,提出虚拟社区是消费品软件领域识别领先用户的有效数据获取途径；利用在整体设计中给出的指标构建方法,进行了该领域领先用户识别指标体系的构建；利用模糊聚类／最小平方和赋权/PROMETHEE这一综合方法进行领先用户的识别,在论证该方法的有效性和可行性时,本文运用了算例演示和数据分析。
第四,给出了工业品软件领域领先用户识别的具体模型和步骤。通过对该领域用户特点的分析,指出应基于软件企业评判且在不确定环境下进行决策的领先用户识别思路；构建了工业品软件领域领先用户识别的指标体系,并进行了筛选和验证；基于PROMETHEE现有改进方法的不足,提出了一套基于属性值为不确定语言、综合赋权以及群决策的PROMETHEE改进方案,使之能够更好地解决不确定环境下的决策问题；通过对CHS软件公司的实地调研,获取了领先用户识别相关的评判数据,实现了完整的领先用户识别过程,最终验证了PROMETHEE改进方案的可行性与合理性,并通过进一步的数据分析使该方法的优越性得到了印证。
本文的创新点主要体现在以下几方面：
(1)完善了消费品软件领域的领先用户识别方法。
在消费品领域,现有的领先用户识别方法通常都集中于创新后判别,忽略了该领域用户较为分散且个体创新力不强的特点。针对这一情况,本文提出在消费品软件领域识别领先用户应强调事先识别和群体识别的基本思路,指出虚拟社区是获取用户领先水平相关数据的有效途径,也是识别和培养领先用户的重要平台,从而规避了现有识别方法的不足,拓宽了该领域领先用户的识别思路。在此基础上构建了相应的识别指标体系,采用模糊聚类／最小平方和赋权/PROMETHEE方法实现了该领域识别领先用户的全过程,并通过算例与数据分析印证了该方法的可行性与科学性。
(2)完善了工业品软件领域的领先用户识别方法。
在工业品领域,现有的领先用户识别方法通常都依赖于企业用户的自我评价,考虑到该领域的领先用户数目集中且对产品创新意义重大,为避免出现评判标准不统一、决策结果缺乏科学性等问题,本文提出在工业品软件领域应由软件企业对用户领先水平进行统一判定,并指出需要在不确定环境下进行决策,从而扩展了该领域识别领先用户的思路。在此基础上,本文构建了相应的识别指标体系,并利用实地调研数据,采用改进后的PROMETHEE方法实现了该领域领先用户识别的全过程。实例分析表明该方法具有较好的可操作性和实用性,能够有效地辅助企业识别领先用户。
(3)对PROMETHEE方法进行改进,使之更好地解决不确定环境下的决策问题。
在现有的PROMETHEE方法改进研究中,如何使之解决不确定环境下的决策问题是研究热点之一,但从本文所掌握的文献来看,尚缺少属性值为语言值的改进,同时在赋权和群决策集结方法等方面也还存在不足之处,因此本文提出了一套基于不确定语言值、综合赋权和ULHA算子群决策的综合改进方案,并通过调研数据以及相应的数据分析,证实了该方法能够充分考虑客观数据与主观偏好,更便于决策者理解与执行,其决策结果也更加合理有效。
The software industry has become China's strategic emerging industry, which is an important foundation of national economic and social information, and in recent years has continued to permeate the various fields of public life and social production. But lack of innovative capacity remains a bottleneck for its development. In the traditional model of innovation, enterprises are usually required to adapt the allocation of resources to market changes, however, with the rapid development of technical economy, the vagaries of market demand become more and more difficult to grasp, so that a newly developed product which was time-consuming often cannot meet market needs in high-tech industries such as in the software industry. Thanks for Prof.Hippel in MIT Sloan School, who has found the solution to the dilemma. In1980s, based on theoretical and empirical analysis, he found a kind of user group known as lead users, who have a strong demand on particular product or service and whose demand in the future market will be generally recognized. Then Hippel proposed a lead user methodology helping enterprises to get out of the dilemma mentioned above and to develop new products by investigating the demands of lead users. In the process of the lead user methodology, a crucial step is to find lead users. It's just the main work of this paper, which is to help software companies to find lead users who can help to occupy the future market. The paper tries exploring a trusted way to innovate by lead users for the software companies in technological catch-up mode.
This paper argues that lead user is an important innovation source of China's software industry by introducing the theory of source of innovation and open innovation. And then the paper illustrates China's software industry in details, and establishes the framework of lead user methodology for consumer goods and industrial goods, and proposes a method to identify lead users using practical models by MADM in software industry, by theoretical research with a combination of questionnaires and decision-making model methodology. The findings we report have practical as well as theoretical import. The major procedures of this paper are as follows:
First, the important theories and methods close to the pupose of this paper are reviewed. Based on the literature of source of innovation, open innovation and radical innovation, this paper reviews the research status on user innovation, software innovation, lead user identification and MADM.etc. Then the necessity of using MADM in identifying lead users is pointed out, and PROMETHEE method is picked out as the core of the identification method after being campared with some different popular MADM methods.
Second, the overall research design of identifying lead users is proposed. On the basis of the given hypothesis, this paper points out that two diferent methods are needed for identifying lead users. Also the basic train of thought is given and two steps are involved in identifying. In building indicators, a method porposed by Prof.Fan in Zhejiang University is used, which includes literature analysis, first version of indicators construction, expert screening, correlation analysis and discrimination analysis etc; in identifying method, PROMETHEE is used to estimate the leading level of users to identify lead users based on the net flow.
Third, a specific method and model is proposed to identify lead users in consumer software field. Based on the feautures of ursers, this paper holds that the virtual community is an important way and platform to identify lead users in this field. Then an indicator system is established and an identifying method is given using the Fuzzy Clustering/Minimum Sum of Square/PROMEHTEE to identify lead users. An example is used to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness.
Fourth, a specific method and model is proposed to identify lead users in industrial software field. Based on the feautures of ursers, this paper holds that companies in this field should estimate the leading level of users themselves in an uncertain environment. Then an indicator system is established and an identifying method is given using an improved PROMETHEE to identify lead users. An example is used to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness. The reasonable properties and rationality of this method is tested by date from software companies and confirmed the superiority by data analysis.
There are three innovations in this thesis.
(1) To propose a lead user identification method for consumer goods in software industry.
In the consumer goods sector, the existing identification methods of lead users usually focus on ex-post identifying, and ignore the features of lead users who are more scattered and not strong in creativity individually. Therefore, an identification method of lead users in consumer software sector was proposed, which underlined the basic idea of ex-ante identification and group identification. This paper points out that the virtual community is an effective way to obtain data about the leading level from a critical mass of users, which is also an important platform for identifying and cultivating lead users. On this basis, a corresponding identification indicator system is constructed and a composite method with Fuzzy Clustering/Least Sum of Square/PROMETHEE was used to implement the whole identification process.
(2) To propose a lead user identification method for industrial goods in software industry.
In the industrial goods sector, the existing identification methods of lead users often rely heavily on self-evaluation of user firms, which leads to a lack of uniform measure and scientific results. So this paper proposes that software firms should make decisions themselves in uncertain conditions. On this basis, a corresponding identification indicator system is constructed and the whole process of identification in this sector is implemented with improved PROMETHEE method based on empirical data.
(3) To improve PROMETHEE method to solve uncertain MADM problems.
In the existing improvements on the PROMETHEE method, adjusting the method to solve decision-making problem in uncertain conditions is one of the focus. However, the attribute values hasn't fixed to linguistic values so far, and determining weights methods and group decision-makings method are still to be improved. On this basis, this paper proposes an improved PROMETHEE with uncertain linguistic value and comprehensive determining weights and group decision-making on ULHA operator. And then empirical data is used to test the feasibility and rationality of the improved method.
综合上述分析可知,进行软件产品创新中的领先用户识别研究对于提升软件企业创新能力具有重要意义。本文的主旨正是为软件企业寻找那些可以帮助他们获得未来市场的领先用户,力图为正处于技术追赶地位的软件企业探求一条值得信赖的领先用户创新之路。
本文通过理论研究、调查问卷以及多属性决策相结合的研究方法,在详细介绍了我国软件产业发展情况的基础上,从创新相关理论入手,提出领先用户是我国软件产业创新的重要源泉,并构建了消费品与工业品领域软件企业实施领先用户法的整体框架,进而提出识别软件领域领先用户的具体方法,并建立了切实可行的识别模型。本文进行的具体工作包括以下几方面：
首先,分析与综述了与本文主旨密切相关的重要理论和方法。对技术创新和用户创新相关的理论进行了较为深入的分析,引出领先用户的重要性；围绕研究问题对软件创新和领先用户识别领域的研究现状进行了综述,进而指出现有领先用户识别方法的不足,并明确了利用多属性决策方法识别领先用户的必要性；经过各种多属性决策方法的优劣比较,选择了PROMETHEE作为本文进行领先用户识别的核心方法,并对PROMETHEE方法的研究现状进行了阐述与分析。
其次,对具体的领先用户识别研究进行了整体的研究设计。在给定研究假设的基础上,明确从两个领域分别识别领先用户,并进一步给出了识别工作的基本思路；将领先用户的识别过程分成两步,包括指标构建和具体的识别方法：在指标构建中,采用浙江大学范柏乃教授提出的指标体系构建方法,通过文献分析、指标初建、专家筛选、相关分析以及鉴别力分析等环节,最终确定领先用户的识别指标体系；在识别方法中,明确提出两个领域中分别采用以PROMETHEE为核心的不同方法求得净流量,评价用户的领先水平,并据此识别领先用户。
第三,给出了消费品软件领域领先用户识别的具体模型和步骤。基于对该领域用户特点的分析,提出虚拟社区是消费品软件领域识别领先用户的有效数据获取途径；利用在整体设计中给出的指标构建方法,进行了该领域领先用户识别指标体系的构建；利用模糊聚类／最小平方和赋权/PROMETHEE这一综合方法进行领先用户的识别,在论证该方法的有效性和可行性时,本文运用了算例演示和数据分析。
第四,给出了工业品软件领域领先用户识别的具体模型和步骤。通过对该领域用户特点的分析,指出应基于软件企业评判且在不确定环境下进行决策的领先用户识别思路；构建了工业品软件领域领先用户识别的指标体系,并进行了筛选和验证；基于PROMETHEE现有改进方法的不足,提出了一套基于属性值为不确定语言、综合赋权以及群决策的PROMETHEE改进方案,使之能够更好地解决不确定环境下的决策问题；通过对CHS软件公司的实地调研,获取了领先用户识别相关的评判数据,实现了完整的领先用户识别过程,最终验证了PROMETHEE改进方案的可行性与合理性,并通过进一步的数据分析使该方法的优越性得到了印证。
本文的创新点主要体现在以下几方面：
(1)完善了消费品软件领域的领先用户识别方法。
在消费品领域,现有的领先用户识别方法通常都集中于创新后判别,忽略了该领域用户较为分散且个体创新力不强的特点。针对这一情况,本文提出在消费品软件领域识别领先用户应强调事先识别和群体识别的基本思路,指出虚拟社区是获取用户领先水平相关数据的有效途径,也是识别和培养领先用户的重要平台,从而规避了现有识别方法的不足,拓宽了该领域领先用户的识别思路。在此基础上构建了相应的识别指标体系,采用模糊聚类／最小平方和赋权/PROMETHEE方法实现了该领域识别领先用户的全过程,并通过算例与数据分析印证了该方法的可行性与科学性。
(2)完善了工业品软件领域的领先用户识别方法。
在工业品领域,现有的领先用户识别方法通常都依赖于企业用户的自我评价,考虑到该领域的领先用户数目集中且对产品创新意义重大,为避免出现评判标准不统一、决策结果缺乏科学性等问题,本文提出在工业品软件领域应由软件企业对用户领先水平进行统一判定,并指出需要在不确定环境下进行决策,从而扩展了该领域识别领先用户的思路。在此基础上,本文构建了相应的识别指标体系,并利用实地调研数据,采用改进后的PROMETHEE方法实现了该领域领先用户识别的全过程。实例分析表明该方法具有较好的可操作性和实用性,能够有效地辅助企业识别领先用户。
(3)对PROMETHEE方法进行改进,使之更好地解决不确定环境下的决策问题。
在现有的PROMETHEE方法改进研究中,如何使之解决不确定环境下的决策问题是研究热点之一,但从本文所掌握的文献来看,尚缺少属性值为语言值的改进,同时在赋权和群决策集结方法等方面也还存在不足之处,因此本文提出了一套基于不确定语言值、综合赋权和ULHA算子群决策的综合改进方案,并通过调研数据以及相应的数据分析,证实了该方法能够充分考虑客观数据与主观偏好,更便于决策者理解与执行,其决策结果也更加合理有效。
The software industry has become China's strategic emerging industry, which is an important foundation of national economic and social information, and in recent years has continued to permeate the various fields of public life and social production. But lack of innovative capacity remains a bottleneck for its development. In the traditional model of innovation, enterprises are usually required to adapt the allocation of resources to market changes, however, with the rapid development of technical economy, the vagaries of market demand become more and more difficult to grasp, so that a newly developed product which was time-consuming often cannot meet market needs in high-tech industries such as in the software industry. Thanks for Prof.Hippel in MIT Sloan School, who has found the solution to the dilemma. In1980s, based on theoretical and empirical analysis, he found a kind of user group known as lead users, who have a strong demand on particular product or service and whose demand in the future market will be generally recognized. Then Hippel proposed a lead user methodology helping enterprises to get out of the dilemma mentioned above and to develop new products by investigating the demands of lead users. In the process of the lead user methodology, a crucial step is to find lead users. It's just the main work of this paper, which is to help software companies to find lead users who can help to occupy the future market. The paper tries exploring a trusted way to innovate by lead users for the software companies in technological catch-up mode.
This paper argues that lead user is an important innovation source of China's software industry by introducing the theory of source of innovation and open innovation. And then the paper illustrates China's software industry in details, and establishes the framework of lead user methodology for consumer goods and industrial goods, and proposes a method to identify lead users using practical models by MADM in software industry, by theoretical research with a combination of questionnaires and decision-making model methodology. The findings we report have practical as well as theoretical import. The major procedures of this paper are as follows:
First, the important theories and methods close to the pupose of this paper are reviewed. Based on the literature of source of innovation, open innovation and radical innovation, this paper reviews the research status on user innovation, software innovation, lead user identification and MADM.etc. Then the necessity of using MADM in identifying lead users is pointed out, and PROMETHEE method is picked out as the core of the identification method after being campared with some different popular MADM methods.
Second, the overall research design of identifying lead users is proposed. On the basis of the given hypothesis, this paper points out that two diferent methods are needed for identifying lead users. Also the basic train of thought is given and two steps are involved in identifying. In building indicators, a method porposed by Prof.Fan in Zhejiang University is used, which includes literature analysis, first version of indicators construction, expert screening, correlation analysis and discrimination analysis etc; in identifying method, PROMETHEE is used to estimate the leading level of users to identify lead users based on the net flow.
Third, a specific method and model is proposed to identify lead users in consumer software field. Based on the feautures of ursers, this paper holds that the virtual community is an important way and platform to identify lead users in this field. Then an indicator system is established and an identifying method is given using the Fuzzy Clustering/Minimum Sum of Square/PROMEHTEE to identify lead users. An example is used to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness.
Fourth, a specific method and model is proposed to identify lead users in industrial software field. Based on the feautures of ursers, this paper holds that companies in this field should estimate the leading level of users themselves in an uncertain environment. Then an indicator system is established and an identifying method is given using an improved PROMETHEE to identify lead users. An example is used to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness. The reasonable properties and rationality of this method is tested by date from software companies and confirmed the superiority by data analysis.
There are three innovations in this thesis.
(1) To propose a lead user identification method for consumer goods in software industry.
In the consumer goods sector, the existing identification methods of lead users usually focus on ex-post identifying, and ignore the features of lead users who are more scattered and not strong in creativity individually. Therefore, an identification method of lead users in consumer software sector was proposed, which underlined the basic idea of ex-ante identification and group identification. This paper points out that the virtual community is an effective way to obtain data about the leading level from a critical mass of users, which is also an important platform for identifying and cultivating lead users. On this basis, a corresponding identification indicator system is constructed and a composite method with Fuzzy Clustering/Least Sum of Square/PROMETHEE was used to implement the whole identification process.
(2) To propose a lead user identification method for industrial goods in software industry.
In the industrial goods sector, the existing identification methods of lead users often rely heavily on self-evaluation of user firms, which leads to a lack of uniform measure and scientific results. So this paper proposes that software firms should make decisions themselves in uncertain conditions. On this basis, a corresponding identification indicator system is constructed and the whole process of identification in this sector is implemented with improved PROMETHEE method based on empirical data.
(3) To improve PROMETHEE method to solve uncertain MADM problems.
In the existing improvements on the PROMETHEE method, adjusting the method to solve decision-making problem in uncertain conditions is one of the focus. However, the attribute values hasn't fixed to linguistic values so far, and determining weights methods and group decision-makings method are still to be improved. On this basis, this paper proposes an improved PROMETHEE with uncertain linguistic value and comprehensive determining weights and group decision-making on ULHA operator. And then empirical data is used to test the feasibility and rationality of the improved method.
引文
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