中国城市土地市场和住房市场互动机制的微观研究
|
摘要
土地市场和住房市场的互动关系一直是国内外理论和实践中关注的热点问题。近十年来，随着我国城市土地价格和住房价格持续快速上涨，相关争论愈发凸显。此外，在我国制度特点下，地方政府垄断土地供给并逐渐形成“土地财政”，对上述市场互动机制存在不可忽视的影响，从而使得关于我国城市土地市场和住房市场互动关系的讨论更加复杂也更加必要。
论文首先基于土地市场引致需求理论和住房市场价格发现理论，以价格为市场间信号，提出了微观层面理想条件下土地市场和住房市场互动机制的理论分析框架——“信号—预期”理论模型。在该理论模型框架下，论文重点分析了作为市场互动机制核心问题的土地价格和住房价格内生关系的成立条件和变化规律，同时分析了我国制度特点下政府行为对市场互动机制的影响途径和影响效果。基于“信号—预期”理论模型，论文对北京市土地市场和住房市场互动机制进行了系统的实证研究。实证研究结果验证了理论模型的正确性，分析了土地市场和住房市场相互影响的效果和变化规律，证明了政府行为对于市场运行存在的影响。
论文研究的主要结论有：（1）微观层面上，住房价格通过引致需求渠道影响土地市场价格和开发时机，土地价格通过价格发现过程影响住房价格和交易概率，价格是两个市场互动机制的重要纽带；（2）土地价格和住房价格的内生关系及其均衡水平依条件成立和变化；（3）“土地财政”对住房市场价格发现过程存在强化影响；（4）北京市土地市场存在显著的垄断结构，住房市场存在显著的垄断竞争结构和非有效性；（5）北京市土地价格和住房价格存在显著的内生关系，“土地财政”进一步推高了住房价格；（6）北京市住房交易概率与周边土地价格正相关，但相关性受空间距离和市场趋势等因素影响；（7）周边住房价格上涨会提高政府的土地出让概率，但政府对土地市场的垄断将延缓土地出让时间。
论文建议逐步推进房产税制度改革、地方政府债券制度建设和土地出让收入用途调整，并在条件适宜时推动城市土地管理职能的分散和下移。通过以上措施，优化地方政府收入结构、提高土地市场竞争程度、降低政府行为对城市土地市场和住房市场运行的干扰，进而促进城市土地市场和住房市场的良性互动，促进住房市场的平稳健康发展和城市化进程的顺利推进。
The interaction between land market and housing market has always been atheoretical and practical hotspot being focused on and argued with at home and abroad.Over the past decade, the debate was sharpened in China due to its rapidly ongoinggrowth of urban land price and housing price. Furthermore, the impact of the localgovernment's monopoly position in the urban land market and the resulting so-calledland-finance behavior under China's specific institution on such interaction cannot beignored easily, which makes the special research on the interaction relationship betweenurban land and housing markets much more complex and necessary.
Based on the theory of derived demand of land market and the theory of pricediscovery of housing market, the Signal-Expectation Model (SEM), describing thetheoretical frame of the interaction between land market and housing market under themicroscopic perspective and ideal condition, is raised with the prices being used as theinter-market signals. According to SEM, the dissertation essentially analysis theprerequisites and the variation pattern of the endogenous relationship between landprice and housing price, which is the key issue of the interaction between the twomarkets, and the impact of local government's behavior under China's specificinstitution on such interaction. Additionally, the systematical empirical research isconducted for the SEM with the data from Beijing's land market and housing market.The empirical results excellently support the theoretical model, demonstrate the leveland the variation pattern of the interaction between markets and illustrate the impact oflocal government's behavior on the market.
The main theoretical findings and empirical conclusions are:(1) in microscopicperspective, the housing price influences the land price and the land's time todevelopment through the mechanism of derived demand, while the land price influencesthe housing price and the its sale probability through the process of price discovery,where the prices here are essential to connect one market to each other;(2) theendogenous relationship and the equilibrium result between land and housing prices arecontingent to exist and vary;(3) the land-finance behavior intensify the process of pricediscovery in housing market;(4) the monopoly competition structure and the inefficiency are significant in Beijing' housing market, while the complete monopolystructure exists in Beijing's land market;(5) the endogenous relationship between landand housing prices is significant in Beijing, where the government pushes up thehousing price through the land-finance behavior;(6) the sale probability of housingmarket is positively related to the surrounding land price, but the degree of suchcorrelation changes according to the spatial distance and the market trend;(7) theincreasing of housing price is to raise the probability of land-transfer by the localgovernment, the monopoly power of the local government, however, will prolong thetime on the market.
The findings and conclusions imply the political suggestions that the property taxreform covering personal residential, the system of local government bond and theusage adjustment of land transfer income should be promoted step by step. Contingentlyon such promoting, furthermore, the autrority of urban land management should bediscentralized and moved down. The sugeestions is helpful to optimize the incomestructure of the local government, to enhance the contestability of urban land marketand to impair the impact of local government on the operation of urban land andhousing markets, which is, finanally, benefit to the virtuous interaction between landmarket and housing market, the stable and healthy development of housing market andthe progress of the urbanization.
论文首先基于土地市场引致需求理论和住房市场价格发现理论，以价格为市场间信号，提出了微观层面理想条件下土地市场和住房市场互动机制的理论分析框架——“信号—预期”理论模型。在该理论模型框架下，论文重点分析了作为市场互动机制核心问题的土地价格和住房价格内生关系的成立条件和变化规律，同时分析了我国制度特点下政府行为对市场互动机制的影响途径和影响效果。基于“信号—预期”理论模型，论文对北京市土地市场和住房市场互动机制进行了系统的实证研究。实证研究结果验证了理论模型的正确性，分析了土地市场和住房市场相互影响的效果和变化规律，证明了政府行为对于市场运行存在的影响。
论文研究的主要结论有：（1）微观层面上，住房价格通过引致需求渠道影响土地市场价格和开发时机，土地价格通过价格发现过程影响住房价格和交易概率，价格是两个市场互动机制的重要纽带；（2）土地价格和住房价格的内生关系及其均衡水平依条件成立和变化；（3）“土地财政”对住房市场价格发现过程存在强化影响；（4）北京市土地市场存在显著的垄断结构，住房市场存在显著的垄断竞争结构和非有效性；（5）北京市土地价格和住房价格存在显著的内生关系，“土地财政”进一步推高了住房价格；（6）北京市住房交易概率与周边土地价格正相关，但相关性受空间距离和市场趋势等因素影响；（7）周边住房价格上涨会提高政府的土地出让概率，但政府对土地市场的垄断将延缓土地出让时间。
论文建议逐步推进房产税制度改革、地方政府债券制度建设和土地出让收入用途调整，并在条件适宜时推动城市土地管理职能的分散和下移。通过以上措施，优化地方政府收入结构、提高土地市场竞争程度、降低政府行为对城市土地市场和住房市场运行的干扰，进而促进城市土地市场和住房市场的良性互动，促进住房市场的平稳健康发展和城市化进程的顺利推进。
The interaction between land market and housing market has always been atheoretical and practical hotspot being focused on and argued with at home and abroad.Over the past decade, the debate was sharpened in China due to its rapidly ongoinggrowth of urban land price and housing price. Furthermore, the impact of the localgovernment's monopoly position in the urban land market and the resulting so-calledland-finance behavior under China's specific institution on such interaction cannot beignored easily, which makes the special research on the interaction relationship betweenurban land and housing markets much more complex and necessary.
Based on the theory of derived demand of land market and the theory of pricediscovery of housing market, the Signal-Expectation Model (SEM), describing thetheoretical frame of the interaction between land market and housing market under themicroscopic perspective and ideal condition, is raised with the prices being used as theinter-market signals. According to SEM, the dissertation essentially analysis theprerequisites and the variation pattern of the endogenous relationship between landprice and housing price, which is the key issue of the interaction between the twomarkets, and the impact of local government's behavior under China's specificinstitution on such interaction. Additionally, the systematical empirical research isconducted for the SEM with the data from Beijing's land market and housing market.The empirical results excellently support the theoretical model, demonstrate the leveland the variation pattern of the interaction between markets and illustrate the impact oflocal government's behavior on the market.
The main theoretical findings and empirical conclusions are:(1) in microscopicperspective, the housing price influences the land price and the land's time todevelopment through the mechanism of derived demand, while the land price influencesthe housing price and the its sale probability through the process of price discovery,where the prices here are essential to connect one market to each other;(2) theendogenous relationship and the equilibrium result between land and housing prices arecontingent to exist and vary;(3) the land-finance behavior intensify the process of pricediscovery in housing market;(4) the monopoly competition structure and the inefficiency are significant in Beijing' housing market, while the complete monopolystructure exists in Beijing's land market;(5) the endogenous relationship between landand housing prices is significant in Beijing, where the government pushes up thehousing price through the land-finance behavior;(6) the sale probability of housingmarket is positively related to the surrounding land price, but the degree of suchcorrelation changes according to the spatial distance and the market trend;(7) theincreasing of housing price is to raise the probability of land-transfer by the localgovernment, the monopoly power of the local government, however, will prolong thetime on the market.
The findings and conclusions imply the political suggestions that the property taxreform covering personal residential, the system of local government bond and theusage adjustment of land transfer income should be promoted step by step. Contingentlyon such promoting, furthermore, the autrority of urban land management should bediscentralized and moved down. The sugeestions is helpful to optimize the incomestructure of the local government, to enhance the contestability of urban land marketand to impair the impact of local government on the operation of urban land andhousing markets, which is, finanally, benefit to the virtuous interaction between landmarket and housing market, the stable and healthy development of housing market andthe progress of the urbanization.
引文
①数据来源：《中国统计年鉴》和国家统计局年度统计公报，2005年-2013年。
②资料来源：北京晚报，2009年7月1日第7版。
③资料来源：钱江晚报，2012年2月23日第B4版。
②见《国务院关于加强国有土地使用权有偿出让收入管理的通知》（[1989]国发38号）
③摘自2011年5月前国务院总理朱镕基在清华大学经济与管理学院多功能报告厅的讲话。
①见《闲置土地处置办法》(中华人民共和国国土资源部部令[2002第53号])
①本章部分内容形成的学术论文《开发商市场势力对交易溢价的影响:来自北京的证据》，发表于《系统工程理论与实践》2013年第4期；部分内容形成的学术论文《ANewApproach for Constructing Home PriceIndices in China: The Pseudo Repeat Sales Model》正在《Journal of Housing Economics》进行同行评审。
①后经整理形成《邓小平关于建筑业的一次重要谈话》。
①见《关于中外合营企业建设用地的暂行规定》（国发[1980]201号）第一条。
①数据来源：北京市统计局网站年度数据资料。
③假设的依据为《关于进一步加强土地出让收支管理的通知》（财综[2009]74号）。假设所有土地出让金在交易后1年内付清，则1月至12月所有合同金额的50%即为当年支付金额的期望。
④数据来源：北京市土地整理储备中心网站。
①数据来源：国家统计局；财政部《关于各年度中央和地方预算执行情况与各年度中央和地方预算草案的报告（2011）》
①本章部分内容形成的学术论文《政府土地供应决策中等待期权的实证检验》，宣讲于世界华人不动产学会2011年年会，录用于《系统工程理论与实践》，将于2013年第10期刊出。
[1] Deng, Yongheng, Joseph Gyourko, Jing Wu. Land and house price measurement in China, inProperty markets and financial stability, Heath A., Packer F. and Windsor C. eds., Bank ofInternational Settlement and Reserve Bank of Australia,2012.
[2]李稻葵.论限购.新财富,2011,(3):30～34
[3]李祎恒.住房分配机制中限购令政策的法经济学解析.法学论坛,2011,26(3):106～111
[4]王思锋,彭兴庭.论中国房地产市场的政府规制——兼评“房屋限购令”的合法性.西北大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2011,5:148～153
[5]张双长,李稻葵.“二次房改”的财政基础分析——基于土地财政与房地产价格关系的视角.财政研究,2010,7:4
[6]左翔,殷醒民.土地一级市场垄断与地方公共品供给.经济学季刊,2013,12(2):693～718
[7]周彬,杜两省.“土地财政”与房地产价格上涨;理论分析和实证研究[J].财贸经济,2010,8:20
[8]贾康,刘微.“土地财政”:分析及出路——在深化财税改革中构建合理,规范,可持续的地方“土地生财”机制.财政研究,2012,(1):2～9
[9]张燕君,侯远志,杜文龙.土地制度与“土地财政”对房价上涨的影响及平抑对策.理论导刊,2012,2:4
[10] Sagalyn L B, Sternlieb G. Zoning and housing costs: the impact of land-use controls onhousing price Center for Urban Policy Research, Rutgers University New Brunswick, NJ,1972
[11] Pollakowski H O, Wachter S M. The effects of land-use constraints on housing prices. LandEconomics,1990,66(3):315～324
[12] Peng R, Wheaton W C. Effects of restrictive land supply on housing in Hong Kong: aneconometric analysis Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University,1993
[13] Chau K W, Wong S K, Yiu C Y, et al. Do unexpected land auction outcomes bring newinformation to the real estate market? The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,2010,40(4):480～496
[14]任超群.土地出让价格信号对房价的影响研究:[杭州:浙江大学,2011
[15]任超群,张娟锋,贾生华.土地出让价格信号对区域新建商品住宅价格的影响. ChinaLand Science,2011,25(7)
[16] Alonso W. Location and land use. Toward a general theory of land rent. Location and land use.Toward a general theory of land rent.,1964
[17] Muth R F. The demand for non-farm housing: The Demand for Durable Goods. Harberger A C.Chicago: University of Chicago Press,1960
[18] Mills E S. An aggregative model of resource allocation in a metropolitan area. The AmericanEconomic Review,1967,57(2):197～210
[19] Titman S. Urban Land Prices Under Uncertainty. The American Economic Review,1985,75(3):505～514
[20] Quigg L. Empirical Testing of Real Option-Pricing Models. The Journal of Finance,1993,48(2):621～640
[21] Williams J T. Equilibrium and options on real assets. Review of Financial Studies,1993,6(4):825～850
[22] Potepan M J. Explaining intermetropolitan variation in housing prices, rents and land prices.Real Estate Economics,1996,24(2):219～245
[23]刘琳,刘洪玉.地价与房价关系的经济学分析.数量经济技术经济研究,2003,(007):27～30
[24] Tsoukis C, Alyousha A. Implications of intertemporal optimization for house and land prices.Applied Economics,1999,31(12):1565～1571
[25] Ooi J T, Lee S. Price Discovery between residential land&housing markets. Journal ofHousing Research,2004,15(2):95～112
[26]宋勃,高波.房价与地价关系的因果检验:1998-2006.当代经济科学,2007,29(001):72～77
[27]黄健柏,江飞涛,陈伟刚.对我国房价与地价相互关系的再检验.预测,2007,26(002):1～7
[28]严金海.中国的房价与地价:理论,实证和政策分析.数量经济技术经济研究,2006,23(001):17～26
[29]况伟大.房价与地价关系研究:模型及中国数据检验.财贸经济,2005,(011):56～63
[30]郭晓旸,刘洪玉,郑思齐.异质性对新建商品住房市场交易速度的影响——来自北京市的微观证据.城市发展研究,2012,6:22
[31] Newell G, Tan Y K. The development and performance of listed property trust futures. PacificRim Property Research Journal,2004,10(2):132～145
[32] Mcgill B J. Real estate derivative securities and method for trading them,2004
[33]赵冈,陈钟毅.中国土地制度史新星出版社,2006.
[34] von Thünen J H, Hall P. Von Thünen's Isolated State: An English Version of Der IsolierteStaat... Pergamon Press,1966
[35] Muth R F. CITIES AND HOUSING; THE SPATIAL PATTERN OF URBANRESIDENTIAL LAND USE.,1969
[36] Mieszkowski P, Mills E S. The causes of metropolitan suburbanization. The Journal ofEconomic Perspectives,1993,7(3):135～147
[37] Mills E S, Lubuele L S. Inner cities. Journal of Economic Literature,1997,35(2):727～756
[38] Anas A, Arnott R, Small K A. Urban spatial structure,1997
[39] Glaeser E L, Kahn M E. Sprawl and urban growth. Handbook of regional and urbaneconomics,2004,4:2481～2527
[40] Zheng S, Fu Y, Liu H. Housing-choice hindrances and urban spatial structure: Evidence frommatched location and location-preference data in Chinese cities. Journal of Urban Economics,2006,60(3):535～557
[41] Zheng S, Fu Y, Liu H. Demand for urban quality of living in China: Evolution incompensating land-rent and wage-rate differentials. The Journal of Real Estate Finance andEconomics,2009,38(3):194～213
[42] Zheng S, Kahn M E. Land and residential property markets in a booming economy: Newevidence from Beijing. Journal of Urban Economics,2008,63(2):743～757
[43] Black F, Scholes M. The pricing of options and corporate liabilities. Journal of PoliticalEconomy,1973,81(3):637～654
[44] Merton R C. Theory of rational option pricing. The Bell Journal of Economics andManagement Science,1973:141～183
[45] Cox J C, Ross S A, Rubinstein M. Option Pricing: A Simplified Approach. Journal ofFinancial Economic,1979,7(3):229～263
[46] Titman S. Urban Land Prices Under Uncertainty. The American Economic Review,1985,75(3):505～514
[47] Cheng Y, Clark S. Real Option Model of Real Estate Development with Entitlement Risk.Available at SSRN2140213,2012
[48] Mcdonald R, Siegel D. The Value of Waiting to Invest. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1986,101(4)
[49] Abel A B, Dixit A K, Eberly J C, et al. Options, the value of capital, and investment. Thequarterly Journal of economics,1996,111(3):753～777
[50] Bernanke B S. Irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment. The Quarterly Journal ofEconomics,1983,98(1):85～106
[51] Williams J T. Real Estate Development as an Option. Journal of Real Estate Finance andEconomics,1991,4(2):191～208
[52] Capozza D R, Helsley R W. The Stochastic City. Journal of Urban Economics,1990,28(2):187～203
[53] Capozza D, Li Y. The Intensity and Timing of Investment: The Case of Land. AmericanEconomic Review,1994,84(4):889～904
[54]赫尔.期权,期货和其他衍生品/Options, Futures, and other derivativesTsinghua UniversityPress,2006.
[55] Jud G D, Seaks T G, Winkler D T. Time on the market: the impact of residential brokerage.Journal of Real Estate Research,1996,12:447～458
[56] Bulan L, Mayer C, Somerville C T. Irreversible investment, real options, and competition:Evidence from real estate development. Journal of Urban Economics,2009,65(3):237～251
[57] Cunningham C R. House price uncertainty, timing of development, and vacant land prices:Evidence for real options in Seattle. Journal of Urban Economics,2006,59(1):1～31
[58] Holland A, Ott S, Riddiough T. The Role of Uncertainty in Investment: An Examination ofCompeting Investment Models Using Commercial Real Estate Data. Real Estate Economics,2000,28(1):33～64
[59] Sing T F, Patel K. Evidence of Irreversibility in the UK Property Market. The QuartelyReview of Economics and Finance,2001,41(3):313～334
[60] Yamazaki R. Empirical Testing of Real Option Pricing Models Using Land Price Index inJapan. Journal of Property Investment&Finance,2001,19(1):53～72
[61]唐建立,陆龙坤.实物期权方法在房地产投资项目评估中的运用.重庆工学院学报,2002,16(6):12～15
[62]李济民,左立.房地产投资决策中的实物期权分析方法.重庆建筑大学学报,2004,26(115-118)
[63]项盛辉,何芳.实物期权方法在房地产开发中的应用.建筑管理现代化,2002,(2):43～46
[64]游达明,徐鸣.基于复合期权的土地储备估值模型研究.价值工程,2008,2008(7):35～37
[65]曾力勇,裘亚峥.房地产开发项目三阶段投资决策的实物期权模型研究.长沙理工大学学报(社会科学版),2005,20(2):56～59
[66]赵永生,张文娟,屠梅曾.基于多资产期权的土地资源组合开发优化研究.中国人口·资源与环境,2006,16(6):108
[67]高平,黄安永.基于实物期权定价模型的房地产投资决策的研究.东南大学学报（哲学社会科学版）,2005,2005(12):117～119
[68]曾力勇,陈收,裘亚峥.商品房价格不确定条件下房地产企业投资决策的期权模型研究.经济管理,2007,29(12):56～61
[69]刘涛,刘丽霞.基于实物期权的土地转化开发决策研究.数学的实践与认识,2009,39(13):56～64
[70]王媛,贾生华.不确定性,实物期权与政府土地供应决策:来自杭州的证据.世界经济,2012,(3):125～145
[71]王媛,贾生华,张凌.土地投资决策的实物期权理论评述.中国土地科学,2010,24(9):76～80
[72]郭晓旸,刘洪玉.政府土地出让中的实物期权特征.(已被系统工程理论与实践录用)
[73] Miron J R. Demographic and economic factors in housing demand. House, Home, andCommunity: Progress in Housing Canadians,1945,1986:22～40
[74] Haar C M. Zoning for Minimum Standards: The Wayne Township Case. Harv. L. Rev.,1952,66:1051
[75] Nolan V, Horack F E. How Small a House?: Zoning for Minimum Space Requirements.Harvard Law Review,1954,67(6):967～986
[76] Mark J H, Goldberg M A. A study of the impacts of zoning on housing values over time.Journal of Urban Economics,1986,20(3):257～273
[77] Dowall D E, Landis J D. Land‐Use Controls and Housing Costs: An Examination of SanFrancisco Bay Area Communities*. Real Estate Economics,1982,10(1):67～93
[78] Katz L, Rosen K T. The interjurisdictional effects of growth controls on housing prices.Journal of Law and Economics,1987,30(1):149～160
[79] Bramley G. Explaining the puzzles in policy change: local finance reform in Britain. Journalof Public Policy,1990,10(1):45～65
[80] Glaeser E L, Gyourko J, Saks R. Why is Manhattan so expensive? Regulation and the rise inhouse prices,2003
[81] Quigley J M, Rosenthal L A. The Effects of Land Use Regulation on the Price of Housing:What do we know? What can we learn? Cityscape,2005:69～137
[82] Ho W K, Ganesan S. On land supply and the price of residential housing. Netherlands Journalof Housing and the Built Environment,1998,13(4):439～452
[83] Raymond Y C. Housing price, land supply and revenue from land sales. Urban Studies,1998,35(8):1377～1392
[84] Hui E C. An empirical study of the effects of land supply and lease conditions on the housingmarket: A case of Hong Kong. Property Management,2004,22(2):127～154
[85] Hannah L, Kim K, Mills E S. Land use controls and housing prices in Korea. Urban Studies,1993,30(1):147～156
[86] Yunnan H Z. Effects of urban land supply policy on real estate in China: An econometricanalysis. Journal of Real Estate Literature,2008,16(1):55～72
[87]任荣荣,刘洪玉.土地供应对住房价格的影响机理——对北京市的实证研究.价格理论与实践,2007,(10):40～41
[88]王松涛,刘洪玉.土地供应政策对住房供给与住房价格的影响研究.土木工程学报,2009,10:116～121
[89]黄静,王洪卫.土地供给方式对房价的影响研究——基于面板误差修正模型的实证分析.上海财经大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2012,14(004):90～97
[90] Clauretie T M, Thistle P D. The Effect of Time-on-Market and Location on Search Costs andAnchoring: The Case of Single-Family Properties. The Journal of Real Estate Finance andEconomics,2007,35(2):181～196
[91] Case K E, Shiller R J. Prices of single family homes since1970: New indexes for four cities,1987
[92] Case K E, Shiller R J. The efficiency of the market for single-family homes,1989
[93] Gatzlaff D H, Tirtiro lu D. Real estate market efficiency: issues and evidence. Journal of RealEstate Literature,1995,3(2):157～189
[94] Clayton J. Further evidence on real estate market efficiency. Journal of Real Estate Research,1998,15(1):41～57
[95]郑思齐,刘洪玉.房地产市场有效性研究——以北京和上海为例.商业研究,2006,(007):191～195
[96]任荣荣,郑思齐,龙奋杰.预期对房价的作用机制:对35个大中城市的实证研究.经济问题探索,2008,1:145～148
[97] Anglin P M. Value and liquidity under changing market conditions. Journal of HousingEconomics,2006,15(4):293～304
[98] Blank D M, Winnick L. The Structure of the Housing Market. The Quarterly Journal ofEconomics,1953,67(2):181～208
[99] Fisher J, Gatzlaff D, Geltner D, et al. Controlling for the impact of variable liquidity incommercial real estate price indices. Real Estate Economics,2003,31(2):269～303
[100] Hartzell D J, Mengden A. Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts–Are They Stocks or RealEstate? New York: Solomon Bros. Inc., August,1987
[101] Myer N F, Webb J R, He L T. Issues in measuring performance of commingled real estatefunds. Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management,1997,3(2):79～85
[102] Barkham R, Geltner D. Price discovery in American and British property markets. Real EstateEconomics,1995,23(1):21～44
[103] Newell G, Chau K W. Linkages between direct and indirect property performance in HongKong. Journal of Property Finance,1996,7(4):9～29
[104] Chau K W, Macgregor B D, Schwann G M. Price discovery in the Hong Kong real estatemarket. Journal of Property Research,2001,18(3):187～216
[105] Ching S, Fu Y. Contestability of the urban land market: an event study of Hong Kong landauctions. Regional Science and Urban Economics,2003,33(6):695～720
[106] Geltner D, Macgregor B D, Schwann G M. Appraisal smoothing and price discovery in realestate markets. Urban Studies,2003,40(5-6):1047～1064
[107] Ooi J T, Sirmans C F. The wealth effects of land acquisition. The Journal of Real EstateFinance and Economics,2004,29(3):277～294
[108] Maurice K S, Pretorius F I, Chau K W. Market sentiments, winner’s curse and biddingoutcome in land auctions. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,2011,42(3):247～274
[109] Fortura P, Kushner J. Canadian Inter‐City House Price Differentials. Real Estate Economics,1986,14(4):525～536
[110] Manning C A. Explaining intercity home price differences. The Journal of Real Estate Financeand Economics,1989,2(2):131～149
[111] Dipasquale D, Wheaton W C. The markets for real estate assets and space: a conceptualframework. Real Estate Economics,1992,20(2):181～198
[112]宋勃,刘建江.房价与地价关系的理论分析与中国经验的实证检验:1998-2007.中央财经大学学报,2009,(9):60～66
[113]王岳龙,张瑜.基于中国省级面板数据的房价与地价关系研究.山西财经大学学报,2010,(001):50～57
[114]高波,毛丰付.房价与地价关系的实证检验:1999-2002.产业经济研究,2003,3(19): l
[115]郑娟尔,吴次芳.地价与房价的因果关系.中国土地科学,2006,20(6)
[116]郝寿义,王旺平.我国房价与地价关系的动态研究.经济问题,2012,(009):52～56
[117] Guerrieri V, Hartley D, Hurst E. Endogenous gentrification and housing price dynamics.Journal of Public Economics,2013,101(4)
[118] Tiebout C M. A pure theory of local expenditures. The journal of political economy,1956,64(5):416～424
[119] Oates W E. The effects of property taxes and local public spending on property values: Anempirical study of tax capitalization and the Tiebout hypothesis. The Journal of PoliticalEconomy,1969,77(6):957～971
[120] Oates W E. The effects of property taxes and local public spending on property values: a replyand yet further results. The Journal of Political Economy,1973,81(4):1004～1008
[121] Oates W E. Local property taxation: An assessment. Land Lines,1999,11(3):1～3
[122]贾生华,温海珍.房地产特征价格模型的理论发展及其应用.外国经济与管理,2004,26(5):42～44
[123] Zheng S, Kahn M E. Does Government Investment in Local Public Goods Spur Gentrification?Evidence from Beijing. Real Estate Economics,2012
[124] Gibbons S, Machin S. Valuing school quality, better transport, and lower crime: evidence fromhouse prices. Oxford Review of Economic Policy,2008,24(1):99～119
[125]郑思齐.城市经济的空间结构:居住,就业及其衍生问题清华大学出版社,2012.
[126]王姗,王琼.北京二手房市场研究报告.中国建设信息,2011,(003):16～19
[127]邓念.政府作用下的中国房地产市场理论与实证研究:[博士学位论文].上海:复旦大学,2010
[128] Blank D M, Winnick L. The Structure of the Housing Market. The Quarterly Journal ofEconomics,1953,67(2):181～208
[129] Olsen E O. A Competitive Theory of the Housing Market. The American Economic Review,1969,59(4):612～622
[130] Gau G W. Weak form tests of the efficiency of real estate investment markets. FinancialReview,1984,19(4):301～320
[131]段芳.房地产市场有效性的理论与实证研究:[上海:华东师范大学,2011
[132]成思危.中国城镇住房制度改革:目标模式与实施难点民主与建设出版社,1999.
[133]陈伯庚,顾志敏,陆开和.城镇住房制度改革的理论与实践上海人民出版社,2003.
[134]陈艳萍,赵民.我国城镇住房制度改革及政策调控回顾与思考——基于经济,社会,空间发展的综合视角.城市规划,2012,(12):19～27
[135]陈杰.制度经济学视角下的中国住房制度变迁分析.社会科学辑刊,2010,(006):104～108
[136]吴次芳,靳相木.中国土地制度改革三十年科学出版社,2009.
[137]柴永强.城市土地管理制度改革:2009
[138] Muth R F. The demand for non-farm housing: The Demand for Durable Goods. Harberger A C.Chicago: University of Chicago Press,1960
[139] Olsen E O. A Competitive Theory of the Housing Market. The American Economic Review,1969,59(4):612～622
[140] Goodman A C, Thibodeau T G. Housing market segmentation and hedonic predictionaccuracy. Journal of Housing Economics,2003,12(3):181～201
[141] Berry B. Ghetto expansion and single-family housing prices: Chicago,1968-1972. Journal ofUrban Economics,1976,3(4):397～423
[142] Kain J F, Quigley J M. Housing markets and racial discrimination: A microeconomic analysisNational Bureau of Economic Research,1975
[143] Demsetz H. Two systems of belief about monopoly': Industrial Concentration: The NewLearning. Goldschmid H J, Mann H M, Weston J F. Boston: Little, Brown,1974,164～184
[144] Straszheim M. Hedonic estimation of housing market prices: A further comment. The Reviewof Economics and Statistics,1974,56(3):404～406
[145] Palm R. Spatial Segmentation of the Urban Housing Market. Economic Geography,1978,54(3):210～221
[146]况伟大.空间竞争,房价收入比与房价.财贸经济,2004,(7):79～86
[147]李宏瑾.我国房地产市场垄断程度研究——勒纳指数的测算.财经问题研究,2005,(3):3～10
[148] Adelman M A. The measurement of industrial concentration. The Review of Economics andStatistics,1951,33(4):269～296
[149] Collins N R, Preston L E. The size structure of the largest industrial firms,1909-1958. TheAmerican Economic Review,1961,51(5):986～1011
[150] Saving T R. Concentration Ratios and the Degree of Monopoly. International EconomicReview,1970,11(1):139～146
[151] Shephard W G. Trends of concentration in American manufacturing industries,1947-1958.The Review of Economics and Statistics,1964,46(2):200～212
[152] Hannan T H. Market share inequality, the number of competitors, and the HHI: anexamination of bank pricing. Review of Industrial Organization,1997,12(1):23～35
[153] Kim W S, Lyn E O. Excess market value, the multinational corporation, and Tobin's q-ratio.Journal of International Business Studies,1986,17(1):119～125
[154] Lerner A P. The Concept of Monopoly and the Measurement of Monopoly Power. TheReview of Economic Studies,1934,1(3):157～175
[155] Rothschild K W. The degree of monopoly. Economica,1942,9(33):24～39
[156] Appelbaum E. The estimation of the degree of oligopoly power. Journal of Econometrics,1982,19(2-3):287～299
[157] Bhuyan S, Lopez R A. Oligopoly power in the food and tobacco industries. American Journalof Agricultural Economics,1997,79(3):1035～1043
[158] Schroeter J R. Estimating the degree of market power in the beef packing industry. TheReview of Economics and Statistics,1988,70(1):158～162
[159]曼昆, Mankiw N. Gregory,梁小民.经济学原理: Principles of economics机械工业出版社,2003.
[160]王利.北京房地产市场供求关系和价格机制作用的实证研究.经济与管理研究,2008,5:37
[161] Yang S X, Yavas A. Bigger is not Better: Brokerage and Time on the Market. Journal of RealEstate Research,1995,10(1):23～33
[162] Fama E F. Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. Journal of finance,1970,25(2):383～417
[163] Jensen M C. Some anomalous evidence regarding market efficiency. Journal of FinancialEconomics,1978,6(2/3):95～101
[164] Grossman S J, Stiglitz J E. On the impossibility of informationally efficient markets. TheAmerican Economic Review,1980,70(3):393～408
[165] Fama E F. The behavior of stock-market prices. Journal of business,1965,38(1):34～105
[166] Roberts H. Statistical versus clinical prediction of the stock market,1967
[167] Fisher J, Geltner D, Pollakowski H. A quarterly transactions-based index of institutional realestate investment performance and movements in supply and demand. The Journal of RealEstate Finance and Economics,2007,34(1):5～33
[168] Guo X, Zheng S, Geltner D, et al. A New Approach for Constructing Home Price Indices inChina: The Pseudo Repeat Sales Model. Available at SSRN2127336,2012
[169] Quigley J M. A simple hybrid model for estimating real estate price indexes. Journal ofHousing Economics,1995,4(1):1～12
[170] Bokhari S, Geltner D. Estimating real estate price movements for high frequency tradableindexes in a scarce data environment. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,2012:1～22
[171] Ching S, Fu Y. Contestability of the urban land market: an event study of Hong Kong landauctions. Regional Science and Urban Economics,2003,33(6):695～720
[172] Chau K W, Wong S K, Yiu C Y, et al. Do unexpected land auction outcomes bring newinformation to the real estate market? The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,2010,40(4):480～496
[173] Haurin D. The duration of marketing time of residential housing. Real Estate Economics,1988,16(4):396～410
[174] Anglin P M, Rutherford R, Springer T M. The trade-off between the selling price of residentialproperties and time-on-the-market: The impact of price setting. The Journal of Real EstateFinance and Economics,2003,26(1):95～111
[175] Case B, Pollakowski H O, Wachter S M. On choosing among house price index methodologies.Real estate economics,1991,19(3):286～307
[176] Zuehlke T W. Duration dependence in the housing market. The Review of Economics andStatistics,1987,69(4):701～709
[177] Grovenstein R A, Kau J B, Munneke H J. Development value: A real options approach usingempirical data. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,2011,43(3):321～335
[178] Trigeorgis L. Real Options. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press,1996
[179] Demyanyk Y, Van Hemert O. Understanding the subprime mortgage crisis. Review ofFinancial Studies,2011,24(6):1848～1880
[180] Ding W, Zheng S, Guo X. Value of Access to Jobs and Amenities: Evidence from NewResidential Properties in Beijing. Tsinghua Science and Technology,2010,5:18
[181] Rosen S. Hedonic prices and implicit markets: product differentiation in pure competition. Thejournal of political economy,1974,82(1):34～55
[182] Smith B A, Tesarek W P. House prices and regional real estate cycles: Market adjustments inHouston. Real Estate Economics,1991,19(3):396～416
[183] Case K E, Shiller R. A Decade of Boom and Bust in the Prices of Single Family Homes:Boston and Los Angeles. New England Economic Review,1994
[184] Monkkonen P, Wong K, Begley J. Economic restructuring, urban growth, and short-termtrading: The spatial dynamics of the Hong Kong housing market,1992–2008. RegionalScience and Urban Economics,2012,42(3):396～406
[185] Case K E, Mayer C J. Housing price dynamics within a metropolitan area. Regional Scienceand Urban Economics,1996,26(3):387～407
[186]刘洪玉,郭晓旸,姜沛言.房产税制度改革中的税负公平性问题.清华大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2012,27(6):18～26
[187] Genesove D, Mayer C. Loss aversion and seller behavior: Evidence from the housing market.The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2001,116(4):1233～1260
[188] Camerer C, Ho T, Chong K. Models of thinking, learning, and teaching in games. AmericanEconomic Review,2003,93(2):192～195
[189] Tversky A, Kahneman D. Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Choice. Science,1974,211:453～458
[190] Tversky A, Kahneman D. The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science,1981,211(4481):453
[191] Kahneman D, Tversky A. Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica:Journal of the Econometric Society,1979:263～291
[192] Camerer C F, Loewenstein G, Rabin M. Advances in behavioral economics PrincetonUniversity Press,2011
[193]关涛.周期性波动的房地产市场：基于行为经济学的分析太原:山西经济出版社,2008.
[194] Rabin M. Risk aversion and expected‐utility theory: A calibration theorem. Econometrica,2000,68(5):1281～1292
[195] Shefrin H. Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology ofInvesting. New York: Oxford University Press,2002
[196] Kahneman D, Knetsch J L, Thaler R H. Experimental tests of the endowment effect and theCoase theorem. Journal of political Economy,1990:1325～1348
[197] Cleves M A, Gould W W, Gutierrez R G. An introduction to survival analysis using StataStata Corp,2008
[198] Rhys H, Song J, Jindrichovska I. The Timing of Real Option Excercise: Some RecentDevelopment. The Engineering Economist,2002,47(4):436～450
[199]杨志勇.地方债启动之配套条件研究.地方财政研究,2009,4:4～8
[200] Ermisch J F, Findlay J, Gibb K. The price elasticity of housing demand in Britain: issues ofsample selection. Journal of Housing Economics,1996,5(1):64～86
[201] Maudos J. Market structure and performance in Spanish banking using a direct measure ofefficiency. Applied Financial Economics,1998,8(2):191～200
[202] Choi B P, Weiss M A. An Empirical Investigation of Market Structure, Efficiency, andPerformance in Property‐Liability Insurance. Journal of Risk and Insurance,2005,72(4):635～673
[203] Deng Y, Mcmillen D P, Sing T F. Private residential price indices in Singapore: A matchingapproach. Regional Science and Urban Economics,2012,42(3):485～494
[204] Bean L H. Discussion of Mr. Court’s Paper on Hedonic Price Indexes. The Dynamics ofAutomobile Demand, New York: General Motors Corporation,1939:118～119
[205] Bailey M J, Muth R F, Nourse H O. A regression method for real estate price indexconstruction. Journal of the American Statistical Association,1963,58(304):933～942
[206] Pedersen T M. The Hodrick–Prescott filter, the Slutzky effect, and the distortionary effect offilters. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,2001,25(8):1081～1101
②资料来源：北京晚报，2009年7月1日第7版。
③资料来源：钱江晚报，2012年2月23日第B4版。
②见《国务院关于加强国有土地使用权有偿出让收入管理的通知》（[1989]国发38号）
③摘自2011年5月前国务院总理朱镕基在清华大学经济与管理学院多功能报告厅的讲话。
①见《闲置土地处置办法》(中华人民共和国国土资源部部令[2002第53号])
①本章部分内容形成的学术论文《开发商市场势力对交易溢价的影响:来自北京的证据》，发表于《系统工程理论与实践》2013年第4期；部分内容形成的学术论文《ANewApproach for Constructing Home PriceIndices in China: The Pseudo Repeat Sales Model》正在《Journal of Housing Economics》进行同行评审。
①后经整理形成《邓小平关于建筑业的一次重要谈话》。
①见《关于中外合营企业建设用地的暂行规定》（国发[1980]201号）第一条。
①数据来源：北京市统计局网站年度数据资料。
③假设的依据为《关于进一步加强土地出让收支管理的通知》（财综[2009]74号）。假设所有土地出让金在交易后1年内付清，则1月至12月所有合同金额的50%即为当年支付金额的期望。
④数据来源：北京市土地整理储备中心网站。
①数据来源：国家统计局；财政部《关于各年度中央和地方预算执行情况与各年度中央和地方预算草案的报告（2011）》
①本章部分内容形成的学术论文《政府土地供应决策中等待期权的实证检验》，宣讲于世界华人不动产学会2011年年会，录用于《系统工程理论与实践》，将于2013年第10期刊出。
[1] Deng, Yongheng, Joseph Gyourko, Jing Wu. Land and house price measurement in China, inProperty markets and financial stability, Heath A., Packer F. and Windsor C. eds., Bank ofInternational Settlement and Reserve Bank of Australia,2012.
[2]李稻葵.论限购.新财富,2011,(3):30～34
[3]李祎恒.住房分配机制中限购令政策的法经济学解析.法学论坛,2011,26(3):106～111
[4]王思锋,彭兴庭.论中国房地产市场的政府规制——兼评“房屋限购令”的合法性.西北大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2011,5:148～153
[5]张双长,李稻葵.“二次房改”的财政基础分析——基于土地财政与房地产价格关系的视角.财政研究,2010,7:4
[6]左翔,殷醒民.土地一级市场垄断与地方公共品供给.经济学季刊,2013,12(2):693～718
[7]周彬,杜两省.“土地财政”与房地产价格上涨;理论分析和实证研究[J].财贸经济,2010,8:20
[8]贾康,刘微.“土地财政”:分析及出路——在深化财税改革中构建合理,规范,可持续的地方“土地生财”机制.财政研究,2012,(1):2～9
[9]张燕君,侯远志,杜文龙.土地制度与“土地财政”对房价上涨的影响及平抑对策.理论导刊,2012,2:4
[10] Sagalyn L B, Sternlieb G. Zoning and housing costs: the impact of land-use controls onhousing price Center for Urban Policy Research, Rutgers University New Brunswick, NJ,1972
[11] Pollakowski H O, Wachter S M. The effects of land-use constraints on housing prices. LandEconomics,1990,66(3):315～324
[12] Peng R, Wheaton W C. Effects of restrictive land supply on housing in Hong Kong: aneconometric analysis Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University,1993
[13] Chau K W, Wong S K, Yiu C Y, et al. Do unexpected land auction outcomes bring newinformation to the real estate market? The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,2010,40(4):480～496
[14]任超群.土地出让价格信号对房价的影响研究:[杭州:浙江大学,2011
[15]任超群,张娟锋,贾生华.土地出让价格信号对区域新建商品住宅价格的影响. ChinaLand Science,2011,25(7)
[16] Alonso W. Location and land use. Toward a general theory of land rent. Location and land use.Toward a general theory of land rent.,1964
[17] Muth R F. The demand for non-farm housing: The Demand for Durable Goods. Harberger A C.Chicago: University of Chicago Press,1960
[18] Mills E S. An aggregative model of resource allocation in a metropolitan area. The AmericanEconomic Review,1967,57(2):197～210
[19] Titman S. Urban Land Prices Under Uncertainty. The American Economic Review,1985,75(3):505～514
[20] Quigg L. Empirical Testing of Real Option-Pricing Models. The Journal of Finance,1993,48(2):621～640
[21] Williams J T. Equilibrium and options on real assets. Review of Financial Studies,1993,6(4):825～850
[22] Potepan M J. Explaining intermetropolitan variation in housing prices, rents and land prices.Real Estate Economics,1996,24(2):219～245
[23]刘琳,刘洪玉.地价与房价关系的经济学分析.数量经济技术经济研究,2003,(007):27～30
[24] Tsoukis C, Alyousha A. Implications of intertemporal optimization for house and land prices.Applied Economics,1999,31(12):1565～1571
[25] Ooi J T, Lee S. Price Discovery between residential land&housing markets. Journal ofHousing Research,2004,15(2):95～112
[26]宋勃,高波.房价与地价关系的因果检验:1998-2006.当代经济科学,2007,29(001):72～77
[27]黄健柏,江飞涛,陈伟刚.对我国房价与地价相互关系的再检验.预测,2007,26(002):1～7
[28]严金海.中国的房价与地价:理论,实证和政策分析.数量经济技术经济研究,2006,23(001):17～26
[29]况伟大.房价与地价关系研究:模型及中国数据检验.财贸经济,2005,(011):56～63
[30]郭晓旸,刘洪玉,郑思齐.异质性对新建商品住房市场交易速度的影响——来自北京市的微观证据.城市发展研究,2012,6:22
[31] Newell G, Tan Y K. The development and performance of listed property trust futures. PacificRim Property Research Journal,2004,10(2):132～145
[32] Mcgill B J. Real estate derivative securities and method for trading them,2004
[33]赵冈,陈钟毅.中国土地制度史新星出版社,2006.
[34] von Thünen J H, Hall P. Von Thünen's Isolated State: An English Version of Der IsolierteStaat... Pergamon Press,1966
[35] Muth R F. CITIES AND HOUSING; THE SPATIAL PATTERN OF URBANRESIDENTIAL LAND USE.,1969
[36] Mieszkowski P, Mills E S. The causes of metropolitan suburbanization. The Journal ofEconomic Perspectives,1993,7(3):135～147
[37] Mills E S, Lubuele L S. Inner cities. Journal of Economic Literature,1997,35(2):727～756
[38] Anas A, Arnott R, Small K A. Urban spatial structure,1997
[39] Glaeser E L, Kahn M E. Sprawl and urban growth. Handbook of regional and urbaneconomics,2004,4:2481～2527
[40] Zheng S, Fu Y, Liu H. Housing-choice hindrances and urban spatial structure: Evidence frommatched location and location-preference data in Chinese cities. Journal of Urban Economics,2006,60(3):535～557
[41] Zheng S, Fu Y, Liu H. Demand for urban quality of living in China: Evolution incompensating land-rent and wage-rate differentials. The Journal of Real Estate Finance andEconomics,2009,38(3):194～213
[42] Zheng S, Kahn M E. Land and residential property markets in a booming economy: Newevidence from Beijing. Journal of Urban Economics,2008,63(2):743～757
[43] Black F, Scholes M. The pricing of options and corporate liabilities. Journal of PoliticalEconomy,1973,81(3):637～654
[44] Merton R C. Theory of rational option pricing. The Bell Journal of Economics andManagement Science,1973:141～183
[45] Cox J C, Ross S A, Rubinstein M. Option Pricing: A Simplified Approach. Journal ofFinancial Economic,1979,7(3):229～263
[46] Titman S. Urban Land Prices Under Uncertainty. The American Economic Review,1985,75(3):505～514
[47] Cheng Y, Clark S. Real Option Model of Real Estate Development with Entitlement Risk.Available at SSRN2140213,2012
[48] Mcdonald R, Siegel D. The Value of Waiting to Invest. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1986,101(4)
[49] Abel A B, Dixit A K, Eberly J C, et al. Options, the value of capital, and investment. Thequarterly Journal of economics,1996,111(3):753～777
[50] Bernanke B S. Irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment. The Quarterly Journal ofEconomics,1983,98(1):85～106
[51] Williams J T. Real Estate Development as an Option. Journal of Real Estate Finance andEconomics,1991,4(2):191～208
[52] Capozza D R, Helsley R W. The Stochastic City. Journal of Urban Economics,1990,28(2):187～203
[53] Capozza D, Li Y. The Intensity and Timing of Investment: The Case of Land. AmericanEconomic Review,1994,84(4):889～904
[54]赫尔.期权,期货和其他衍生品/Options, Futures, and other derivativesTsinghua UniversityPress,2006.
[55] Jud G D, Seaks T G, Winkler D T. Time on the market: the impact of residential brokerage.Journal of Real Estate Research,1996,12:447～458
[56] Bulan L, Mayer C, Somerville C T. Irreversible investment, real options, and competition:Evidence from real estate development. Journal of Urban Economics,2009,65(3):237～251
[57] Cunningham C R. House price uncertainty, timing of development, and vacant land prices:Evidence for real options in Seattle. Journal of Urban Economics,2006,59(1):1～31
[58] Holland A, Ott S, Riddiough T. The Role of Uncertainty in Investment: An Examination ofCompeting Investment Models Using Commercial Real Estate Data. Real Estate Economics,2000,28(1):33～64
[59] Sing T F, Patel K. Evidence of Irreversibility in the UK Property Market. The QuartelyReview of Economics and Finance,2001,41(3):313～334
[60] Yamazaki R. Empirical Testing of Real Option Pricing Models Using Land Price Index inJapan. Journal of Property Investment&Finance,2001,19(1):53～72
[61]唐建立,陆龙坤.实物期权方法在房地产投资项目评估中的运用.重庆工学院学报,2002,16(6):12～15
[62]李济民,左立.房地产投资决策中的实物期权分析方法.重庆建筑大学学报,2004,26(115-118)
[63]项盛辉,何芳.实物期权方法在房地产开发中的应用.建筑管理现代化,2002,(2):43～46
[64]游达明,徐鸣.基于复合期权的土地储备估值模型研究.价值工程,2008,2008(7):35～37
[65]曾力勇,裘亚峥.房地产开发项目三阶段投资决策的实物期权模型研究.长沙理工大学学报(社会科学版),2005,20(2):56～59
[66]赵永生,张文娟,屠梅曾.基于多资产期权的土地资源组合开发优化研究.中国人口·资源与环境,2006,16(6):108
[67]高平,黄安永.基于实物期权定价模型的房地产投资决策的研究.东南大学学报（哲学社会科学版）,2005,2005(12):117～119
[68]曾力勇,陈收,裘亚峥.商品房价格不确定条件下房地产企业投资决策的期权模型研究.经济管理,2007,29(12):56～61
[69]刘涛,刘丽霞.基于实物期权的土地转化开发决策研究.数学的实践与认识,2009,39(13):56～64
[70]王媛,贾生华.不确定性,实物期权与政府土地供应决策:来自杭州的证据.世界经济,2012,(3):125～145
[71]王媛,贾生华,张凌.土地投资决策的实物期权理论评述.中国土地科学,2010,24(9):76～80
[72]郭晓旸,刘洪玉.政府土地出让中的实物期权特征.(已被系统工程理论与实践录用)
[73] Miron J R. Demographic and economic factors in housing demand. House, Home, andCommunity: Progress in Housing Canadians,1945,1986:22～40
[74] Haar C M. Zoning for Minimum Standards: The Wayne Township Case. Harv. L. Rev.,1952,66:1051
[75] Nolan V, Horack F E. How Small a House?: Zoning for Minimum Space Requirements.Harvard Law Review,1954,67(6):967～986
[76] Mark J H, Goldberg M A. A study of the impacts of zoning on housing values over time.Journal of Urban Economics,1986,20(3):257～273
[77] Dowall D E, Landis J D. Land‐Use Controls and Housing Costs: An Examination of SanFrancisco Bay Area Communities*. Real Estate Economics,1982,10(1):67～93
[78] Katz L, Rosen K T. The interjurisdictional effects of growth controls on housing prices.Journal of Law and Economics,1987,30(1):149～160
[79] Bramley G. Explaining the puzzles in policy change: local finance reform in Britain. Journalof Public Policy,1990,10(1):45～65
[80] Glaeser E L, Gyourko J, Saks R. Why is Manhattan so expensive? Regulation and the rise inhouse prices,2003
[81] Quigley J M, Rosenthal L A. The Effects of Land Use Regulation on the Price of Housing:What do we know? What can we learn? Cityscape,2005:69～137
[82] Ho W K, Ganesan S. On land supply and the price of residential housing. Netherlands Journalof Housing and the Built Environment,1998,13(4):439～452
[83] Raymond Y C. Housing price, land supply and revenue from land sales. Urban Studies,1998,35(8):1377～1392
[84] Hui E C. An empirical study of the effects of land supply and lease conditions on the housingmarket: A case of Hong Kong. Property Management,2004,22(2):127～154
[85] Hannah L, Kim K, Mills E S. Land use controls and housing prices in Korea. Urban Studies,1993,30(1):147～156
[86] Yunnan H Z. Effects of urban land supply policy on real estate in China: An econometricanalysis. Journal of Real Estate Literature,2008,16(1):55～72
[87]任荣荣,刘洪玉.土地供应对住房价格的影响机理——对北京市的实证研究.价格理论与实践,2007,(10):40～41
[88]王松涛,刘洪玉.土地供应政策对住房供给与住房价格的影响研究.土木工程学报,2009,10:116～121
[89]黄静,王洪卫.土地供给方式对房价的影响研究——基于面板误差修正模型的实证分析.上海财经大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2012,14(004):90～97
[90] Clauretie T M, Thistle P D. The Effect of Time-on-Market and Location on Search Costs andAnchoring: The Case of Single-Family Properties. The Journal of Real Estate Finance andEconomics,2007,35(2):181～196
[91] Case K E, Shiller R J. Prices of single family homes since1970: New indexes for four cities,1987
[92] Case K E, Shiller R J. The efficiency of the market for single-family homes,1989
[93] Gatzlaff D H, Tirtiro lu D. Real estate market efficiency: issues and evidence. Journal of RealEstate Literature,1995,3(2):157～189
[94] Clayton J. Further evidence on real estate market efficiency. Journal of Real Estate Research,1998,15(1):41～57
[95]郑思齐,刘洪玉.房地产市场有效性研究——以北京和上海为例.商业研究,2006,(007):191～195
[96]任荣荣,郑思齐,龙奋杰.预期对房价的作用机制:对35个大中城市的实证研究.经济问题探索,2008,1:145～148
[97] Anglin P M. Value and liquidity under changing market conditions. Journal of HousingEconomics,2006,15(4):293～304
[98] Blank D M, Winnick L. The Structure of the Housing Market. The Quarterly Journal ofEconomics,1953,67(2):181～208
[99] Fisher J, Gatzlaff D, Geltner D, et al. Controlling for the impact of variable liquidity incommercial real estate price indices. Real Estate Economics,2003,31(2):269～303
[100] Hartzell D J, Mengden A. Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts–Are They Stocks or RealEstate? New York: Solomon Bros. Inc., August,1987
[101] Myer N F, Webb J R, He L T. Issues in measuring performance of commingled real estatefunds. Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management,1997,3(2):79～85
[102] Barkham R, Geltner D. Price discovery in American and British property markets. Real EstateEconomics,1995,23(1):21～44
[103] Newell G, Chau K W. Linkages between direct and indirect property performance in HongKong. Journal of Property Finance,1996,7(4):9～29
[104] Chau K W, Macgregor B D, Schwann G M. Price discovery in the Hong Kong real estatemarket. Journal of Property Research,2001,18(3):187～216
[105] Ching S, Fu Y. Contestability of the urban land market: an event study of Hong Kong landauctions. Regional Science and Urban Economics,2003,33(6):695～720
[106] Geltner D, Macgregor B D, Schwann G M. Appraisal smoothing and price discovery in realestate markets. Urban Studies,2003,40(5-6):1047～1064
[107] Ooi J T, Sirmans C F. The wealth effects of land acquisition. The Journal of Real EstateFinance and Economics,2004,29(3):277～294
[108] Maurice K S, Pretorius F I, Chau K W. Market sentiments, winner’s curse and biddingoutcome in land auctions. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,2011,42(3):247～274
[109] Fortura P, Kushner J. Canadian Inter‐City House Price Differentials. Real Estate Economics,1986,14(4):525～536
[110] Manning C A. Explaining intercity home price differences. The Journal of Real Estate Financeand Economics,1989,2(2):131～149
[111] Dipasquale D, Wheaton W C. The markets for real estate assets and space: a conceptualframework. Real Estate Economics,1992,20(2):181～198
[112]宋勃,刘建江.房价与地价关系的理论分析与中国经验的实证检验:1998-2007.中央财经大学学报,2009,(9):60～66
[113]王岳龙,张瑜.基于中国省级面板数据的房价与地价关系研究.山西财经大学学报,2010,(001):50～57
[114]高波,毛丰付.房价与地价关系的实证检验:1999-2002.产业经济研究,2003,3(19): l
[115]郑娟尔,吴次芳.地价与房价的因果关系.中国土地科学,2006,20(6)
[116]郝寿义,王旺平.我国房价与地价关系的动态研究.经济问题,2012,(009):52～56
[117] Guerrieri V, Hartley D, Hurst E. Endogenous gentrification and housing price dynamics.Journal of Public Economics,2013,101(4)
[118] Tiebout C M. A pure theory of local expenditures. The journal of political economy,1956,64(5):416～424
[119] Oates W E. The effects of property taxes and local public spending on property values: Anempirical study of tax capitalization and the Tiebout hypothesis. The Journal of PoliticalEconomy,1969,77(6):957～971
[120] Oates W E. The effects of property taxes and local public spending on property values: a replyand yet further results. The Journal of Political Economy,1973,81(4):1004～1008
[121] Oates W E. Local property taxation: An assessment. Land Lines,1999,11(3):1～3
[122]贾生华,温海珍.房地产特征价格模型的理论发展及其应用.外国经济与管理,2004,26(5):42～44
[123] Zheng S, Kahn M E. Does Government Investment in Local Public Goods Spur Gentrification?Evidence from Beijing. Real Estate Economics,2012
[124] Gibbons S, Machin S. Valuing school quality, better transport, and lower crime: evidence fromhouse prices. Oxford Review of Economic Policy,2008,24(1):99～119
[125]郑思齐.城市经济的空间结构:居住,就业及其衍生问题清华大学出版社,2012.
[126]王姗,王琼.北京二手房市场研究报告.中国建设信息,2011,(003):16～19
[127]邓念.政府作用下的中国房地产市场理论与实证研究:[博士学位论文].上海:复旦大学,2010
[128] Blank D M, Winnick L. The Structure of the Housing Market. The Quarterly Journal ofEconomics,1953,67(2):181～208
[129] Olsen E O. A Competitive Theory of the Housing Market. The American Economic Review,1969,59(4):612～622
[130] Gau G W. Weak form tests of the efficiency of real estate investment markets. FinancialReview,1984,19(4):301～320
[131]段芳.房地产市场有效性的理论与实证研究:[上海:华东师范大学,2011
[132]成思危.中国城镇住房制度改革:目标模式与实施难点民主与建设出版社,1999.
[133]陈伯庚,顾志敏,陆开和.城镇住房制度改革的理论与实践上海人民出版社,2003.
[134]陈艳萍,赵民.我国城镇住房制度改革及政策调控回顾与思考——基于经济,社会,空间发展的综合视角.城市规划,2012,(12):19～27
[135]陈杰.制度经济学视角下的中国住房制度变迁分析.社会科学辑刊,2010,(006):104～108
[136]吴次芳,靳相木.中国土地制度改革三十年科学出版社,2009.
[137]柴永强.城市土地管理制度改革:2009
[138] Muth R F. The demand for non-farm housing: The Demand for Durable Goods. Harberger A C.Chicago: University of Chicago Press,1960
[139] Olsen E O. A Competitive Theory of the Housing Market. The American Economic Review,1969,59(4):612～622
[140] Goodman A C, Thibodeau T G. Housing market segmentation and hedonic predictionaccuracy. Journal of Housing Economics,2003,12(3):181～201
[141] Berry B. Ghetto expansion and single-family housing prices: Chicago,1968-1972. Journal ofUrban Economics,1976,3(4):397～423
[142] Kain J F, Quigley J M. Housing markets and racial discrimination: A microeconomic analysisNational Bureau of Economic Research,1975
[143] Demsetz H. Two systems of belief about monopoly': Industrial Concentration: The NewLearning. Goldschmid H J, Mann H M, Weston J F. Boston: Little, Brown,1974,164～184
[144] Straszheim M. Hedonic estimation of housing market prices: A further comment. The Reviewof Economics and Statistics,1974,56(3):404～406
[145] Palm R. Spatial Segmentation of the Urban Housing Market. Economic Geography,1978,54(3):210～221
[146]况伟大.空间竞争,房价收入比与房价.财贸经济,2004,(7):79～86
[147]李宏瑾.我国房地产市场垄断程度研究——勒纳指数的测算.财经问题研究,2005,(3):3～10
[148] Adelman M A. The measurement of industrial concentration. The Review of Economics andStatistics,1951,33(4):269～296
[149] Collins N R, Preston L E. The size structure of the largest industrial firms,1909-1958. TheAmerican Economic Review,1961,51(5):986～1011
[150] Saving T R. Concentration Ratios and the Degree of Monopoly. International EconomicReview,1970,11(1):139～146
[151] Shephard W G. Trends of concentration in American manufacturing industries,1947-1958.The Review of Economics and Statistics,1964,46(2):200～212
[152] Hannan T H. Market share inequality, the number of competitors, and the HHI: anexamination of bank pricing. Review of Industrial Organization,1997,12(1):23～35
[153] Kim W S, Lyn E O. Excess market value, the multinational corporation, and Tobin's q-ratio.Journal of International Business Studies,1986,17(1):119～125
[154] Lerner A P. The Concept of Monopoly and the Measurement of Monopoly Power. TheReview of Economic Studies,1934,1(3):157～175
[155] Rothschild K W. The degree of monopoly. Economica,1942,9(33):24～39
[156] Appelbaum E. The estimation of the degree of oligopoly power. Journal of Econometrics,1982,19(2-3):287～299
[157] Bhuyan S, Lopez R A. Oligopoly power in the food and tobacco industries. American Journalof Agricultural Economics,1997,79(3):1035～1043
[158] Schroeter J R. Estimating the degree of market power in the beef packing industry. TheReview of Economics and Statistics,1988,70(1):158～162
[159]曼昆, Mankiw N. Gregory,梁小民.经济学原理: Principles of economics机械工业出版社,2003.
[160]王利.北京房地产市场供求关系和价格机制作用的实证研究.经济与管理研究,2008,5:37
[161] Yang S X, Yavas A. Bigger is not Better: Brokerage and Time on the Market. Journal of RealEstate Research,1995,10(1):23～33
[162] Fama E F. Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. Journal of finance,1970,25(2):383～417
[163] Jensen M C. Some anomalous evidence regarding market efficiency. Journal of FinancialEconomics,1978,6(2/3):95～101
[164] Grossman S J, Stiglitz J E. On the impossibility of informationally efficient markets. TheAmerican Economic Review,1980,70(3):393～408
[165] Fama E F. The behavior of stock-market prices. Journal of business,1965,38(1):34～105
[166] Roberts H. Statistical versus clinical prediction of the stock market,1967
[167] Fisher J, Geltner D, Pollakowski H. A quarterly transactions-based index of institutional realestate investment performance and movements in supply and demand. The Journal of RealEstate Finance and Economics,2007,34(1):5～33
[168] Guo X, Zheng S, Geltner D, et al. A New Approach for Constructing Home Price Indices inChina: The Pseudo Repeat Sales Model. Available at SSRN2127336,2012
[169] Quigley J M. A simple hybrid model for estimating real estate price indexes. Journal ofHousing Economics,1995,4(1):1～12
[170] Bokhari S, Geltner D. Estimating real estate price movements for high frequency tradableindexes in a scarce data environment. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,2012:1～22
[171] Ching S, Fu Y. Contestability of the urban land market: an event study of Hong Kong landauctions. Regional Science and Urban Economics,2003,33(6):695～720
[172] Chau K W, Wong S K, Yiu C Y, et al. Do unexpected land auction outcomes bring newinformation to the real estate market? The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,2010,40(4):480～496
[173] Haurin D. The duration of marketing time of residential housing. Real Estate Economics,1988,16(4):396～410
[174] Anglin P M, Rutherford R, Springer T M. The trade-off between the selling price of residentialproperties and time-on-the-market: The impact of price setting. The Journal of Real EstateFinance and Economics,2003,26(1):95～111
[175] Case B, Pollakowski H O, Wachter S M. On choosing among house price index methodologies.Real estate economics,1991,19(3):286～307
[176] Zuehlke T W. Duration dependence in the housing market. The Review of Economics andStatistics,1987,69(4):701～709
[177] Grovenstein R A, Kau J B, Munneke H J. Development value: A real options approach usingempirical data. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,2011,43(3):321～335
[178] Trigeorgis L. Real Options. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press,1996
[179] Demyanyk Y, Van Hemert O. Understanding the subprime mortgage crisis. Review ofFinancial Studies,2011,24(6):1848～1880
[180] Ding W, Zheng S, Guo X. Value of Access to Jobs and Amenities: Evidence from NewResidential Properties in Beijing. Tsinghua Science and Technology,2010,5:18
[181] Rosen S. Hedonic prices and implicit markets: product differentiation in pure competition. Thejournal of political economy,1974,82(1):34～55
[182] Smith B A, Tesarek W P. House prices and regional real estate cycles: Market adjustments inHouston. Real Estate Economics,1991,19(3):396～416
[183] Case K E, Shiller R. A Decade of Boom and Bust in the Prices of Single Family Homes:Boston and Los Angeles. New England Economic Review,1994
[184] Monkkonen P, Wong K, Begley J. Economic restructuring, urban growth, and short-termtrading: The spatial dynamics of the Hong Kong housing market,1992–2008. RegionalScience and Urban Economics,2012,42(3):396～406
[185] Case K E, Mayer C J. Housing price dynamics within a metropolitan area. Regional Scienceand Urban Economics,1996,26(3):387～407
[186]刘洪玉,郭晓旸,姜沛言.房产税制度改革中的税负公平性问题.清华大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2012,27(6):18～26
[187] Genesove D, Mayer C. Loss aversion and seller behavior: Evidence from the housing market.The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2001,116(4):1233～1260
[188] Camerer C, Ho T, Chong K. Models of thinking, learning, and teaching in games. AmericanEconomic Review,2003,93(2):192～195
[189] Tversky A, Kahneman D. Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Choice. Science,1974,211:453～458
[190] Tversky A, Kahneman D. The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science,1981,211(4481):453
[191] Kahneman D, Tversky A. Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica:Journal of the Econometric Society,1979:263～291
[192] Camerer C F, Loewenstein G, Rabin M. Advances in behavioral economics PrincetonUniversity Press,2011
[193]关涛.周期性波动的房地产市场：基于行为经济学的分析太原:山西经济出版社,2008.
[194] Rabin M. Risk aversion and expected‐utility theory: A calibration theorem. Econometrica,2000,68(5):1281～1292
[195] Shefrin H. Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology ofInvesting. New York: Oxford University Press,2002
[196] Kahneman D, Knetsch J L, Thaler R H. Experimental tests of the endowment effect and theCoase theorem. Journal of political Economy,1990:1325～1348
[197] Cleves M A, Gould W W, Gutierrez R G. An introduction to survival analysis using StataStata Corp,2008
[198] Rhys H, Song J, Jindrichovska I. The Timing of Real Option Excercise: Some RecentDevelopment. The Engineering Economist,2002,47(4):436～450
[199]杨志勇.地方债启动之配套条件研究.地方财政研究,2009,4:4～8
[200] Ermisch J F, Findlay J, Gibb K. The price elasticity of housing demand in Britain: issues ofsample selection. Journal of Housing Economics,1996,5(1):64～86
[201] Maudos J. Market structure and performance in Spanish banking using a direct measure ofefficiency. Applied Financial Economics,1998,8(2):191～200
[202] Choi B P, Weiss M A. An Empirical Investigation of Market Structure, Efficiency, andPerformance in Property‐Liability Insurance. Journal of Risk and Insurance,2005,72(4):635～673
[203] Deng Y, Mcmillen D P, Sing T F. Private residential price indices in Singapore: A matchingapproach. Regional Science and Urban Economics,2012,42(3):485～494
[204] Bean L H. Discussion of Mr. Court’s Paper on Hedonic Price Indexes. The Dynamics ofAutomobile Demand, New York: General Motors Corporation,1939:118～119
[205] Bailey M J, Muth R F, Nourse H O. A regression method for real estate price indexconstruction. Journal of the American Statistical Association,1963,58(304):933～942
[206] Pedersen T M. The Hodrick–Prescott filter, the Slutzky effect, and the distortionary effect offilters. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,2001,25(8):1081～1101
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |